NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 2nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Brooklyn at Boston – 03:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -8.5, 204.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Johnson-Bogdanovic-Young-Lopez
- Boston Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Sullinger
| Brooklyn | Boston | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 204 | | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.0 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.76 | Team Pace | 100.95 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Joe Johnson | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Jared Sullinger | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 8 | 23 | 21 | 17 | Opp. Season | 27 | 24 | 19 | 10 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 1 | 24 | 25 | 11 | Opp. Season | 9 | 20 | 9 | 28 | 26 | |
Brooklyn
Record: 9-23 — Road: 3-13 — Last 10: 2-8
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 97.1 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.8
Projected Point Differential: 0.7
The Nets have been the second worst team in the East this season and their recent play doesn’t indicate any progress on the horizon. Tonight, the head to Boston to face a solid Boston defense, in a game that has some blowout potential as the Celtics are 9 point underdogs.
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.8 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.17 (12 of 30)
The Celtics have played rock solid defense this year and have been the second best team in terms of defensive efficiency. They’ve particularly played great perimeter defense but the one place they have struggled is on the interior. They have struggled to rebound the ball and opposing front courts have had some success against them as evidenced by the DVP numbers.
- Injury Watch:
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez
Lopez is coming off of two monster games, including an impressive double double against a tough Miami defense. He has one of the highest usage rates among centers and has the ability to post a big game, regardless of opponent, which puts him on the tournament radar on a nightly basis. His individual matchup with Boston is solid, but his team’s overall matchup is not ideal so he’s a secondary tournament option tonight. In two matchups with Boston this year, he’s averaged 18.5 PPG and 8.5 rebounds per game.
FD — $8,700 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
Min/Game —Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 35.4
Thaddeus Young
Young is in a similar spot as Brook Lopez in that he has an ok individual matchup, but his team’s overall matchup knocks him down a peg. In two matchups with Boston this year, he’s averaged 12.5 PPG and 11 rebounds in 27 MPG.
FD — $6,700 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.3
Boston
Record: 18-14 — Home: 9-8 — Last 10: 5-5
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.1 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.8
Projected Point Differential: 3.7
The Celtics have been average over their past 10 games, but draw a quality matchup with a bad Brooklyn team that has struggled on the road. They are projected to score 3.7 points higher than their season average, and the only concern here would be a potential blowout and the Celtics tendency to play a deep rotation.
- * Nets Defense*
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +1.2 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.0 (26 of 30)
The Nets have been a very poor defensive team this year as they struggle in every category except rebounding the basketball. The Celtics draw great matchups across the board, but Brad Stevens will divide up the minutes, especially on the interior, so they can be a tough team to target. Marcus Smart has returned to the lineup and is expected to see a boost in minutes up from the 11 he’s been seeing, but I still wouldn’t expect enough minutes to put him back on the fantasy radar. Kelly Olynk actually started the 2nd half of the last game in place of Amir Johnson, which is something to monitor, but the minutes of the Boston front court is very tough to nail down. Evan Turner has been playing well off the bench, but is a deep GPP only option on a larger slate like tonight.
- Injury Watch:
R. J. Hunter (GTD)
Elite Plays
Isaiah Thomas
Brooklyn has been one of the worst teams in the NBA against opposing PGs so this profiles as a nice spot for Thomas. A potential blowout is a slight concern, but his minutes and production have been very steady. In two matchups with the Nets, he’s averaged 22.5 PPG and 7.5 assists per game in 29 MPG, and if he sees his season average in minutes then he should produce a quality outing.
FD — $8,100 — PG
DK — $7,800 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 34.5
Secondary Plays
Jae Crowder
Crowder has produced 29 or more FD points in five of his last six games as he’s seen close to 35 MPG. Along with Thomas and Avery Bradley, his minutes are the most stable on the Celtics. He’s underwhelmed against Brooklyn this year averaging 12 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2 assists, but the Nets perimeter defense is very poor so the matchup is there for him to continue his hot streak.
FD — $5,900 — SF
DK — $6,200 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 25.4
Phoenix at Sacramento – 05:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Knight-Booker-Tucker-Leuer-Chandler
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Rondo-McLemore-Gay-Casspi-Cousins
| Phoenix | Sacramento | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.88 | Team Pace | 102.13 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Devin Booker | P.J. Tucker | Jon Leuer | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Omri Casspi | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 29 | 24 | 28 | 27 | Opp. Season | 28 | 26 | 26 | 15 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 30 | 13 | 29 | 16 | Opp. Season | 30 | 17 | 23 | 11 | 9 | |
Phoenix
Record: 12-23 — Road: 4-13 — Last 10: 1-9
- Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Team Total: TBD
Projected Point Differential:TBD
The wheels have come completely off in Phoenix as they’ve lost Eric Bledsoe for the season and they’ve begun to fire assistant coaches as they’re playing awful basketball. However, they are in a nice spot to get going offensively tonight as they’ll face the Kings, who are one of the leagues’ worst defenses.
- Sacramento Kings Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.80 (29 of 30)
Both teams are dealing with some injuries so this game is currently off the board in Vegas. Jon Leuer missed the last game with an ankle injury, which allowed T. J. Warren to step into the starting lineup. Markieff Morris was also a DNP-CD, which opened up bigger minutes for Tyson Chandler. With Leuer out, Hornacek went with an eight man rotation last game, with all the starters playing big minutes so there is some potential upside for the Suns, who are all very cheap around the industry.
- Injury Watch:
Jon Leuer (Q)
Ronnie Price (Q)
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight
With Eric Bledsoe out for the year, Knight will get a big usage boost as the primary ball handler. He hasn’t seen an uptick in fantasy production yet, but he played 42 minutes last game and took 20 shots. Given the Kings’ awful defense across the board, this could be the breakout spot and his price is depressed, especially on FD at just $6,500.
FD — $6,500 — PG
DK — $7,400 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.8
T. J. Warren (if he starts)
Warren stepped into the starting lineup and exploded for 29 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 4 steals in 41 minutes against the Thunder. “(player-popup)Jon Leuer”:/players/jon-leuer-13317’s status is up in the air so it remains to be seen if he’ll draw another start. However, one would think that he’s locked in big minutes regardless due to his performance last game. Also, the Kings do play small which bodes well for the Suns matching them with a P. J. Tucker and Warren pairing at forward today.
FD — $4,600 — SF
DK — $4,800 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 24.8
FP/Game — Season: 18.6
Secondary Plays
Devin Booker
With Brandon Knight sliding over to full time PG, there will be minutes at SG for Booker. He doesn’t stuff the stat sheet, but he can really shoot and he is cheap. His minutes don’t look completely solid yet, which is why he’s a secondary option, but he should be able to score against a Sacramento team that hasn’t been able to defend SGs for three years.
FD — $3,600 — SG
DK — $4,000 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 28.0
FP/Game — Season: 9.6
P. J. Tucker
His offensive usage is negligible but his minutes are on the rise recently. The matchup is great against a very bad Sacramento defense and he’s quietly produced 24 FD points in four of his last five games, with the only exception being against an elite Spurs defense.
FD — $4,300 — SF
DK — $4,600 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 16.4
Tyson Chandler
He’s really struggled in Phoenix and is just working his way back from injury. However, he’s stepped back into the starting lineup for Alex Len, and has notched two straight double doubles. “(player-popup)Alex Len”:/players/alex-len-16886’s minutes have trended down recently so Chandler looks to be on the upswing and is a borderline elite option on DK at just $3,900.
FD — $4,200 — C
DK — $3,900 — C
Min/Game —Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 20.8
FP/Game — Season: 16.7
Sacramento
Record: 12-20 — Home: 8-9 — Last 10: 5-5
- Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.2 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: TBD
Projected Point Differential:TBD
This game doesn’t currently have a total due to some injury uncertainty, but I would expect a very high scoring game as neither of these teams likes to play defense.
- Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.05 (21 of 30)
The Suns blew the Kings out earlier this year but that was when Phoenix had Eric Bledoe and the Kings were without DeMarcus Cousins. I’d expect a much different result this time and both teams should have plenty of success offensively. The big injury to monitor here is the status of Rudy Gay, who is questionable with a sore achilles. If he were to sit then Omri Casspi would be locked into monster minutes, and Marco Belinelli would likely see a solid boost off of the bench.
- Injury Watch:
Rudy Gay (Q)
Willie Cauley-Stein (O)
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (GPP)
Boogie has not been very good recently as he was ejected against the Warriors and produced a disappointing effort against the 76ers as he fouled out. However, he always brings that monster tournament winning upside and a matchup with the weak defense of the Suns is attractive. He does draw the toughest matchup on the board for the Kings as the Suns have been good against opposing centers so he’s a secondary cash game option, but an elite tournament option.
FD — $9,700 — C
DK — $10,000 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 42.4
Omri Casspi
Casspi has played monster minutes since his insertion into the starting lineup. His rebounding has seen a big uptick with the Kings’ move to small ball as he’s produced double digit boards in three of his last four. His price is on the rise on, particularly on DK, but the production has been there for the most part. He’d be more of a secondary DK option if Rudy Gay plays, but if Gay is out then he’d likely be in line to threaten 40 minutes of playing time.
FD — $5,700 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 30.0 Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 23.3
Rajon Rondo
Like the rest of the Kings, Rondo’s performance has been uneven of late. However, he is a nightly tripe double threat and draws an elite matchup against a Phoenix defense that is 28th in DVP against PG.
FD — $7,800 — PG
DK — $8,300 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 42.4
Secondary Plays
Oklahoma City at Charlotte – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -7, 208.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Batum-Hairston-Williams-Zeller
| Oklahoma City | Charlotte | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208 | | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.8 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.70 | Team Pace | 98.41 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | P.J. Hairston | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 21 | 6 | 27 | 20 | Opp. Season | 22 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 15 | 12 | 21 | 16 | Opp. Season | 17 | 19 | 30 | 26 | 2 | |
Oklahoma City
Record: 23-10 –Road: 7-6 — Last 10: 8-2
- Oklahoma City Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 108.7 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.5
Projected Point Differential: -1.2
The Thunder have started to play much better recently, and have featured one of the league’s best offenses all year long. Their team total is slightly lower than their season average, but they are road favorites and the Hornets are expected to keep this one close, so Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook should play their full allotment of minutes.
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.79 (19 of 30)
The Hornets have been a solid defensive team this year and have actually defended PG and SF very well so this isn’t an elite matchup for Durant and Westbrook, particularly for Durant as Nicolas Batum is a quality defender. The weakness of the Hornets defense has been their interior defense so Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter are on the GPP radar.
- Injury Watch:
NONE
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook
While the Hornets have defended PG very well this year, Russell Westbrook is not your typical point guard, and has been on another planet recently. Despite the return of Kevin Durant, he’s continued to put up monster numbers and has topped 50 FD points in five of his last six games. He’s matchup proof, and while he’s not the first guy I’m putting into my lineup, he’s an elite option if you have the salary cap.
FD — $11,000— PG
DK — $10,700- PG
Min/Game —Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 49.6
Kevin Durant
Durant is in a similar boat to Westbrook in that he draws a tough matchup, but he’s an elite talent that is matchup proof. He’s taken a slight backseat to Westbrook recently and I’m giving the edge to Kawhi Leonard at SF, who is a little cheaper, but Durant is a nightly elite option.
FD — $9,800 — SF
DK — $9,900 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 43.6
Secondary Plays
Enes Kanter
Kanter has been on a roll as he’s produced 6x value on FD in five of his last seven games. However, those other two games he’s produced 5 and 11 FD points, so he is very volatile as his minutes are not secure. He’s shown a ceiling of around 26 minutes with a floor of just 14 so he’s a tournament option only. I could see him dominating the depleted Hornets interior or I could see him struggling to guard the Charlotte bigs on the perimeter and playing limited minutes.
FD — $5,100 — C
DK — $5,000 — C
Min/Game —Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 21.8
FP/Game — Season: 22.2
Serge Ibaka
I’m not a big fan of rostering Ibaka myself as his rebounding is down and Westbrook and Durant take up huge usage for OKC. However, he does provide block upside and has the ability to produce 35 to 40 FD points. The matchup is certainly there for one of his big games as Charlotte is 27th against PF and gets blocked 4.81 times per game, but he’s a guy that is much more suited to tournaments.
FD — $6,200 — PF
DK — $6,400 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 21.8
FP/Game — Season: 27
Charlotte
Record: 17-15 — Home: 13-6 – Last 10: 3-7
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.2 (9 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.0
Projected Point Differential: -1.5
The Hornets are dealing with a rash of injuries and lost last night in Toronto. It won’t get much easier tonight as they’ll be on a back to back and facing one of the NBA’s best teams in the Thunder. They check in as 6 point underdogs, but are expected to keep it competitive as they have played very well at home this year.
- Oklahoma City Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +7.1 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 191.66 (6 of 30)
The Thunder have been much improved defensively this year so this is a tough matchup for the Hornets. However, due to their injury situation, some of the Hornets are playing monster minutes, which will keep them on the fantasy radar.
- Injury Watch:
Al Jefferson (O)
Spencer Hawes (Q)
Jeremy Lin (Q)
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker
Kemba has stepped into huge minutes recently as he’s averaging close to 40 MPG over his last five games. He struggled last night, but he’ll be returning home where he shoots 45% compared to just 41% on the road, as well as 42% from three compared to 29% on the road. While Westbrook is an elite offensive player, his defense can be lacking at times as OKC weakness on defense has been opposing PG.
FD — $8,600 — PG
DK — $7,900 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 39.2
FP/Game — Season: 34.1
Secondary Plays
Nicolas Batum
Batum is a little banged up, but he’s playing through it due to the Hornets’ injuries and has topped 40 minutes in each of his last two games. He should play big minutes once again to try to slow Durant, but foul trouble can be a concern when guarding someone like Durant. His price is elevated and the Thunder have defended SF well so he’s a secondary option, but his minute volume is attractive.
FD — $7,400 — SF
DK — $7,500 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 39.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.9
Cody Zeller (if Spencer Hawes is out)
Al Jefferson is out and Spencer Hawes has missed the last few games so Zeller, Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky have seen a minutes spike. The Thunder’s interior defense has been very tough so I’d only look Zeller’s way if Hawes is confirmed out. However, Zeller has taken advantage of the injury situation as he’s averaging 30 MPG over his last five games and has produced 27 or more FD points in four of those games.
FD — $4,700 — PF
DK — $5,000 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 19.2
Frank Kaminsky (if Spencer Hawes is out)
Kaminsky is in the same boat as Zeller in that the matchup is tough but he’s seen an uptick in minutes to the Hornets injuries. He’s averaged 26.6 MPG over his last five games and has produced 23 FD points or more in three of his last five.
FD — $4,100 — PF
DK — $4,600 — C
Min/Game —Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 26.6
FP/Game — Season: 14.6
Detroit at Indiana – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -4.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Morris-Ilyasova-Drummond
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-Miles-George-Mahinmi
| Detroit | Indiana | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 203 | | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.93 | Team Pace | 99.46 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Ersan Ilyasova | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | C.J. Miles | Paul George | Ian Mahinmi | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 23 | 5 | 20 | 14 | Opp. Season | 7 | 10 | 2 | 24 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 14 | 21 | 14 | 4 | Opp. Season | 15 | 11 | 7 | 24 | 10 | |
Detroit
Record: 18-15 –Road: 7-10 — Last 10: 6-4
- Detroit Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.4 (15 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.5
Projected Point Differential: -2.9
The Pistons draw a tough matchup as they head on the road to face a tough Indiana defense. These teams have split the season series as Indiana won 94-82 in Detroit in the first meeting, while Detroit dominated the second meeting in Detroit 118-96.
- Indiana Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.3 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.07 (9 of 30)
The Pacers’ defensive metrics are very solid across the board, but they do struggle to rebound the ball and could be thin on the interior so a big Andre Drummond night on the boards could be in the works. The Pacers’ biggest struggles defensively have been against SG and on the interior so Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Andre Drummond are the top options from the Pistons.
- Injury Watch:
NONE
Elite Plays
Andre Drummond
The weakness of the Pacers has been their interior defense, particularly their rebounding, and the status of two of their big men, Jordan Hill and Ian Mahinmi, is in question. He’s not a cash game necessity but Drummond does present big upside in this matchup, He struggled in the second meeting between these teams but dominated the first one with 25 points and 29 rebounds.
FD — $9,400 — C
DK — $9,400 — C
Min/Game —Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 43.3
Secondary Plays
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
KCP is always a bit of a dice roll as his minutes are very secure, but his production is still very volatile as he’s very scoring dependent. Monta Ellis has never been known as a quality defender and it’s shown up in Indiana this year as they’ve struggled against opposing SG. KCP has flashed 35 FD point upside recently and has averaged 15 PPG, 6 rebounds and 6 assists in two meetings with the Pacers this year.
FD — $5,700 — SG
DK — $5,200 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 37.6 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 23.6
Indiana
Record: 18-14 –Home: 11-5 — Last 10: 5-5
- Indiana Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.0
Projected Point Differential: +0.3
The Pacers haven’t been great recently as Paul George has struggled with his shot, but they’ve played well at home and their team total is right in line with their season average of 102.7 PPG.
- Detroit Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.3 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +3.4 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.55 (7 of 30)
The Pistons are top 10 in DVP against every position except for PF so this is a tough matchup for the Pacers. The Pacers are dealing with injuries on the interior and the Pistons are small at PF, so I’m expecting Indiana to roll with their small lineup with Paul George at PF.
- Injury Watch:
Jordan Hill (Q)
Ian Mahinmi (Q)
UPDATE – The matchup is tough but if Ian Mahinmi and Jordan Hill remain out then Lavoy Allen enters the equation as a value play.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Paul George (GPP)
Paul George has struggled with his shot recently, but he finally shot the ball well in his last game so maybe he’s busting out of his slump. He draws the one quality matchup on the Pacers as the Pistons are 25th in DVP against PF. I’d look to him more on FD as a solid tournament option at just $8,600. He has struggled mightily against the Pistons this year as he’s averaging just 14.5 PPG, 7.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists, but that did come on just 27% from the field.
FD — $8,600 — SF
DK — $8,800 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 39.4
Orlando at Cleveland – 07:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -8.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Fournier-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Thompson
| Orlando | Cleveland | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 193 | | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 101.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.03 | Team Pace | 95.39 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 2 | Opp. Season | 13 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 25 | 19 | 18 | 13 | Opp. Season | 22 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 6 | |
Orlando
Record: 19-14 –Road: 7-8 — Last 10: 7-3
- Orlando Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 100.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 92.8
Projected Point Differential: -8.3
The Magic have been playing very good basketball, but are coming off of a loss to Washington last night and will head to Cleveland to face a Cavaliers team that has been elite at home. They are 9 point under dogs and have a projected team total that is 8 points lower than their season average so they are a team to tread lightly with. Cleveland has handled them easily in two meetings this year as they beat Orlando 117-103 in Cleveland and then drubbed them 111 to 76 in their last meeting.
- Cleveland Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.7 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +3.3 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 186.25 (3 of 30)
The Cavaliers’ defensive metrics are elite across the board and the only position that they’ve somewhat struggled against is SG. Given the larger slate and elite Cavs defense, the Magic are a team that can be safely avoided across the board. On the injury front, Elfrid Payton has been playing through an ankle injury and has been limited, but given the tough matchup, he wasn’t really on the fantasy radar anyway.
- Injury Watch:
C. J. Watson (O)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Cleveland
Record: 21-9 –Home: 13-1 — Last 10: 8-2
- Cleveland Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.7 (21 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.8
Projected Point Differential: 1.1
The Cavs are playing very good basketball as they are 8-2 in their last 10 and have been dominant at home this year with only one loss. They are installed as solid 9 point favorites with a projected team total just above their season average.
- Orlando Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +0.5 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.13 (13 of 30)
The Magic have been solid defensively this year as they 6th in points allowed per game and are top 15 in DVP against every position. They have struggled against PF recently but the return of Kyrie Irving has muddled the situation in Cleveland as there is less usage to go around. As a result, I’d only look to Lebron James and Kevin Love as secondary options at best, while Kyrie is still working his way back into form.
- Injury Watch:
NONE
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
LeBron James
With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, we could see LeBron James start to back off a little as he’s coasted at times during this portion of the season in recent years. He did play well last game, but that was without Kyrie Irving, so with Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard on the slate at SF, LeBron takes a back seat as a secondary option tonight. In the two previous meetings with Orlando, which also came without Kyrie in the lineup, he averaged 20 points, 10.5 assists, and 4.5 rebounds.
FD — $9,800 — SF
DK — $9,700 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 44.2
Kevin Love
Orlando has struggled against PF recently, and I think their struggles are here to stay as Channing Frye’s defense was eventually going to be exploited. Love has also played well against the Magic this year as he’s averaged 21 PPG, 10 rebounds and 5 assists over two meetings. However, he was the one to take the back seat last year when all of the Cavs big three were healthy so a drop in production could be in the works with the return of Kyrie to the lineup.
FD — $7,300 — PF
DK — $7,500 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 33.8
