NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 3rd - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-03 21:32:56

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San Antonio at New Orleans

• Vegas Line – San Antonio -4, 193.5 Over/Under
• San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Mills-Belinelli-Diaw-Duncan
• New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Stiemsma

San Antonio

The Spurs are 4 point favorites tonight against the Pelicans. The last meeting between these teams went similar to the Vegas line as the Spurs ended up with a 6 point victory. The Spurs will be without Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, and Kawhi Leonard once again so look for guys like Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli to continue to see extended minutes.

The Pelicans have not been great defensively this season, but they have picked it up over the last 15 days as they are ranked 8th or better against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s. Anthony Davis is really starting to become a solid defender and it has been hard for PF’s to pad their rebounding totals with him in the lineup. I think Tim Duncan will have a hard time making value against the BROW tonight.

• Tony Parker – Parker put up 39 fantasy points in his last meeting against the Pelicans and I think he can top 30 again here tonight. The Pelicans are ranked 28th at defending the PG position over the last 15 days and Parker may have to shoulder the load offensively if Duncan can’t get things going.

New Orleans

The Pelicans have a less than favorable matchup tonight against the Spurs who are ranked 12th or better at defending every position on the floor except for PG’s. This is one of those situations where none of the matchups really stand out to me. I don’t mind the plays of Anthony Davis, Tyreke Evans, and Eric Gordon, but I have found better options in their price ranges. I think that most of the DFS public will be with me on this one and the Pelicans will all have low % of ownership.

Memphis at Oklahoma City

• Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -8, 191 Over/Under
• Memphis Proj. Starters – Calathes-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
• Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins

Memphis

The Grizzlies are back to playing like the Grizzlies with Marc Gasol back in the lineup. They only average 92 possessions per game which is tied for the lowest in the NBA. By the end of the season, I expect them to be the slowest paced team and have a top 3 defense. A slow paced, defensive game is usually not what we like to target in DFS, but the injury to Mike Conley definitely opens some options up on the Grizzlies tonight.

• Nick Calathes – Calathes will likely be the most popular pick across the industry tonight. He is priced close to minimum salary on almost every site and he is coming off of a 34 FP outing in his first start. This isn’t one of those situations where you should avoid him and hope that he has a bad game. For the price, he’s the top value play of the night.

• Courtney Lee – Lee on the other hand will likely be much lower owned and I actually think that he will have a better game than Calathes. While he may be a bit more expensive than Calathes, you can take them both for extremely cheap. Both should easily top 20 FP’s and I will likely be using the combination of the two on most sites.

Oklahoma City

When you describe the Grizzlies, there are two common traits that everyone will come up with: they play at a slow pace and they have a great defense. That is usually a fantasy value killer for their opponents. The Grizzlies rarely, and I mean rarely let their opponents score over 100 points when Gasol is in the lineup. You can say that good offense beats good defense, but Kevin Durant and the Thunder just won’t see enough possessions for me to warrant consideration as viable fantasy options.

Cleveland at Dallas

• Vegas Line – Dallas -9, 205 Over/Under
• Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miles-Deng-Thompson-Zeller
• Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

Cleveland

The Cavs and Mavericks are both right around the league average for pace of play. The Cavs average 95 possessions per game and the Mavs average 96. The big story in Cleveland right now is the unhappiness of Kyrie Iring in Cleveland. Jarrett Jack got the start over C.J. Miles the other night because coach Woodson says that Irving can sometimes dribble too much.

This is a situation to monitor carefully as Kyrie can either take it and be motivated by it, or he can feed into it and let it affect his attitude and his play. I like to treat these situations conservatively, so I will take a wait and see approach with Kyrie. The only fantasy option that I see on the Cavs tonight is Tyler Zeller that’s if, and only if, Anderson Varejao has to sit out again. He is a game-time decision tonight.

Dallas

The Mavericks have a favorable matchup tonight, but when a team is dealing with internal strife, it can end up showing up on the floor. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cavs come out and put up a complete dud in this one. Kyrie isn’t happy, Waiters hasn’t been happy all season, and they may be without their glue guy Varejao.

If the Mavericks were at full strength, I would likely avoid this situation altogether, but Shawn Marion has been ruled out of tonight’s game which means Jae Crowder will see another start at SF. He makes a very nice value play if you want to save money at the SF position. Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon both have favorable matchups as well, but I only recommend taking them if you think this game stays somewhat close.

L.A.Clippers at Denver

• Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -2, 216 Over/Under
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Collison-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
• Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers and Nuggets game has the highest total of the night. Both of these teams average at least 97 possessions per game and there should be an abundance of fantasy points to go around in this game. The Nuggets are ranked 18th or worse against every position on the floor except for PG’s. Even with an average matchup, I think Darren Collison is in play. He has been rock solid as the starter with Paul out and he should continue to post 25+ FP’s tonight.

• Blake Griffin – Griffin is one of my favorite plays tonight. The Nuggets have been awful at defending talented big men all season long and with Paul out of the lineup, Griffin has the ball in his hands more often. Griffin doesn’t score less than 30 FP’s. He is a low risk option that has a ton of upside. Those are hard to come by these days.

• DeAndre Jordan – I’m guessing many Grinders will be asking themselves the same question tonight. Jordan or Drummond tonight? Both are priced similarly across the industry and both will likely be popular plays tonight. I’m going to give the slight edge to DeAndre as the Nuggets are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and DeAndre averages over 14 per game.

Denver

The Nuggets should get Ty Lawson back tonight which should really help this offense. Like I mentioned above, this game is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night. The Clippers have defended PG’s well this season, but have struggled against the other 4 positions. Kenneth Faried makes an interesting GPP play, he has really played well at home and we’ve all seen the upside that he has when he sees big minutes. I also like the matchup for J.J. Hickson, he is finally seeing a consistent 30+ minutes per game.

• Wilson Chandler – Chandler has scored at least 18 fantasy points in each of his last 9 games and has averaged well over 25 fantasy points per game in that stretch. He has a nice matchup against the Clippers and gives you a nice option at the SF position that can sometimes be hard to fill. He is a very safe cash game play tonight.

Toronto at Utah

• Vegas Line – Toronto -4, 192 Over/Under
• Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
• Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors

Toronto

The Raptors are 4 point favorites tonight against the Jazz. The Raptors have been playing some great basketball and have a favorable matchup against the Jazz who are going to be short-handed once again tonight. Over the last 15 days, the Jazz are ranked 21st or worse against PG’s, SG’s, PF’s, and Centers. I’m going to be avoiding the Raptors bigs again tonight though, there just aren’t enough minutes to go around with all of the talented bigs that they have.

• Kyle Lowry – Lowry has a great matchup tonight against Burke and the Jazz. They are ranked 24th against the PG position over the last 15 days and Lowry is one of those few players that fills up all areas of the stat sheet.

• DeMar DeRozan – DeMar is an All-Star. I don’t think anyone could have predicted that at the beginning of the year. He has become one of the best scorers in the game and he’s been able to have success both at home and on the road. I like the matchup against the Jazz and think he should be in for another big game. His price on DK makes him a great play on that site.

Utah

The Jazz will be without Derrick Favors and Jeremy Evans tonight which means Enes Kanter and Marvin Williams should both see major minutes. The problem is that they will be running into the buzz saw that is the Raptors big men. They are ranked 4th and 10th at defending the PF and Center positions this season. I don’t think that means you have to avoid Kanter and Williams, but it does hurt their fantasy appeal a bit. Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke both make interesting plays here, but neither really stand out to me as must plays.

Chicago at Sacramento

• Vegas Line – Chicago -2, 191 Over/Under
• Chicago Proj. Starters – Augustin-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
• Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Gay-Thompson-Cousins

Chicago

The Bulls have a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings. Not only do they play at a fast pace, but they are really struggling defensively as evidenced by their DvP rankings of 14th or worse against every position on the floor. Joakim Noah should be a monster on the glass tonight, use him on sites where his price is affordable. Jimmy Butler continues to see 40+ minutes, he makes a nice cash game play.

• D.J. Augustin – A lot of people are avoiding Augustin now that Hinrich is back, but his minutes haven’t taken a dip at all. He is clearly this team’s starting PG and I love his matchup tonight. His price is cheap across the board too. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict him to top 30 FP’s tonight.

Sacramento

It sounds like DeMarcus Cousins is another game-time decision for tonight’s game. That doesn’t really impact anything though. The Bulls are ranked 11th or better at defending all 5 positions. With 10 other games on the schedule, I think there are better options elsewhere.