NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-28 00:20:19

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		214.5					Vegas Total		214.5
			Vegas Spread		1.5					Vegas Spread		-1.5
			Implied Team Total		106.5					Implied Team Total		108.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.7					Pace Projection +/-		0.2
Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas		Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	10	17	13	5	8		DvP	12	3	3	7	21
DRPM Rat.	12	14	2	19	7		DRPM Rat.	2	22	4	9	21

Toronto Raptors

We made it through another workweek, so happy Friday everyone. There are three games on the schedule tonight, which is much preferred over the single-game slate that we had last night. The Raptors picked up a win at home in Game 5 and now have a chance to close out the series in Washington. While the spread is set at 1.5 points, we’ve been expecting this series to go seven games right from the start. These two teams are evenly matched on both ends of the floor and we have yet to see the home team lose a game. The best part about this series has been the pace. These games have been great to target for fantasy production and I expect more of the same tonight.

Kyle Lowry has seen a healthy boost in playing time in the playoffs and it has led to a small boost in fantasy production. He’s an intriguing tournament play tonight, as his ownership should be low with everyone gravitating to John Wall, Russell Westbrook, and Ricky Rubio at point guard. We are paying a slight premium for Lowry, but he’s certainly capable of scoring 40+ fantasy points. DeMar DeRozan has scored at will in this series, but he doesn’t offer as much as Lowry when it comes to peripheral statistics. At his current price point, he’s a tough sell. Victor Oladipo is actually cheaper on DraftKings and Bradley Beal could benefit from the injury to Otto Porter.

OG Anunboy, Delon Wright, and C.J. Miles all benefit from Fred VanVleet being out. He has played two whole minutes in this series, so even if he is active, I don’t expect him to play a big role tonight. Wright offers the most fantasy appeal with VanVleet out. He has topped 30 fantasy points in three of the first five games of the series. Wright will end up being an ownership play for me in this slate. If he’s going to be popular, I don’t mind fading him at this price point. If he’s going to be low-owned, I don’t mind taking an overweight stance on him. Serge Ibaka forgot to show up in Game 5 and has been quiet since the first game of the series. Jonas Valanciunas logged 32 minutes the other night, but that’s not a trend that we can expect to continue. His previous high in the series was 23 minutes. When it comes to cash games, I may end up fading the Raptors completely.

Notable Injuries

Fred VanVleet (Questionable)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -5.2 (4 of 6)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), Delon Wright (GPP – if projected ownership is low)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash), Delon Wright (Cash), DeMar DeRozan, C.J. Miles (GPP), Serge Ibaka (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are playing in an elimination game at home. While they are only 1.5-point favorites, I do expect them to force a Game 7. There is nothing better in sports than a Game 7 and we already have one on the schedule with the Celtics and Bucks. The Raptors were very tough defensively during the regular season, but the Wizards haven’t had any issues offensively in this series. They come into tonight’s game with an implied total of 108 points, which is the highest of the six teams on the schedule.

John Wall has topped 60 fantasy points in three of the first five games of the series. With their season on the line, we can expect 40+ minutes from Wall and he’ll be aggressive right from the start. He’s my top superstar to pay up for tonight when factoring in salaries. From a raw projection standpoint, LeBron James has Wall beat, but Wall is significantly cheaper across the industry. Bradley Beal and I have a rocky relationship. It’s been nothing but hard times for us this season. I have managed to avoid him in every game so far this series, but may end up playing him tonight (this should be a huge red flag for anyone considering him). Otto Porter is banged up, Beal’s price has come down to a playable level, and the Wizards are in a must-win situation.

Kelly Oubre is one of the top values plays of the slate. This may sound strange, but I actually hope Porter plays tonight to keep Oubre’s ownership at a reasonable level. If Oubre is announced as the starter, he will immediately become the chalk. As we’ve seen a number of times over the last two seasons, Oubre is more productive off the bench than he is as a starter. Markieff Morris has struggled with foul trouble in this series, but should play around 30 minutes at a price of only $4,500 on DraftKings. I prefer him over Mike Scott, who has only played 27 minutes in the last two games combined. Marcin Gortat will be my go-to target at center tonight. If you take out the game where he got into early foul trouble, he has averaged 29 minutes and 23 fantasy points per contest in this series. He should play around 30 minutes tonight and he’s still priced under $5,00 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Injuries

Otto Porter (Questionable)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 1.4 (2 of 6)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall, Kelly Oubre, Marcin Gortat, Bradley Beal (DK), Markieff Morris (DK)

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (FD), Markieff Morris (FD), Mike Scott (FD)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		203.5					Vegas Total		203.5
			Vegas Spread		1.5					Vegas Spread		-1.5
			Implied Team Total		101.0					Implied Team Total		102.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.4					Pace Projection +/-		0.5
Projected Starters	George Hill	Kyle Korver	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Kevin Love		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	4	4	16	12	24		DvP	22	25	27	16	13
DRPM Rat.	19	1	21	5	18		DRPM Rat.	22	5	27	21	15

Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron James is putting on one of the best first-round performances that I have ever seen. The problem is that he is having to do all of this just to beat the Pacers. It’s mind-blowing how bad the rest of the Cavaliers (with the exception of Kyle Korver) have been this series. They were lucky enough to escape Game 5 with a win and now have the chance to close out the series in Indiana. The outcome of each game is irrelevant for daily fantasy, but I always like to post my predictions in the postseason. While I’d love to see a Game 7 with Lance and LeBron, I’ll take the Cavaliers tonight.

George Hill is questionable for tonight’s game. He has missed the last two games and it hasn’t really made an impact on fantasy production. Jose Calderon, Rodney Hood, and Jordan Clarkson have all struggled in this series. Regardless of whether or not Hill play, all of these ancillary pieces can be avoided. Kyle Korver has been the second best player on the Cavaliers over the last few games. It’s strange to see Kevin Love sitting in the corner while they run plays for Korver, but that’s where we are in the series. Korver feels a little expensive on DraftKings, but is certainly viable on FanDuel ($4,500) where we have to roster two shooting guards. J.R. Smith plays a ton of minutes and relies on two stats for his fantasy production — three pointers and steals. Those are the most consistent stats to accumulate, but I’m always on board with a player that is going to see 35 minutes at $3,700 on FanDuel.

LeBron James is the top overall play tonight when we are strictly talking about a raw projection. It’s fairly easy to pair him with John Wall or Russell Westbrook on FanDuel, but the pricing is a little tighter on DraftKings. James has averaged 43 minutes and 63 fantasy points per game in this series and is basically the entire Cavaliers’ team right now. If you expect this game to be competitive, you should expect another strong outing from James. Kevin Love looks cheap at the moment, but he hasn’t topped 27 fantasy points in any of the last four games. He basically needs 35-40 fantasy points to reach value tonight. Until I see it, I will be avoiding Love in all formats. Larry Nance and Jeff Green are deep tournament darts at best.

Notable Injuries

George Hill (Questionable)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.0 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -9.9 (6 of 6)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, J.R. Smith (FD), Kyle Korver (FD)

Secondary Plays – J.R. Smith (DK), Kyle Korver (DK)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers need to win tonight to force a Game 7. They have had a chance to win every game in this series, yet they find themselves down 3-2. I will say this — the Pacers have been resilient in this series, so I expect them to come out and compete. The major difference between the two teams is that the Cavaliers have a close in LeBron James. We don’t need to focus too much on the outcome of the game though, as we don’t get any fantasy points for wins and losses.

Darren Collison has exceeded value twice in this series and has underperformed in the other three games. Consistency has always been his strong suit, but that hasn’t been the case in this series. In an elimination game at home, I would expect him to play 30+ minutes and this is obviously an exploitable matchup. With that said, I do prefer paying up for John Wall and Ricky Rubio if possible. Victor Oladipo is basically a plug-and-play tonight on DraftKings ($7,900). He’s also viable on FanDuel, but rostering him makes it tough to pair LeBron James with one of the superstar point guards. Roster construction is everything in DFS, especially in these smaller slates.

I’ve somehow managed to be on the right side of Bojan Bogdanovic in every game so far this series. After two subpar outings, I’m ready to hype the Bojan train again. We all know he offers plenty of upside at his price point and his ownership will be down with everyone gravitating to Kelly Oubre at the cheaper end of the small forward range. Lance Stephenson is always a fun play in tournaments, but his price has come up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Cory Joseph had the big outing in Game 5, but the Pacers may give a few extra minutes to their starters in a must-win game at home.

The Pacers’ frontcourt has been hit or miss all series. Myles Turner was playing a ton of minutes in the first three games, but got into foul trouble in Game 4. This opened the door for Domantas Sabonis and he carried that momentum into Game 6. Sabonis has now played at least 24 minutes in three straight games. His game log scares me, but he’s my favorite play from the Pacers’ frontcourt, especially on FanDuel ($4,600) where we have to roster two power forwards. Thaddeus Young is still viable on DraftKings ($5,600), but far from a core play. Dollar for dollar, I would rather play Markieff Morris and use the $1,100 discount elsewhere.

Notable Injuries

None

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -3.1 (3 of 6)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (DK), Bojan Bogdanovic (GPP), Domantas Sabonis (FD)

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (FD), Bojan Bogdanovic (Cash), Domantas Sabonis (DK), Darren Collison, Lance Stephenson (GPP), Thaddeus Young (DK)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz – 10:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder							Utah Jazz
			Vegas Total		207.0					Vegas Total		207.0
			Vegas Spread		6.0					Vegas Spread		-6.0
			Implied Team Total		100.5					Implied Team Total		106.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.8					Pace Projection +/-		-0.4
Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Corey Brewer	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams		Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	1	4	2	7		DvP	8	24	7	11	3
DRPM Rat.	2	6	6	10	1		DRPM Rat.	5	20	9	25	17

Oklahoma City Thunder

There are no words to describe Game 5 in Oklahoma City. With eight minutes left in the third, the Thunder were down by 25 points and appeared to have fully checked out. They made a few baskets in a row, Rudy Gobert picked up his fourth foul, and then the momentum started to shift. The Jazz tried to go back to Gobert late in the third and he quickly picked up another foul. By the time he got back into the game, it was basically tied. The Thunder will look to stave off elimination one more time, although this time they’ll have to do it in Utah. They come into the game with an implied total of 100.5 points, which is the lowest of the slate.

Russell Westbrook took over in the second half of Game 5, but he got a lot of easy looks while Rudy Gobert was on the bench. There are plenty of stats out there that show his reluctance to attack the rim when Gobert is in the paint. I don’t want to count Westbrook out in a must-win game, but I will gladly play John Wall over him tonight. The Thunder bench played well in Game 5, but now have to play on the road in one of the toughest environments in the NBA. I would rather lean on the veterans in Corey Brewer and Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is a wildcard here because he has been productive all series, despite shooting the ball poorly. After only played 25 minutes in Game 5, we have a chance to play him at 10-15% ownership.

Paul George has been a bright spot for the Thunder in this series. He has averaged 41 minutes and 42 fantasy points per game. He’s made some incredibly difficult shots, but his minutes and his ability to fill up the stat sheet give him a high floor and a high ceiling. He’s certainly priced at a premium, but viable in tournaments tonight. Steven Adams hasn’t been productive on a per-minute basis in this series, but he is only $5,200 on DraftKings and he logged 40 minutes in Game 5. That combination alone makes him a viable option in all formats.

Notable Injuries

None

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 107.9 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -7.4 (5 of 6)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 7.0 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook (GPP), Carmelo Anthony (GPP), Paul George (GPP), Steven Adams (DK)

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (Cash), Carmelo Anthony (Cash), Paul George (Cash)

Utah Jazz

The Jazz couldn’t have lost Game 5 in a worse way. It’s one thing to lose a close game or to get blown out on the road, but to blow a 25-point lead in the second half is brutal. While I would typically worry about the psyche of a team in this situation, they have a very good coach and a very confident selection of players. They are also playing in Utah, which has historically been one of the biggest home-court advantages in the NBA. Utah comes into the game with an implied total of 106.5 points, which is the second highest on the board.

Ricky Rubio has played at an All-Star level in this series, averaging 35 minutes and 42 fantasy points per game. His ability to rack up rebounds, assists, and steals gives him a high floor and a high ceiling. Dollar for dollar, he’s one of the top plays at any position tonight. Donovan Mitchell doesn’t look like a rookie and he certainly doesn’t play like a rookie. He has averaged 45 fantasy points in this series and is a borderline elite play again tonight. I slightly prefer him on FanDuel, as Victor Oladipo is too cheap to ignore on DraftKings. Joe Ingles played well in the two games at home earlier in this series and is worth a look on DraftKings at $5,800.

I will be targeting quite a few Jazz players tonight, but will have zero exposure to Jae Crowder. In Game 6, caught fire in the first half and benefitted immensely from the Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert getting into foul trouble. I will be thrilled if people chase that outing and Crowder ends up with high ownership. Favors is one of the top plays at power forward. He’s going to see minutes in the low-30s in an exploitable matchup. Gobert is my favorite center to spend on tonight and close to a must-play on DraftKings. Assuming he can stay out of foul trouble, he could end up playing 38-40 minutes in this one.

Notable Injuries

None

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 2.4 (1 of 6)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -7.0 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell (FD)

Secondary Plays – Donovan Mitchell (DK), Joe Ingles (DK)