NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 23rd - Page Two
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -8.5, 197.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Suns Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Knight-Tucker-Morris-Chandler
- San Antonio Spurs Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-West-Duncan
| Phoenix Suns | San Antonio Spurs | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.5 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 102.80 | Team Pace | 96.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Brandon Knight | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Tyson Chandler | Proj. Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | David West | Tim Duncan | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Opp. Season | 18 | 18 | 26 | 8 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 20 | 27 | 20 | 3 | |
Phoenix Suns (Record: 7-6, Road: 2-3)
The Suns have played well this season with a 7-6 record. However, to avoid dropping back down to .500, they will have to beat the Spurs in San Antonio. That’s a feat that few teams have accomplished over the years.
- San Antonio Spurs Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 91.5 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 94.6 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 5.2 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 180.8 (2 of 30)
The Spurs are my least favorite team to target players against in daily fantasy basketball. They blow a lot of teams out and they have been the best defensive team in the NBA this season. They are currently ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Suns are only projected to score 94.5 points, which is 12 points lower than their average points scored this season. Many will point to the fact that point guards have had a lot of success against the Spurs, but the Suns basically have two point guards. I will be avoiding the Suns altogether tonight in this difficult matchup.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
San Antonio Spurs (Record: 10-3, Home: 6-0)
The Spurs are 10-3 to start the season, with a perfect 6-0 record at home. They will look to increase their home winning streak to seven games tonight, as they host the visiting Suns. LaMarcus Aldridge is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to go, give a small boost to Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, David West, and Boris Diaw.
- Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 4.0 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.7 (12 of 30)
The Suns have been much better defensively this season, but they are still ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Spurs are projected to score 103 points tonight, which is actually 2.5 points higher than their average points scored this season.
Kawhi Leonard has been the only Spurs’ player that I have routinely targeted in daily fantasy this season. He is the one player that sees consistent minutes and that has a consistent role in the offense. He deserves consideration as an elite play tonight against the Suns. Tim Duncan and David West would both see a small boost tonight if LaMarcus Aldridge is ruled out.
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard
FD — $8,500
DK — $8,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 36.1
FP/Game — Season: 37.7 | Last Five Games: 38.2
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan
FD — $6,900
DK — $6,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 15.2
Min/Game — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 27.9
FP/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 30.8
David West
If LaMarcus Aldridge is ruled out.
FD — $3,800
DK — $3,600
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 15.4 | Last Five Games: 15.8
FP/Game — Season: 12.5 | Last Five Games: 14.9
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Utah -3.5, 197 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Roberson-Ibaka-Adams
- Utah Jazz Proj. Starters – Neto-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Utah Jazz | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.0 |  | Vegas Total | 197.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.8 | Team Proj. | 100.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.20 | Team Pace | 94.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Andre Roberson | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj. Starter | Raul Neto | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 4 | Opp. Season | 13 | 27 | 15 | 15 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 17 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder (Record: 8-6, Road: 2-3)
The Thunder have been able to keep the ship afloat with Kevin Durant out, thanks to some stellar play by Russell Westbrook. Durant is making progress, but after sitting out last night’s game against the Mavericks, little has likely changed in the last 24 hours. That said, he is still considered questionable for tonight’s game against the Jazz.
- Utah Jazz Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 92.4 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.7 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.8 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 176.5 (1 of 30)
This is going to be a pace-down game for the Thunder. The Jazz average seven fewer possessions per game than the Thunder do, which should result in a much slower-paced game than we are used to seeing from Oklahoma City. In addition to a slow pace, the Jazz boast a stifling defense. They are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. If you have read the Grind Down before, then you know how much I love Russell Westbrook when Kevin Durant is out. While he is still an elite play, he is no longer in that “must play” territory.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook
FD — $11,900
DK — $12,300
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 34.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 53.9 | Last Five Games: 58.7
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka
FD — $6,600
DK — $6,700
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.3 | Last Five Games: 17.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Utah Jazz (Record: 6-6, Home: 2-1)
The Jazz have had a tough opening schedule, but they are still 6-6 despite only playing three games at home. A win over the Thunder tonight could really be big for this young team, as they are looking to make a playoff push in the tough Western Conference.
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 8.5 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.5 (17 of 30)
The Thunder own the best rebounding differential in the NBA, but they are ranked 17th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. This will be a pace-up game for the Jazz, who are projected to score 100.3 points tonight. That implied team total may not stand out, but it’s actually five points higher than their average points scored on the season.
There are quite a few Jazz players on my radar tonight, but they all come with at least one question mark. Rodney Hood is probably my favorite play in the fantasy points per dollar sense, although he has not been able to stay away from foul trouble. Gordon Hayward has struggled with consistency this season. Alec Burks has played well off the bench, but his minutes range from 25-35 per night. Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert are both in tough matchups, as Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams are both very good defenders.
Elite Plays
Rodney Hood
FD — $4,700
DK — $5,000
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Secondary Plays
Derrick Favors
FD — $8,100
DK — $7,600
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 19.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 36.3
Rudy Gobert
FD — $7,300
DK — $6,500
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.1 | Last Five Games: 7.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 37.5
FP/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 26.3
Gordon Hayward
FD — $6,600
DK — $6,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 35.9
FP/Game — Season: 26.2 | Last Five Games: 28.9
Alec Burks
FD — $5,400
DK — $5,200
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 23.8