NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 17th - Page 2
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L.A.Lakers at Boston
- Vegas Line – Boston -6.5, 205 Over/Under
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Gasol-Sacre
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Humphries
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers are in a decent spot tonight against the Celtics. While the C’s aren’t a high scoring team, they have picked up their pace lately and both of these teams average at least 95 possessions per game. With the addition of Rondo, I expect this game to be fast-paced and high scoring. The Celtics have really struggled to defend the post lately and there aren’t any matchups that I am avoiding on the Lakers except for Jodie Meeks who will be defended by Avery Bradley. Wesley Johnson continues to make a solid punt option at SF.
- Pau Gasol – As long as the Lakers keep the game close, Pau should be in for another big game. He has scored over 40 FP’s in each of his last 6 games where he has played at least 30 minutes. The offense is running through Pau and he is really doing a nice job of taking what the defense gives him.
- Kendall Marshall – Marshall doesn’t have the prettiest game in the NBA, but he gets the job done and really runs D’Antoni’s offense well. On first glance, you may think that the matchup against the Celtics is a bad one, but Rondo is making his season debut and I don’t he does much on the defensive end of the floor tonight. Marshall should attack Rondo and create some easy looks for his teammates. He is a very sneaky play tonight.
Boston
When I first saw the schedule, all I could think of when I saw this game was NOOOOOO! I’m going to be tempted to take Jeff Green once again. As hard as it may be, you have to love the matchup for him tonight. The Lakers own the second worst defense in the league and rank in the bottom 4 against every positions on the floor except for SF’s. The big news in Boston is the return of Rajon Rondo tonight. He is expected to play between 18-20 minutes tonight and should be ignored for fantasy purposes, but it will be nice to see him back on the floor. The NBA is at it’s best when all of it’s stars are healthy.
- Jared Sullinger – Humphries is also in play tonight and they make an interesting stack at the PF position on FD tonight. Both are $5400 or less. Sully is my favorite of the two though. He is coming off of a monster performance against the Raptors and he should be able to back it up tonight against the Lakers who have been the worst team in the league at defending PF’s. Look for Sully to have a big double-double tonight against this weak interior of the Lakers.
Utah at Detroit
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Burks-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Utah
Gordon Hayward is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game and luckily for us, this game tips off at 7:30 so we should know his status before the tip off of the first game. If Hayward has to sit out again tonight, Alec Burks makes a great value play once again. He has really filled in nicely. Trey Burke would also see a small boost in minutes if Hayward has to sit out.
- Derrick Favors – Even with Smith, Monroe, and Drummond, the Pistons are terrible at defending the paint. It’s really quite confusing, but my job is to find the best matchups and exploit them. Favors should really play well against this soft interior defense.
- Trey Burke – Burke has a very favorable matchup tonight against Jennings. The Pistons are ranked 27th at defending PG’s over the last 15 days and Burke is pretty cheap across the industry.
Detroit
The Pistons are also in a nice spot tonight and the Jazz are nice enough to make my job easy. The Jazz defend the SG and PF positions well and they struggle to defend PG’s, SF’s, and Centers. Of the three positions, I trust Andre Drummond the least and that’s just because I think Favors could get him in some early foul trouble.
- Brandon Jennings – Jennings is one of the more inconsistent fantasy players, in his last 4 games alone his fantasy point production has ranged from 19 FP’s to 44 FP’s. He has incredible upside thanks to his ability to get hot and create his own shot whenever he wants it. His biggest problem is consistency. That said, I think the matchup lines up well for him tonight.
- Josh Smith – There are few fantasy players in the NBA with as much upside as J-Smoove. When he is locked in, he can do everything on the floor including getting multiple blocks and steals. I like his matchup tonight and think he makes a great GPP play.
Sacramento at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -5.5, 199.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Sacramento
The Kings are rarely playing in a game with a total that is set at less than 200 points. That says more about the Grizzlies than it does the Kings. With Marc Gasol back in the lineup, look for the Grizzlies to get back to their bread and butter, which is slow the pace of the game down and play great defense. I think you can safely ignore the DvP rankings for the Grizzlies because their defense as a whole gets much better with Gasol in the lineup. I’m avoiding all Kings players in this one.
Memphis
The Grizzlies on the other hand have a nice matchup tonight. The Kings like to push the pace which helps the fantasy value of the Grizzlies as a whole. Tony Allen is expected to miss another game so expect Courtney Lee to get another start at SG. He had an awful performance in his last game, but should bounce back nicely against this weak defense. Marc Gasol is still a bit overpriced for his upside, I will continue to avoid him until he is back to playing 35+ minutes a night.
- Mike Conley – The only downside with Conley is that his price has really spiked due to his recent production. He’s averaged well over 35 fantasy points over his last 6 games and he should be able to top that mark tonight against the Kings who do not defend PG’s well.
- Zach Randolph – Randolph’s fantasy value gets hurt a little bit with Gasol back, but he is still a nice fantasy option and his price has come down on a few sites. Look for Randolph to post a big double-double against this defense.
Portland at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -6, 213.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Ginobili-Leonard-Diaw-Duncan
Portland
This will be a battle of two of the West’s best teams. One has been the best for many years and one is trying to take that next step. Vegas expects this to be one of the highest scoring games of the night and I like quite a few fantasy options in this game.
- Damian Lillard – Lillard has a solid matchup against Parker and the Spurs who are ranked 23rd against PG’s this season. Lillard is one of the few players in the league that can take over a game offensively and I think he is in for a big game tonight. I think Aldridge and Duncan will slow each other down a bit and Lillard will be the high scorer in this game.
- Robin Lopez – Lopez makes a nice punt option tonight at Center. He is cheap across the industry and has been a very consistent fantasy player that you can rely on for 20+ fantasy points.
San Antonio
The Spurs are expected to be one of the highest scoring teams tonight. They will be without Danny Green again tonight so the trio of Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, and Marco Belinelli all have fantasy value. Of the bunch, Leonard is probably the safest play and the play with the most upside. I like Tim Duncan as a GPP play, but I do think that him and Aldridge will both step up their defense.
- Tony Parker – Parker is one of my favorite plays tonight. He is the engine of this offense and should be in for a very nice game offensively against the Blazers who have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to PG’s this season.
Cleveland at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -6.5, 213.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miles-Deng-Thompson-Varejao
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
Cleveland
The Cavs travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets and I’m surprised that the line is only at 6.5. The Cavs have been playing much better basketball lately though and the addition of Luol Deng helps them on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets have been pretty average defensively this season, but have given up some big games to PF’s. Use Tristan Thompson as a nice mid-range option at PF.
- Kyrie Irving – Irving has 3 straight games with under 30 FP’s, but I’m going to go out on a limb here (sarcasm) and say he tops that mark tonight. He has a great matchup against the uptempo Nuggets.
- Anderson Varejao – Varejao outhustles everyone on the floor. I love taking him because you can count on him to give you 15+ rebounds a night. Add in a few easy buckets, a few assists, and a few blocks and steals and Varejao becomes a very reliable fantasy option. He should be able to top 35 FP’s in this one.
Denver
The Nuggets have a solid matchup as well. The Cavs have not been great defensively this season, but they are much better with the addition of Luol Deng. The Cavs now have three legitimate defenders in Deng, Thompson, and Varejao. The only real viable option here is Ty Lawson.
- Ty Lawson – Lawson has an extremely high floor because he is basically the Nuggets offense. This game is expected to be played at a fast-pace and Lawson is one of the better players in transition. I think we see him top 20 points and 10 assists tonight and match Kyrie step for step.