NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-01-03 20:22:08

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Toronto at Washington

Vegas Line – Washington -2.5, 195 Over/Under
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat

Toronto

Grinders! Thanks again for reading the NBA Grind Down. Today we will kick it off with the Raptors and Wizards. This game is expected to be played at a very average pace and the total is set at 195 points which isn’t high or low. I would rank this game is right in the middle in terms of fantasy production.

The Wizards DvP rankings have been very inconsistent this season in large part to their consistent changes to the lineup due to injuries. I tend to trust the last 15 day rankings more than the season long rankings in these situations. If you look at those DvP rankings, you will see that the Wizards have struggled against PG’s and PF’s. Amir Johnson is a little too inconsistent for my liking though.

Kyle Lowry – Lowry is playing at an extremely high level. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games and could top that number again tonight. Wall likes to leak out on defense and take chances. While that often times leads to easy buckets for Wall, it also leads to easy buckets for the opposing PG. Lowry should fill up the stat sheet once again tonight.

Washington

The Wizards have two three-man rotations that I just don’t love right now. At the wing position, Trevor Ariza, Bradley Beal, and Martell Webster all split minutes. And their bigs have a rotation of Marcin Gortat, Trevor Booker, and Nene Hilario. I’m not going to be completely avoiding these players, but Coach Wittman is likely going to stick with the hot hand.

The Raptors have defended PG’s, PF’s, and Centers extremely well this season. Time and time again I think PG’s facing the Raptors will eventually buck the trend and have a good game, but that just hasn’t been the case. Lowry has had excellent defense all season long and Wall’s matchup against him makes him an easy fade. Trevor Ariza is really the only Wizards player that is on my radar and he is only in play on a couple of sites where his price is depressed (FD & DK).

Golden State at Atlanta

Vegas Line – Golden State -2, 204.5 Over/Under
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Brand

Golden State

The Warriors are coming off of a big win last night and could be in for a letdown game tonight. Vegas has the Warriors as 4 point favorites tonight and I agree that this should be a game that comes down tot the wire. The Warriors are one of the fastest paced teams in the league (averaging close to 100 possessions per 48 minutes) which bodes well for both teams tonight.

The Hawks have only defended one position well and that’s thanks to the defense of Paul Millsap. That said, I don’t think that you should avoid David Lee tonight. With Horford out, Millsap has been forced to play some time at the Center position and Lee has been on a tear over the last couple of weeks. Andre Iguodala is a nice play in cash games tonight, he doesn’t score a lot of points, but he does a little of everything on the floor.

Andrew Bogut – Bogut is one of my favorite plays tonight. After only playing 18 minutes last night, not only will he be on fresh legs, but most people will be scared to take him. His 18 minutes had nothing to do with his play, but the matchup just didn’t bode well for him. Look for him to bounce back in a big way tonight and play close to 30 minutes if this game stays close.

Stephen Curry – Curry is coming off of a huge game against the Heat last night. Sometimes you want to avoid players after a big game, but with Curry I think you have to ride the hot hand. He proved last night that he is matchup proof and he is one of my top 3 overall plays tonight.

Atlanta

The Hawks are in a very favorable position tonight. They are facing the fast-paced Warriors team that is playing in a back to back situation. This is a perfect trap game for them to pull off a victory in. With Al Horford out for the year, the Hawks have really only had two viable fantasy options: Jeff Teague and Paul Millsap.

It sounds like the Hawks will start Pero Antic at Center tonight. I just don’t think you can count on enough production from him to warrant taking. The Hawks will have DeMarre Carroll back tonight though, he makes an interesting value play on sites where he is close to minimum salary.

Paul Millsap – Millsap is having a career year and with Horford out for the season, his numbers are only going to get better. His price has gone up across the board, but I think he is in play on every site with the exception of DraftStreet. He is their best option offensively and he should be in for another big game.

Jeff Teague – Teague is a bit cheaper than Millsap, but I feel like his upside is pretty close to Millsap’s. Teague has the best matchup of anyone on the Hawks as the Warriors have really struggled to defend the PG position this season. Look for Teague to push the ball up the floor. I’m predicting a 20/10 game from him tonight.

New Orleans at Boston

Vegas Line – New Orleans -1.5, 201 Over/Under
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Aminu-Anderson-Davis
Boston Proj. Starters – Crawford-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Bass

New Orleans

The total of this game is set at 201 points which was a big higher than I expected it to be considering the Celtics are one of the teams playing. That tells me that Vegas expects the Pelicans to establish their pace of play. The Pelicans will be without Jason Smith again tonight, so that means Davis and Anderson will both continue to see 35+ minutes.

The Celtics have been pretty solid defensively this season. They don’t have any glaring weaknesses, but have struggled a bit against opposing bigs. I think Ryan Anderson makes a sneaky GPP play. However, I will be avoiding the likes of Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans tonight, I think you would be overpaying for them in a less than favorable matchup.

Anthony Davis – Davis is going to have a significant length advantage over all of the Celtics bigs tonight and should be able to pick up at least a few blocks against the smaller C’s bigs. He’s the only player in the league that averages close to double-digit fantasy points from blocks and steals alone. I’m expecting a big performance out of him tonight.

Boston

The Celtics are in a favorable position tonight. They are facing a Pelicans team that has really made an effort to push the pace recently. A quicker pace means more possessions which means more shots, rebounds, assists, etc. The Pelicans have really only defended one position well this season. Jeff Green will be locked up with Aminu which is a less than appealing matchup.

Jared Sullinger is still dealing with that hand injury, but he is trying to play his way through it. While I don’t think he is in play on every site, I do think he carries some value on sites where his price has come down. I noticed that he is extremely cheap on both DS and SS today.

Jordan Crawford – Crawford will be guarded by Holiday tonight which isn’t technically a great matchup, but the Pelicans are actually ranked below average against PG’s and that’s mainly because PG’s are able to score often in transition. I think we see Crawford get back to making plays for his teammates tonight.

New York at Houston

Vegas Line – Houston -11.5, 207.5 Over/Under
New York Proj. Starters – Udrih-Shumpert-Anthony-Bargnani-Chandler
Houston Proj. Starters – Lin-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard

New York

The Knicks surprised everyone last night with a win in San Antonio. Their roller coaster season continues. While that win may be just what they need to get themselves going, I’m not taking the bait until I see them compete night in and night out. Vegas has the Knicks as 11.5 point underdogs and that’s high enough for me to factor in a blowout here. Carmelo Anthony is a bit too risky in my eyes, but I don’t mind the value plays of either Iman Shumpert or Beno Udrih. They are both dirt cheap across the board and have favorable matchups against the uptempo Rockets.

Houston

The Rockets are in a tough position tonight. Not only are they facing a Knicks team that is only averaging 92 possessions per game (near the bottom of the league), but they are facing a Knicks team that has been blown out on numerous occasions this season. I’d like to say that this game will stay close, but you can never trust the Knicks and this one could easily be over early. I will be fading Dwight Howard and James Harden in cash games.

Jeremy Lin – Lin has been playing at a sub-par level since coming back from injury, but he put together a solid outing in his last game. I’m expecting big things from him tonight against the Knicks. Not only is he facing his former team, but he will be matched up against Udrih who has some of the worst defense that I have seen. Lin will be under-owned tonight and makes a great GPP play.

L.A.Clippers at Dallas

Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -1, 204.5 Over/Under
L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

L.A.Clippers

The total in this game is also a bit confusing to me. You would think that this game’s total would be much higher than 204 points considering the fact that both of these teams average close to 98 possessions per 48 minutes. That said, I thought the total for the Cavs/Magic game looked low last night and look how that game turned out.

The Mavericks have not been great defensively this season. The one position that they defend well is the position that is most surprising. Not many people think of Dirk as a solid defender, but the Mavs are ranked 5th in the league at defending the PF position. I think that hurts Blake Griffin value enough that I won’t be using him other than in GPP’s. I don’t mind the play of Chris Paul, but you are going to have to really pay up if you want to take him.

DeAndre Jordan – Jordan is one of those players that most DFS players have a hard time pulling the trigger on. He gets the majority of his fantasy points off of rebounds and dunks. While rebounds can be relied on, dunks are another story. That said, the Mavs have really struggled against Centers this season and I like his matchup against the non-intimidating rotation the Mavs have at Center.

Dallas

The Mavs are in a good spot tonight. Both of these teams like to push the pace. The real question for the Mavs is whether or not Dirk Nowtizki is going to play. He is listed as a game-time decision and his availability really impacts the rest of the team’s fantasy value. If Dirk has to sit out, I would give a nice boost to Brandan Wright, Monta Ellis, and Shawn Marion. All three of these players would see either an increase in minutes or an increase in shot attempts. My suggestion is to keep your eye on the injury news and adjust accordingly.