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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 19th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2017-03-20 04:02:22

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Legend & FAQ

Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets – 12:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Brooklyn Nets
Article Image Vegas Total 208.5 Article Image Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 106.5 Team Total 102.0
Pace +/- 4.9 Pace +/- -4.9
Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Proj. Starter Jeremy Lin Randy Foye Caris LeVert Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 30 29 30 29 26 Adj. DvP 1 7 2 11 8
DRPM -0.21 -1.83 -1.16 0.93 0.17 DRPM -1.21 -0.19 0.55 -0.12 1.28

Dallas Mavericks

Hello, Grinders! Happy Sunday! I’ll be splitting the two pages up into sections today. Page 1 will cover the early slate, and Page 2 will cover the main slate. The purpose is to get you the most updated news possible. It makes no sense to write something three hours early and then have it be useless after shoot-around. Thing can still change for the early slate, but it’ll be locked. Let’s get right into it.

Dallas finishes up their four-game road trip today in Brooklyn. They are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Sixers and will look to put the hammer down on the Nets. Dirk Nowitzki was playing well before Friday’s game, and due to the poor showing, his salary decreased by $300 on FanDuel. His price fell $100 on DK, and he’ll be a strong option regardless of if he starts at center or power forward.

With Wesley Matthews returning and Nerlens Noel now healthy, it is possible the Mavs make a lineup change to spark something as they battle for that last spot in the playoffs. Yogi Ferrell will have to lose his spot, but Seth Curry is more than capable of playing point guard against Brooklyn. If Curry starts at point guard, he should be considered a lock-and-load in all formats. J.J. Barea has been eating into Ferrell’s time as well, and he’ll be a cheap sleeper option today. Barea scored 28 DK fantasy points against the Wizards in 20 minutes last week and has had a usage rate of 32 or more in three of his last five games since returning from injury. Harrison Barnes was starting to show promise of turning it around, but he’ll be a GPP option since he needs to log major minutes to reach value.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $4,700 $4,700 0.71 26.2 1.8 18.5 -0.8 21.5% -2.3% 30 -0.21
Seth Curry $5,300 $5,800 0.73 29.2 0.2 21.3 -4.5 20.2% -2.1% 29 -1.83
Wesley Matthews $4,500 $4,800 0.69 34.7 -7.3 23.8 -9.3 20.0% -0.9% 30 -1.16
Harrison Barnes $5,800 $6,200 0.82 35.9 -1.2 29.3 -3.4 24.7% -2.0% 29 0.93
Dirk Nowitzki $6,000 $6,300 0.99 26.6 0.1 26.3 -0.5 24.5% 0.2% 26 0.17
Nerlens Noel $5,900 $5,500 1.02 20.3 0.5 20.8 -0.5 18.2% 2.8% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Dirk Nowitzki, Seth Curry

Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes (GPP), Nerlens Noel (GPP)

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have won three of their last seven games and will look to take down Dallas this afternoon. Two of those victories, however, came against the terrible Knicks, and Brook Lopez has proven to be an elite cash game play. BroLo is only $6.6k on DK and should be considered a top option for this early slate. Jeremy Lin only played 21 minutes against Boston on the second night of a back-to-back and should be back around 30 minutes today, making him a strong play, particularly on DraftKings, where he’s priced down a bit. Trevor Booker has been out the last two games and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson was only able to take advantage in one game. He only played 16 minutes against Boston and was dealing with foul trouble for most of the game.

Randy Foye has played 26 minutes in three straight games for the first time since January, and he’s found his stroke over the last few games, even been putting up stats in other categories. He’s $3k on DraftKings and $3.6k on FanDuel. Quincy Acy saw 32 minutes against the Celtics for the first time all season and scored 25.1 FanDuel points. If Booker remains out, Acy is a strong GPP option, as well, as he’s priced at just $3.7k on both FanDuel and DraftKings. K.J. McDaniels has also been a part of the rotation but is playing under 20 minutes. He does not have elite GPP-winning upside, but if he crosses over 24 minutes, he’ll be a really nice play soon.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeremy Lin $6,000 $5,900 1.11 23.7 2.6 26.2 4.2 28.9% 0.0% 1 -1.21
Randy Foye $3,600 $3,000 0.58 18.8 4.7 11.0 2.5 16.4% -1.9% 7 -0.19
Caris LeVert $4,300 $4,100 0.73 21.0 3.3 15.4 5.2 16.3% -1.8% 2 0.55
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,500 $4,700 0.87 21.9 -0.1 19.2 2.2 18.6% 1.1% 11 -0.12
Brook Lopez $7,100 $6,600 1.09 29.6 0.2 32.3 2.2 28.0% 1.7% 8 1.28
Trevor Booker $5,100 $5,000 0.95 25.8 -2.7 24.6 -4.5 18.3% 6.1% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Brook Lopez, Jeremy Lin

Secondary Plays – Randy Foye (GPP), Quincy Acy (GPP)

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers – 1:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Philadelphia 76ers
Article Image Vegas Total 208.5 Article Image Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread -5.0 Vegas Spread 5.0
Team Total 106.8 Team Total 101.8
Pace +/- 2.2 Pace +/- 0.0
Proj. Starter Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot Robert Covington Dario Saric Jahlil Okafor
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 19 25 25 22 30 Adj. DvP 20 6 24 14 21
DRPM 0.12 -0.14 3.66 -1.16 -1.27 DRPM 0.51 -0.89 0.96 3.64 1.30

Boston Celtics

Isaiah Thomas has already been ruled out of today’s game against the Sixers, and Marcus Smart started Friday with Thomas out, playing 29 minutes with a 27 percent usage rate. He picked up three steals against Brooklyn and should continue to be a viable cash game play. I slightly prefer Lin at a similar price, but both players have a similar ceiling. Avery Bradley played 34 minutes against the Nets; it was the first time he’s played that many minutes since returning from injury. Look at Bradley as an elite play today, as well. Al Horford seems to have found his game recently, and we should jump on board here if you’re not plugging in Brook Lopez. Jae Crowder finally woke up on Friday and is also viable on this slate with Thomas out. He’ll have to deal with Robert Covington (3.66 DPRM), which makes him only useable in GPPs. Terry Rozier was used as the backup behind Smart, and he’ll likely go overlooked after not exceeding value on Friday against the Nets. With only three games on the early slate, you’ll need some cheap value to differentiate yourself. He’s not safe for cash games, but the ownership could be low enough that he turns into an elite GPP play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Marcus Smart $6,300 $6,100 0.79 30.6 -4.2 24.1 -2.1 20.5% 6.1% 19 0.12
Avery Bradley $6,500 $6,300 0.88 33.2 -3.1 29.1 -3.1 22.2% 1.5% 25 -0.14
Jae Crowder $6,100 $6,000 0.77 32.2 -1.9 24.9 -0.4 16.5% 0.1% 25 3.66
Amir Johnson $3,800 $3,900 0.82 19.9 2.0 16.4 -1.6 14.2% -1.4% 22 -1.16
Al Horford $6,900 $6,800 0.97 32.7 -1.6 31.8 1.2 21.6% -0.2% 30 -1.27
Terry Rozier $4,400 $3,600 0.74 17.6 -2.6 13.0 -2.5 17.8% 2.5% 19 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $3,900 $4,000 0.88 21.0 -1.0 18.4 1.9 19.1% 0.3% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Avery Bradley

Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder (GPP), Terry Rozier (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers

Rookie of the year frontrunner Dario Saric came down to earth against the Mavs. He only had to play 26 minutes after logging 35+ minutes for four straight games. Saric should be able to have his way with the Celtics’ weak interior defense. Robert Covington looks like he’ll also play 30+ minutes, and small forward is sorely lacking the secure floor options on this slate. Richaun Holmes started against the Mavs and played really well, but since it was a blowout, he was only needed for 20 minutes. Holmes will be a strong punt center on both sites if you need to pay down at the position. It’s pretty deep today, and a two-center tournament team could work on DraftKings. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has been logging major minutes but lacks elite upside. He’s still under $4k on both major sites and could be used at small forward on DraftKings. He’s a shooting guard on FanDuel, and I prefer Bradley, Booker, and Curry on this slate over him.
h3. Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,400 $5,300 0.82 25.5 3.2 21.0 3.8 19.1% -2.4% 20 0.51
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot $3,800 $3,700 0.57 13.5 12.8 7.7 9.9 16.8% -2.6% 6 -0.89
Robert Covington $7,100 $6,900 0.84 31.5 0.6 26.4 7.6 18.3% 0.2% 24 0.96
Dario Saric $7,800 $7,900 0.89 26.0 8.9 23.1 13.5 23.7% 2.8% 14 3.64
Jahlil Okafor $5,200 $5,100 0.90 23.1 1.2 20.9 6.0 23.3% 6.2% 21 1.30
Richaun Holmes $4,800 $5,200 0.97 17.9 4.4 17.3 9.7 17.5% 4.6% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Dario Saric, Richaun Holmes (if he starts)

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington (GPP), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (DK GPP)

Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons – 1:30 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Detroit Pistons
Article Image Vegas Total 213.5 Article Image Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 111.5
Pace +/- -1.8 Pace +/- 3.5
Proj. Starter Tyler Ulis Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Alex Len Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 4 21 12 4 Adj. DvP 26 19 16 24 25
DRPM -2.73 -0.33 0.75 -0.65 1.42 DRPM -0.92 -2.30 -2.75 -1.23 1.19

Phoenix Suns

The youth movement is on in Pheonix, and Tyler Ulis will be given ALL the minutes he can handle. Ulis played 40 minutes against Orlando with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight shut down for the season. Considering he’s played a heavy minutes load in consecutive games, we’ll have to look at this as a trend moving forward. FanDuel bumped his price to $6k, and DraftKings was even more aggressive, moving Ulis up to $6.5k. While he does not have elite upside any longer, he’s still a viable cash game play with a high floor due to the minutes. T.J. Warren has also been logging major minutes and has scored over 40 DraftKings fantasy points in three of his last five games. He’s under $7k on both sites, and small forward is lacking today, making him a strong GPP play. Smart is one of the Celtics’ better defenders, which makes Warren slightly risky. Devin Booker has been in a major slump, and he’ll be defended by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, making it hard to trust him, even though the minutes should be there.

Alan Williams also saw his minutes reduced with Alex Len playing 28 minutes as a starter. If Len can stay out of foul trouble today against Andre Drummond, he’s a viable GPP play. Considering the center position is packed with a ton of options, he’s not a building block entirely. While he could see 24+ minutes again tonight, he’s rarely been consistent. Marquese Chriss has also been playing well and could be worth a look. I’m concerned about the spread of this pace-down game for the Suns, meaning we should keep our exposure limited here.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tyler Ulis $6,000 $6,500 0.82 12.1 16.5 10.0 15.4 23.4% -2.3% 22 -2.73
Devin Booker $6,700 $7,300 0.83 34.7 1.9 28.9 2.7 27.6% 1.5% 4 -0.33
T.J. Warren $6,500 $6,900 0.78 30.0 6.9 23.3 11.4 18.4% 0.2% 21 0.75
Marquese Chriss $4,900 $5,400 0.80 20.0 6.4 16.0 10.8 18.3% -0.5% 12 -0.65
Alex Len $4,600 $4,200 0.92 19.6 3.0 18.0 4.7 16.7% 1.1% 4 1.42
Alan Williams $5,700 $6,100 1.18 13.2 11.1 15.6 11.9 20.2% 0.3% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – Tyler Ulis (cash), T.J. Warren (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Alan Williams (GPP), Alex Len (GPP) Marquese Chriss (GPP)

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons wrap up their homestand today against the Suns, and the Reggie Jackson / Ish Smith carousel continues to turn. I have no idea which player is going to play more. Using both is a viable strategy, but I like Jackson more due to his higher potential ceiling. Still, Ish Smith is in play against the Suns and could easily play more. Andre Drummond also bounced back against the Raptors on Friday and is viable on this slate. The position is just stocked with options, and Drummond is one of the most volatile plays available. Tobias Harris will start the remainder of the season but he’s struggled the last three games. I think he can bounce back against the Suns and is more expensive than Marcus Morris. It’ll be tough to trust Marcus Morris since his last strong game came over two weeks ago. The minutes have been there, but he seems to struggle even more with Harris in the starting lineup. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has also struggled with Harris in the starting lineup but is worth a shot in GPPs in a positive matchup against the Suns.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,600 $5,600 0.89 27.9 -1.9 24.8 -0.5 29.6% 2.4% 26 -0.92
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,600 $5,100 0.71 33.8 -2.9 23.9 -6.5 19.5% -1.4% 19 -2.30
Marcus Morris $5,600 $5,300 0.73 33.0 -1.3 24.1 -6.7 20.1% -2.4% 16 -2.75
Tobias Harris $5,800 $6,000 0.83 31.5 1.1 26.2 3.1 21.7% 0.0% 24 -1.23
Andre Drummond $7,900 $7,100 1.20 30.2 -0.5 36.2 -2.5 22.3% -3.3% 25 1.19

Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson / Ish Smith (GPP), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris (GPP), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (GPP)

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About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.