NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 30th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Boston Celtics Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Sullinger
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Green-Bosh-Whiteside
| Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 193.5 | | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.60 | Team Pace | 96.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Jared Sullinger | Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Gerald Green | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 3 | 21 | 9 | 16 | Opp. Season | 2 | 21 | 24 | 17 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 17 | 7 | |
Boston Celtics (Record: 9-8, Road: 3-4)
The Celtics have won six of their last ten games. They are an interesting case this season, as they have one of the highest margins of victory, yet they only have a positive point differential of 4.2. Boston draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Heat, who play at a slow pace and have a stifling defense. The Celtics are 5-point underdogs tonight in Miami.
- Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 91.7 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 94.5 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.1 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 183.6 (3 of 30)
The Heat have been one of the worst teams to target players against this season. They average 96 possessions per game and they are ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Celtics have an implied team total of only 94.3 points, which is 7.5 points lower than their average on the season.
- Injury Watch
Marcus Smart (O)
As if the matchup wasn’t bad enough, the Celtics are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Magic last night in Orlando. With Marcus Smart out, Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley will continue to see starter’s minutes. Both players are decent secondary options, but they are both too pricey to use as elite plays. Jared Sullinger is also a secondary play tonight. His matchup against Hassan Whiteside is what is holding him back from being an elite option.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Isaiah Thomas
FD — $7,300 — PG
DK — $7,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 26.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 31.9
FP/Game — Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 32.6
Avery Bradley
FD — $6,200 — SG
DK — $6,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 19.5
Min/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 26.5
Jared Sullinger
FD — $6,100 — PF
DK — $6,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.8 | Last Five Games: 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 26.9
FP/Game — Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 28.7
Miami Heat (Record: 10-5, Home: 8-2)
The Heat are playing their 11th game at home already. So far, they have played well in Miami, posting a record of 8-2. Tonight they host the Celtics, who have had a case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this season. This should be a pace-up game for the Heat, as Boston averages 101.6 possessions per game.
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.4 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.9 (11 of 30)
Even though the Celtics have been one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA this season, their numbers on the defensive end of the floor are still superb. They are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. With two above-average defenses squaring off tonight, it comes as no surprise that the total is set at only 193.5 points.
- Injury Watch
Luol Deng (O)
Amar’e Stoudemire (O)
Chris Bosh (GTD)
Chris Andersen (GTD)
Luol Deng has already been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Celtics, which means Gerald Green will draw another start at small forward. Green has played very well in his two starts this season, averaging 25 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. Chris Bosh is an injury that we need to keep our eye on. If he is unable to suit up, Dwyane Wade would see a nice boost in usage, while Josh McRoberts could see a start at power forward. Hassan Whiteside is worth a look in tournaments. He leads the NBA in blocks per game (4.8) and he has scored at least 34 fantasy points in each of his last four games.
Elite Plays
Gerald Green
FD — $3,700 — SG
DK — $4,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 23.7
FP/Game — Season: 14.1 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside
FD — $8,400 — C
DK — $8,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 14.6
Min/Game — Season: 29.4 | Last Five Games: 28.5
FP/Game — Season: 36.9 | Last Five Games: 34.6
Dwyane Wade
FD — $7,100 — SG
DK — $6,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 27.7
Min/Game — Season: 29.4 | Last Five Games: 29.9
FP/Game — Season: 28.9 | Last Five Games: 30.7
Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Detroit -4, 198 Over/Under
- Houston Rockets Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Capela-Howard
- Detroit Pistons Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Morris-Ilyasova-Drummond
| Houston Rockets | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 198.0 | | Vegas Total | 198.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 101.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.70 | Team Pace | 97.20 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Clint Capela | Dwight Howard | Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Ersan Ilyasova | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 10 | Opp. Season | 21 | 24 | 28 | 30 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 11 | 23 | 8 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 2 | |
Houston Rockets (Record: 7-10, Road: 3-3)
The Rockets have won two games in a row, but they almost lost to the Sixers and they needed a big comeback win over the Knicks for those two victories. They clearly aren’t playing up to their level of talent, but the light at the end of the tunnel seems far away. The Rockets are listed as 4-point underdogs tonight against the Pistons in Detroit.
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.1 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.8 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.1 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.0 (6 of 30)
The Pistons are another team that plays at a slow pace (97.2 possessions per game) and has an elite defense. On the season, they are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Rockets have an implied team total of 97 points, which is 4.5 points lower than their average on the season.
If you look at the Defense vs. Position table above, the only position that Detroit has not defended well is power forward. That makes a lot of sense, as Ersan Ilyasova is by far the worst defender in their starting five. Clint Capela deserves strong consideration tonight. In seven starts this season, he is averaging 12 points, ten rebounds, and two blocks per game. Despite the tough matchup against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, James Harden is also in play tonight. The Rockets basically need 30+ points from him to have a chance to win. Dwight Howard can be avoided for now. He is playing some uninspiring basketball and he will be matched up against Andre Drummond.
- Injury Watch:
Donatas Motiejunas (O)
Sam Dekker (O)
Elite Plays
James Harden
FD — $10,700 — SG
DK — $10,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 28.9
Min/Game — Season: 39.5 | Last Five Games: 40.0
FP/Game — Season: 48.0 | Last Five Games: 52.9
Secondary Plays
Clint Capela
Borderline elite play on FanDuel.
FD — $4,600 — C
DK — $5,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.7 | Last Five Games: 16.0
Min/Game — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 22.4
FP/Game — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 26.2
Detroit Pistons (Record: 8-9, Home: 4-2)
The Pistons have lost seven of their last ten games, but they have a good chance to get back to their winning ways tonight. They host the visiting Rockets, who have had a tough time beating subpar teams this season. This should be a pace-up game for Detroit, as Houston averages 99.7 possessions per game this season.
- Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 215.2 (30 of 30)
The Rockets have been far from a defensive juggernaut this season. Even though they have slowed their pace down, they are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pistons have an implied team total of 101 points, which is markedly higher than their season average of 95.5.
- Injury Watch:
Jodie Meeks (O)
The Rockets have been decent against centers this season, but that is no reason to fade Andre Drummond tonight. He is coming off of a 20-point, 18-rebound effort against the Nets and the Rockets are in the bottom half of the league in rebounding differential. Drummond has 20/20 upside tonight against Dwight Howard. Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope continue to play elite minutes; both are decent cash game options tonight against a Rockets’ team that is ranked 24th and 28th against shooting guards and small forwards, respectively. Reggie Jackson is a nice tournament play at home, however, his minutes are not high enough for me to trust him in cash games.
Elite Plays
Andre Drummond
FD — $9,300 — C
DK — $8,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 43.8 | Last Five Games: 38.8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
FD — $4,800 — SG
DK — $4,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.8 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 36.6 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 22.4
Secondary Plays
Reggie Jackson
FD — $7,500 — PG
DK — $7,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 27.4
Min/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 27.7
FP/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 28.4
Marcus Morris
FD — $5,900 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 14.9
Min/Game — Season: 36.7 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 21.4
San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -3.5, 190.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Spurs Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Aldridge-Duncan
- Chicago Bulls Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Snell-Mirotic-Gasol
| San Antonio Spurs | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 190.5 | | Vegas Total | 190.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 93.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.40 | Team Pace | 100.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Tim Duncan | Proj. Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Tony Snell | Nikola Mirotic | Pau Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 13 | 23 | 1 | 27 | Opp. Season | 22 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 15 | 8 | 29 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 1 | |
San Antonio Spurs (Record: 14-3, Road: 5-3)
The Spurs have won five games in a row and nine of their last ten. With a 14-3 record, you wouldn’t think that they would be 3.5 games behind the one seed, but that’s what happens when you play in the same conference as the Warriors. The Spurs are 3.5-point favorites tonight against the Bulls in what is expected to be a low-scoring game – 190.5 point total.
- Chicago Bulls Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.2 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.7 (22 of 30)
The Bulls have been efficient (ranked 6th) on defense this season, but their fast pace of play allows us to target players against them. Chicago is ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed per game and they are a below-average rebounding team. The Spurs have an implied team total of 97 points, which is 2.5 points lower than their average on the season.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker have had good games this season, but the story for San Antonio has been Kawhi Leonard. He is averaging over 40 fantasy points per game this season and he has the unique combination of being a multi-dimensional player with a high usage rate. Leonard also has an un-matched level of consistency to his game, as he has scored at least 34 fantasy points in each of his last nine games. He remains an elite play at small forward tonight. Tony Parker is also a borderline elite play tonight. He is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 29 fantasy points per game in his last five.
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard
FD — $9,100 — SF
DK — $8,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 21.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 40.2 | Last Five Games: 45.1
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan
Better play on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel.
FD — $7,000 — C
DK — $6,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 10.9
Min/Game — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 31.1
Tony Parker
FD — $5,500 — PG
DK — $5,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.2 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 29.0
Chicago Bulls (Record: 9-5, Home: 5-1)
The Bulls are 9-5 on the season with a 5-1 record at home. They have quietly gone about their business in the Eastern Conference and currently find themselves in fourth place. They draw one of the toughest tests of basketball tonight, as they host the visiting Spurs.
- San Antonio Spurs Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 89.7 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.1 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 5.1 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 178.4 (1 of 30)
Whenever we have a decent sized slate of games, I will avoid taking players against the Spurs. They are ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bulls have an implied team total of 93.5 points, which is the lowest on the board tonight. Since there aren’t any injuries that open the door for obvious value plays, I will be fading the Bulls tonight at home.
- Injury Watch:
Mike Dunleavy (O)
Aaron Brooks (O)
Kirk Hinrich (O)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -2, 211.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Atlanta Hawks Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Sefolosha-Millsap-Horford
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 211.5 | | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.8 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.80 | Team Pace | 98.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Thabo Sefolosha | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 26 | 13 | 19 | 26 | Opp. Season | 14 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 14 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder (Record: 11-6, Road: 3-3)
The Thunder have won four games in a row and are really starting to fire on all cylinders. They have won each of their last three games by at least 11 points. There aren’t many teams that are favored when they play in Atlanta, but the Thunder are 2-point favorites tonight. This should be one of the top games to target for fantasy production.
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.5 (19 of 30)
The Hawks have not been the dominant force on defense that we are used to seeing. They are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Thunder have an implied team total of 106.8 points, which is the second highest on the board tonight.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
It’s always hard to expect both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant to reach value, but they are two of the top plays at their respective positions. With tonight’s game expected to stay close throughout, both players should see 35+ minutes of playing time. Westbrook’s numbers have gone down with Durant back in the lineup, but he has still averaged 1.42 fantasy points per minute in his last five games. If he sees say 38 minutes tonight, he should be able to crack the 50 fantasy point mark. Kevin Durant is an elite play on DraftKings, as he is still priced under $10,000. He has averaged 49.7 fantasy points per game in his last five outings.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook
FD — $11,000 — PG
DK — $10,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 29.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 51.2 | Last Five Games: 47.0
Kevin Durant
FD — $10,500 — SF
DK — $9,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 35.1
FP/Game — Season: 44.9 | Last Five Games: 49.7
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka
FD — $6,400 — PF
DK — $6,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 14.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Atlanta Hawks (Record: 11-8, Home: 6-3)
The Hawks have lost six of their last ten games and have fallen all the way down to seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Thunder. This should be one of the highest-scoring games of the night, as the total is set at 211.5 points.
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 7.7 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.2 (14 of 30)
The Thunder lead the NBA in rebounding differential, but are a below-average team defensively. On the season, they are ranked 21st in points allowed per game, 14th in defensive efficiency, and 14th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks are projected to score 104.8 points tonight, which is the fifth highest team total on the board.
- Injury Watch:
Tiago Splitter (O)
Tiago Splitter will be out again for the Hawks tonight, but his absence doesn’t make a big fantasy impact. In a game that has such a high total, all five Hawks’ starters are in play here. Paul Millsap is my favorite play of the bunch. He has averaged just under 40 fantasy points per game this season and he has a high usage rate. And come on DraftKings, how is he only $7,700? Al Horford and Jeff Teague are borderline elite plays at their respective positions. However, Horford has a difficult matchup against Steven Adams and Teague could get into foul trouble against Westbrook. Thabo Sefolosha and Kyle Korver are both viable punt options.
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap
FD — $8,600 — PF
DK — $7,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 38.4 | Last Five Games: 39.3
Secondary Plays
Al Horford
FD — $6,900 — C
DK — $6,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 18.7
Min/Game — Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 29.1
FP/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 24.8
Jeff Teague
FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 27.4
FP/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 27.3
Kyle Korver
FD — $4,500 — SG
DK — $4,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.1 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Thabo Sefolosha
FD — $4,200 — SF
DK — $4,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.2 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 28.0
FP/Game — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 23.2
Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -3.5, 200.5 Over/Under
- Denver Nuggets Proj. Starters – Mudiay-Foye-Gallinari-Arthur-Jokic
- Milwaukee Bucks Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Monroe
| Denver Nuggets | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 200.5 | | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.80 | Team Pace | 94.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Emmanuel Mudiay | Randy Foye | Danilo Gallinari | Darrell Arthur | Nikola Jokic | Proj. Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Greg Monroe | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 15 | 26 | 21 | 13 | Opp. Season | 28 | 30 | 12 | 20 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 28 | 24 | 1 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 21 | 30 | |
Denver Nuggets (Record: 6-11, Road: 3-5)
The Nuggets have lost six games in a row, yet they are only 3.5-point underdogs on the road tonight in Milwaukee. That says a lot about how bad the Bucks have been this season. While this may not be the most efficient basketball game on the schedule, it should be a good one for fantasy production. Both of these teams own a bottom-five defense.
- Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.5 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.7 (22 of 30)
It’s actually pretty amazing how bad the Bucks have been defensively this season. Many will point to the addition of Greg Monroe, but it’s impossible for one player to be the sole cause of what has taken place. Despite playing at one of the slowest paces of any team in the NBA, Milwaukee is ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game.
- Injury Watch:
Wilson Chandler (O)
Jusuf Nurkic (O)
Gary Harris (O)
There haven’t been many times where I have targeted the Nuggets on the road this season, but that will change tonight. They have an implied team total of 98.5 points, which is higher than their average on the season. Gary Harris has been ruled out of tonight’s game, as he is in the league’s concussion protocol. Randy Foye should draw another start, while Will Barton should see a nice boost off the bench. Danilo Gallinari is an elite play in all league formats tonight. Even though Giannis Antetokounmpo has one of the longest wingspans in the NBA, the Bucks have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to small forwards this season. Emmanuel Mudiay and Nikola Jokic round out the fantasy options from Denver.
Elite Plays
Danilo Gallinari
FD — $7,100 — SF
DK — $6,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 20.0
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 35.7
FP/Game — Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 32.4
Will Barton
FD — $5,300 — SG
DK — $5,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 17.8
Min/Game — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 26.5
FP/Game — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 23.1
Secondary Plays
Emmanuel Mudiay
FD — $5,800 — PG
DK — $5,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.0 | Last Five Games: 24.2
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 25.2
Nikola Jokic
FD — $4,000 — C
DK — $4,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 16.6
Min/Game — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 20.1
FP/Game — Season: 16.3 | Last Five Games: 18.3
Randy Foye
FD — $3,500 — SG
DK — $3,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.1 | Last Five Games: 10.2
Min/Game — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 19.6
FP/Game — Season: 8.9 | Last Five Games: 7.7
Milwaukee Bucks (Record: 6-11, Home: 4-4)
Even though the Bucks are only 6-11 on the season, they at least have a .500 record at home. They will look to get back on track tonight, as they have lost eight of their last ten games. They certainly have one of the easier matchups on the board, as the Nuggets have lost six games in a row themselves.
- Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.0 (25 of 30)
The Nuggets have not played well defensively this season. They are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bucks implied team total of 102 points may not seem like anything special, but it is actually five points higher than their average on the season. We should give the Bucks a nice boost as a whole tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Greivis Vasquez (GTD)
It’s always hard to trust Jason Kidd and his wacky rotations, but it’s a risk that I am willing to take tonight, given their favorable matchup against the Nuggets. Giannis Antetokounmpo should have his fingerprints all over this game. He is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. Greg Monroe is a borderline elite play as well. The Nuggets have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Khris Middleton and Jerryd Bayless (especially if Greivis Vasquez is out) are both nice secondary plays.
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe
FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $6,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 24.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 26.7
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 31.7
Giannis Antetokounmpo
FD — $7,000 — SG
DK — $7,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.1 | Last Five Games: 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 29.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 27.7
Secondary Plays
Khris Middleton
FD — $5,600 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.7 | Last Five Games: 20.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.9 | Last Five Games: 29.1
FP/Game — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 28.7
Jerryd Bayless
Bump him up to an elite play if he draws another start over Michael Carter-Williams.
FD — $4,500 — PG
DK — $4,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 15.0
Min/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 25.2
O.J. Mayo
If he draws another start over Jabari Parker.
FD — $3,600 — SG
DK — $4,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 28.1
FP/Game — Season: 14.1 | Last Five Games: 17.6
