NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 3/28/2022
Hope everyone had a better weekend than Chris Rock and is ready to slap this crazy nine-game slate into submission as it’s going to be a fun one full of blowouts, tank jobs, short rosters, and likely massive DFS scores. The Hornets, Knicks, Celtics, and Warriors are on a back-to-back and we already have big news with the latter two teams. Eight of the nine games start at 8PM or earlier with the night culminating in possibly the most depleted roster matchup in NBA history with OKC and POR facing off in an island 10PM game with 19 combined players on their injury reports. Right now both teams are projected to have nine players available so don’t get too comfy on where you are in the leaderboards before 10PM as this game is certainly going to have some solid value plays and likely big performances.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Projections Preview – Monday, March 28th
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Seeing Boston as underdogs on NBA Starting Lineups means some big names are out which is the case as Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, and Robert Williams are all out for various reasons tonight. Marcus Smart is the lone usual starter available but It’s hard to trust he’ll get big minutes on the b2b so I will be looking more at Derrick White, Grant Williams, and Daniel Theis for value today with all likely to start.
Also on a b2b are the Warriors who are without Thompson, Green, and Porter for rest today which should give Moses Moody and Kevon Looney the starts. Jordan Poole is by far the safest Warrior to use with Andrew Wiggins next while Moody, Kuminga, and Looney should be fine value plays but all come with risky floors. Andre Iguodala is also on track to be available to help at the forward spots.
The Thunder and Trail Blazers already have a million guys out but tonight OKC will also be missing SGA and Darius Bazley while POR will be without Trendon Watford. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl should be back to help OKC with some PF/C minutes but all the starters are in play for DFS with Theo Maledon being my favorite for his price on every site. With Watford out Greg Brown is projected to start but he too is iffy with an eye abrasion so Drew Eubanks could be looking at huge minutes and usage as the only big man left available.
The Pacers are another team with a CVS-receipt-long injury report as Brogdon, Duarte, Brissett, Jackson and Washington are all out while Justin Anderson will sign another 10-day contract and is available for tonight.
With Suggs still out for Orlando look for RJ Hampton to continue to start while Caris LeVert should continue to start for Cleveland. The Heat have a few questionable guys but for now they’re all projected in and lastly Gary Trent will return for the Raptors tonight. This page is going to be changing a lot today so be sure to check the projected starters and confirmed lineups as we get more news throughout the day!
Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Looking at The Situation Room a lot of names are already out or doubtful but there are a handful of important questionable tags to monitor.
The first big name is Jaren Jackson dealing with right thigh soreness and with Ja Morant already out Jackson’s absence would give another nice usage bump to all of the starters with Brandon Clarke (also questionable), Kyle Anderson or Ziaire Williams likely starting. The Grizzlies are priced up a bit on both sites and there is some serious blowout risk against the Warriors (-10.5 spread right now) so I’m not too excited about locking in any Grizzlies right now but that might change if Jackson (and Clarke) sits.
The Hawks have Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic both questionable with both guys having pretty big usage impacts on the other starters. If Bogdanovic sits I will be much more happy to lock in Trae Young while Kevin Huerter, DeAndre Hunter, and Clint Capela all have pretty cheap prices especially on FanDuel and will all be in serious consideration especially if Gallinari also sits with Bogdan. Their opponent Indiana has Bitadze and Washington questionable with the former having any real DFS impact as Jalen Smith would likely start if Bitadze sits and is a fine mid-range play with little center depth behind him.
At 2:30PM EST the Rockets listed Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, and Dennis Shcroder as questionable which could make a Spurs blowout even more likely. If Wood sits look for Alperen Sengun to start and be a high-upside play while Mathews would likely start for Gordon and be a low-upside play. If Schroder sits we could see Nix join the rotation but mainly Porter, Green, and Christopher will get most of his minutes.
Lastly the Heat have Tyler Herro, PJ Tucker, and Gabe Vincent all questionable but it will take Herro and Tucker being ruled out for me to worry how it affects the Heat as Lowry, Butler, and Adebayo are the only Heat I ever really consider using unless Miami is seriously depleted which they currently are not. I mentioned Greg Brown earlier and if he’s out Portland will have 8 available and all the starters would be in play with Eubanks, Elleby and Johnson my favorite for the price in that order.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Starting with FanDuel we see a bunch of POR and OKC guys standing out as top value plays which is to be expected with how thin both teams are today. With Greg Brown likely out now Keon Johnson, CJ Elleby, and Drew Eubanks are my favorite Blazers to target and for OKC I’m locking in Theo Maledon at $4,900 and likely one of Tre Mann or Aleksej Pokusevski depending on positional needs while Aaron Wiggins, Vit Krejci, and Lindy Waters all have excellent prices but it’s anyone’s guess which of the three will be the best value. As mentioned previously four starting Celtics are out so Daniel Theis should start at C and is just too cheap at $3,800 for the likely 28+ minutes he’ll see along with Grant Williams at $4,200 while Derrick White will also likely start and is a great option at $5,400. Caris LeVert moved in to the starting lineup last game and saw over 36 minutes and at $4,900 in a great matchup with Orlando he should be one of the highest owned SG/SFs on FD. I also really like Andrew Wiggins at just $5,800 having to carry the offense with Poole today. Other cheap FanDuel names I’m considering include Donte DiVincenzo, Kevin Huerter, Ayo Dosunmu, OG Anunoby, and Aaron Gordon.
DraftKings will have a lot of the same guys I use on FanDuel starting with Theo Maledon ($4,500), Daniel Theis ($3,700), Derrick White ($5,300) and Caris LeVert ($5,600). Keon Johnson ($3,900) is a great value play likely to see over 30 minutes while Elleby is fine at $4,600 along with Eubanks at $7,100 but I prefer their prices on FD. Mann and Pokusevski have slight discounts on DK compared to FD so at least one of them will likely make my main DK build while Grant WIlliams is still squarely in play at $4,400. More DK guys I’m looking at include Lindy Waters, Vit Krejci, Ben McLemore, Jakob Poeltl, and Kevon Looney.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
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