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NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 27th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-27 23:51:03

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Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves Sacramento Kings
minnesotanba Vegas Total 218.0 sacramentonba Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 108.0 Team Proj. 110.0
Team Pace 99.80 Team Pace 102.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Kevin Martin Andrew Wiggins Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Kosta Koufos Willie Cauley-Stein
Opp. Season 17 29 22 26 25 Opp. Season 15 9 13 11 14
Opp. Last 7 18 27 27 16 16 Opp. Last 7 21 1 11 3 28

Minnesota Timberwolves (Record: 7-8, Road: 5-2)

The Wolves are 7-8 to start the season, but have only had two losses on the road. Tonight they head to Sacramento to take on the Kings in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night. When two fast-paced teams with below-average defenses square off, it typically results in a wealth of fantasy production.

The Kings have not been good defensively this season, ranking 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. We should expect a lot from this Wolves’ offense tonight, as their team total is set at 108 points. That is the fourth highest team total on the board and it is seven points higher than their average on the season.

There are two injuries that we need to keep our eye on from the Wolves. Ricky Rubio and Nemanja Bjelica are both hopeful to play tonight, but we should consider them questionable. Zach LaVine would see a nice boost if Rubio is out and Shabazz Muhammad would see extended minutes if Bjelica is out. Karl-Anthony Towns is coming off of his worst two-game stretch of his career. While he may have to spend some time on DeMarcus Cousins, this is still a nice bounce-back spot for him. Kevin Martin continues to be ice-cold from the floor, however, he is still getting 30+ minutes per game. Once again, I’m on the K-Mart train tonight. Andrew Wiggins also deserves consideration as an elite play. He should be able to fill up all areas of the stat sheet in tonight’s track meet against the Kings.

Elite Plays

Andrew Wiggins

FD — $7,500
DK — $7,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 26.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 35.0

Kevin Martin

FD — $4,500
DK — $4,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 24.3
FP/Game — Season: 18.1 | Last Five Games: 16.2

Secondary Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD — $6,900
DK — $7,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.5 | Last Five Games: 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 26.5
FP/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 28.6

Zach LaVine

Bump him up to an elite play if Ricky Rubio is out.
FD — $5,500
DK — $4,800
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 27.3
FP/Game — Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 22.8

Sacramento Kings (Record: 6-10, Home: 4-5)

The Kings have been my favorite team to see on the schedule this season. They are one of the fastest-paced teams and they also have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. That’s the perfect combination. The Kings have also kept games competitive, which means the starters see their full allotment of minutes. The Kings are listed as 2-point favorites tonight at home.

The Wovles have been average defensively, ranking between 12th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. We shouldn’t expect much defense to be played in this one though, as these two teams are both projected to score at least 108 points.

DeMarcus Cousins missed Wednesday’s game with a back injury. There has yet to be an update on his status, but we should consider him questionable for tonight’s game against the Wolves. If he is unable to play, Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo would both become must plays at their respective positions. Even if Cousins does play, Gay and Rondo are still elite options. Omri Casspi, Marco Belinelli, and Kosta Koufos would also see a boost if Cousins is out. Those three picks are more dependent on Cousins’ availability than Gay and Rondo.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

If he is cleared to play.
FD — $10,600
DK — $10,600
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 27.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 46.4 | Last Five Games: 49.5

Rajon Rondo

FD — $8,400
DK — $9,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 14.9
Min/Game — Season: 36.8 | Last Five Games: 39.7
FP/Game — Season: 38.4 | Last Five Games: 44.6

Rudy Gay

FD — $7,600
DK — $7,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 37.3

Secondary Plays

If DeMarcus Cousins is out.

Omri Casspi

FD — $4,100
DK — $4,700
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 13.9
Min/Game — Season: 26.0 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 23.1

Kosta Koufos

FD — $4,000
DK — $4,500
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.3 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game — Season: 24.1 | Last Five Games: 25.0
FP/Game — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 22.7

Marco Belinelli

FD — $3,900
DK — $4,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 18.2
Min/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 28.1
FP/Game — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 20.7

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

New Orleans Pelicans Los Angeles Clippers
neworleansnba Vegas Total 213.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 110.0
Team Pace 100.80 Team Pace 99.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Eric Gordon Alonzo Gee Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Wesley Johnson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 12 12 19 14 16 Opp. Season 30 21 17 20 28
Opp. Last 7 5 4 26 9 13 Opp. Last 7 23 30 10 18 5

New Orleans Pelicans (Record: 4-11, Road: 1-7)

The Pelicans may only be 4-11 on the season, but they have won three games in a row. All three were quality wins too, as they beat the Spurs and the Suns (twice). New Orleans now head to Los Angeles to take on the struggling Clippers.

The Clippers have not fared well defensively this season. They are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pelicans have an implied team total of 103.5 points, which is right around their season average. Anthony Davis has gotten a lot of slack with all of his injuries, but he has scored at least 49 fantasy points (FD scoring) in each of his last three games. If the Pelicans are going to have any chance tonight, they are going to need a big game from Davis. Eric Gordon has the revenge game narrative going for him tonight, but he is more of a secondary option.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis

FD — $11,100
DK — $10,800
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 44.1 | Last Five Games: 42.5

Secondary Plays

Eric Gordon

FD — $6,100
DK — $6,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 19.1
Min/Game — Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 28.6

Los Angeles Clippers (Record: 7-8, Home: 5-4)

These 12 game slates are intense. If I had carpel tunnel, it would certainly be acting up right about now. The Clippers have lost seven of their last ten games, after starting out with a 4-1 record. They are looking to right the ship tonight against the Pelicans at home.

The Pelicans have arguably been the worst defense in the NBA this season. Name any defensive statistic and the Pelicans are likely near the bottom. They are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. With an implied team total of 110 points, the Clippers are one of the top teams to target tonight.

Most people that play daily fantasy tend to favor the players in the earlier games. Not only do they get to watch their scores right after lineups lock, but they also don’t have to worry about those players being late scratches. However, if you can muster up the courage, tonight is a great night to heavily target these West coast games. Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Jordan all deserve consideration as elite plays tonight against the Pelicans. I don’t like using all three in the same lineup, but I don’t mind pairing Chris Paul with one of his bigs.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD — $9,200
DK — $9,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 25.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 43.1 | Last Five Games: 39.7

Chris Paul

FD — $8,900
DK — $8,400
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 24.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 31.3
FP/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 40.4

DeAndre Jordan

FD — $7,800
DK — $7,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.3 | Last Five Games: 12.3
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 35.9

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious