NBA Grind Down: Christmas Games

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-12-25 16:19:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Chicago at Brooklyn

• Vegas Line – Brooklyn -3, 188 Over/Under
• Chicago Proj. Starters – Augustin-Snell-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
• Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Pierce-Teletovic-Garnett

Chicago

Merry Christmas everyone! There are huge tournaments across the industry so hopefully the Grind Down can help make your Christmas a little extra special this year. The Bulls have a nice matchup against the Nets who have been below average defensively this season. Before we get into the picks, let’s quickly go over a few injury notes. Luol Deng missed the shootaround Tuesday and is very questionable to play. Kirk Hinrich however, did practice Tuesday and while he is also listed as questionable, you have to think that he has a better chance of playing than Deng.

The Nets have not defended any position particularly well this season and now that they don’t have Brook Lopez in the lineup, I really think we will see their interior defensive numbers drop in the rankings. I love the combo of Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah. Don’t be afraid to take both of them against this short-handed frontcourt.

• Mike Dunleavy – This pick hinges on the health of both Deng and Butler, but if one or both of them are forced to sit out, Dunleavy will step in and make a great value play. Dunleavy is a great scorer and when he gets hot, he can really rack up the points. Check the injury news and plug him in if either of those two can’t give it a go.

Brooklyn

The Nets are facing one of the league’s slowest paced teams which usually isn’t the best thing when we are talking about fantasy value. That said, the injuries to the Nets have opened up the door for both Andray Blatche and Mirza Teletovic to both see major minutes.
I will probably be fading the trio of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and Paul Pierce though. Williams is probably the safest option of the 3 for cash games, but he turned his ankle in the Nets last game and you know how injury prone he is. I think Joe Johnson makes sense as a GPP play, but I will only have limited exposure to him.

• Andray Blatche – Blatche has really played well this season with Lopez out of the lineup and he’s really their best post player now. Even though he doesn’t start, he will see around 30 minutes and have nice upside tonight against the Bulls. His price will soon increase so take him at this price while you can.

• Mirza Teletovic – Teletovic has played over 30 minutes in back to back games. While he has a somewhat limited upside, he has a nice shot and hit 6 three-pointers the other night. His price is dirt cheap across the board and he stands as one of the best value plays on the board.

Oklahoma City at New York

• Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -8, 200 Over/Under
• Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
• New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Shumpert-Smith-Anthony-Chandler

Oklahoma City

The Thunder travel to take on a Knicks team that is very banged up. It will be interesting to see if Carmelo Anthony is able to play. If he has to sit out this game, that really hurt the fantasy value of the Thunder because this one could easily get ugly early. That said, we will treat this game as if Melo is playing and then you can adjust your lineups accordingly. The Thunder are favored by 8 in what is expected to be a pretty high scoring game.

The Knicks have been very good defensively this season, but with Felton out of the lineup, I love the matchup for Russell Westbrook against Beno Udrih. Beno is one of the worst defenders in the league and Westbrook should be able to create his own shot whenever he wants it. I also like the matchup for Kevin Durant, but he is priced a little too high for my liking.

• Serge Ibaka – Ibaka is one of my favorite plays today. He is a threat to get a double-double every time he takes the floor and his ability to block 5+ shots in any game really helps his value. He has great upside and will be locked up with Bargnani who has never been known as a great defender.

New York

The Knicks are in an interesting spot today. Like I mentioned above, Carmelo Anthony is listed as a game-time decision so make sure to check the injury news closer to tip-off. Raymond Felton is also dealing with an injury and he has already been ruled out of this game so look for Beno Udrih to get another start.

The Thunder have been good at defending every position except for PG and PF and those are the two players that I think you should target in this one. Carmelo Anthony injury scares me away from him. J.R. Smith makes a great GPP play, but is a little too risky for cash games.

• Beno Udrih – Udrih is my top value play today. He is a bit of a wild card, but I think he is a much safer play than most might. He’s really played well as the starter and won’t have anyone challenging him for minutes. Not only that, but the Thunder have really struggled to defend PG’s this season.

• Andrea Bargnani – Bargnani is in play for a few reasons. First, he is in the starting lineup. Second, he is facing a Thunder team that is ranked 28th against PF’s. And finally, his price is depressed across the board. It’s a great time to buy low on Bargnani.

Miami at L.A.Lakers

• Vegas Line – Miami -8.5, 206.5 Over/Under
• Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
• L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Henry-Meeks-Johnson-Williams-Gasol

Miami

The Heat are only 8.5 point favorites in this game and while I could see this one getting ugly early, something tells me that this young Lakers team will make a game out of it. The Lakers play much better at home and should be hyped up for a Christmas matchup with the two-time defending Champs. As long as this game stays within striking distance for the Lakers, there are great fantasy options from both teams.

Dwyane Wade sat out the last game and will likely be a game-time decision for this game. If he ends up sititng out, give both LeBron James and Chris Bosh a nice bump in fantasy value. The Lakers rank in the bottom 3 against every position except for SF and LeBron is matchup-proof so there are a number of ways we could go with this one. I think Chris Bosh makes a nice play, but LeBron takes the cake.

• LeBron James – There’s just something about a Christmas game that is nationally televised that makes me think LeBron is going to have a monster game. It would be a little better if Kobe was playing, but I still expect big things out of LeBron. The Lakers don’t have anyone that can defend him and I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up a triple-double. He should be considered the top overall fantasy option today.

L.A.Lakers

The Lakers have a tough matchup against the Heat, but Vegas expects this game to be high scoring and I expect the Lakers to come out and make this game interesting. They play much better at home and I think they will keep it close enough that both teams will keep their starters in.

With all of the injuries, trying to choose a Lakers’ guard is a bit like trying to choose numbers at the roulette wheel. Wesley Johnson, Nick Young, Xavier Henry, and Jodie Meeks are all playing huge minutes and they are all decent fantasy options. It’s tough to say that one is a better play over the other because their salaries differ across the sites, but not factoring in price, I would rank them in the following order for this game: Henry, Young, Meeks, Johnson. Don’t be afraid to use a couple of them. Update: Jordan Farmar will be back for this game and will start over Henry. Farmar has decent value in GPP’s

• Pau Gasol – Gasol is the easy choice here, he has the best matchup and has the best upside of any Lakers player. The offense is running through Pau right now and he should be able to dominate the smaller Bosh in the post. The best part about Pau is that he is a great passer and should be able to dish a few assists here.

Houston at San Antonio

• Vegas Line – San Antonio -7, 210 Over/Under
• Houston Proj. Starters – Lin-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
• San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Belinelli-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter

Houston

The Rockets travel to San Antonio to take on the Spurs. This game just gives me a weird feeling. Of all of the games today, I think this one has the best chance of turning into a blowout. James Harden is listed as a game-time decision and we likely won’t find out about his status until way after the first game tips off. For that reason, I think you have to avoid him completely on sites that lock lineups.

The Spurs are ranked in the top 7 against SG’s, SF’s, and Centers and have been one of the better defensive teams this season. If Harden ends up playing, I don’t really love anyone on the Rockets. However, if Harden sits out, then you can give a bump to Parsons, Dwight, and Garcia. I think Jeremy Lin and Aaron Brooks make sense as GPP plays, but I will most likely be avoiding the Rockets in my cash games.

San Antonio

The Spurs have a fantastic matchup today. The Rockets are one of the worst defenses in the league and the Spurs are projected as the highest scoring team of the day. I do think that this game could turn into a blowout, but we will not factor that in here. The Rockets have been below average at defending every single position and have really struggled against PF’s this season. I think Kawhi Leonard is certainly in play here, but the top play honors belong to old Parker and Duncan.

• Tony Parker – The Rockets weren’t very good against PG’s even with a great defender in Patrick Beverley. Their ranking against PG’s will likely take an even bigger hit now that Beverley is sidelined for at least a month. Jeremy Lin is one of the worst defenders in the league and Parker should have no problems penetrating this defense and creating shots for himself and his teammates.

• Tim Duncan – The Rockets are currently ranked 26th against PF’s on the season and Duncan makes a great play. He has incredible upside the you don’t really expect from him. He’s posted a few 50+ fantasy point games this season and is in play in both cash games and GPP’s.

L.A.Clippers at Golden State

• Vegas Line – Golden State -2, 205 Over/Under
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut

L.A.Clippers

The last game on Christmas should be a good one. The Warriors are only two point favorites against the Clippers and both of these teams are expected to score over 100 points. I’m actually a little surprised that the total isn’t higher than 205 points. The Clippers are expected to be at full strength for this one, so it really comes down to each matchup and each player’s salary.

What a difference a year makes. The Warriors were one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season and now rank in the top 11 against every position except for PG. That’s really impressive considering the fact that they love to push the pace. That said, I don’t think we can rule out anyone here. Jamal Crawford has been playing well and is a solid GPP play, Blake Griffin has been on fire and should continue to play well, and DeAndre Jordan should easily reach a double-double.

• Chris Paul – CP3 is probably my 2nd ranked player next to LeBron tonight. I think he outscores Durant and Curry. The Warriors have not defended PG’s well this season and I always love taking Paul when he faces another top PG because he always seems to have something to prove. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post a 30 point, 10 assist performance here.

Golden State

The Warriors are also in a nice spot. Both of these teams like to push the pace and this one is expected to come right down to the wire. The Clippers have really defended backcourts well this season, but have sturggled to defend the post which is a bit of a mystery considering the fact that Griffin and Jordan are considered good defenders.

Even though the Clippers are ranked in the top 5 against PG’s and SG’s on the season, I don’t think you can ever rule out Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson at home. I do think Paul is the better play over Curry, but Klay is one of my top value plays considering his depressed price across the board. I am still avoiding the Iguodala and Barnes situation, they are both hurting each other’s fantasy value. Andrew Bogut is a site-specific play, I think he is a little too pricey on DS, but I like the price for him on FD and DK.

• David Lee – Lee has been on fire the past few weeks. He has posted double-doubles in 9 straight games and most of them have been monster double-doubles. He should have no problem topping 35 FP’s in this favorable matchup against the Clippers.