NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
To start the week we have an excellent eight-game slate with four teams on a back-to-back (HOU, UTA, DEN, and NYK) and one team resting pretty much all their stars (GSW), as well as a rematch between MIN and POR with a lot of injury news for both teams. I’m expecting some pretty insane scores across DFS today as the Warriors have already opened up so much value and most lineups should have at least three 60+ FP upside studs. A big key is going to be getting the Warriors value right as their game starts two hours after lock and there’s a lot of different ways they could go with their starting lineup so I would leave a little wiggle room for potential late swaps, especially on DK where you can order your team top-to-bottom by game lock time. Besides the Warriors there’s plenty of other news and injuries to monitor, but let’s start the process with what we know now and make sure to check back here for updates that I will include throughout the day.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
At the moment one team is the clear standout on NBA Starting Lineups with the Warriors projected to start all guys around $5,000 or less on both sites. Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins will rest today, while Green, Iguodala, Payton, and Wiseman all remain out so this will be the clear team to target for value. As mentioned above we probably won’t know the starting lineup until after lock, but it’s safe to assume Jordan Poole will definitely start and he will be a chalky “free square” in almost every lineup today. Jonathan Kuminga should be another popular play regardless if he starts or not as he sees the second highest usage rate with the available Warriors at 24.5%. Damion Lee is coming off two straight DNP-CDs but should start and see at least 30 minutes making him another solid value play. Otto Porter Jr. will also likely start and he is tied with Poole in FPPM in this spot at 1.35 making him another strong Warrior to use. Between Moses Moody, Kevon Looney, and Juan Toscano-Anderson (I’m not considering Bjelica, Chiozza, or Weatherspoon really) I’d go Looney, JTA, then Moody unless JTA starts and we can more safely assume he’d see 25+ minutes then he’d be my favorite of that group. There are definitely other value plays today and more that will open up as news happens so fading some popular Warriors in tournaments will be a great way to differentiate yourself, but for cash games they should be one of the first teams you start with.
UPDATE: Porter and Toscano-Anderson are now questionable so Lee, Moody, and Kuminga are my favorite Warriors after Poole right now.
The other team with big lineup changes is Portland who in addition to still missing Lillard, Nurkic, Winslow, Ingles, Little, and Bledsoe will also be without Anfernee Simons tonight leaving a huge void at the PG spot. It’s safe to assume Brandon Williams will fill that void as he is the last true point guard available for them and he has been playing great over the last four games averaging around 20 FPPG. If we assume he’ll see 30+ minutes he is a slam dunk value play under $4,000 on both sites. Josh Hart sat last game but will be back tonight and is an absolute steal on FanDuel at $6,000 as he will have to carry most of the offense for Portland to have any kind of chance this game. Keon Johnson, CJ Elleby, Trendon Watford, and Drew Eubanks are all still cheap and should all see big minutes and deciding between Warriors and Trail Blazers for value tonight is going to be very tough but very important as they will be the most popular options.
The Spurs are going to be without Devin Vassell, Lonnie Walker, and Keita Bates-Diop who are all doubtful while Dejounte Murray will be available after being questionable overnight so look for Joshua Primo to potentially start and split SG minutes with Josh Richardson. Dejounte Murray is over $11k on DK but has as high an upside as anyone today and is looking very appealing at under $10k on FD.
Jalen Brunson was ruled out at 12:30pm EST so look for Spencer Dinwiddie and Josh Green to pick up most of his minutes with one likely starting while Luka Doncic will handle the ball more and has an even higher ceiling than usual.
Other lineup notes include Garrison Mathews likely starting for Eric Gordon (b2b rest), Victor Oladipo returning and being available for a limit of 15 minutes, Onyeka Okongwu returning from his concussion, Jaden McDaniels likely continuing to start for Edwards, and Luka Doncic / Mike Conley returning from their one game absences.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Looking at The Situation Room today is shaping up to be pretty wild as we already have a ton of big names out and a handful of DFS relevant questionable guys. LeBron James is officially Q, but I’m not going to write a bunch about him again as he has played almost every time he’s been Q lately so just keep Westbrook, Monk, and Anthony in the back of your minds if James does actually sit.
UPDATE: James is OUT
After LeBron the next biggest name is Nikola Vucevic who is questionable with a right hamstring strain. Running a CourtIQ with Vucevic off the floor DeMar DeRozan jumps off the page with a 45% usage rate and scores 1.67 FPPM which is a 12% increase in usage and a .42 FPPM bump. Zach LaVine is right behind him at 38% and 1.51 FPPM so both will be top plays if Vucevic sits. Tristan Thompson would likely get most of the C minutes, but in a tough matchup with Embiid and so much other value available in other games he won’t be on my radar.
UPDATE: Vucevic is OUT.
Rudy Gobert was added to the injury report around 2:15PM EST as questionable with left calf soreness. As if we didn’t have enough value today this would make Hassan Whiteside in play at under $5,000 on both FD and DK while all the other starters would get usage bumps.
Kyle Lowry was upgraded to questionable at 12:30pm EST and if available Gabe Vincent would be irrelevant while Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo would take slight usage hits.
UPDATE: Lowry will be AVAILABLE
D’Angelo Russell was added to the injury report at 2:00PM EST as questionable with bilateral hamstring soreness. If he gets ruled out then Malik Beasley becomes an even better value play and Towns has an even higher ceiling especially with the game against Portland with a better chance to stay closer with no Russell. If Beverley and Russell both end up out then McLaughlin and Nowell will have to help a lot at PG.
UPDATE: Russell is OUT.
Otto Porter Jr. and Juan Toscano-Anderson were added to the injury report around 2:30PM EST both with a “general illness”. If both are out the Warriors would only have 8 available and Poole, Lee, Moody, and Kuminga would be looking at a ton of minutes.
Patrick Beverley, Will Barton, and Kevin Huerter are in the next tier for important questionable tags so I’ll touch on each of them quickly. Beverley sitting would likely propel Malik Beasley in to the starting lineup and he be right in the mix as a top value play on both sites but especially on FanDuel at just $3,600, while D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns would be even higher-upside plays but do carry some blowout risk. Will Barton sitting would give a slight usage bump to the other starters, while Austin Rivers and Bryn Forbes would likely split the SG minutes and there’s just too much other value today to consider either of them. Kevin Huerter sitting would likely move Bogdan Bogdanovic with the starters and he’d be a strong mid-range play, but overall not major news on this crazy of a slate.
UPDATE: Kevin Huerter is OUT. Patrick Beverley is IN.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Starting with FanDuel Brandon Williams is just popping like no other and is easily the top p/$ play currently. Jordan Poole is right behind him at an over 8.0 p/$ ratio projection so starting your lineup with those two is about as easy as it can get. Josh Hart is my next priority as he is just too cheap at $6,000 with his projected ceiling of over 55, but after those three is where the decisions get a little tougher. After locking those three in you have about $7,600 average salary per position left so using more value plays isn’t entirely necessary, but if you want really jam in more $9k+ guys my next favorite value is Trendon Watford at $3,700. He may not start but should still see 30+ minutes and has put over 33 FP in each of his last two games when given 30+ minutes and even if Portland gets blown out by Minnesota Watford should be safe to still see major minutes. With those four guys you now have over $8,400 per position left and can pick five studs to fill out your team. This is how I’m currently going today unless we get absolute chaos later in the day.
DraftKings is a slightly different story today though as Josh Hart is $1,400 more expensive at $7,400 so isn’t a must-play for me there. Brandon Williams and Jordan Poole are still must-plays for me though at $3,800 and $5,300 and Watford is still in play at $5,100 but definitely not as good as he is on FD. Damion Lee, Jonathan Kuminga, and Keon Johnson are my next favorite value plays and any combo of two of those three with Williams and Poole really opens up a ton of salary for the rest of your lineup. Again today is going to be very fluid with so many questionable guys so these are just my current top plays so make sure to follow our ChangeLog to see how news is affecting players’ projections and check back here as I will provide updates on picks as we learn more news.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
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