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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 2nd - Page Three

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-01-03 14:03:14

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Philadelphia at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM

Philadelphia L.A. Clippers
philadelphianba Vegas Total 206 laclippersnba Vegas Total 206
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 109.8
Team Pace 99.99 Team Pace 98.54
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ish Smith Isaiah Canaan Robert Covington Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Proj Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick L. Mbah a Moute Paul Pierce DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 9 11 16 5 13 Opp. Season 16 13 30 29 28
Opp. Last 7 10 16 17 6 12 Opp. Season 7 28 15 12 23

Philadelphia

Record: 3-32 –Road: 2-20— Last 10: 2-8

The 76ers have shown some improvements with the addition of Ish Smith, but they lost to the Lakers last night and are 13 point underdogs tonight against the Clippers.

The Clippers have shown some improvement defensively and the 76ers struggle to score the ball. The Clippers have struggled against SF but Robert Covington’s playing time has not been there recently and neither has the production. Jahlil Okafor has moved to the bench with Nerlens Noel sliding to center, and the Ish Smith and Nerlens Noel pick and roll has been effective. Jahlil Okafor played well off the bench but until we see his minutes return to the 30 minutes mark, he’s a very risk fantasy option.

Elite Plays

Nerlens Noel

Noel has been rejuvanated with the return of Ish Smith to Philly. He’s topped 33 FD points in each of the four games since the trade for Ish and his price has yet to correct. Blake Griffin is out for the 76ers and DeAndre Jordan is not a great defender so this is a solid matchup.

FD — $6,300– PF
DK — $6,500 PF
Min/Game —Season: 29.4 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 25.4

Secondary Plays

Ish Smith (FD ONLY)

Ish threw up a complete dud in a matchup where he was highly owned last night so I’d expect lower ownership tonight. The matchup isn’t ideal as Chris Paul can be a great defender, but he’s shown some slippage this year and I’m not sure how amped up he’ll be for this game. He is way too expensive on DK, but he’s still affordable on FD, and other than the dud last night, has played well for the 76ers.

FD — $5,800– PG
DK — $7,200 PG
Min/Game —Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 23.2

L.A. Clippers

Record: 21-13 -Home 10-6 — Last 10: 7-3

The Clippers draw the elite matchup on the board against the 76ers, but as is always the case with the 76ers, the risk of a blowout is concerning. The Clippers are 13 point favorites and their bench has surprisingly played well recently, which has resulted in a lesser minutes load for their starters. Vegas is expecting them to have plenty of success offensively though as they are projected at 111 points, which is 8 higher than their season average.

With Blake Griffin out, Paul Pierce has stepped into the starting lineup and is playing around 21 MPG. He’s still cheap but likely lacks upside as the Clippers are unlikely to extend him in an easy matchup with the 76ers. the primary beneficiaries should continue to be Chris Paul, J. J. Redick and DeAndre Jordan. However, the risk of a blowout is concerning so someone like Jamal Crawford could also be worth a look off the bench. The 76ers have defended SG well on the year but has changed recently so both Redick and Crawford are worth of consideration.

Blake Griffin (O)

Elite Plays

Chris Paul

I’m struggling on where to put CP3 as the blowout risk is very concerning and he’s had a tendency in the past to go through the motions and just look to pass in games like this. The matchup is certainly there as the 76ers are obviously a very poor defense, and the offense is now running through him. Overall, I think he is a safe cash game play but am not sure he has the upside for tournaments.

FD — $8,900– PG
DK — $9,300 PG
Min/Game —Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 36.7

Deandre Jordan

Jordan saw a big uptick in rebounding last year when Griffin was injured and that has been the case as well this season. He has at least 13 rebounds in each of the past five games, and there should be plenty of rebounds available with the poor 76ers offense. The blowout risk is still looming but he does provide cheaper exposure to the Clippers offense than Chris Paul, and should dominate this weak interior, even if he just plays 30 minutes.

FD — $7,800– C
DK — $7,800 C
Min/Game —Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 33.3

J. J. Redick

Redick has started to heat up from the field and is getting more opportunities with the injury to Blake. He’s scored 26 points in each of the past two games, and the 76ers defense against SG has started to come back to earth. The one downside to Redick is that he is very scoring dependent so if his shot is not falling then he can throw up a dud. However, based on this matchup, he should be able to score the ball effectively here.

FD — $5,000– SG
DK — $5,500 SG
Min/Game —Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 28.2
FP/Game — Season: 20.1

Secondary Plays

Jamal Crawford

Crawford is a guy to possibly consider if you’re playing the blowout angle. He also seems to have benefitted from Blake’s injury and has hit 5x value in three straight games on FD.

FD — $3800– SG
DK — $4,000 SG
Min/Game —Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 23.6
FP/Game — Season: 17

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a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)