NBA DFS Projections Preview: October 24
NBA opening day is finally here! After an offseason full of player and coaching changes, the most hyped draft prospect since LeBron James, and all the drama the NBA brings off the court, it’s back to the grind of NBA DFS that we all love. I wish we had a bigger slate to get our feet wet again, but two games will have to do, and at least it’s two great matchups between LAL/DEN and PHO/GSW.
The defending champs, Denver, kick off the slate at 7:30 PM ET, with MVP runner-up Nikola Jokic ready to start his next MVP campaign with a bang against LeBron and company. At 10:00 PM ET, we get an awesome nightcap, with Kevin Durant and newly acquired Bradley Beal & Jusuf Nurkic facing a Warriors team ready to test out the Chris Paul / Stephen Curry guard duo.
Let’s check out the injuries that will affect this slate, along with some of my favorite DFS plays!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- (Update: Green is OUT) – Draymond Green is questionable with an ankle injury, and the most recent update from the man himself stated, “I do feel good. I don’t feel all the way 100% myself, but I’m getting there.” With the bigger picture being much more important for the Warriors’ championship goals, I’m kind of expecting Green to sit out unless he’s truly 100% by tip-off, which doesn’t seem to be the case. If Green is out, I’d expect Kevon Looney to start at center, while Jonathan Kuminga would be a much more appealing play, along with guys like Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson.
- Jarred Vanderbilt is out with a heel injury for the Lakers, so all of the available forwards will absorb his minutes. Taurean Prince will benefit the most as the starter for him, but all of Anthony Davis, Christian Wood, and Rui Hachimura will get minutes boosts until Vanderbilt plays.
- Bradley Beal is out with lower back soreness, so we should see either Eric Gordon or Grayson Allen start for him with Booker at PG, or they may go with Jordan Goodwin at PG. Overall this makes Booker and Durant more appealing spend ups with less usage competition on offense.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes, as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Warriors are going to be very versatile with potential starting lineups based on nightly matchups, with Looney likely moving in and out of the starting lineup based on the pace of the opponent. I’m expecting Chris Paul to start alongside Curry to begin the year, but I could see them moving Paul to a 6th man role if the bench struggles to score early in the year. Kuminga is another versatile SF/PF that could see spot starts if Klay, Wiggins, or Green need nights off. With Draymond out today we’ll likely see Looney start at the five.
- With Vanderbilt likely out Taurean Prince will start at SF, but he’s still a risky value play that will be the 5th scoring option in the starting group, but he could pay off his super cheap price if he can get a few peripheral stats along with a few buckets. If Vanderbilt is out for longer than this game and Prince doesn’t impress right away, I could easily see the Lakers going with Hachimura as a starter over him.
- Booker was questionable but has since said he is playing, while Beal will be out. I’m expecting Eric Gordon to start at SG with Booker at PG, but wouldn’t be surprised if Allen got the start or even Goodwin.
- The Nuggets look almost identical as last year, with the same starting lineup and most of the same bench options. Christian Braun and Zeke Nnaji will look to make big leaps after strong seasons last year, and 1st round draft pick Julian Strawther could be in the mix for rotation minutes right away.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Aaron Gordon ($5,700) is our top p/$ play, which makes sense at a 32-minute projection at a PF position loaded with top heavy guys like Davis, Durant, and LeBron. Michael Porter ($6,000) is another top p/$ play that should see similar minutes and can be played at either SF or PF.
- DAngelo Russell ($6,200) is our top p/$ PG play, as he’s almost $2k cheaper than any other viable cash game PG option (Paul at $8k). His backcourt partner Austin Reaves ($6,700) is another fantastic p/$ play at SG or SF, who will be a big piece in this Lakers’ team chances for a title run coming off a huge year a big pay day.
- Andrew Wiggins ($6,800) and Klay Thompson ($6,500) are solid mid-range targets with Wiggins my preferred play between the two. Jonathan Kuminga ($4,600) is absolutely in play for cash game value with Draymond out, as he should be looking at a solid 25+ minute floor today even off the bench.
- At center, I’ll likely be spending up on Nikola Jokic ($11,500), as I think he’s the highest upside play of the slate by a pretty wide margin, and our projections agree as he’s projected over 6 FP higher than the next highest player (Davis). If you absolutely need the salary savings for your favorite lineup, then Jusuf Nurkic ($7,500) is my next favorite p/$ center play.
- With Beal out now, whoever starts between Gordon, Allen, and Goodwin will be in play as a solid cash game value option. Josh Okogie ($4,300) is also looking like a very strong salary saver as well.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Chris Paul ($5,600) is an absolute steal on DraftKings compared to his $8k price on FanDuel, and he’s the first guy I’m locking into cash games.
- Russell ($6,000) is still a solid play but not as much of a value compared to FanDuel, while Austin Reaves ($6,100) is $600 cheaper and a great cash game play on both sites.
- Aaron Gordon ($5,700) and Michael Porter ($5,800) remain top p/$ plays at the forward positions, and Andrew Wiggins ($5,500) is only PF eligible but comes at a big $1,300 discount to his price on FanDuel.
- Jokic ($10,000) is still the clear top center play, with Jusuf Nurkic ($6,300) remaining my second favorite p/$ center target.
- With Beal out now, whoever starts between Gordon, Allen, and Goodwin will be in play as a solid cash game value option. Josh Okogie ($4,000) is also looking like a strong value play as well.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!