NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 15th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons – 12:30 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.5 | Vegas Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.3 | Implied Team Total | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 12 | 29 | 13 | 11 | DvP | 19 | 15 | 25 | 15 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 20 | 12 | 27 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 13 | 10 | 9 | 21 | 8 | |
Charlotte Hornets
The tradition of daytime NBA DFS continues on MLK Day. We have seven early games and four late games. The slates are split on most sites and the main two (FanDuel and DraftKings) did not include the first game in their early slates. The first game of the day starts bright and early. The Hornets travel to Detroit to take on a Pistons’ team that is ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Hornets have an implied total of 101.3 points, which is one of the lowest on the slate and four points below their season average.
Kemba Walker draws a favorable matchup against Ish Smith, but the Pistons as a whole are ranked sixth in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Nicolas Batum has been inconsistent and will draw the defense of Avery Bradley. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb continue to cut into each other’s playing time and production. The same can be said about Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky. Dwight Howard is an intriguing tournament play. While Andre Drummond isn’t a bad defender, he rarely leaves the paint, which could be good for Howard’s rebounding upside.
Notable Injuries
None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (18 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -3.5 (19 of 24)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $14,800 | 36.7 | 2.8 | 34.7 | -1.2 | 1.06 | 26.6% | 19 | 6 | 18 | ||
| Nicolas Batum | $13,200 | 24.1 | -3.4 | 31.2 | 0.9 | 0.77 | 17.6% | 2 | 12 | 20 | ||
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $10,700 | 21.2 | -2.0 | 26.4 | -1.5 | 0.80 | 15.6% | 22 | 29 | 12 | ||
| Marvin Williams | $9,500 | 19.4 | 4.6 | 25.8 | -1.8 | 0.75 | 12.7% | 14 | 13 | 27 | ||
| Dwight Howard | $15,500 | 34.8 | 2.2 | 30.2 | 1.5 | 1.15 | 19.5% | 12 | 11 | 3 | ||
| Frank Kaminsky | $10,900 | 19.0 | -3.3 | 23.3 | 0.0 | 0.81 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
| Jeremy Lamb | $12,200 | 25.6 | -2.6 | 26.0 | -3.9 | 0.99 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons and Hornets are two teams that are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. This game projects to have an average pace at best, which should result in middling fantasy production. The good news is that the spread is set at only three points, though the game has a total of only 205 points. The Pistons have an implied total of 103.8 points, which is slightly above their season average.
Ish Smith has played well as the Pistons’ starting point guard, but he hasn’t shown much of a ceiling. He’s a safe bet for 25 fantasy points, but probably isn’t the player with 40 fantasy point upside you are looking for in tournaments. Avery Bradley is finally playing well. I repeat, Avery Bradley is finally playing well. While that’s surprising in and of itself, I have actually been targeting him with success (insert mind blown GIF). Bradley should play all of the minutes that he can handle in a decent matchup against the Hornets.
Tobias Harris draws a nice matchup against the likes of Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky. He’s also in good form over his last five games, averaging 31 minutes and 34 fantasy points. Harris is far from a core target, but he’s viable if you are stuck at power forward and need a player in his price range. Andre Drummond has scored between 34 and 39 fantasy points in each of his last four meetings against Dwight Howard. While that’s decent fantasy production, it doesn’t quite pay off his salary.
Notable Injuries
Stanley Johnson (Questionable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.3 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (15 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (11 of 24)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $12,200 | 19.8 | 6.5 | 21.8 | 5.6 | 0.91 | 23.9% | 22 | 19 | 13 | ||
| Avery Bradley | $11,100 | 23.7 | 0.3 | 31.6 | 0.4 | 0.75 | 21.3% | 11 | 15 | 10 | ||
| Reggie Bullock | $8,000 | 13.5 | 1.2 | 23.1 | 7.2 | 0.58 | 11.3% | 21 | 25 | 9 | ||
| Tobias Harris | $13,400 | 29.3 | 4.4 | 32.7 | -2.0 | 0.90 | 21.1% | 21 | 15 | 21 | ||
| Andre Drummond | $16,900 | 43.9 | 3.8 | 32.7 | 0.1 | 1.34 | 18.8% | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Elite Plays – Avery Bradley
Secondary Plays – Ish Smith, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers – 1:00 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.5 |  | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 110.8 | Implied Team Total | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 22 | 23 | 17 | 24 | DvP | 7 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 27 | 1 | 27 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 23 | 2 | 10 | 18 | |
Toronto Raptors
At the time of writing this (Sunday night), we don’t have a spread for this game. The oddsmakers are waiting to see if Kyle Lowry is going to play. I’ll update the line in the morning, but wanted to give everyone a heads up as to why the tables look a little off. The Raptors draw a mediocre matchup against the Sixers. While they play at a fast pace, Philadelphia is ranked sixth in defensive efficiency and first in rebounding differential.
Lowry has missed the last three games with a tailbone injury. If he is able to suit up, he makes for an intriguing tournament play. If he is ruled out, Delon Wright would draw another start at point guard. Wright is still only $4,600 on FanDuel and would become a core play in all formats. Fred VanVleet would also become an intriguing tournament play off the bench. He has scored 36 and 26 fantasy points in his last two games with Lowry out.
UPDATE: Kyle Lowry expected to play on Monday.
DeMar DeRozan will likely draw the defense of Robert Covington, but that hasn’t slowed him down in the past. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in each of his last five game against Covington, including a 62 fantasy points outing earlier this season. DeRozan also averages 1.41 fantasy points per minute with a 41% usage rate with Lowry off the floor this season. If Lowry is out, DeRozan will become an elite play in all formats.
This isn’t the greatest matchup for the Raptors’ frontcourt. The Sixers are one of the best rebounding teams in basketball and are ranked 12th and 10th in efficiency against power forwards and centers. However, Serge Ibaka (+0.20) and Jonas Valanciunas (+0.17) both see big fantasy boosts with Lowry off the floor. If he is ruled out, Ibaka and Valanciunas would become borderline elite plays on FanDuel.
Notable Injuries
Kyle Lowry (Questionable)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 112.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (5 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 (18 of 24)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.1 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,200 | $7,500 | $14,500 | 35.2 | 1.1 | 32.8 | -0.4 | 1.07 | 21.4% | 8 | 17 | 1 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $9,200 | $9,100 | $17,000 | 39.9 | 1.4 | 34.6 | 0.2 | 1.15 | 28.9% | 26 | 22 | 27 |
| OG Anunoby | $4,000 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 12.8 | -0.4 | 21.7 | 3.4 | 0.59 | 10.7% | 13 | 23 | 1 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,700 | $6,100 | $13,100 | 27.1 | 2.5 | 28.4 | 1.2 | 0.95 | 17.4% | 12 | 17 | 27 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,400 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 23.3 | 8.1 | 21.0 | 0.9 | 1.11 | 17.9% | 10 | 24 | 1 |
| Delon Wright | $4,600 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 19.9 | 2.2 | 21.5 | 2.6 | 0.92 | 16.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Fred VanVleet | $5,000 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 16.1 | 5.1 | 18.1 | 2.4 | 0.89 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The picks below are assuming that Kyle Lowry is active.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers draw a difficult matchup against the Raptors, who are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. It’s not all doom and gloom though, as the game projects to be one of the fastest-paced of the slate and the game is being played in Philadelphia. For DFS purposes, I would consider this to be a mediocre matchup for the Sixers as a whole.
Ben Simmons isn’t seeing the 36-38 minutes a night like he was earlier in the season. Over his last five games, he is averaging 30 minutes. He’s been very efficient during that stretch, but the Raptors have been tough on opposing point guards. J.J. Redick has had a high floor all season and he draws the best matchup of the five starters. On the season, Toronto is ranked 27th in efficiency against shooting guards. T.J. McConnell has some tournament appeal off the bench. He is averaging 26 minutes over his last five games.
Robert Covington is at one of the cheapest price points that we’ve seen all season. His recent form is a small concern, but he could play a few extra minutes tonight. He will be tasked with defending DeMar DeRozan. The rule with Dario Saric is simple — play him when Joel Embiid is out (averaging 35 fantasy points per game). With Embiid active on Monday, Saric is an easy fade. Embiid is expensive, but he has a high floor and a high ceiling. He’s an extremely tough cover for Jonas Valanciunas.
Notable Injuries
Amir Johnson (Questionable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (8 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (15 of 24)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $8,500 | $8,400 | $14,900 | 42.2 | -2.8 | 35.4 | -5.5 | 1.19 | 23.3% | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,500 | $5,600 | $12,300 | 25.9 | 1.9 | 32.7 | -4.4 | 0.79 | 19.2% | 27 | 13 | 23 |
| Robert Covington | $5,600 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 29.1 | -8.8 | 32.2 | -3.0 | 0.90 | 15.6% | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Dario Saric | $5,700 | $6,200 | $12,900 | 26.9 | 4.4 | 30.4 | -0.7 | 0.88 | 17.8% | 14 | 14 | 10 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,500 | $10,300 | $17,800 | 45.3 | -2.7 | 31.2 | -0.8 | 1.45 | 27.3% | 6 | 13 | 18 |
| T.J. McConnell | $4,400 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 21.1 | 0.6 | 24.5 | 1.7 | 0.86 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Joel Embiid
Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons, J.J. Redick, Robert Covington, T.J. McConnell
Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards – 2:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Malcolm Brogdon | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 7 | 19 | 5 | 7 | DvP | 11 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 23 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 9 | 11 | 1 | 18 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 11 | 26 | 27 | 6 | 2 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have lost five of their last ten games and come into today’s contest as 5-point underdogs against the Wizards. Washington plays at a relatively fast pace, but they have an underrated defense. On the season, the Wizards are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. The Bucks have an implied total of 104.8 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
On paper, there aren’t any exploitable matchup against the Wizards. They are ranked 14th or better in efficiency against all positions other than small forward. When it comes to DvP, they are ranked first in fantasy points allowed to small forwards. Eric Bledsoe is an easy fade given his price, matchup, and position. Malcolm Brogdon has similar upside and he’s considerably cheaper. Over his last five games, Brogdon is averaging 36 minutes and 28 fantasy points.
Khris Middleton’s dud against the Warriors on Friday hurt my heart, but like Gloria Gaynor, I will survive. I had a suspicion that his recent dip production had something to do with Brogdon entering the starting lineup, but that’s not the case. Middleton actually sees a usage and fantasy point per minute boost with Brogdon on the floor. I’ll continue to buy low on Middleton in tournaments, as it’s only a matter of time before he checks out of his slump.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings if you compare his salary to earlier in the season. He has plenty of upside, but like Middleton, he’s been in a slump of his own. I have interest in Giannis in tournaments, but there are better cash game targets in the early slate. John Henson is a sneaky play in the frontcourt. Over the last five games, he is averaging 28 minutes and 27 fantasy points.
Notable Injuries
None
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.0 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (11 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (17 of 24)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,500 | $6,900 | $14,500 | 33.1 | -0.7 | 31.0 | -0.7 | 1.07 | 24.2% | 8 | 14 | 9 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,500 | $5,400 | $10,600 | 24.7 | 3.7 | 31.0 | 5.0 | 0.80 | 18.2% | 6 | 7 | 11 |
| Khris Middleton | $6,600 | $6,700 | $12,200 | 33.8 | -5.9 | 37.0 | -1.1 | 0.91 | 22.3% | 14 | 19 | 1 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $10,500 | $10,200 | $19,900 | 52.6 | -11.5 | 37.4 | -2.8 | 1.41 | 28.0% | 22 | 5 | 18 |
| John Henson | $5,100 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 23.3 | 3.6 | 24.5 | 3.3 | 0.95 | 13.0% | 13 | 7 | 9 |
| Thon Maker | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 13.3 | -1.6 | 18.4 | -1.5 | 0.72 | 11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Khris Middleton (GPP), Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (Cash), Giannis Antetokounmpo (Cash), Malcolm Brogdon, John Henson
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have won seven of their last ten games, but have actually dropped in the standings during that stretch. The Heat have been on an absolute tear, but we’ll get to them later. The Wizards draw a favorable matchup against the Bucks, who are ranked 25th in defensive efficiency and 26th in rebounding differential. Washington has an implied total of 109.8 points, which is one of the highest in the early slate and three points above their season average.
John Wall doesn’t have the best individual matchup, but the combination of his recent form and the fact that the Wizards’ implied total is so high might be tough to pass up. Wall is averaging 53 fantasy points over his last five games and is one of my favorite superstars to pay up for in the early slate. Bradley Beal has the better matchup, but I typically side with Wall when I’m choosing between the two. Beal has been terrific recently, but I have a hard time paying well over $8,000 for him on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
In his last three games against the Bucks, Otto Porter has played 41, 39, and 39 minutes and has scored 54, 39, and 37 fantasy points. He’s the Wizards best shot of slowing down Giannis Antetokounmpo, so look for Porter to play a few more minutes in this one. He’s one of my favorite contrarian plays of the slate. Markieff Morris is cheap if you need a second power forward to fill out your roster on FanDuel ($4,600).
Marcin Gortat was a man amongst boys on Polish Heritage night. His minutes and fantasy production have both been trending up and the Bucks are ranked dead last in efficiency against centers and 26th in rebounding differential. The price is up, but Gortat is my favorite center target if you can’t find the cap space for Joel Embiid.
Notable Injuries
None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (7 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (7 of 24)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $10,700 | $9,700 | $17,800 | 41.8 | 10.8 | 34.2 | 5.1 | 1.22 | 29.0% | 8 | 11 | 11 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,500 | $8,200 | $14,900 | 37.6 | 4.3 | 35.9 | 3.8 | 1.05 | 26.4% | 17 | 5 | 26 |
| Otto Porter | $6,600 | $6,000 | $13,200 | 29.9 | -7.5 | 31.9 | 3.3 | 0.94 | 16.5% | 11 | 1 | 27 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,600 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 20.1 | 4.1 | 25.2 | 5.3 | 0.80 | 15.9% | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Marcin Gortat | $5,800 | $5,400 | $11,300 | 25.0 | 4.5 | 27.4 | 1.4 | 0.91 | 13.8% | 30 | 23 | 2 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,000 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 22.0 | -3.5 | 27.0 | -1.0 | 0.82 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris (FD)
San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks – 3:00 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.5 | Vegas Spread | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.3 | Implied Team Total | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 25 | 30 | 21 | 28 | DvP | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 19 | 22 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 15 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 4 | |
San Antonio Spurs
When it comes to the Spurs, I always look at their schedule to see if they played the night before or have a game the next day. Luckily, San Antonio hasn’t played since Saturday and they don’t play again until Wednesday. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Spurs have an implied total of 106.3 points, which is five points above their season average.
Tony Parker is only $3,800 on FanDuel if you are starved for value in the five-game early slate. He hasn’t been in great form, but the Hawks have historically been a great matchup for fantasy production. With Danny Green back in the lineup, Bryn Forbes and Kyle Anderson are both overpriced. Kawhi Leonard is one of the best per-minute producers in basketball and has played at least 28 minutes in three straight games. It’s tough to score 45+ fantasy points in 28-30 minutes, but Leonard is one of the few players in the NBA that can accomplish it on a regular basis.
LaMarcus Aldridge averages 34 fantasy points per game with Leonard active and 41 fantasy points per game with Leonard out. He draws a favorable matchup against the Hawks, but is a bit overpriced at the moment. Pau Gasol is an intriguing tournament play against a Hawks’ defense that is ranked 28th in DvP against centers and 27th in rebounding differential.
Notable Injuries
Rudy Gay (Out)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (10 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (3 of 24)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $3,800 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 16.9 | -4.7 | 21.5 | 1.7 | 0.78 | 19.6% | 23 | 20 | 30 |
| Danny Green | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 20.5 | -2.3 | 26.5 | -8.1 | 0.77 | 14.6% | 15 | 25 | 2 |
| Kawhi Leonard | $9,400 | $8,800 | $16,100 | 32.5 | 15.4 | 23.3 | 5.2 | 1.39 | 27.9% | 30 | 30 | 19 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,800 | $8,100 | $14,900 | 38.8 | 0.0 | 33.7 | -0.4 | 1.15 | 25.8% | 8 | 21 | 22 |
| Pau Gasol | $5,900 | $5,700 | $11,300 | 27.6 | -0.6 | 25.0 | 1.8 | 1.11 | 18.5% | 24 | 28 | 9 |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,300 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 23.9 | -0.3 | 27.2 | 1.6 | 0.88 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Pau Gasol (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Tony Parker (FD), Kawhi Leonard, Pau Gasol (Cash)
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have the worst record in the NBA and one of the worst matchups on the schedule, which is not a great combination. The fact that they are playing at home could help keep the game competitive, but targeting players against the Spurs is not a winning proposition in the long run. The Hawks have an implied total of only 98.8 points, which is five points below their season average.
Right off the bat, I am taking all of the Hawks’ players out of cash game consideration. Even in a five-game slate, we should be able to find better plays in cash. For tournaments, there are two intriguing plays. Dennis Schroder has an elite true usage rate (29%) and is averaging 36 fantasy points over his last five games. Tony Parker isn’t exactly a matchup that should scare us off of Schroder. Kent Bazemore is inconsistent, but has shown 40 fantasy point upside and is only $5,200 on FanDuel. If the Hawks are going to keep this game close, they’ll need big outings from Schroder and Bazemore.
Notable Injuries
Marco Belinelli (Probable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.8 (22 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (20 of 24)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,500 | $7,000 | $13,200 | 34.9 | 1.2 | 32.0 | -2.7 | 1.09 | 29.3% | 11 | 2 | 15 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,200 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 28.4 | -4.4 | 28.4 | -0.6 | 1.00 | 19.4% | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,400 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 26.1 | -3.7 | 31.1 | -1.5 | 0.84 | 16.8% | 8 | 7 | 2 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,200 | $5,300 | $11,200 | 23.1 | 2.9 | 25.9 | 2.5 | 0.89 | 16.4% | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 12.1 | -0.1 | 18.5 | 0.4 | 0.66 | 10.0% | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| John Collins | $4,300 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 24.4 | -6.2 | 22.0 | -5.4 | 1.11 | 16.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Kent Bazemore (GPP)
New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets – 3:00 PM ET
| New York Knicks | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.0 |  | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.5 | Vegas Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.3 | Implied Team Total | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.9 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 20 | 16 | 25 | 29 | DvP | 26 | 18 | 14 | 2 | 6 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 16 | 3 | 21 | 14 | DRPM Rat. | 17 | 17 | 18 | 10 | 25 | |
New York Knicks
The Knicks and Nets game my favorite game to stack in the early slate. The game has a low spread and a total of 211 points. The Nets are one of the best possible matchups for fantasy production, as they are ranked fifth in pace of play and and 26th in points allowed per game. New York has an implied total of 104.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
Jarrett Jack is playing some of his best basketball of the season, averaging 34 minutes and 33 fantasy points. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 26th in efficiency and 27th in DvP against point guards this season. Tim Hardaway scored 25 actual points in his second game back from injury, but tweaked his leg late and is being listed as questionable. If he’s unable to suit up, Jack, Michael Beasley, and Courtney Lee would all see a small boost in minutes and/or usage.
Kristaps Porzingis has played at least 35 minutes in seven straight games and has scored at least 40 fantasy points in four straight. He has one of the best matchups on the schedule, as the Nets are ranked 23rd in efficiency against power forwards. The best part is that his salary has yet to catch up with his recent production. Enes Kanter is always a wildcard. While his recent form and matchup are both in his favor, he’s best suited as a tournament play.
Notable Injuries
Tim Hardaway (Questionable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (13 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (16 of 24)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.1 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $5,600 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 21.9 | 11.0 | 27.1 | 6.7 | 0.81 | 18.0% | 26 | 27 | 3 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,400 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 24.9 | -0.9 | 33.0 | 4.5 | 0.75 | 16.6% | 23 | 20 | 16 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 9.3 | -0.2 | 19.3 | 5.0 | 0.48 | 9.8% | 3 | 16 | 3 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $8,900 | $8,300 | $15,500 | 40.4 | 2.5 | 33.4 | 6.4 | 1.21 | 28.0% | 23 | 25 | 21 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,500 | $6,100 | $13,200 | 29.3 | 4.1 | 25.5 | 3.6 | 1.15 | 18.6% | 27 | 29 | 14 |
| Michael Beasley | $5,900 | $5,800 | $12,300 | 20.8 | 6.5 | 18.9 | 3.0 | 1.10 | 24.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis
Secondary Plays – Jarrett Jack, Enes Kanter (GPP)
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have lost six of their last ten games, but are actually small favorites in today’s game against the Knicks. While New York has an above-average defense, this is a good spot for fantasy production. The total is high and the game should be close throughout. The Nets have an implied total of 106.8 points, which is slightly above their season average.
Spencer Dinwiddie put up a dud against the Pistons, but has otherwise been in solid form. He has played at least 35 minutes in four of his last six games, which is gives him a higher floor and a higher ceiling than he had earlier in the season. He also draws the best matchup of the Nets’ starters, as the Knicks are ranked 24th in efficiency against point guards this season. Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll have both seen an uptick in minutes and fantasy production recently and are both nice value plays on FanDuel.
Caris LeVert might not be the most consistent player in DFS, but he arguably has more upside than anyone at his price point. He makes an excellent tournament play today and the simple fact that he comes off the bench tends to keep his ownership down. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is priced at a premium and will have to deal with Kristaps Porzingis, who is a difficult matchup on both ends of the floor.
Notable Injuries
Tyler Zeller (Out)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.2 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (9 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (14 of 24)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,400 | $6,600 | $12,900 | 29.1 | 4.2 | 28.1 | 5.7 | 1.03 | 22.7% | 24 | 26 | 17 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,600 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 21.4 | 2.4 | 28.9 | 2.6 | 0.74 | 16.6% | 4 | 18 | 17 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,200 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 25.6 | 4.1 | 28.9 | 1.5 | 0.89 | 17.9% | 23 | 14 | 18 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,000 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 29.5 | 3.1 | 28.8 | 3.1 | 1.02 | 20.4% | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 16.0 | -0.8 | 17.8 | -4.8 | 0.90 | 15.3% | 9 | 6 | 25 |
| Caris LeVert | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 25.2 | -3.4 | 26.9 | 0.7 | 0.94 | 20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |