NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/1/2022
Today is going to be jussssst a bit more hectic than yesterday with ten games on tap, four teams on back-to-backs, and Memphis with likely four starters sitting out. We’re still waiting for the injury reports for the Pistons, Clippers, Bucks, and Lakers who all played yesterday and each team is going to have some kind of big news with injuries that happened yesterday, guys sitting on the b2b, and a couple big names likely returning from injury in LeBron James and Anthony Davis (revenge game anyone?). We also get a rematch between the Kings and Rockets who had some absolutely monster individual performances when they faced off two days ago as well as a tank-off between the Thunder and Pistons so buckle up, pound some coffee or any other method of caffeine intake because you are going to need it today as the news and projections changes are going to be fast and furious right up until lock.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Projections Preview – Friday, April 1st
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
We have to start with Memphis for biggest news on NBA Starting Lineups as Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson, and Steven Adams are all doubtful and likely out tonight. We will almost certainly see DeAnthony Melton start and he should be one of the most popular plays today on every site while Xavier Tillman is also almost certainly starting at center and should be the top value-play on DK for just $3,100. We’re projecting Ziaire Williams and Kyle Anderson to start for now but I wouldn’t be surprised to see John Konchar, Brandon Clarke, or even Jarrett Culver find their way in to the starting five so make sure to double check the confirmed lineup and make any necessary swaps.
The next biggest lineup change is the Lakers who could get back LeBron James and Anthony Davis from their ankle and foot injuries respectively. Both seem likely to play if all goes well in their pre-game warmups but it is the last game of the night so there is some risk in locking either of them in and not having a late-swap plan if either don’t play. Assuming both do play it would make Westbrook pretty much unusable taking a big usage hit along with all the fringe guys in Monk, Johnson, Carmelo, Gabriel, and Reaves. We know LeBron can always break slates but if Davis is also active James won’t have as high of a ceiling and for $11k I will likely spend that somewhere else tonight. I wouldn’t expect Davis to see huge minutes his first game back either but if he is active and we don’t get any word of a low minutes restriction I think he has to be inconsideration for $7,600 on FanDuel.
The Clippers have ruled out Reggie Jackson, Paul George, Marcus Morris, and Nicolas Batum for rest on the b2b so they are left with just 8 available tonight and their starters will all be very popular tonight. We’re projecting Terance Mann, Luke Kennard, Amir Coffey, Robert Covington, and Ivica Zubac to start with Luke Kennard being my favorite play for the price as he’s under $4k on both sites. Amir Coffey has been out of the rotation of late but will be forced in to major minutes tonight and is also under $4k on both sites and is my next favorite Clippers play. Mann, Zubac, and Covington should all be fine plays and I would prioritize them in that order depending on your positional needs.
The Bucks have ruled out Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez for rest on the b2b so MIL/LAC is going to be an absolute value-fest as if we didn’t already have enough of it today. My favorite Bucks play today is Bobby Portis on FanDuel at just $5,000 and he is definitely still in play on DraftKings at $6,300. Hill, Allen, Matthews, Connaughton, and Nwora/Ibaka should all be looking at solid minutes but I will pick and choose who I use from that group depending on positional and salary needs per site.
The Thunder will remain without Tre Mann leaving them with just eight available again and Vit Krejci likely continuing to start while their opponents Detroit are without Marvin Bagley, Cory Joseph, and Kelly Olynyk so we should see Bey, Livers, and Key getting most of the forward minutes while Killian Hayes likely starts at PG.
For now we’re assuming Paul George will sit on the b2b and if so Terance Mann would likely start and we could see some other Clippers show up on their injury report. With Cameron Johnson and JaVale McGee likely returning for the Suns today its just making this matchup with Memphis even more lopsided and I don’t think I can trust any Phoenix guys to get full minutes or this game to stay close at all. Other starters hoping to return to the lineup today include Wendell Carter, Alperen Sengun, and Oshae Brissett.
Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
The Situation Room is going to be a very important tool to monitor throughout the day especially with the b2b teams’ injury reports likely adding a bunch of names to it throughout the day. I already touched on LeBron and AD who are closer to probable at the moment but we do have some other important names currently questionable.
Wendell Carter is iffy again with his wrist sprain and if out Chuma Okeke should draw the start. Okeke has really under-performed over his last three games scoring under 20 FP in each while seeing 25-35 minutes which is reflected in his price drop on both sites and I will strongly consider him on FD at $4,400 if Carter sits but with so much other value out there today he won’t be a must-play at all.
UPDATE: Carter is OUT
Alperen Sengun is still dealing with his leg contusion which kept him out last game and gave Usman Garuba the start at C. If Sengun remains out I wouldn’t be surprised if Bruno Fernando ended up getting the start after severely outperforming Garuba last game with double the fantasy points in three fewer minutes of action. JaeSean Tate was kind of a bust last game and his price went up $700 on DK still so I probably won’t be on him there tonight but his price dropped $100 on FD to $4,000 and I will certainly consider giving him another chance in this great matchup with the Kings and more so if Sengun sits. Kevin Porter and Jalen Green are squarely in play regardless of Sengun’s status.
The Pacers are listing Malcolm Brogdon, Goga Bitadze, Oshae Brissett, and Isaiah Jackson as questionable but for now we’re only considering the latter three as truly Q as Brogdon has shown no signs of actually playing so we are assuming he will be out until he actually plays a game. If Brissett or Bitadze sit I will consider Terry Taylor and will be much more happy to use him if all of the Indy Q guys end up out. Tyrese Haliburton remains the highest-upside and safest Pacer to use regardless who sits for them today.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Looking at FanDuel it’s no surprise to see Memphis guys dominating for value with Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, DeAnthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson all with p/$ projections above 6.65. Dillon Brooks could also be solid for $5,700 but with every other starter doubtful I think there is some risk in Brooks not getting big minutes especially with the likely blowout coming against Phoenix. For now Melton ($5,600) is my favorite play of the group with Tillman next at $4,300. I also really like Damian Jones for $5,300 as he just put up 56 FP in this same matchup two days ago and is still too cheap for that kind of upside and the same can be said for Davion Mitchell at $7,300. Kevin Porter ($7,900) and Theo Maledon ($6,400) are also a couple PGs with big time upside today and solid prices to consider today. Some other cheap FD plays I like include Tomas Satoransky ($4,700), Saddiq Bey ($5,600), CJ Elleby ($4,000), Rui Hachimura ($4,300), DAngelo Russell ($5,400), and Harrison Barnes ($5,300).
UPDATE: Bobby Portis ($5,000), Luke Kennard ($3,600), and Amir Coffey ($3,600) are in my group of favorite value plays on FD now after the MIL/LAC injury reports were released
On DraftKings I will be locking in DeAnthony Melton ($5,200), and Xavier Tillman ($3,100) and will likely have Damian Jones ($5,500) as well depending on how other news shakes out. With Cory Joseph out I’m loving Killian Hayes for $4,400 as the likely starter in a cake matchup with OKC while Cunningham and Bey will have to carry a lot of the offense with Bagley and Olynyk also out but I prefer their prices on FD. One Rocket I like way more on DK than FD is Bruno Fernando who is $1,200 cheaper at just $3,500 and would be a smash play if Sengun is out and he gets the start but should still be very solid off the bench. Davion Mitchell ($8,000) and Kevin Porter ($7,500) will also both be in strong consideration for my main build facing off in the best fantasy matchup of the night while JaeSean Tate ($5,200) is a bit too expensive for me compared to FD. Other value guys I’m considering on DK include Vit Krejci ($4,300), Lindy Waters ($4,200), Greg Brown ($4,200), Rui Hachimura ($4,500), and Tomas Satoransky ($4,400).
UPDATE: Bobby Portis ($6,300), Luke Kennard ($3,800), and Amir Coffey ($3,700) are some of my favorite DK plays now after the MIL/LAC injury reports were released
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn