NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 5th

Jump to Page 1 2


Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks – 3:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Atlanta Hawks
Article Image Vegas Total 208.5 Article Image Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 102.8 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague C.J. Miles Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 17 20 27 6 6 Adj. DvP 18 17 22 24 5
DRPM -2.74 -0.77 2.80 3.59 2.46 DRPM -0.25 -0.57 -0.25 2.43 2.03

Indiana Pacers

Who likes early Sunday basketball? The NBA is taking advantage of the NFL not being around and tipping off at the usual time of kickoff. In the first game of the day, the Pacers travel to Atlanta to start a five-game week. They’ve been off since Wednesday and should be ready to go. We’ve reached the point in the season where we can lock in Jeff Teague, Paul George, and Myles Turner for 30+ minutes. Teague will be defended by Dennis Schroder (-2.74 DPRM) today and is probably the second-best point guard available on the slate. Teague scored 43.5 DraftKings points in 39 minutes against the Hawks earlier this season. Paul George rarely flashes elite upside and is simply a secondary play for the early slate. Myles Turner will have to deal with Dwight Howard, and for that reason, he can safely be avoided as well.

Thaddeus Young played only 11 minutes against the Spurs, and since his return from a wrist injury, his minutes have not been secure. Lavoy Allen and Kevin Seraphin are also getting burn, but both can be avoided against one of the best defenders at the power forward position in Paul Millsap (3.59 DPRM). Monta Ellis is a viable option, but I’d rather take a shot at C.J. Miles or the Atlanta wings. Miles is starting and is cheaper than Ellis, and considering it’s a two-game slate, we’ll need all the cheap value plays we can find. Al Jefferson is also available, but he was never a major part of the rotation.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,300 $7,100 1.02 32.6 -1.3 33.4 -4.9 26.2% -0.9% 17 -2.74
C.J. Miles $4,000 $3,800 0.72 23.1 0.9 16.7 1.8 17.3% -1.4% 20 -0.77
Paul George $8,000 $7,900 0.98 35.2 -4.4 34.7 -8.6 27.5% 0.9% 27 2.80
Thaddeus Young $5,000 $4,300 0.78 30.4 -8.8 23.8 -8.9 16.2% 0.7% 6 3.59
Myles Turner $6,400 $5,900 0.99 30.9 1.4 30.5 0.8 19.5% -2.1% 6 2.46
Monta Ellis $4,800 $4,200 0.65 27.1 0.6 17.6 3.4 17.8% 3.3% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, C.J. Miles

Secondary Plays – Paul George, Monta Ellis


Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks continue their home stand today after making a charge against the Cavs on Friday, when they were down big but fought back to get in the game. Paul Millsap is far too cheap and is really finding his groove lately, averaging 41.76 DraftKings points over his last three games. He’s also had success against Indiana, scoring 53.3 DraftKings points in about 36 minutes against the Pacers earlier this season. He remains affordable at DraftKings at just $7.2k. While he’s a little bit more expensive on FanDuel, you still shouldn’t have any trouble fitting him in. Dwight Howard also dominated the Pacers earlier this season with 23 points and 20 rebounds, making the two big men usable against Indiana. With center lacking a ton of elite options on FanDuel, Howard has the most upside available. You can slot in Kristaps Porzingis or Draymond Green over on DK, making Howard a secondary play. Honestly, I’d rather punt the position for the early slate and try to lock in as many high-usage guys as possible first.

Dennis Schroder did not play well against the Pacers earlier this season, but it’s worth noting that he only saw the court for 25 minutes. He should be in line for 32+ minutes here, making him a safe cash game play who is cheaper than Teague. Tim Hardaway Jr. had a huge performance against the Cavs but was slumping prior to that in his new bench role. As long as he’s coming off the bench, THJ is more of a GPP play. He’s especially in play on DraftKings, where his sub-$5k salary is somewhat appealing. Over on FanDuel, he’s $5.5k, and I’d look to him only if other value options after Klay Thompson did not make sense. Kent Bazemore also played well against the Cavs, and the Baze is simply a low-end play who will switch over to Paul George when THJ comes into the game. Thabo Sefolosha has played 31+ minutes in consecutive games but does not have the offensive game to really take advantage of the minutes. Still, he’s under $4k on both major sites and could be the value play we need for this slate. He scored 27.3 DraftKings points against the Celtics last week, so he’s not entirely useless, especially with the minutes being secure. Ersan Ilyasova has also played well in his limited time and his salary is all the way down to $4.1k on DraftKings. The Hawks signed Jose Calderon, and he could make his debut today, which would make Malcolm Delaney impossible to trust.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,400 $6,400 0.95 30.9 -0.2 29.2 0.3 29.8% -0.2% 18 -0.25
Kent Bazemore $4,600 $4,500 0.76 27.3 -3.3 20.7 -5.3 20.7% 1.5% 17 -0.57
Thabo Sefolosha $3,700 $3,900 0.71 25.6 -2.4 18.3 -2.0 13.9% -1.3% 22 -0.25
Paul Millsap $7,700 $7,200 1.04 34.0 -2.7 35.3 -7.8 24.7% 1.3% 24 2.43
Dwight Howard $7,800 $6,700 1.13 29.4 -2.2 33.1 -3.7 18.1% 1.0% 5 2.03
Tim Hardaway $5,500 $4,800 0.77 25.2 1.9 19.5 -2.9 22.5% -1.7% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard (FD)

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (DK), Thabo Sefolosha, Dennis Schroder, Tim Hardaway Jr, Kent Bazemore


Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks – 3:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors New York Knicks
Article Image Vegas Total 221.0 Article Image Vegas Total 221.0
Vegas Spread -9.5 Vegas Spread 9.5
Team Total 115.3 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- 0.5 Pace +/- 4.3
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Patrick McCaw Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Lance Thomas Kristaps Porzingis
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 8 21 26 20 27 Adj. DvP 16 12 23 13 16
DRPM -2.72 -1.00 -2.14 -1.50 1.66 DRPM -0.13 -0.61 -1.34 4.74 3.83

Golden State Warriors

Coming off consecutive losses to Washington and Chicago, the Warriors will continue their road trip today in New York. But this is still the Warriors, so don’t sleep on them. Stephen Curry has scored over 40 fantasy points in both games that Durant has missed (I’m counting the game against the Wizards as a missed game by Durant because he was injured basically in the first minute). Curry might be expensive, but I’d start with him and figure out the rest from there. Curry’s usage is a lock over 32 with Durant out, and it does not get much safer than him today. Klay Thompson is also coming off a poor game against the Bulls and should be used next to Curry. Hopefully, the box score watchers will stay off Klay and we can use both Splash Bros. in the Mecca. Draymond Green is also logging heavy minutes at both power forward and center, making all three Warriors extremely appealing. I’d rather take the discount with Paul Millsap and decide the rest of my lineup from there.

Zaza Pachulia has only played 20 minutes in one game since his return from injury and is a low-end play against the Knicks today. Patrick McCaw will likely continue to start and is still under $4k on both major sites. McCaw is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season and should be able to make value if he plays 24+ minutes. Matt Barnes and Andre Iguodala will also be available off the bench which makes McCaw simply that cheap GPP filler. Barnes played 11 minutes against the Bulls and should see his minutes continue to go up today. Iggy saw a slightly reduced role with Barnes available and lacks elite upside with McCaw and Barnes also being used at small forward. David West is the minimum salary on both major sites and is averaging 17.04 DraftKings points over his last five games. If you need a minimum priced player that could make salary-based expectations, West could be your man.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,500 $10,300 1.21 33.5 0.8 40.5 2.3 30.5% 4.7% 8 -2.72
Klay Thompson $7,000 $7,300 0.88 34.2 0.6 30.0 -4.5 24.2% 0.0% 21 -1.00
Patrick McCaw $3,800 $3,700 0.55 13.1 6.3 7.2 5.1 12.8% -2.6% 26 -2.14
Draymond Green $8,200 $8,200 1.08 32.8 -1.4 35.5 -2.8 18.9% 2.9% 20 -1.50
Zaza Pachulia $4,500 $4,100 0.97 18.6 -1.6 18.1 4.0 15.2% 4.4% 27 1.66
Andre Iguodala $4,800 $5,000 0.71 25.8 2.3 18.3 3.4 12.3% -0.1% 26 N/A
Matt Barnes $4,400 $3,600 0.73 25.1 -3.3 18.4 0.2 16.2% 2.2% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson

Secondary Plays – Draymond Green, David West, Patrick McCaw


New York Knicks

The Knicks will return home after catching an L in Philadelphia on Friday. Carmelo Anthony has been logging heavy minutes, but lacks he elite upside with both Derrick Rose and Kristaps Porzingis healthy. Porzingis got into foul trouble against the Sixers but still was able to play 31 minutes. He should be able to stay out of foul trouble today, but Paul Millsap is the power forward we want for cash games. KP6 is viable for GPPs since his salary is under $7k, and this game is expected have a more friendly environment. Willy Hernangomez missed the last two games due to an ankle injury but is expected to return to the starting lineup today (although Jeff Hornacek hates us and will likely not notify us if the HernanGOAT will start until much later in the day).

Lance Thomas is expected to see a smaller role with Hernangomez expected back. Thomas is coming off his best game of the season, but it took 42 minutes to get there; don’t look for Thomas to play 42 minutes again today. Courtney Lee has also been logging heavy minutes and is a viable GPP shooting guard play. Kyle O’Quinn is also too risky with Hernangomez expected back in the lineup. Derrick Rose played 38 minutes against the Sixers and, in my eyes, ranks behind Stephen Curry and Jeff Teague for the early slate. He should still be able to make salary-based expectations, but his upside looks limited with the Knicks relatively healthy. Ron Baker is being used as the backup point guard but does not play enough minutes to be considered.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,500 $6,300 0.88 32.4 3.4 28.6 1.8 27.6% -2.7% 16 -0.13
Courtney Lee $4,900 $4,900 0.61 31.5 3.7 19.1 6.4 14.3% 0.3% 12 -0.61
Carmelo Anthony $7,900 $7,800 1.04 34.3 4.3 35.7 0.9 29.8% 0.7% 23 -1.34
Lance Thomas $4,300 $4,000 0.50 19.1 9.6 9.6 8.5 13.0% -1.5% 13 4.74
Kristaps Porzingis $6,700 $6,900 0.98 32.7 -5.7 32.1 -6.9 23.4% 1.3% 16 3.83
Kyle O’Quinn $4,500 $4,700 1.16 15.5 2.2 18.0 4.1 19.4% -3.1% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, Willy Hernangomez (GPP), Courtney Lee.


Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.