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NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 30th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-30 23:21:45

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Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM

Golden State Warriors Utah Jazz
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 201.5 utahnba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd -8.0 Vegas Sprd 8.0
Team Proj. 104.8 Team Proj. 96.8
Team Pace 102.10 Team Pace 94.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Andre Iguodala Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 7 2 10 8 2 Opp. Season 23 8 5 14 9
Opp. Last 7 23 1 4 26 4 Opp. Last 7 11 10 22 23 10

Golden State Warriors (Record: 18-0, Road: 8-0)

The Warriors continued their winning ways with an easy win over the Kings on Saturday night. They will look to keep their perfect record intact tonight against the Jazz. Vegas is expecting Utah to put up a fight in this one, as the Warriors are only listed as 8-point favorites on the road.

We have a dilemma tonight. Do we side with the team with the best offense in the NBA or do we side with the team that has one of the best defenses in the NBA? The Warriors may see a slight decrease in pace tonight, but the real question will be how efficient they are going to be from the floor against the Jazz. The Warriors have an implied team total of 104.8 points. While that’s certainly one of the highest on the board, it is 11 points lower than their average on the season.

Harrison Barnes has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which should result in another start for Brandon Rush. He made the most of his opportunity on Saturday night, scoring 19 fantasy points. However, he only played 19 minutes. I prefer Gerald Green over Rush at a similar price point. Andre Iguodala and Leandro Barbosa still stand to gain the most in Barnes’ absence. Stephen Curry is about as matchup-proof as they come, but I’m not sure that I will be paying a premium for him in a pace-down game for the Warriors. He and Draymond Green are secondary options in my eyes.

Elite Plays

Andre Iguodala

FD — $4,700 — SF
DK — $5,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.6 | Last Five Games: 10.7
Min/Game — Season: 27.9 | Last Five Games: 24.5
FP/Game — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 21.0

Secondary Plays

Stephen Curry

FD — $10,900 — PG
DK — $10,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 26.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 48.9 | Last Five Games: 43.9

Draymond Green

FD — $8,200 — PF
DK — $7,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.9 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 36.4

Leandro Barbosa

FD — $3,800 — SG
DK — $3,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.7 | Last Five Games: 17.8
Min/Game — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 17.6
FP/Game — Season: 13.3 | Last Five Games: 16.1

Utah Jazz (Record: 8-7, Home: 3-2)

The Jazz are only playing their sixth home game of the season. With the exception of the game against the Thunder, the Jazz have played well in front of their home crowd. They are going to need all the help that they can get tonight if they are going to take down the undefeated Warriors.

The Warriors have been dominant defensively, but their fast pace of play has allowed us to target players against them this season. It’s not a favorable matchup by any means, but they are ranked 14th in points allowed per game and ninth in fantasy points allowed per game. The Jazz have an implied team total of 96.8 points tonight, which is a point and a half higher than their average on the season.

Rodney Hood and Trey Burke are both questionable for tonight’s game against the Warriors. Alec Burks stands to benefit the most if one or both of them are unable to suit up. The injuries would also solidify the minutes for Gordon Hayward. The biggest issue with the Jazz tonight is that Raul Neto plays the one position that the Warriors have struggled to defend. I want no part of any lineup featuring Neto as my point guard. Rudy Gobert is my favorite play here. He will be right around the basket all night, as Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli rarely stray far from the paint.

Elite Plays

Rudy Gobert

FD — $7,100 — C
DK — $6,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.8 | Last Five Games: 7.9
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 24.2

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

FD — $6,500 — SF
DK — $6,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 35.9
FP/Game — Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 32.5

Alec Burks

FD — $5,400 — SG
DK — $5,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 21.5
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.0 | Last Five Games: 20.4

Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Dallas Mavericks Sacramento Kings
dallasnba Vegas Total 214.0 sacramentonba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 107.8 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 99.30 Team Pace 102.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos
Opp. Season 20 29 20 28 25 Opp. Season 18 5 7 26 6
Opp. Last 7 27 20 19 30 19 Opp. Last 7 20 4 20 18 9

Dallas Mavericks (Record: 10-7, Road: 5-5)

The Mavericks have won seven of their last ten games, after starting out 3-4 on the season. They are looking for their sixth road win of the season tonight, as they head to Sacramento to take on the Kings. The Mavericks are 1.5-point favorites in this matchup, with the total for the game set at 214 points.

The Kings have one of the worst defenses in the NBA this season. They are ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Mavericks have an implied team total of 107.8 points. Not only is that the highest team total on the board, but it is 7.5 points higher than their average on the season.

If there was ever a night to load up on the Mavericks, this would be it. It’s kind of perfect timing too, as Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews are off of their minutes restrictions. Williams’ price is climbing, but he is still worth a look as an elite play tonight. Over his last five games, he is averaging 32.1 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. He should be in for a big night against Rajon Rondo and the Kings. Dirk Nowitzki and Zaza Pachulia are both borderline elite plays down low. I’d give Pachulia a nice boost if DeMarcus Cousins is ruled out. Wesley Matthews remains one of the better values on DraftKings. His minutes continue to trend in the right direction and the Kings have been the worst team against shooting guards over the last three seasons (thank you, Ben McLemore).

Elite Plays

Deron Williams

FD — $6,500 — PG
DK — $6,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 19.5
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 32.1

Dirk Nowitzki

FD — $6,500 — PF
DK — $6,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 14.5
Min/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 32.3
FP/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 29.0

Secondary Plays

Zaza Pachulia

FD — $6,400 — C
DK — $5,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 14.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 26.5 | Last Five Games: 28.5

Wesley Matthews

FD — $4,700 — SG
DK — $4,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 16.6
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 32.1
FP/Game — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 18.8

Sacramento Kings (Record: 6-12, Home: 4-6)

The Kings are hoping to have DeMarcus Cousins back in the lineup tonight. He is listed as questionable, but judging by the Vegas line, it seems as if the oddsmakers are expecting him to play. The Kings are only 2.5-point underdogs tonight against the Mavericks at home.

The Mavericks have been mediocre defensively this season. They are ranked between tenth and 12th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Even though it’s an average matchup at best, the Kings are still projected to score 106.3 points tonight, which is the third highest team total on the board.

I wish we had an update on DeMarcus Cousins other than that he is just questionable. He is responsible for such a large portion of production that when he is out, the whole team sees a fantasy boost. If Cousins is unable to play tonight, it will be the Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay show once again. Both players would be elite plays at their respective positions. Kosta Koufos and Omri Casspi would also see a nice boost in his absence. If Cousins is able to play and is not on minute restriction, he himself would be worth a look in tournaments, while Rajon Rondo would be the only other fantasy option of note.

Elite Plays

Rajon Rondo

FD — $8,300 — PG
DK — $9,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.0 | Last Five Games: 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 37.7 | Last Five Games: 40.0

Rudy Gay

Only an elite play if DeMarcus Cousins is out.
FD — $7,100 — SF
DK — $7,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.9 | Last Five Games: 24.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 30.7

Secondary Plays

If DeMarcus Cousins is out.

Kosta Koufos

FD — $4,500 — C
DK — $5,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.2 | Last Five Games: 16.2
Min/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 26.4
FP/Game — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 27.7

Omri Casspi

FD — $4,200 — SF
DK — $4,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 14.6
Min/Game — Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 29.1
FP/Game — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 23.9

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Los Angeles Clippers
portlandnba Vegas Total 205.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 99.3 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Meyers Leonard Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Wesley Johnson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 13 11 17 10 19 Opp. Season 16 23 1 16 24
Opp. Last 7 5 7 17 3 23 Opp. Last 7 16 13 2 28 3

Portland Trail Blazers (Record: 7-10, Road: 3-6)

The Blazers have stumbled a bit after a decent star to their season. They are only 3-6 on the road and they have lost seven of their last ten games. Even though the Clippers have also faltered in recent weeks, the Blazers enter tonight’s game as 7-point underdogs on the road.

The Clippers are a team that we like to target players against in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Blazers have an implied team total of 99.3 points tonight, which likely says more about their play on the road than it does about their matchup.

Chris Paul has long been known as an elite defender in the NBA. The Clippers continue to improve their DvP against point guards and even though Damian Lillard is a dynamic scorer, there are better plays dollar for dollar at the position. C.J. McCollum has cooled off in recent weeks and Mason Plumlee minutes are a bit more questionable now that Meyers Leonard has returned from his injury. While I like the matchup as a whole, the Blazers are secondary options individually.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard

FD — $9,400 — PG
DK — $9,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 29.2
Min/Game — Season: 37.5 | Last Five Games: 38.2
FP/Game — Season: 40.8 | Last Five Games: 42.6

C.J. McCollum

FD — $6,700 — SG
DK — $6,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 21.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 31.6

Los Angeles Clippers (Record: 9-8, Home: 7-4)

I’m not sure I’ve ever heard this much criticism about a team that is 9-8 to start the season. Well, I suppose that is an exaggeration, because there is always one team that the media loves to jump on as being a disappointment. The Clippers certainly haven’t played up to their standard, but it’s not like they are out of the mix in the Western Conference. They are looking for their third win in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Blazers.

The Blazers have been mediocre defensively this season. They are ranked between tenth and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. However, as I mentioned above, they have been a much different team on the road. The Clippers have an implied team total of 106.3 points tonight, which is tied for the third highest on the board.

When it comes to the Clippers, there are basically three fantasy options – Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. Of the three, Paul has the most exploitable matchup. This season has been a little different, but point guards have racked up fantasy points against Damian Lillard over the last few years. The only reason to avoid playing Paul tonight is the wealth of options at point guard. If you decide to take the value route at point guard and want some exposure to the Clippers, this is where Griffin or Jordan comes into play. Both are in decent spots against the Blazers and both have more than reasonable price points.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD — $9,100 — PF
DK — $9,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 24.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 33.3
FP/Game — Season: 42.7 | Last Five Games: 40.8

Chris Paul

FD — $8,900 — PG
DK — $8,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 22.0
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 31.3
FP/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 38.4

Secondary Plays

DeAndre Jordan

FD — $7,600 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.1 | Last Five Games: 12.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 34.3

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious