NBA DFS Projections Preview | Optimizer Picks, Lineup Changes, Key Injuries For Tuesday
Today we have a tiny Tuesday four-game slate with no teams on a back-to-back but still plenty of news available and still more to come. It’s should be a friendly news day at least, as all four games tip off between 7 PM and 8 PM EST, so we should know everyone who’s in or out before lock. No matter what we can put our devices away at 8 PM and watch that movie we’ve been putting off with no fear of 18 more guys getting ruled out. Not today NBA, not today!
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
We have a big change with the first name in the first game we see on NBA Starting Lineups with Tyus Jones starting for Ja Morant. Morant is out with back soreness, so expect to see Jones start tonight and will be in pretty much every cash game lineup you see and most tournament teams too as he basically minimum price everywhere. Also in that game there’s PG news on the other side with Malcolm Brogdon in the lineup as he’s Q and could return today along with Duarte, Stephenson, and Bitadze.
Moving to the other 7PM game Kyrie Irving will be back in the lineup as it’s a road game while Seth Curry could return after missing last game with ankle soreness and Aldridge remains out. The Magic will be without Jalen Suggs (ankle), so look for RJ Hampton to start at SG and at almost minimum price is a decent value play.
In the 7:30PM game we see Isaiah Stewart back in the starting lineup as he is off the injury report and back from his knee injury which makes all the Pistons big men hard to trust, especially in a tough matchup with Miami who will get back Jimmy Butler from his toe injury. Caleb Martin will remain out with his knee hyperextension while Victor Oladipo is back after resting a game while Detroit will get back Killian Hayes and Rodney McGruder, but Diallo and Jackson remain out.
No changes for the Suns in the last game of the night as Paul and Johnson remain out while the Pelicans will get back CJ McCollum from health and safety protocols but Brandon Ingram will remain out. With McCollum back they could go a couple different ways with their starters with either Graham or Marshall likely back to the bench.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
The Situation Room is headlined by Ja Morant, Malcolm Brogdon, and Cade Cunningham along with some less important Q tags in Seth Curry, Chris Duarte, Lance Stephenson, Goga Bitadze, and Cam Thomas.
Running a CourtIQ with Morant off the floor we see Jaren Jackson getting a +5.1% usage increase taking him to a team-high 30.5%. and scoring a team-high 1.26 FPPM. He and Tyus Jones should be popular plays while I will also be looking at Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane who are 2nd and 3rd in team usage with Morant out.
UPDATE: Morant is officially OUT
If CJ McCollum gets cleared and plays I would consider using him on FanDuel where he’s about $1k cheaper than he is on DraftKings while Devonte Graham will only be in consideration on FanDuel for me as well and only if he starts. In general the Pelicans (except Herb Jones on FD) got priced up during McCollum’s absence and just don’t have the big upside anymore if McCollum returns, but if McCollum ends up out tonight then I will definitely be using 3-4 of them, especially on FD.
UPDATE: CJ McCollum is IN
The Pacers have four questionable players currently with Malcolm Brogdon being the most relevant. If Brogdon is available it will make Tyrese Haliburton harder to trust for a ceiling game and he’s very expensive now while Buddy Hield will also be much less appealing at over $7k on both sites. The other questionable guys aren’t too relevant unless Duarte and Stephenson get ruled out along with Brogdon which would leave all the Pacer’s starters in play with little depth behind them.
UPDATE: Brogdon, Duarte, and Stephenson are IN. Bitadze is OUT
Cade Cunningham was added as questionable midday with a non-covid illness and if out would leave the Pistons with 9 available (before any G-League call-ups). Killian Hayes will be back and would be looking at solid minutes with Cory Joseph at the PG spot along with Rodney McGruder who could start for Cade. Saddiq Bey and Jerami Grant are pretty cheap on both sites and would become the primary scoring options in the absence of Cunningham.
UPDATE: Cunningham is OUT
If Seth Curry doesn’t return from his ankle injury look for Patty Mills to start for him but doesn’t offer much upside with Kyrie Irving available today.
UPDATE: Curry and Thomas are OUT for the Nets. Dragic will start for Curry.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
FanDuel has an immediate couple of locks for me in Tyus Jones ($4,200) and Dillon Brooks ($5,000) who are way too cheap for their expected roles today with Morant likely out. Jaren Jackson at $6,400 is also looking like a top play while Desmond Bane at $6,600 has as high a ceiling as any Grizzlies player today. After Jones and Brooks I will probably only have one of Jackson and Bane depending on how other news shakes out today. Cole Anthony is also jumping out at me at just $5,800, especially with Jalen Suggs out as Anthony will have to handle the ball more. As mentioned previously RJ Hampton will start and at $3,700 he is a fine option for salary relief. Lastly Herbert Jones at $4,400 is still too cheap regardless of McCollum’s status as he should still see around 30 minutes. Other FanDuel plays I’m considering include Wendell Carter, Cade Cunningham, Kyle Lowry, Cameron Payne, and Jae Crowder.
Moving to DraftKings it’s the same story with Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks who are even bigger slam dunks at $3,400 and $4,900 while Jaren Jackson and Desmond Bane are pretty much the same price as FD and squarely in play too. Cole Anthony is $500 more expensive but still a reasonable price given his usage bump with no Suggs while Hampton is $300 cheaper than FD and still a fine value play. Herb Jones and the other Pelicans are priced just a bit too high with McCollum back but Naji Marshall and Jaxson Hayes have decent prices both under $5,500. Our model is liking Andre Drummond from a p/$ perspective, but he is just a bit too expensive for me and I’d rather pay up a bit for Wendell Carter, Bam Adebayo, Deandre Ayton, or Jaren Jackson instead. Other DK plays I’m looking at include Franz Wagner, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Markelle Fultz.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn