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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 2nd - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-01-02 20:15:26

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Milwaukee at Minnesota – 08:00 PM

Milwaukee Minnesota
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 203 minnesotanba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 96.39 Team Pace 98.09
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 21 20 13 8 16 Opp. Season 15 14 27 22 12
Opp. Last 7 18 23 14 1 21 Opp. Season 26 18 29 13 28

Milwaukee

Record: 13-21 –Road: 4-15 — Last 10: 4-6

Something will have to give tonight as the Bucks have been a terrible road team, while Minnesota has been a terrible home team. Vegas is giving the slight edge to Minnesota but this game is expected to be very competitive and the Bucks have a slightly elevated team total compared to their season average.

Minnesota has shown some improvement defensively this year, but they are still a sub-par defense, particularly against PG and SG, which puts Michael Carter-Williams and Khris Middleton on the fantasy radar. Greg Monroe draws an average matchup but he’s been struggling recently and there are safer centers on the board today.

Greivis Vasquez (O)

Elite Plays

Michael Carter-Williams

Like Middleton, MCW has also started to play some very good ball lately. He still tends to be a volatile option that can give you 40 fantasy points or 20 fantasy points, but he’s produced 38 FD points in five of his last seven games. He’s stuffing the stat sheet and he draws a quality matchup with Ricky Rubio, who is not a great defender. For GPPs, MCW could be considered an elite option as he’s certainly flashed tournament winning upside recently.

FD — $6,700 — PG
DK — $6,700 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 30.0 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 26.7

Secondary Plays

Khris Middleton

Middleton struggled to start the season, but has really started to ramp up his production recently. He’s averaging 15 FGA, 25 PPG, 5 assists and 3.8 rebounds over his past five games. Unfortunately, his price tag has caught up quickly so he’s not an extreme value. However, he’s been particularly good over his last two games and Minnesota is 20th in DVP against SG so he’s a fine secondary option, and borderline elite option, if you’re looking for a mid-priced SF.

FD — $6,800 — SF
DK — $6,800 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 27

Minnesota

Record: 12-21 –Home: 5-12 — Last 10: 3-7

Minnesota has oddly really struggled at home this year, but they have an opportunity to pick up a much needed win against a Milwaukee team that struggles on the road. Vegas is giving them a slight bump tonight as their team total is 1.2 points higher than their season average.

Milwaukee was a quality defensive team last year, but they’ve really fallen off this season as they are ranked 22nd or below in all of the above defensive metrics. They’ve particularly struggled against PG and Centers in recent week so Ricky Rubio and Karl Anthony-Towns profile as the top options on Minnesota. In terms of injury news, Kevin Garnett should return to the lineup after resting last game so Gorgui Dieng will likely return to his bench role.

Nikola Pekovic (O)

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP)

KAT started the year off with a bang but then tailed off as his minutes became very volatile. He’s recently seen a bump in minutes up to 34 over his last five, and unsurprisingly his production has upticked as well. He’s averaged 18 PPG and 10 rebounds over his last five games despite facing tough defense like San Antonio (twice), Utah, Detroit and Indiana. Foul trouble is a concern with a young rookie so he might be better suited for tournaments but the upside for a big game is there tonight as Milwaukee’s interior defense has been very poor recently.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,000 — C
Min/Game —Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 32.3

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio

Like KAT, Rubio has played well against some tough competition recently, but gets a somewhat softer matchup tonight. He brings triple double upside to the table, but he’s more of a tournament option as Minnesota will manage his minutes at times.

FD — $7,60 — PG
DK — $6,800— PG
Min/Game —Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 31.3

Houston at San Antonio – 08:30 PM

Houston San Antonio
houstonnba Vegas Total 201 sanantonionba Vegas Total 201
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 95.3 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 100.03 Team Pace 95.62
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Dwight Howard Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 6 1 1 1 3 Opp. Season 20 22 28 30 18
Opp. Last 7 1 7 2 4 14 Opp. Season 16 27 1 30 22

Houston

Record: 16-18 –Road: 6-9 — Last 10: 4-6

The Rockets have continued to be a disappointment this season and check in as 11 point underdogs against a Spurs team that hasn’t lost at home. The Spurs are the league’s elite defense and the Rockets have a team total 9.3 points lower than their season average.

As has been the case all year long the Spurs are playing elite defensively and the smart route is to just avoid them completely. The Rockets did manage to beat the Spurs on Christmas day but scored only 88 points in the process. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green held James Harden to just 36 FD points so tread lightly.

NONE

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio

Record: 28-6 –Home: 19-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Spurs are in a nice spot as they’ll face the weak defense of the Houston Rockets and as a result have a team total 3.8 points higher than their season average.

The Rockets rank poorly in every defensive metric so this is a great matchup across the board for the Spurs. They only scored 84 points on Christmas Day against Houston, but Vegas is expecting a much better performance this time around. The primary problem with the Spurs is that outside of Kawhi Leonard, no Spur plays heavy minutes. LaMarcus Aldridge draws an elite matchup but his minutes and production just aren’t matchup up to his current salary.

Tim Duncan sat out last game but is expected to return to action tonight.

NONE

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

Leonard is the one Spur that plays big minutes and he’s the building block for my rosters tonight. He can fill up the stat sheet in every category and draws an elite matchup with a Houston team that is 28th in DVP against SF on the season. He took advantage on Christmas as he produced 50 FD points in 39 minutes against Houston.

FD — $8,600 — SF
DK — $8,500 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 38.5

Secondary Plays

NONE

New Orleans at Dallas – 08:30 PM

New Orleans Dallas
neworleansnba Vegas Total 206 dallasnba Vegas Total 206
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 98.68 Team Pace 98.02
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Tyreke Evans Eric Gordon Alonzo Gee Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj Starter Raymond Felton Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 14 7 10 26 7 Opp. Season 24 27 11 23 30
Opp. Last 7 8 13 16 8 25 Opp. Season 2 29 5 20 24

New Orleans

Record: 10-22 –Road: 3-15 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pelicans have lost three of their last four, and have struggled on the road this year. However, Vegas has them installed as just 2.5 point underdogs so this one should remain close. This is the third meeting between these teams as they lost the first matchup in Dallas 107-98, but won the second matchup in New Orleans 120-105.

The Mavs have made some improvements defensively this year but they are still a pedestrian defense. They’ve particularly struggled against PF so despite how disappointing he’s been this year, this looks like a great spot for Anthony Davis.

NONE

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis

Davis has had two disappointing games recently and has been up and down all year, which should serve to keep his ownership down. Dallas is 26th in DVP against PF and he’s at a huge athletic advantage over Dirk Nowitzki. He was injured after only 19 minutes in one of the meetings with Dallas, but as is always the case with Davis, he presents huge upside if can stay on the court.

FD — $10,100— PF
DK — $10,300- PF
Min/Game —Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 44.3

Secondary Plays

Tyreke Evans

Tyreke draws a mediocre matchup with the Mavs, who are 14th in DVP against PGs. The Mavs don’t feature an elite shot blocker so he should be able to get to the rim and is worthy of consideration for tournaments.

FD — $7,500— PG
DK — $7,700- SG
Min/Game —Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.5

Dallas

Record: 19-14 –Home: 10-5— Last 10: 6-4

The Mavs draw one of the better matchups on the board as they’ll get a pace bump as they face the uptempo Pelicans, who struggle defensively. The Mavs have averaged 106 PPG in the two matchups with the Pelicans and are projected at 105 points tonight.

The Pelicans have really struggled against every position except for SF. The problem in targeting Dallas is that they are somewhat like the Spurs in that they can really spread production around as there’s no go to option. Deron Williams did return to the lineup last night, but came off the bench and played just 20 minutes last night. This is also the third game in four nights for Dallas so a veteran like Dirk Nowitzki likely won’t top 30 minutes.

NONE

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chandler Parsons

Parsons has stepped back into the starting lineup and has been playing 30+ minutes a nightly. He looked like he was returning to form a few games ago, but has really struggled over his past two games. The Pelicans have defended fairly well, but this is a pace up game and Parsons remains on the radar as a secondary option on a site like FD where 2 SF are required.

FD — $5,200— SF
DK — $5,800- SF
Min/Game —Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 16.8

Zaza Pachulia

Zaza tends to have a minutes ceiling so his upside is limited, but he’s produced 30+ FD points in four straight games. The Pelicans interior defense has been very porous and another double double for Zaza could be in the works.

FD — $6,500— C
DK — $5,600- C
Min/Game —Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 28.2
FP/Game — Season: 26.7

Memphis at Utah – 09:00 PM

Memphis Utah
memphisnba Vegas Total utahnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 96.06 Team Pace 93.96
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Jeff Withey
Opp. Season 18 2 7 4 4 Opp. Season 12 6 22 18 6
Opp. Last 7 19 12 3 22 18 Opp. Season 4 6 26 17 1

Memphis

Record: 18-16 –Road: 7-10 — Last 10: 5-5

This game features two of the lower scoring teams in the NBA and doesn’t look like a great game to target for fantasy purposes. The first meeting between these teams resulted in a low scoring 89 to 79 Utah victory, although that came with Rudy Gobert in the Utah lineup.

The Jazz have continued to play solid defense with Rudy Gobert out of the lineup, but their interior defense has started to suffer recently, especially with Derrick Favors out of the lineup as well. With Matt Barnes suspended last game, the Grizzlies inserted Zach Randolph back into the starting lineup and shifted Jeff Green back to SF.

Matt Barnes (O)
Brandan Wright (O)

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol

Utah’s defense against opposing centers has really started to suffer, and Derrick Favors looks to be once again questionable for tonight. They are 18th in DVP against centers over the past two weeks and Jeff Withey is not built to slow down all star level big men. Gasol has been more volatile in years past but the pace of the game should favor the Memphis bigs and the matchup is no longer fearsome.

FD — $8,100— C
DK — $7,200- C
Min/Game —Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 33

Zach Randolph

He’s a GPP only option but he stepped back into the starting lineup due to Matt Barnes suspension, and should continue to start tonight. He responded with 27 FD points and draws a nice matchup if Derrick Favors misses another game.

FD — $6,100— PF
DK — $6,000- PF
Min/Game —Season: 28.9 | Last Five Games: 27.4
FP/Game — Season: 25.3

Utah

Record: 14-17 –Home: 9-7 — Last 10: 4-6

Utah is a plodding offense and this is an unappetizing game from a fantasy perspective. Utah is really hurting for offense right now as Alec Burks is out for the year, and Derrick Favors has missed the last few games with back injuries.

The Grizzlies have not been the elite defense they’ve been in the past, but this Utah offense is really struggling to score right now. The big injury news to monitor is the status of Derrick Favors, who is questionable for tonight. With Favors out, Gordon Hayward has picked up a big offensive load and Trey Burke has seen a big usage bump off the bench. If Derrick Favors return, the Jazz are a team that can be faded entirely, but if he sits, usage could carry Hayward and Burke, although neither are elite options.

Rudy Gobert (O)
Alec Burks (O)
Derrick Favors (Q)

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

Memphis has struggled against SF this season and will be without Matt Barnes, who can be a solid defender. With Derrick Favors out of the lineup and Alec Burks out for the year, Hayward has been seeing upward of 20 FGA per game.

FD — $7,600— SF
DK — $7,500- SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.2

Denver at Golden State – 10:30 PM

Denver Golden State
denvernba Vegas Total goldenstatenba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 97.62 Team Pace 101.87
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jameer Nelson Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Joffrey Lauvergne Proj Starter Shaun Livingston Klay Thompson Brandon Rush Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 23 4 17 17 21 Opp. Season 29 30 15 16 24
Opp. Last 7 20 10 22 16 30 Opp. Season 24 21 28 9 15

Denver

Record: 12-21 –Road: 7-11 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nuggets are headed into the toughest arena in the NBA to face a Golden State team that is undefeated at home. If Stephen Curry happens to suit up then this one is likely headed towards a blowout and could easily result in a blowout even if he doesn’t play.

The Warriors are one of the better defenses in the NBA but allow a solid amount of points due to their pace of play. The Nuggets are one of the tougher teams in the NBA to target though as their minutes can be unpredictable, especially on the interior. Further complicating matters is that Danilo Gallinari is expected to return tonight and Jusuf Nurkic is expected to make his season debut.

Emmanuel Mudiay (O)
Danilo Gallinari (P)
Nikola Jokic (Q)
Jusuf Nurkic (P)

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Will Barton

He’s been playing very well recently, but his price is on the rise, and the return of Danilo Gallinari does provide some uncertainty as his minutes have oddly been volatile in the past. However, he’s topped 39 FD in each of his past two games and the pace of this game should suit him to a T so he’s a viable GPP option.

FD — $7,200— SG
DK — $7,300- SG
Min/Game —Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 29.2

Golden State

Record: 30-2 –Home: 15-0 — Last 10: 8-2

The Warriors should continue to roll tonight and the only question is how quickly it gets out of hand and whether Stephen Curry suits up.

The Nuggets have been a poor defense team all season long and have struggled against every position except for SF. This one really boils down to whether Stephen Curry plays. If Currys sits then Draymond Green, Shaun Livingston and Klay Thompson become elite options. Andre Iguodala would also see a boost in usage as well and would be a viable secondary SF on FD. If Curry happens to play then Livingston is off the radar, and the likelihood of a blowout becomes very concerning.

Stephen Curry (Q)
Leandro Barbosa (D)
Harrison Barnes (D)
Festus Ezeli (Q)

Elite Plays

Klay Thompson (secondary option if Curry plays)

With Curry out of the lineup, Klay becomes the go to option offensively and tuned up the Rockets for 38 points. The Nuggets are dead last in DVP against SG this year making Klay an elite option if Curry sits for another game. If Curry happens to play, I’d bump down Klay to a secondary option.

FD — $7,400— SG
DK — $7,700 SG
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.3

Draymond Green

Draymond bounced back from a sub-par showing against Dallas with a big triple double against Houston. He’s stuffed the stat sheet all year long and has been terrific, regardless of whether Curry is in the lineup or not. He gets an obvious usage boost if Curry sits, but he’s played well alongside Curry this year as Curry’s presence in the pick and roll really opens things up for him. I’d be more inclined to pay up to Anthony Davis if Curry does play, but Draymond looks to be in a great spot against the weak Denver interior.

FD — $9,400– PF
DK — $9,600 PF
Min/Game —Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 38.8

Shaun Livingston (if Curry out)

With Curry out, Livingston has moved into the starting lineup and averaged 27 MPG. The Nuggets perimeter defense has been atrocious and he’ll have a huge size advantage over Jameer Nelson so he’ll continue to be a great value if Curry rests another game. If Curry happens to return then you can cross him off the list.

Secondary Plays

Andrew Bogut

He’s averaged about a fantasy point per minute this season and has seen a minutes bump with Festus Ezeli out. If Ezeli sits again then Bogut should see around 24 minutes against a weak Denver interior defense.

FD — $4,400– C
DK — $4,600 C
Min/Game —Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 25.0
FP/Game — Season: 20.7

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)