NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-10 23:14:17

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Denver at Indiana

• Vegas Line – Indiana -10.5, 198 Over/Under
• Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
• Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

Denver

The Nuggets not only have to face the league’s best defense (Pacers are holding opponents to only 90 PPG), but they have to do it without their PG Ty Lawson. He has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest. Randy Foye will slide over and start at PG and Quincy Miller will draw the start at SG. Evan Fournier also figures to see a nice fantasy boost in Lawson’s absence. While these three should all see a boost in minutes, I’m not sure it will translate into more fantasy production against this tough defense. Foye is probably the best option of the three.

As far as the big men of the Nuggets, it’s probably safe to avoid all of them tonight. J.J. Hickson, Kenneth Faried, and Timofey Mozgov face one of the toughest front-courts in the entire NBA. Wilson Chandler will also be stuck in a less than favorable matchup against Paul George who is known as one of the best two-way players in the league.

Indiana

The impact of potential blowouts on fantasy production has been widely debated, but recent evidence (thanks to Ethan and RG) has shown that a potential blowout impacts the underdog much more than it does the favorite. Last night’s Clippers/Sixers game is a great example. While that game is an extreme example, we had the entire Sixers team under-perform in terms of fantasy production and we had Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan both exceed their needed fantasy output while only playing limited minutes.

The research that went into this has really changed how I treat games that have high lines. Instead of avoiding the game completely, I think we only have to avoid the underdogs. Factoring that into tonight’s matchup, The Pacers are in a very favorable position against the Nuggets. The Nuggets are a fast-paced team (99 possessions per game) and are ranked 21st or worse defensively against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers.

• Paul George – All five starters on the Pacers are in play tonight, but Hill and West are my two least favorite as their prices have really come up across the industry. George appears to have broken out of his slump. He has scored 35 and 38 FP’s in his last two games and should be in for a great game against the uptempo Nuggets. George has a usage rate of 28.4% which is near the top of the league (usage rate is basically the % of a team’s offensive possessions that a player uses when he is on the court).

• Lance Stephenson – Now is a great to buy low on Stephenson. After his injury, his price is depressed across the industry. Before his injury, Stephenson was averaging close to 35 FP’s per game over his previous 6 contests. I love his matchup against the combination of Miller, Foye, and Fournier. He is one of the best rebounding guards in the game.

• Roy Hibbert – Hibbert makes a great contrarian play tonight. It’s not that he has a bad matchup, but he has been quiet over his past 5 games and most people will be looking to the bigger names at the Center position tonight. The Nuggets are not a great rebounding team and are ranked dead last against Centers over the last 15 days.

New Orleans at Toronto

• Vegas Line – Toronto -7, 193 Over/Under
• New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca
• Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas

New Orleans

The Pelicans are fairly big underdogs tonight in what is expected to be a slow-paced game. The Pelicans and Raptors both only average 94 possessions per game which is well below the league average. The Raptors have been solid as a team defensively this season, but have recently struggled against bigs ranking 21st and 25th against opposing PF’s and Center over the last 15 days.

I think there are two decent fantasy options here, but neither of which are close to being my favorite plays of the night. Anthony Davis has topped 41 FP’s in 6 of his last 7 games and could find some success against this interior of the Raptors that has struggled defensively lately. I also think Brian Roberts is worth mentioning, he has looked very comfortable as the starting PG lately and has topped 25 FP’s in each of his last 3 games.

Toronto

The Raptors face a Pelicans defense that has been very consistent this season in terms of fantasy points allowed to certain positions. The Pelicans have defended SG’s and SF’s well, but are ranked 20th or worse at defending the other 3 positions on the floor. As far as the bigs of the Raptors, it’s really hard to get a clear picture on a nightly basis with Johnson, Valanciunas, Patterson, and Hansbrough all fighting for minutes. Patterson may be the most talented of the bunch, but he rarely sees more than 25 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas makes a site-specific play, but I do like the matchup against Ajinca.

• DeMar DeRozan – Even with a tough matchup on paper, I really like DeRozan tonight for cash games. He has been a lock for close to 35 fantasy points almost every time he steps onto the floor. DeRozan has a 28.2% usage rate which is a lot higher than you might imagine. He is one of those players that constantly flies under the radar, but continues to post solid fantasy production.

• Kyle Lowry – Lowry is one of those players that offers extremely high upside. He has topped 42 FP’s in 5 of his last 9 games and is really a difference maker in leagues when he has those big outings. The Pelicans have not defended the PG position well this season and Lowry should be in for another nice outing in this one.

San Antonio at Detroit

• Vegas Line – San Antonio -3, 206 Over/Under
• San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Belinelli-Diaw-Duncan
• Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

San Antonio

The Spurs are expected to get Marco Belinelli back for tonight’s game. Not only that, but Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are absent from the injury report and both should be a go for tonight’s game against the Pistons. This is a great matchup for the Spurs, the Pistons are a fast-paced team (97) and allow 102 PPG to opponents this season.

Looking at the DvP rankings, the Pistons have not defended one position well all season long. Andre Drummond has picked up his defense of late, but it’s hard to trust any of the Spurs Centers as viable fantasy options anyway. Danny Green, Marco Belinelli, and Patty Mills should all see around 30 minutes tonight and all make decent value plays. If I had to choose a favorite, it would have to be Danny Green who has scored over 22 FP’s in 3 of his last 4 games.

• Tony Parker – Parker is one of the better plays at PG tonight. Jennings has never been known as a great defender and Parker should be able to take advantage of his favorable matchup. Parker is pretty cheap across the industry (only $9,100 on SS) and I think he has a great chance of topping 30 FP’s here.

• Tim Duncan – Duncan’s price has gone up across the industry and he may be unplayable on a couple of sites. However, he has a terrific matchup against the Pistons who have not been great at defending the paint despite their load of talent down low. Duncan has been red hot lately and should have another big game tonight.

Detroit

The Pistons fired their head coach and John Loyer will take over as the interim head coach. In these type of situations, the interim typically just tries to keep the team afloat. I expect big minutes from all of the starters going forward because Loyer will likely not have the freedom to experiment with different lineups and rotations. Loyer has already said that he will keep the starting lineup the same.

The matchup for the Pistons is actually a pretty decent one. Both teams are projected to score over 100 points tonight and the Spurs have really dropped in the defensive rankings after a strong start to the season. Kyle Singler and Rodney Stuckey both make nice value plays at SG, Brandon Jennings should be able to continue his high level of play, and Josh Smith continues to make a nice upside play.

• Andre Drummond – Drummond has been matchup proof all season long and I have a hard time seeing the combination of Diaw, Ayres, and Duncan keeping him off the glass tonight. Drummond is averaging close to 15 and 15 over the past couple of weeks and he should be in for another big game tonight. His biggest weakness is foul trouble and he’s really managed to keep that under control lately.

Boston at Milwaukee

• Vegas Line – Boston -1, 191 Over/Under
• Boston Proj. Starters – Bradley-Bayless-Green-Sullinger-Bass
• Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Henson-Sanders

Boston

This game has the lowest total of the night, but a total of 191 points isn’t exactly one that you need to avoid. While both of these teams play at a slower than average pace, neither team defends very well. Rajon Rondo is very close to being cleared to play in back to back games, but he has not yet reached that point and he will get the night off tonight. That means that Phil Pressey and Jerryd Bayless will both see a fantasy boost. Of the two, Bayless has the higher upside.

The Bucks are not a great rebounding team and have struggled to defend bigs all season long. However, at this point, Sullinger is the only big man that we can trust on the Celtics. Bass, Olynyk, and Humphries are all fighting for minutes on a nightly basis. Jeff Green has a favorable matchup on paper, but as most of you have experienced first hand, he is a very inconsistent player. I’ll label him as a nice GPP option tonight.

• Jared Sullinger – Sully is the one big man that is seeing consistent minutes on the Celtics. He has played at least 33 minutes in each of his last 5 games. He has a great matchup tonight against a bad rebounding team. His price has gone up on most sites, but I think he can push for 30+ FP’s in this favorable matchup.

Milwaukee

The Bucks are a dumpster fire right now, but recent injuries have put some of them in play. In their last game, the Bucks were without Mayo, Butler, Sanders, and Udoh. There haven’t been any updates on any of these players yet today, but their absence would give a nice fantasy boost to players such as John Henson, Khris Middleton, and Nate Wolters. Henson and Middleton will both be on my radar tonight if those players mentioned earlier don’t suit up.

• Brandon Knight – Knight is in play regardless of injuries. He has topped 30 FP’s in 4 straight games and should have a nice matchup against the combination of Pressey and Bayless. Avery Bradley could spend some time on him, but I’m not too worried about that. Knight can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and very affordable across the board.

Houston at Minnesota

• Vegas Line – Houston -5, Over/Under 208
• Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
• Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Budinger-Brewer-Love-Turiaf

Houston

The line for this game opened at -2 and has already moved up to -5. This makes me question Love’s status for tonight. There hasn’t been an update today, but there will likely be one well before tip-off. The Rockets have a very favorable matchup tonight against the T-Wolves who love to push the pace almost as much as the Rockets do. The Wolves are allowing 102 PPG to opponents and are ranked 19th or worse in terms of fantasy points allowed to PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s.

Even though Dwight Howard has a tough matchup on paper, I think he is in play tonight against Turiaf. If he can manage to get Turiaf in foul trouble, the Wolves don’t have anyone else that can defend Dwight. Chandler Parsons makes a great cash game play across the industry. Jeremy Lin has really played well lately and makes a solid play off the bench.

• James Harden – Harden’s usage % this season has gone down with the addition of Dwight Howard, but it’s still at 26.9% which is very high. Harden has a solid matchup against Budinger and the Wolves who have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing SG’s this season. He will be on most of my lineups tonight.

• Terrence Jones – Jones is one of my favorite plays tonight. His price is depressed on most fantasy sites, he has a favorable matchup, and he posted a solid stat line of 18/10/3 in his last meeting against the Wolves. If Turiaf can slow Dwight down, this could be one of those monster games from T-Jones.

Minnesota

The T-Wolves will be without Nikola Pekovic again tonight and could be without Kevin Love, he’s currently listed as questionable so make sure to check the injury news for an update on his status closer to tip-off. If he doesn’t suit up, both Ronny Turiaf and Dante Cunningham would make excellent plays on all sites. The Wolves will also be without Kevin Martin who has a fracture in his thumb, this gives both Chase Budinger and Corey Brewer a nice fantasy boost.

The Rockets average 98 possessions per game and are giving up 101 PPG to opponents. Both are favorable for the Wolves. This should be a very fast-paced, high scoring game. If Kevin Love does play, he would make a great fantasy option, but we obviously won’t know if he will suit up until later. Ricky Rubio will be matched up with Beverley who is a solid defender, but he still carries some value as a GPP play.

• Corey Brewer – With all of the injuries to the Wolves, Brewer has been asked to play 39+ minutes in each of his last two games. He should get a large share of minutes again tonight and I don’t mind him as a punt option at the SF position. In the NBA, minutes are king and he should get plenty of them.

• Chase Budinger – Budinger got the start for Martin the other night and will likely draw another start after an excellent game in which he posted 19 points and 5 rebounds. He is close to minimum salary on most sites and is one of the best values on the board tonight.

Philadelphia at Golden State

• Vegas Line – Golden State -15, Over/Under 215
• Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut

Philadelphia

We were faced with this exact same scenario last night with the Sixers and Clippers and that had to be one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen by an NBA team. The Sixers were down by 40 with 10 minutes to go in the third quarter. Now they have to travel to Oakland and take on one of the best homecourt teams in the league. This game has blowout written all over it once again and considering that this is a back to back situation, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Sixers coach pull his starters early if they get down big. I will not be using any of the Sixers in my cash games tonight.

Golden State

Even though this game will likely turn into a blowout, we saw the type of numbers that you can put up against this defense in limited minutes (Griffin and Jordan last night). Like I mentioned above, the favorite’s fantasy potential in potential blowout games typically isn’t as hurt nearly as bad as the underdogs. David Lee and Andrew Bogut are both questionable for tonight’s game, if they can’t suit up, give a nice fantasy boost to Jermaine O’Neal, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green. Andre Iguodala makes a great play at the SF position, but Curry and Thompson are my two top plays here.

• Stephen Curry – We all know the upside that Curry provides and now he gets to face the leagues worst defense. He may only end up playing 3 quarters, but I have no doubt that he will put up monster numbers in that amount of playing time. Curry should be treated as the top overall fantasy option tonight.

• Klay Thompson – I love taking Klay in fast-paced games and when he is at home. We get both of those tonight against the Sixers. Klay doesn’t need much room to shoot and the Sixers make it a habit of giving their opponents plenty of room. Don’t be surprised to see him top 25 actual points tonight.