NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 21st

by Travis Mangone (Mangone) Last Updated 2018-04-22 00:39:50

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat – 2:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Miami Heat
			Vegas Total		215.0					Vegas Total		215.0
			Vegas Spread		-3.0					Vegas Spread		3.0
			Implied Team Total		109.0					Implied Team Total		106.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.8					Pace Projection +/-		2.6
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	4	14	1	6	7		DvP	13	15	20	9	12
DRPM Rat.	21	14	7	8	2		DRPM Rat.	1	25	1	19	2

Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid is back, and you better believe they are trusting the process in Philadelphia! It was exciting seeing the Sixers back to full strength to take on the Heat last game. The Sixers are up 2-1 and have put the pressure on Miami to tie the series up before it heads back to Philadelphia. The Sixers are three-point road favorites and this game surprisingly has a 214.5 total. The return of Embiid has helped boosted the tempo of the Sixers and I think the Sixers are just too talented for the Heat and win this game.

Ben Simmons is going to be fun to watch this postseason. In his first three games he has all fifty-point games and he is only $9600 on DraftKings and $10200 on FanDuel. I also think the return of Embiid should help him and it feels like we haven’t even seen his ceiling game yet. I also love that he is PG and SF eligible on DraftKings because it gives me a lot of flexibility with roster construction. I love Simmons in this spot and I think this could be the game where we see Simmons show his best game of the postseason so far. I also like him on FanDuel and think he is an elite play on both sites. Joel Embiid is a good play simply because his price is just too cheap. $9100 on DraftKings and $9600 on FanDuel are prices we have not seen in a while. I prefer Simmons over Embiid and understand the Sixers are still going to probably monitor him until that mask is off. I think Embiid is a nice secondary option but for almost the same price I would rather go Simmons over Embiid. If I rostered Embiid I would prefer to do it on FanDuel where you need a Center and have less roster flexibility.

Now that we talked about the Sixers studs we can discuss the role players in this offense. Ersan Ilyasova took the biggest hit with Embiid’s return and he is unplayable right now. Dario Saric matches up well against the Heat and should see a safe number of minutes but at that price, I just think there are better plays on the board. He is certainly playable, but I just prefer other options. The curious case of Marco Belinelli is one that I don’t understand. Belinelli had a great shooting performance last game and even somehow filled up the stat sheet. If you have played him and you want to keep riding the gravy train I won’t talk you out of it, but I feel like his numbers should regress and I won’t jump on the train now. I think he could be fine, but I expect his ownership to be too high in tournaments and I would prefer to play JJ Redick, who should perform better than Belinelli at a similar price. I like Redick as a secondary play on the Sixers and think I will get exposure to him. Robert Covington is the last guy to really discuss and I know he has a ceiling his price but, in this matchup, I just don’t see it.

Notable Injuries None

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (4 of 8)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid and JJ Redick

Miami Heat

I think it is important when picking your teams to correlate them the way you think the game will go. Andy asked me on a premium show yesterday can you play John Wall and Bradley Beal together and I said yes absolutely. They ended up being the winning lineup and that’s because I thought the Wizards would beat down the Raptors where you didn’t need to play anyone in that backcourt. My point in saying this is that I think it is important to determine how you think the games will turn out to help you make strong stances on these small playoff slates. I really think the Heat lose this game and I don’t love a ton of their prices. So, on a four-game slate I think this team will be one that I am very underweight on. This is a major pace up game for the Heat and with Whiteside basically useless I can’t overlook this entire game.

I won’t be playing Dragic unless he fits my last spot in my cash games. I hate his upside at his price and honestly, I hope when I build my rosters on FanDuel he isn’t a last guy in for me. The only guard in the backcourt that I really like is Dwyane Wade on Fanduel where you must play two shooting guards. I think he is a secondary play over there but no more than that. The best spot to target Heat players is in the frontcourt. Now I am the first to admit that I didn’t see only 8 minutes for Whiteside against the Sixers with Embiid returning. It is clear they just won’t use him, so this makes James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk the best plays to target on Miami. If I was building 10 teams I would probably Olynyk on five teams and Johnson on five, that way I have exposure to both. I also don’t hate the idea of playing both together because they are simply too cheap right now for their current situation. Olynyk and Johnson are both elite plays and my favorite plays to target on Miami. I should of mentioned I don’t hate Winslow as a secondary value play. I like his price and they should need him to defend a lot of the Sixers wing player and I think he is more viable than I was considering at the start of the analysis.

Notable Injuries None

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6 (1 of 8)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.2 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk

Secondary Plays – Justise Winslow and Dwyane Wade (FanDuel only)

Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans – 5:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers							New Orleans Pelicans
			Vegas Total		216.0					Vegas Total		216.0
			Vegas Spread		7.0					Vegas Spread		-7.0
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		111.5
			Pace Projection +/-		3.1					Pace Projection +/-		-0.8
Projected Starters	Damian Lillard	C.J. McCollum	Evan Turner	Al-Farouq Aminu	Jusuf Nurkic		Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Nikola Mirotic	Anthony Davis
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	27	25	18	17		DvP	1	7	13	12	5
DRPM Rat.	16	1	28	11	1		DRPM Rat.	10	24	20	2	1

Portland Trail Blazers

Bring out the broomsticks! Sorry Jack Hendrixson but there is a new sheriff in town and it’s not Dolla Dame, it’s playoff Rondooooooo! The Blazers are drawing dead and come into this game as seven-point road underdogs in a 216 total. They are also playing with a banged up Nurkic, a questionable Maurice Harkless and a questionable Evan Turner. On top of that Rondo and Jrue have been suffocating the Blazers backcourt and this thing just looks about over.

The only bright spot on the Blazers in this series has been the way Al-Farouq Aminu has played. Part of the reason is that he has stepped up due to Nurkic having to play banged up but either way he is still too cheap. Aminu is going to have to play a lot of minutes and should be a safe play with upside at his price. I love Aminu in this spot and I think he is an elite play around the industry. I don’t hate “(player-popup #c-j-mccollum)CJ McCollum”:/players/c-j-mccollum-17121’s price on DraftKings at $6600 there is a lot of upside for him. I don’t hate him on FanDuel but I think he is way more viable on DraftKings and a good play to target. I won’t list him as an elite play, but I do think he is a good one and will be a secondary option for me. I think the Blazers kind of give up in this game and bow out in the fourth quarter, so I am going to likely be underweight on the Blazers. The only other player to discuss is Damian Lillard and at his price in this matchup, he is an easy fade for me. The only argument to be made for Dame is if you think the Blazers win and that everyone has counted them out, then maybe you get him low owned in tournaments.

The more I have thought about it I like Ed Davis and Zach Collins as tournament plays that you might want to consider. There is not a ton of value on his slate and with Nurkic banged up, Harkless and Turner questionable, they are much more viable. Especially since I don’t think there is a ton of cheap value on this slate and more of the value is in the $5000-$8000 range.

Notable Injuries Maurice Harkless (questionable) and Evan Turner (questionable)

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (5 of 8)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Al-Farouq Aminu

Secondary Plays – Cj McCollum (draftkings)

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have honestly been my favorite story line this postseason. Everyone thought that they would fold over once they lost Boogie Cousins but that was not the case. They have played well and look like they will give the Warriors more trouble then we were thinking in the second round. I think it is clear who we want to target on the Pelicans and since I think they will win you better believe I want to be overweight on these guys.

Rondo’s price on FanDuel is just stupid especially because I don’t love the position over there. Playoff Rondo is a thing and it’s not going away. I know I’m a Rondo homer, but he has 40 or more fantasy points in his last three games and knows this Blazers team so well he has been calling out their offensive plays as they get set. It’s been fun to watch and no chance I miss out on another x5 or more game from Rondo. I also love Jrue Holiday and think his price is too cheap around the industry. On DraftKings at $7800 it’s tough for me to get away from him. In his last ten game his lowest performance is 36.25 and he just won’t burn you at that price and has a ton of upside. I love Holiday and think he is an elite play. I even like him over on FanDuel at $8200 and will get exposure to him there as well. It feels weird, but I still have not played Anthony Davis this postseason and I think I’m okay with that. Every slate I have played I think he’s been a fine play, but I just like other spend up options. If you want to play Davis I think he is a better play on DraftKings and wouldn’t talk you out of it. On Fanduel $12700 is a tough price to swallow and I think there are just better plays in the $5000-6500 range. I will list Davis as a secondary DraftKings play only but I prefer using Pelicans guards over Davis. I also think that Nikola Mirotic is a better forward play on the Pelicans than Davis as well. I love his floor and ceiling at this price and think that he is another elite play on the Pelicans. He has been amazing lately and sure he could get you like 30 fantasy points but that won’t absolutely kill you and that just feels like the floor. He also has a ton of upside for 50 fantasy points and is a great correlation play with Rondo.

Notable Injuries None

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (3 of 8)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis

Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 7:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Minnesota Timberwolves
			Vegas Total		214.0					Vegas Total		214.0
			Vegas Spread		-5.5					Vegas Spread		5.5
			Implied Team Total		109.8					Implied Team Total		104.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.3					Pace Projection +/-		0.1
Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	19	20	2	4	11		DvP	9	13	8	7	18
DRPM Rat.	18	1	28	15	24		DRPM Rat.	3	16	10	8	4

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are up 2-0 in this series and head to Minnesota for the first time where I hope the Timberwolves will wake up and make this series more competitive. The Rockets are still without Mbah a Moute but are expected to return Ryan Anderson for this game. No word on a minute’s restriction for him but I would assume they ease him back into the rotation. I expect Houston to win this game and lean on their backcourt like they always do.

James Harden and Chris Paul are going to need to play well to win this game especially if the Timberwolves find a way to be competitive. I think I will be more underweight on this backcourt than the field but it’s not that I don’t like them I just have more interest in the Pelicans and Jazz backcourt and they are cheaper around the industry. I like Harden more on DratKings where I get him at a nice discount at $10700. It’s not an easy decision to make but if you force me to pick who puts up more fantasy points between Westbrook and Harden, I like Harden more in tournaments and just think he has more upside. My only concern with Harden is that if the Rockets get up enough they could just ease off him because the way Towns and Butler are playing, if they keep this up they won’t be able to hang in this game. In cash games I think Westbrook is the safer play because I expect this game to be competitive and when games are close Westbrook typically shows up. I just worry about his upside in with Gobert protecting the rim and snagging boards. I will list Harden as an elite tournament play on DraftKings, if you like him on FanDuel you can do it, but he isn’t fitting my construction and I feel like you can spend your money elsewhere.
Chris Paul will be a fade for me. It’s not that I don’t like him I just like other plays that are a little bit cheaper and he just doesn’t fit my builds. My favorite play on the Rockets is probably Clint Capela who I think is an elite play around the industry. They need his size against Towns, Gibson and Dieng in the post. The minutes are safe, and the production is great. Although it feels pricey I don’t mind spending a little more on Capela for his safe production that comes with upside as well. Center is weak on this slate and it feels like anyone you spend on is pricey except Embiid and the cheap options just don’t feel that great. With Mbah a Moute out Ariza has stepped up and filled his role nicely. Ariza is still too cheap and a great filler play at $4600 around the industry. I like him a lot in cash games and don’t mind him in tournaments.

Notable Injuries Luc Mbah a Moute (out) and Ryan Anderson (probable)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (6 of 8)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – Clint Capela

Secondary Plays – James Harden and Trevor Ariza

Minnesota Timberwolves

I don’t know what to do with the Timberwolves. You would expect them to show up in this game, but it feels like Karl-Anthony Towns is absolutely lost. Jimmy Butler has underperformed and oh yeah Derrick Rose is getting meaningful playoff minutes. Rose led the team in usage in game one, can you believe that?? I wish I could 100% tell you what I think will happen in this game, but I truly do not know. My gut tells me that the Rockets walk into Minnesota and beat up the Timberwolves, Towns still looks lost and we are still confused by the rotations Thibodeau is running. I know it sounds lame to say that, but it just seems like the Rockets are better than the Timberwolves and all the minutes Minnesota has played all season long might be catching up to them.

So, from what I said earlier I really don’t think I am going to play a ton of Timberwolves here. Wiggins feels like he will just get you like 20-24 and at his price I will pass on that. Jeff Teague has a nice price on DraftKings, but I like another point guard eligible players that I don’t need to target Chris Paul defense. I would love to play Towns at $8300 and Butler at $7300 but I just don’t trust them. Towns seems lost and even his coach said that he hasn’t adjusted the physicality of the postseason yet. They even admitted to force feeding him to get him more production but even that didn’t work. I think you simply need to decide if he can handle this matchup or if he can’t. At this price he has a ton of upside and if you think he can bounce back play him. My bet is that he doesn’t, and the Rockets continue to make it difficult on him, so I will fade Towns. Butler also has a nice price, but I think I would rather just find the money for Paul George instead at a similar position. Taj Gibson has been playing through some pain and has acknowledged that. I don’t like playing guys who are injured and there are a lot of good forward plays around this price so that makes him a fade as well. If you think this game blows out some of the bench players become interesting, if you force me to pick one it would be Jamal Crawford. He will get run in either a close game or blowout and sees a nice usage off the bench. Either way I feel fine fading most of these Timberwolves or going underweight to the field.

Notable Injuries None

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 109.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (7 of 8)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz – 10:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder							Utah Jazz
			Vegas Total		207.0					Vegas Total		207.0
			Vegas Spread		4.5					Vegas Spread		-4.5
			Implied Team Total		101.3					Implied Team Total		105.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.8					Pace Projection +/-		-0.4
Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Corey Brewer	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams		Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	11	1	4	2	10		DvP	7	21	10	10	3
DRPM Rat.	2	6	6	10	1		DRPM Rat.	5	20	9	25	17

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are going into this series tied 1-1 and must play on the road in one of the toughest environments Utah. This is the lowest total on the board with a 207 total but I do expect it to be one of the more competitive and fun games to watch on tonight’s slate. I think the Jazz win this series, but it wouldn’t shock me to see the Thunder steal game three on the road tonight.

Russell Westbrook is a nice spend up option on tonight’s slate. I talked about the difference between Harden and Westbrook in the Rockets section, but I can sum it up again quick for you here. On DraftKings if you force me to pick between the two I like Westbrook in cash games and Harden in tournaments. Overall though I really think Ben Simmons is my favorite spend up option on today’s slate and I will be prioritizing him over these two. On FanDuel it’s a different story and I prefer more of an even across the board build but if you force me to pick I will go Harden over Westbrook on FanDuel. Both these players are talented though and I recommend playing whichever you one you prefer because I don’t think there is a big gap between the two today.

I have two plays on the Thunder that I like more than Westbrook and they are shockingly guys you never hear me talk about. Paul George is the first one because he helps fill out a bad small forward position on FanDuel and plays better in the postseason. Westbrook also can’t do it all in this series, he needs help and the Jazz are good at forcing the ball out of his hands-on drives to the hoop. That will lead to a lot more opportunities for George and Carmelo Anthony to picking up on the scoring end. Yes, you heard that right I talked about Carmelo Anthony! He has been pretty good this postseason and his price is still too cheap. Only $5600 on FanDuel and $5900 on DraftKings. I probably like other plays before Anthony in this price range, but I don’t think he should just go overlooked. Anthony is a nice secondary play on this slate and I think George is an elite play that you want to get a ton of exposure to tonight. The last guy I want to mention is Steven Adams and although his price looks great he is an easy fade for me on FanDuel. Rudy Gobert is the toughest matchup you can get in the league. I know the price looks great, but I don’t expect him to have a massive ceiling game where he can burn you and I think he continues to underperform at this price. If you want to play him on DraftKings at $5400 I totally get it and I think he has a floor of like 18 fantasy points and is way more talented than this price. So if you play him anywhere that is the spot where I do see some value.

Notable Injuries None

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 107.9 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -6.7 (8 of 8)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Paul George

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony (fanduel), Steven Adams (draftkings)

Utah Jazz

Notorious is probably going to be pumped to watch his Jazz tonight in game three tonight. I know I am, I think this game should be very competitive and one of the better games to watch. I will continue to say I think the Jazz win this series in seven and hope that this series goes the distance. I love the prices on some of these Jazz players and think there are some great plays in DFS tonight.

Ricky Rubio and Donovan Mitchell are both elite options that I want to get a lot of exposure to. On DraftKings they are $6800 and $7400 which is simply too cheap for these two. They won’t burn you at that price and have built in upside that you want to make sure you get exposure to. I will do my best to be overweight on these guys in tournaments and think they are elite cash game options as well. Joe Ingles price looks good, but he is a fine fade for me because that mid $5000 range is too strong to play him. I love Derrick Favors at $5300 on DraftKings and $5400 on FanDuel. Last game he won’t off, and the Jazz won. I expect them to take the same approach and get Favors more involved in the offense like in game two because it resulted in a win. I’m sure the Thunder will try their best to counter it but at that price even if he gets 17 less fantasy points than his last game, you are still pleased with his performance. Favors is another elite option that I want to be overweight on in Utah. Since I expect Favors to be more involved Jae Crowder becomes an easy fade. Last play on the Jazz that I should discuss is Rudy Gobert. On FanDuel at $8100 it’s too much and I think if you want a little exposure I don’t hate it, but he is more preferred on DraftKings at $6700. He has a lot upside at this price and the matchup might be tough, but he has a ton of upside with blocks and rebounds in this matchup. Gobert is a nice secondary play that I will either be even to the field or slightly overweight on.

Notable Injuries None

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 (2 of 8)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Favors

Secondary Plays – Rudy Gobert (draftkings)