NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-01 18:16:02

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Orlando at Miami

Vegas Line – Miami -14, 201 Over/Under
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Vucevic
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh

Orlando

The Magic are 14 point underdogs tonight against the Heat in Miami. We’ve learned that potential blowout games in the NBA don’t have a huge impact on the favorites over the long run, but they do impact the fantasy value of the underdogs. The Magic are one of the worst road teams in the league and should have a tough time keeping this game close.

The Heat have been very solid defensively this season. They are holding their opponents to only 98.1 points per game which is the 7th lowest in the league. They are also ranked 14th of better in terms of fantasy points allowed to PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s. Victor Oladipo could be in play though, he has great upside every night that he takes the floor and the Magic should give him some good run even in a blowout.

Nikola Vucevic – The one position that the Heat have struggled to defend this season is the Center position. Vucevic knows that as well as anyone too. In 3 games against the Heat last season, Vucevic averaged 21 points and 21 rebounds. And that’s per game. Vucevic has really stepped up his game since coming back for injury and is the only Magic player that should be targeted in cash games.

Miami

The Heat are huge favorites tonight against this woeful Magic team. If there was ever a game to give Dwyane Wade some rest, this would be it. He hasn’t sat out any games for a while, but make sure to check his status closer to tip-off. The Magic are giving up 101.8 points per game this season and the Heat are projected to score well over 100 points tonight. The Magic have been very good at defending the Center position ever since Vucevic stepped back into the lineup, but are ranked 19th or worse against the other 4 positions on the floor.

LeBron James – This is a great matchup for LeBron, but I will likely only have limited exposure to him tonight. LeBron tends to coast when the Heat get up big and he lets the role players steal the show. That said, James has been on a tear over the last two weeks and should be considered the 2nd best overall option next to Kevin Love.

Washington at Philadelphia

Vegas Line – Washington -11, 213.5 Over/Under
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Wroten-Anderson-Young-Moultrie

Washington

The Wizards get to face the Sixers who are taking the word tank to a whole new level. This is a terrific matchup and the Wizards are the best team on the board to target. The Sixers are giving up the most points per game, they are the league’s fastest paced team, and they are ranked 29th or 30th against every position in terms of fantasy points allowed. All starters are in play tonight. Trevor Ariza should be in for a nice all-around game. Trevor Booker could be a nice sleeper pick, he should be able to get a lot of easy buckets down low.

John Wall – Wall has topped 35 FP’s in 6 of his last 7 games and should easily top that mark tonight against the Sixers. This game has some blowout potential, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wall have 40 FP’s by the end of the 3rd quarter. Wall has the highest usage rate on the Wizards and faces the league’s worst defense. It’s a perfect recipe for a huge game from Wall.

Marcin Gortat – Gortat is coming off of a career game against the Raptors the other night in what was a triple-OT victory for the Wizards. He has a terrific matchup against the Sixers who don’t even have an actual Center to put on the floor. Whether its Sims or Moultrie, Gortat should dominate both ends of the floor.

Bradley Beal – Beal is one of my favorite plays tonight because he often flies under the radar. His price is affordable across the industry and he has tremendous upside against this Sixers’ defense. Beal has been solid on the road too. Look for Beal to easily top 30 FP’s.

Philadelphia

The Sixers continue to tank and they are just counting down the days until the end of the season. While the trades have opened up minutes and production for a number of different players, I’m just not sure what to expect from the Sixers anymore. They have a tough matchup tonight against the Wizards who are ranked 12th or better against all positions except for SF. None of the Sixers stand out to me tonight, I don’t mind Michael Carter-Williams or Thaddeus Young, but both of their prices have increased dramatically and it’s going to be hard for them to cover their value.

Detroit at Houston

Vegas Line – Houston -11, 217 Over/Under
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard

Detroit

The Pistons and Rockets game is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night. The Pistons matchup is a good one. The Rockets are averaging 98 possessions per game, they are giving up 101.7 points per game, and they are ranked 19th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s. Andre Drummond should be avoided tonight, he has a tough matchup against Dwight who has really stepped up his play on the defensive end of the floor. Not only that, but Drummond has had a hard time staying out of foul trouble this season. Brandon Jennings is questionable for tonight’s game, if he has to sit, bump up both Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey.

Josh Smith – Smith is always a bit risky to use in cash games thanks to his inconsistent play, but I love his matchup tonight and this style of game fits him perfectly. Smith is at his best when he can be aggressive defensively and then get out and run in transition. He makes a solid play in both GPP’s and cash games.

Greg Monroe – The Rockets have been one of the worst teams at defending PF’s all season long. Terrence Jones has been good on the offensive end, but he has really struggled on the other end of the floor. Monroe has consistently topped 30 FP’s over the last few weeks and is very much in play tonight.

Houston

The Rockets have a very favorable matchup tonight against the Pistons who are giving up 103.5 points per game. The Pistons have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season and the Rockets have one of the best offenses in the league. They should have no problem hanging a big number on the Pistons tonight.

Looking at the DvP rankings of the Pistons, there aren’t any positions that we need to avoid. The Pistons are ranked 17th or worse against all 5 positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed this season. Dwight Howard has finally turned into a consistent fantasy option, he is the top Center on the board tonight.

James Harden – Harden has scored at least 42 FP’s in 5 of his last 6 games. He has a very nice matchup against Kyle Singler who has been awful defensively. The Pistons have really dropped in the DvP rankings ever since he was inserted into the starting lineup. Harden has great upside tonight.

Chandler Parsons – Parsons is a terrific cash game play tonight against the Pistons who have given up the 4th most FP’s to SF’s this season. Josh Smith can rack up blocks and steals, but he is a lazy defender and Parsons should get plenty of open looks from distance.

Indiana at Boston

Vegas Line – Indiana -7, 193 Over/Under
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Green-Wallace-Sullinger-Bass

Indiana

The Pacers and Celtics game features one of the lower totals tonight. Both of these teams play at a slower than average pace and both teams are better than average defensively. The Pacers are only 7 points favorites though and as long as this game stays close, there are a couple of Pacers’ players that warrant consideration. George Hill will sit out tonight’s game so look for C.J. Watson to get the start at PG. He makes a solid punt play at PG. Paul George may have out-priced himself tonight. He’s been on fire since the All-Star break and seems a bit overpriced in this matchup.

Lance Stephenson – Stephenson and George were almost the same price a couple of weeks ago and now Stephenson is considerably cheaper. I still think they have similar upside and I’ll take Stephenson with the discount. I like his matchup against Jerryd Bayless.

Roy Hibbert – Hibbert is coming off of a monster game against the Bucks and now faces another team that is a bit under-sized down low. Hibbert should have a nice game on the glass and should be able to get it going offensively against the C’s who are ranked 21st against Centers this season.

Boston

Even though the Pacers have struggled defensively in their last few games, they still own the league’s best defense and are still ranked 7th or better against all positions in terms of fantasy points allowed. Jared Sullinger is expected to be back in the lineup which ends the run for Kris Humphries as a value play. Rajon Rondo is the only Celtics’ player that I’m even considering, but I probably won’t have very much exposure to him in cash games. The rest of the C’s can be avoided.

Brooklyn at Milwaukee

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -6, 197 Over/Under
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia

Brooklyn

The Nets have had two games in a row where the starters saw very limited minutes. After getting crushed by the Blazers in Portland, they returned the favor a couple of nights later and blew the Nuggets out in Denver. Tonight they are facing a Bucks team that owns the worst record in the league. Kevin Garnett is going to sit out tonight’s game after experiencing some back spasms. Mason Plumlee will get the start in his place and Andray Blatche should also see a small fantasy boost off the bench. Deron Williams could have a nice game, but Knight is a solid defender and there are better options at his price point.

Paul Pierce – Pierce has a depressed price on most sites which really helps his fantasy value tonight. He also has a terrific matchup against Ilyasova and the Bucks who are ranked 25th at defending opposing PF’s. I think Pierce should be in for a nice night and I’m going out on a limb and predicting a 30 FP game out of him.

Milwaukee

The Bucks are facing a Nets team that is holding their opponents to under 100 points per game. While the Nets will be without their defensive anchor, I still don’t think this is a great matchup for the Bucks. Coach Drew continues to give limited minutes to John Henson which is extremely frustrating for us DFS players. Ersan Ilyasova is in play though, I like his height advantage that he will have over Paul Pierce.

Brandon Knight – Knight has a nice matchup against D-Will and the Nets who are ranked 23rd against PG’s over the last 15 days. Knight is the one Bucks player that you can count on to play 35+ minutes per game and he should play well in this favorable matchup.