NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
I hope everyone got to recharge their NBA DFS batteries a little yesterday as we are ending the week with a big time 10-game slate which should be full of twists and turns. The good news is that no teams are on a back-to-back so we at least have updated injury reports for all the teams but those injury reports are full of upcoming news that will shape today’s slate. Sadly Anthony Davis won’t play on his birthday but there’s still plenty of fun narratives like Devonte Graham potentially starting against his former Hornets team as well as Kyle Kuzma against his former Lakers. With seven of the ten games starting at least an hour after lock make sure to have those phones charged for any late-swaps throughout the night as there will surely be a a few.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Beginning with NBA Starting Lineups the biggest name missing today is C.J. McCollum who was placed in health and safety protocols yesterday. Brandon Ingram is also still out with his hamstring soreness so the Pelicans are going to be an extremely popular team to target today. Coming off a monster 63 FP game Jonas Valanciunas might be the highest-owned center today as he’s under $8k on both FD and DK and will be the primary offensive weapon for New Orleans. We’re projecting Devonte Graham to start at PG and he should be a top value play looking at 30+ minutes for just $4,300. Tony Snell should continue to start for Ingram but doesn’t offer much upside while Herb Jones sees an 11% usage bump and scores an additional .35 FPPM with McCollum and Ingram off the floor (seen in this CourtIQ) making him my 3rd favorite Pelican to target after J-Val and Graham. Jose Alvarado is another name to consider as he should easily see 20+ minutes and is basically minimum price on both sites and there is a chance he could start at PG over Graham.
Around noon Dallas ruled out Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith so look for Spencer Dinwiddie and Maxi Kleber to join the starting lineup and both should be great plays especially Dinwiddie on FanDuel and Kleber on DraftKings for better values. Luka Doncic remains having one of the highest ceilings of the slate going against Houston.
UPDATE: Dinwiddie and Green will start for Brunson and Finney-Smith.
Around 3PM EST Coach Silas said Christian Wood and JaeSean Tate were unlikely to play tonight so the lineups page now shows KJ Martin and Alperen Sengun as the projected starters. Both are excellent value plays especially on FanDuel where Sengun is $1k cheaper than DK.
Another starter missing today is Bojan Bogdanovic who is out for the Jazz with a lower leg contusion. There are a few options Utah could go with as his replacement but the best bet is likely Danuel House Jr. who depending on what kind of other value opens up today would be a fine value option at minimum price. Running a CourtIQ with the available Jazz today it’s the Donovan Mitchell show with a 4% usage bump taking him over 37% and a FPPM rate of 1.21.
The Pistons are another team worth talking about as they are still without Isaiah Stewart but are also missing many others today with Killian Hayes, Hamidou Diallo, Rodney McGruder, and Frank Jackson all out with injuries. It’s a tough matchup on the road in Boston but the starters should be looking at plenty of minutes as the bench is looking pretty thin today.
Other lineup news of note include Patrick Beverley likely returning after missing last game and potentially Jarred Vanderbilt as well, JaeSean Tate and Christian Wood with a chance to return from their one-game absences, and Jimmy Butler looking to get over his sinus infection and return to the lineup.
UPDATE: Wood and Tate are OUT. Vanderbilt is IN. Butler is IN.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
When the Lakers play it’s almost a guarantee at this point that LeBron James will show up in The Situation Room and we see him again as questionable with left knee soreness. We probably won’t know his status until very late after lock he is in the last game of the night 3.5 hours after the first game so make sure to keep him in the most flexible position you can in case you need to swap him out as there won’t be many swap options at a similar price range if he gets ruled out after 9PM. Westbrook, Anthony, Monk, and Reaves are my favorite targets in that order if James is out. Talen Horton-Tucker is also questionable for the Lakers which could be important if James sits as THT is a candidate to start for him and if both are out it would just make the previously mentioned Westbrook and crew better plays.
Jimmy Butler is the next biggest questionable name and like Wednesday I don’t think his status will really swing this slate too much as the Heat have a deep rotation now with ten guys seeing 10+ minutes last game and Victor Oladipo should see slightly more minutes today as his conditioning ramps up. This game is also projected to be the lowest scoring of the night sitting at just a 210 total against Cleveland and none of the Heat’s prices are making me excited to use them. Lowry, Herro, and Adebayo have some GPP appeal if Butler sits while Oladipo would have a little value appeal at just $4k on FD but overall the Heat are probably a fade today regardless of Butler’s status.
The Rockets have a couple of questionable players in Christian Wood and JaeSean Tate whose absences would have a big impact on today’s slate as KJ Martin and Alperen Sengun would likely start again if both get ruled out. Running a CourtIQ with Wood and Tate off the floor we see Sengun with a +4.9% usage increase and would be a top play especially on FD at $5,200.
UPDATE: Around 3PM we learned Tate and Wood were unlikely to play so KJ Martin and Alperen Sengun should start with very little PF/C depth behind them.
Other questionable tags of note include Anthony Edwards and Jarred Vanderbilt whose absences would make Russell and Towns even better plays in a great matchup with Orlando with Beasley and McDaniels benefiting from either of their absences.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Looking at FanDuel first it’s no surprise seeing Pelicans players jumping out as the best p/$ plays as no McCollum or Ingram frees up so much usage. Devonte Graham at $4,300 should be the top value play of the day while Herbert Jones could be right behind him as far as ownership goes as he is also $4,300 and is just too cheap for how many minutes and the usage increase he’ll get in a great matchup with Charlotte. As mentioned previously I’m expecting Jonas Valanciunas to be the highest-owned center at just $7,500 especially coming off a 63 FP game and he will absolutely be in my cash game team. If you need a sub-$4k option I would consider Jose Alvarado who is looking at 22+ minutes and potentially a lot more if Graham or Snell struggle and Alvarado gets to close the game. I’m not sure why Kristaps Porzingis is still $6,000 but he is looking like a great play as his minutes will likely increase from the 26 he saw last game and if he pushes closer to 30 minutes today he should easily pay off that price and we know his ceiling is as high as anyone when he’s feeling it. With Brunson ruled out I will also be locking in Spencer Dinwiddie at just $5,600 as the price, matchup, and upside is just too good for that price. With Wood and Tate looking closer to doubtful I will also be looking to use at least one of if not both KJ Martin and Alperen Sengun as they are just too cheap on FD. The last name I want to mention is Mike Conley who is only $5,000 and with Bogdanovic out should see a slight increase in usage. His game log is brutal over his last few games but I think he’ll bounce back today and that price makes it less of a risk if he flops. Other names that I like on FD include Alec Burks, Maxi Kleber, Jaxson Hayes, Amir Coffey, Danuel House, Jordan Clarkson, and Eric Gordon.
Switching over to DraftKings we again see Devonte Graham as a top play and he will be in my core there as well as Jonas Valanciunas and Herbert Jones. Jose Alvarado is $800 cheaper than FD at $3,100 and will be very hard to fade at that price even if we knew he’d only see 20 minutes which could be his floor today. Someone I much prefer on DraftKings over FanDuel is Daniel Gafford who is $1,600 cheaper at just $3,700. He should keep coming off the bench with Porzingis back but has been seeing around 20 minutes per game and you could do much worse at that price range. Speaking of Porzingis I don’t mind him at $7,300 but again I much prefer him on FanDuel which also goes for Russell Westbrook who is $700 more on DK. With Finney-Smith ruled out Maxi Kleber should be a great value play at $3,700 while Spencer Dinwiddie at $6,300 is definitely in play with Brunson out but I prefer him for $700 cheaper on FD. With Wood and Tate closer to doubtful now I will definitely have KJ Martin at $4,900 but Sengun at $6,200 probably won’t make the cut for me. Other cheap options on DK I’m considering include Mike Conley, Danuel House, Amir Coffey, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Eric Gordon, and Austin Reaves.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn