NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-09 18:36:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Miami at Chicago

Vegas Line – Miami -4, 188.5 Over/Under
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah

Miami

Not only does this game start at 1:00 ET, but it’s daylight savings as well so those of you on the West Coast are going to have to be up bright and early for this one. Rise and Grind! The first game of the day is between the Heat and the Bulls. While there aren’t many rivalries left in the NBA, this one comes close. There is no love lost between these two teams.

This game is expected to be played at a fairly slow pace, but the Heat do own the league’s most efficient offense. What worries me here is the amount of possessions that the Heat will see. The Heat average around 94 possessions per game and the Bulls average around 93. That means that neither team is going to be pushing the tempo in this one. The Bulls are holding their opponents to 92.2 points per game which the is 2nd fewest in the NBA.

Looking at the DvP rankings, you will see a lot of numbers in the red. The Bulls are ranked 8th or better against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed this season. You may be tempted to take one of the Heat players from this game just so that you want to watch it, but I recommend avoiding all Heat players today. LeBron James is basically matchup proof, but he is around 18-22% of the salary cap which is just too much to spend in a bad matchup.

Chicago

The Bulls typically play the Heat tough and Vegas expects that to be the case again today. The Bulls are only 4 point underdogs against the defending champs. The total for this game is low though and the Heat have really been solid defensively in the month of play. The Heat are holding their opponents to 98.2 points per game while forcing over 16 turnovers in the process. This could be a tough matchup for Kirk Hinrich and I expect D.J. Augustin to see some extended minutes off the bench. He is better served as a tournament play though.

Looking at the DvP rankings of the Heat, we really want to avoid the PG and wing positions. The Heat are ranked 1st, 2nd, and 4th against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s this season. If you are targeting anyone against the Heat, it should be a big man. While Carlos Boozer is a bit too inconsistent for my taste, Joakim Noah looks like a great play.

Joakim Noah – Noah is dealing with a thumb injury, but he’s one of the tougher guys in the league and he is fully expected to play through it. Plus, the majority of Noah’s fantasy production comes from within 10 feet of the rim. The Heat are near the bottom of the league in all major rebounding statistics and Noah is averaging 13 boards against them this season. The Bulls’ offense has ran through Noah a lot lately too and we have seen an uptick in his assist numbers (averaging 6.7 per game since the All-Star Break).

Oklahoma City at L.A.Lakers

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -11.5, 230.5 Over/Under
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Jackson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Bazemore-Johnson-Gasol

Oklahoma City

The Thunder and Lakers game features the highest total that I can remember seeing all season. We’ve seen some totals that were in the high 220’s, but this one cracked the 230 point mark. The projected final score of this one is 121 to 109. While there is a great chance that this game could turn into a blowout, the Thunder players should have no problem reaching or even exceeding value today even in limited minutes. The Lakers have given up at least 132 points in each of their last 3 games.

The big three from the Thunder are all in play tonight, but I think you should probably limit yourself to only two of the three. Taking those three together equates to nearly 50% of your salary cap which is just too much tied up in one team, even in a terrific matchup.

Russell Westbrook – Westbrook has been extremely efficient in his last 5 games. During that stretch, he is averaging 24 points per game on only 12 shot attempts. And he’s doing that with less than 30 minutes of playing time per game. Westbrook is attacking the rim and finding his open teammates. He should be able to do both very easily tonight against this Lakers defense that can’t defend anyone at this point. One good point with Westbrook is that he will likely see around 30 minutes regardless of the outcome so a blowout won’t hurt his fantasy value at all.

Kevin Durant – In two games against the Lakers this season, KD is averaging 30 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals. He should be able to replicate those numbers as the Lakers defense has only gotten worse since the beginning of the season. KD is an easy pick today; take the league’s best scorer in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the year.

L.A.Lakers

The Lakers find themselves in an interesting position. If they can manage to keep this game close, there will be quite a few nice plays from the Lakers. However, if they get down big early, we can expect D’Antoni to clear his bench and give a ton of playing time to his scrubs. The hard part is choosing which end of the bench you want to target today.

The Thunder’s DvP rankings look a lot like a checker board. The positions that they have defended well in the season long ranking, they have struggled with over the last 15 days and vice versa. I look at most of the Lakers’ players as tournament options today. Kendall Marshall, Jordan Farmar, Jodie Meeks, Wesley Johnson, and Kent Bazemore all have nice upside, but they are all pretty risky picks.

Pau Gasol – Pau is going to play well tonight in this game, the only question is how many minutes he is going to see. If the Lakers can keep it close, he will likely play between 32-35 minutes. If the Lakers find themselves down by 25 in the third quarter, he will likely play around 25-28 minutes. Either way, I love his matchup against Steven Adams and I love that the offense is running through Pau.

Denver at New Orleans

Vegas Line – New Orleans -2, 215 Over/Under
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Ajinca

Denver

The Nuggets are 2-point underdogs in a game that features one of the highest totals on the schedule today. The Nuggets offense is really starting to click now that Ty Lawson is back in the lineup. They have averaged 125 points per game over their last 3. They have a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans who, over the last 15 days, are ranked 15th or worse against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Wilson Chandler has scored over 30 FP’s in 3 straight games and actually has a decent matchup now that Aminu is coming off of the bench. Evans is not nearly as good of a defender. Kenneth Faried has been on fire since the All-Star Break, but he has not been the same player on the road that he has been at home. Timofey Mozgov offers a decent punt option at Center, but with Hickson coming off of the bench right behind him, he’s not guaranteed more than 20 minutes.

Ty Lawson – Lawson has scored 56, 40, and 56 fantasy points in his three games since coming back from his rib injury. He draws a solid matchup against Roberts and the Pelicans who have given up the 5th most FP’s to PG’s over the last 15 days. Lawson may have out-priced himself on DS, but is in play on the other major DFS sites.

New Orleans

The Pelicans don’t typically play at a fast-pace, but now that Tyreke Evans is in the starting lineup, they have really started to attack the defense in transition. The Pelicans have a great matchup tonight against the Nuggets who are giving up 105.6 points per game which is the 3rd most in the NBA this season. This game has one of the highest totals of the night and this is the highest score that we have seen the Pelicans projected for in quite a while.

The Nuggets are ranked below average defensively against all five positions and are ranked 23rd or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers this season. Brian Roberts makes a nice punt option at PG. Eric Gordon has a nice matchup against Foye and could be a nice punt option as well.

Anthony Davis – Davis has scored over 50 fantasy points in back to back outings and appears to be completely over his shoulder injury. He should really play well against Faried and the Nuggets who have been one of the worst interior defenses this season.

Tyreke Evans – Even though Evans’ price tag has risen dramatically, he is still play on all sites across the board. Evans is averaging over 45 FP’s per game over his last four and makes a great play tonight against the Nuggets. Evans can do everything on the floor well and should stuff the stat sheet again tonight.

Detroit at Boston

Vegas Line – Boston -2, 204.5 Over/Under
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bayless-Green-Sullinger-Bass

Detroit

The Pistons have a pretty average matchup as a whole tonight. The Celtics play at a pace right around the league average and are giving up only 99 points per game which is ranked 10th in the NBA. The Celtics have been very stingy against the PG position and this may not be the best matchup for Brandon Jennings who doesn’t have great career numbers against Rajon Rondo. Josh Smith should also be avoided in cash games, he is back to his inconsistent self and Jeff Green is a very capable defender.

Andre Drummond – In his first two meetings against the Celtics, Drummond has averaged 14 points, 14 rebounds, and 2 blocks. He should have a nice height and length advantage over Sullinger, Olynyk, and Humphries. He should dominate the glass again tonight and is the safest pick of the Pistons’ players.

Boston

The Celtics have a great matchup tonight against the Pistons. The Pistons are giving up 103.6 points per game this season and are ranked 17th or worse against all positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. All five starters are in play tonight, but I’m not sure that we can trust any of the Celtics bigs. They have an inconsistent rotation and Coach Stevens often goes with the hot hand. Jerryd Bayless makes a great punt play at SG. With Bradley and Wallace both out, he should see around 30-35 minutes again tonight.

Rajon Rondo – Rondo should be targeted in all leagues tonight. The Pistons have not defended the PG position well this season and Rondo should have another solid all-around game. His price is very affordable across the board and he should have no problem posting a big stat line against Jennings.

Sacramento at Brooklyn

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -7, 203 Over/Under
Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Plumlee

Sacramento

The Kings draw a tough matchup tonight against the Nets. The Nets play at a below average pace (averaging only 94 possessions per game) and are ranked 11th in the league in points allowed per game (99.1). The Nets are ranked 10th or better against PG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers. While DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, and Isaiah Thomas are all very capable fantasy options, I’m not sure that you want to target them tonight against the Nets.

Brooklyn

The Nets are 7 point favorites tonight at home against the uptempo Kings who are giving up 103.8 points per game to their opponents this season. The Kings have defended the Center position well this season, but are ranked 21st or worse against the other four positions on the floor. That said, the Nets are a tough team to predict on a nightly basis. Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce are shells of their former selves.

Deron Williams – Williams is averaging over 30 FP’s per game in his last 3 and has a very nice matchup tonight against IT2. As long as this game stays close, D-Will should be in for a solid fantasy performance. In his last 8 games against the Kings, D-Will is averaging well over 35 FP’s per game.