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NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-29 14:25:12

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Charlotte Hornets
clevelandnba Vegas Total 204.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Sprd -4.0 Vegas Sprd 4.0
Team Proj. 104.3 Team Proj. 100.3
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 98.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mo Williams J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 8 11 9 29 20 Opp. Season 5 15 15 5 2
Opp. Last 7 17 18 7 11 23 Opp. Last 7 22 13 9 26 3

Cleveland Cavaliers (Record: 11-4, Road: 3-4)

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. Even though the football games weren’t great, at least the Bears/Packers game came down to the very end.

The Cavaliers are coming off of a loss against the Raptors, but they are still 11-4 on the season. All four of those losses have come on the road. Tonight’s game against the Hornets could be a lot closer than you’d originally think. The Hornets have won four games in a row and with this game being played in Charlotte, the Cavaliers are only favored by four points.

The Hornets have really improved on the defensive end of the floor in the last couple of weeks. They are now ranked 17th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This should be a pace-up game for the Cavaliers, as Charlotte has really made an effort to push the tempo recently. The Cavaliers have an implied team total of 104.3 points, which is right around their average for the season.

LeBron James is always in play when the game is expected to stay competitive. While he can still fill up the stat sheet, he has taken a backseat to Kevin Love in the Cavaliers’ offense this season. At his price and with a full slate of games, James is a borderline elite play at small forward, but certainly not a must start. Kevin Love has averaged 40.4 fantasy points in his last five games and with an increased role in the offense, he’s worth a strong look again tonight. Tristan Thompson remains a high-floor fantasy option while Timofey Mozgov is out. He’s going to play around 35 minutes and should be a lock for double-digit rebounds.

Elite Plays

Kevin Love

FD — $8,300
DK — $8,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 22.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 37.4 | Last Five Games: 40.4

Tristan Thompson

FD — $5,700
DK — $6,000
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.4 | Last Five Games: 10.5
Min/Game — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 27.1

Secondary Plays

LeBron James

FD — $10,100
DK — $9,900
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 36.4 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 45.1 | Last Five Games: 41.7

J.R. Smith

FD — $5,300
DK — $5,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 37.3
FP/Game — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 25.7

Charlotte Hornets (Record: 9-6, Home: 7-1)

The Hornets have won four in a row and seven of their last ten games. They are also 7-1 at home this season. All signs point to the Hornets being competitive in tonight’s matchup against the Cavaliers. While both teams are projected to score over 100 points tonight, this will be a pace-down game for Charlotte.

The Cavaliers have been terrific defensively this season, ranking seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hornets have an implied team total of 100.3 points tonight, which is four points lower than their average on the season.

Nicolas Batum is having a career season under Steve Clifford. The offense basically runs through either Batum or Kemba Walker, rather than just throwing the ball to Al Jefferson in the post. With an ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet, Batum remains an elite play at small forward. He is a better play on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings though, as he is cheaper and we are required to roster two small forwards. Kemba Walker has been playing well recently, but with a price bump, he is more of a secondary play tonight against the Cavaliers.

Elite Plays

Nicolas Batum

FD — $7,000
DK — $7,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.1 | Last Five Games: 17.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 36.9
FP/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 30.9

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

FD — $8,200
DK — $7,500
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 21.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 37.9
FP/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 40.9

Jeremy Lin

FD — $4,700
DK — $4,500
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 17.5
Min/Game — Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 26.5
FP/Game — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 19.4

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Milwaukee Bucks Orlando Magic
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 199.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 97.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 94.80 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 27 4 18 15 22 Opp. Season 6 7 28 24 13
Opp. Last 7 14 3 25 25 29 Opp. Last 7 15 21 29 6 25

Milwaukee Bucks (Record: 6-9, Road: 2-5)

The Bucks just can’t seem to get any sort of winning streak going this season. They have lost six of their last ten games and have dropped to 6-9 on the season. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on the Magic in a game that features a total of only 199 points.

The Magic have improved defensively this season, but they are still ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bucks have an implied team total of 97.5 points, which is lower than their season average and one of the lowest totals on the board tonight.

Despite the favorable matchup on paper, the low team total has me worried about the Bucks tonight. The good news is that Jason Kidd has been suspended for tonight’s game, so we may finally consistent minutes from the starters. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greg Monroe, Jabari Parker, and Jerryd Bayless are all viable tournament options, but none stand out as elite plays with so many games on the schedule tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe

FD — $7,800
DK — $7,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 30.1

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD — $7,000
DK — $6,900
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 20.0
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 31.7

Jabari Parker

FD — $5,300
DK — $4,500
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.0 | Last Five Games: 16.7
Min/Game — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 25.1
FP/Game — Season: 15.4 | Last Five Games: 19.0

Jerryd Bayless

FD — $4,400
DK — $4,400
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 13.2
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 22.3

Orlando Magic (Record: 7-8, Home: 5-3)

The Magic haven’t exactly played the best possible basketball this season, but they can’t be too disappointed with a 7-8 record. They are 5-3 at home, with a chance to improve that record tonight against the Bucks. The Magic are 4-point favorites in what is expected to be a close game throughout.

The Bucks have been atrocious on the defensive end of the floor this season. Despite playing at one of the slowest paces (94.8 possessions per game), the Bucks have still managed to be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. They are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Even though this may be a pace-down game for Orlando, they still have a respectable team total of 101.5 points tonight.

Victor Oladipo came off the bench on Wednesday night, which only muddied the minutes of Scott Skiles’ rotation even more. It’s hard to trust any Magic player in daily fantasy because Skiles is very quick to turn to his bench. Nikola Vucevic minutes are in less jeopardy than the other four starters. He is a borderline elite play against the Bucks, who are the worst rebounding team in the NBA. Evan Fournier and Tobias Harris are viable secondary plays.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic

FD — $7,300
DK — $6,600
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 26.9
FP/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 30.0

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris

FD — $6,600
DK — $6,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 27.5

Evan Fournier

FD — $5,900
DK — $6,600
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 19.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 25.0

Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Washington Wizards Boston Celtics
washingtonnba Vegas Total 210.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 103.8 Team Proj. 106.8
Team Pace 101.80 Team Pace 101.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Kris Humphries Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 2 20 23 18 12 Opp. Season 7 22 30 12 7
Opp. Last 7 12 17 22 22 12 Opp. Last 7 6 12 30 1 10

Washington Wizards (Record: 6-6, Road: 3-3)

The Wizards have lost two games in a row and six of their last ten. They have not gotten off to the start that they were hoping for, especially after sweeping the Raptors in the first round of the playoffs last season. The Wizards are still right in the thick of things in the Eastern Conference, but they need to start winning some games if they want to have any chance of home-court advantage. Tonight the Wizards head to Boston to take on the Celtics.

Despite playing at a fast pace, the Celtics have played some very good defense this season. They are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Despite the tough matchup on paper, this game should be played at a very fast pace. The Wizards have an implied team total of 103.8 points, which is slightly higher than their average on the season.

John Wall has not played well recently, averaging only 30.2 fantasy points in his last five games. Even at a suppressed price, I will only have exposure to him in tournaments. Bradley Beal has been a boom or bust fantasy option this season. He also deserves consideration in tournaments, but he will have to deal with Avery Bradley, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

John Wall

FD — $8,500
DK — $8,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 20.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 30.2

Brad Beal

FD — $6,900
DK — $6,600
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 28.6 | Last Five Games: 22.5

Otto Porter

FD — $5,700
DK — $5,800
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 15.5
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 29.9
FP/Game — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 24.5

Boston Celtics (Record: 8-7, Home: 5-4)

The Celtics continue to be one of the toughest teams to predict. They seem to blowout teams when the game is expected to be close and they seem to struggle when they are large favorites. They almost handed the Sixers their first win of the season, but overcame a five point deficit with just over a minute to play. The Celtics are 3-point favorites tonight against the Celtics in a game that features a total of 210.5 points.

The Wizards have been surprisingly bad on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Celtics have an implied team total of 106.8 points, which is the sixth highest on the board tonight.

Marcus Smart is still out with his leg injury, which solidifies the minutes for both Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley. Thomas has played well as a starter this season, although he has had a couple of duds. John Wall is an underrated defender and at Thomas’s price point, he is more of a tournament play in my eyes. Avery Bradley has averaged 30.5 fantasy points in his last five games and is still affordable across the industry. Jared Sullinger and Joe Crowder round out the fantasy options.

Elite Plays

Avery Bradley

FD — $6,200
DK — $6,400
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 24.1 | Last Five Games: 30.5

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

FD — $7,300
DK — $7,700
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.9 | Last Five Games: 25.8
Min/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 31.3
FP/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 32.2

Jared Sullinger

FD — $5,800
DK — $6,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 18.3
Min/Game — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 26.8
FP/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 25.8

Jae Crowder

FD — $4,900
DK — $5,700
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 14.6
Min/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 28.3
FP/Game — Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 20.9

Miami Heat at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Miami Heat New York Knicks
miaminba Vegas Total 187.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 187.5
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 94.8 Team Proj. 92.8
Team Pace 96.10 Team Pace 96.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Gerald Green Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 13 18 5 2 11 Opp. Season 3 3 20 10 15
Opp. Last 7 16 24 5 5 24 Opp. Last 7 3 6 17 13 27

Miami Heat (Record: 9-5, Road: 1-3)

The Heat have played very well this season, but a part of that has to do with their favorable schedule. This is only their fifth game on the road, as they are currently sporting an 8-2 record at home. The Knicks are no longer a team that opponents can automatically expect a win against. Tonight’s game should be close, as the Heat are only favored by two points.

The Knicks aren’t a team that we need to go out of our way to target players against. On the season, they are ranked 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Heat are only projected to score 94.8 points tonight, which is the fourth lowest on the schedule tonight.

Even though this game should be competitive, it is one of my least favorite to target for fantasy purposes. Luol Deng is not expected to play tonight, which does open the door for another start from Gerald Green. He played well in his spot start the other night, but we can’t expect him to play 38 minutes again. Green is a nice value tonight, but we should temper our expectations. Hassan Whiteside has the upside that we are looking for in tournaments, but dollar for dollar, there are better plays in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside

FD — $8,500
DK — $8,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.7 | Last Five Games: 17.0
Min/Game — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 38.8

Gerald Green

FD — $3,500
DK — $3,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 19.5
Min/Game — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 20.8
FP/Game — Season: 12.5 | Last Five Games: 13.5

New York Knicks (Record: 8-8, Home: 3-4)

The Knicks no longer look like they are in rebuilding mode. As long as they can stay healthy, they should be able to challenge for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks are listed as 2-point underdogs tonight against the Heat at home.

The Heat have been dominant defensively this season. They are ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Heat also have one of the slowest paces of play. The Knicks have an implied team total of 92.8 points tonight, which is the lowest on the schedule. Kristaps Porzingis is the only fantasy option on my radar in this one. He has seen a nice boost in minutes (33.3) and production (38.5 fantasy points) over his last five games. However, given his price and his matchup, I see him as a secondary play tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

FD — $7,100
DK — $7,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 33.3
FP/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 38.5

Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Memphis Grizzlies
atlantanba Vegas Total 195.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 96.3 Team Proj. 99.3
Team Pace 98.90 Team Pace 97.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 16 16 16 23 6 Opp. Season 14 28 12 19 26
Opp. Last 7 4 28 12 2 17 Opp. Last 7 8 29 20 21 4

Atlanta Hawks (Record: 10-7, Road: 4-4)

If you would have told me at the start of the season that a 10-7 team would be seventh in the Eastern Conference standings, I would have thought you were crazy. The East is markedly better this season. The Hawks haven’t been playing their best basketball recently, as they have lost six of their last ten games. They have a tough test ahead of them tonight, as they head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies continue to improve defensively. A couple of weeks ago, they had one of the worst defenses in the NBA, but they are now ranked 12th in points allowed per game an tenth in fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks have an implied team total of only 96.3 points, which is six points lower than their season average. I typically like to avoid taking players against the Grizzlies, especially when there are a lot of games on the schedule. Thabo Sefolosha could be worth a look if Kent Bazemore (questionable) is unable to suit up, but he is the only fantasy option of note here.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Thabo Sefolosha

FD — $4,300
DK — $4,500
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.4 | Last Five Games: 11.7
Min/Game — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 27.7
FP/Game — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 22.2

Memphis Grizzlies (Record: 9-7, Home: 5-2)

The Grizzlies have played much better basketball recently, winning two games in a row and six of their last ten. They are listed as 3-point favorites tonight against the Hawks in a game that features a total of 195.5 points.

The Hawks have been mediocre defensively this season. They are ranked between 13th and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Grizzlies don’t have the best matchup on the board, but they have an implied team total of 99.3 points, which is three points higher than their average on the season.

Zach Randolph is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, after missing the last four games with a knee injury. If he is unable to play, Matt Barnes, Jeff Green, and Marc Gasol would all see a fantasy boost. Green is a viable option even if Randolph suits up. He has really played well over his last five games, averaging 27.4 fantasy points per contest. Gasol is also a strong play, as the Hawks have been one of the worst teams at defending centers this season.

Elite Plays

Marc Gasol

FD — $7,800
DK — $7,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 16.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 37.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 33.4

Jeff Green

FD — $4,800
DK — $5,100
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.1 | Last Five Games: 16.8
Min/Game — Season: 26.5 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 27.4

Secondary Plays

Mike Conley

FD — $7,000
DK — $6,900
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 32.1
FP/Game — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 35.8

Matt Barnes

FD — $4,000
DK — $3,600
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 14.1
Min/Game — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 16.6 | Last Five Games: 22.7

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious