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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, April 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-08 02:33:31

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Atlanta Hawks
torontonba Vegas Total 199.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 199.5
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 96.3 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 7 19 12 12 23 Opp. Season 3 14 7 5 8
Last 3 Weeks 20 23 11 9 19 Last 3 Weeks 5 21 26 11 1

Toronto Raptors

Record: 52-25 — Road: 22-16 — Last 10: 6-4

The Raptors are two games behind the Cavaliers in the loss column with only a few games to go. They are all but locked into the two seed in the Eastern Conference, which is why we have seen them rest a starter every now and then. Tonight’s game against the Hawks means a lot more to Atlanta than it does to Toronto. The Raptors are listed as 7-point underdogs with a low team total of 96.3 points. They have the second worst projected point differential of any team on the schedule tonight. Even if Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan play tonight, they could see limited minutes. Health is the Raptors’ key priority heading into the postseason.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jonas Valanciunas
jonas-valanciunas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$5,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.2 28.5 2.3 30.1 3.9
FPPG (FD) 27.0 31.9 4.9 31.0 4.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 17.0 0.2 15.5 -1.4

I’m not too interested in Kyle Lowry or DeMar DeRozan tonight, but Valanciunas is an interesting tournament play. The best players to target against the Hawks this season have been elite rebounders, as Atlanta has the third worst rebounding differential on the season. Valanciunas played well in their last meeting, scoring 30.8 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action.

Norman Powell
norman-powell-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,100 Salary:$3,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 12.4 26.8 14.4 27.7 15.3
FPPG (FD) 8.7 18.5 9.8 22.4 13.7
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 13.8 -1.3 14.0 -1.0

Powell has really made the most of his opportunity to start while DeMarre Carroll has been out. Over his last five games, he is averaging 22.4 fantasy points in just over 27 minutes per contest. The NBA has been littered with value over the last couple of weeks, but that isn’t the case tonight. Powell is one of the safest punt plays on the board.

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 46-32 — Home: 25-14 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hawks are one of four teams bunched up in the Eastern Conference standings. They are currently tied and they hold a half and one game lead over the Heat and Hornets. This game is critical for Atlanta, as they could potentially drop all the way down to the sixth seed. The Hawks are 7-point favorites tonight with an implied team total of 103.3 points. Look for a tightened rotation from Atlanta with their starters seeing big minutes. Even though the matchup against the Raptors is less than appealing, the Hawks are one of the few teams with something to play for tonight. I originally had Al Horford listed here, but if you are paying up for a center, Pau Gasol or Karl-Anthony Towns.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$8,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.14 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 32.2 -0.4 33.0 0.4
FPPG (FD) 37.1 40.2 3.1 46.1 9.0
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 18.3 -1.6 18.6 -1.3

We generally don’t like to target bigs against the Raptors, but I expect Millsap to play 35+ minutes tonight in an important game for the Hawks. Millsap has been on an absolute tear over his last five games, averaging 46.1 fantasy points per contest. The one concern is his track record in this matchup – he has scored 32, 26, and 25 fantasy points in his last three meetings with Toronto.

Secondary Plays

Jeff Teague
jeff-teague-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 29.5 1.0 30.7 2.2
FPPG (FD) 27.9 31.2 3.3 36.6 8.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.4 25.7 3.3 27.2 4.8

Teague continues to fly under the radar, despite averaging over 30 minutes and over 30 fantasy points in his last ten games. With the Hawks tightening their rotation, he has really become a viable fantasy option over the last couple of weeks. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play tonight is his matchup against Kyle Lowry.

Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM

Phoenix Suns Houston Rockets
phoenixnba Vegas Total 213.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd -12.0
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 112.8
Team Pace 100.60 Team Pace 100.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ronnie Price Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Alex Len Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 13 22 30 29 19 Opp. Season 29 29 27 15 14
Last 3 Weeks 22 17 28 7 26 Last 3 Weeks 19 8 22 21 24

Phoenix Suns

Record: 20-58 — Road: 7-32 — Last 10: 2-8

The Suns have lost eight of their last ten games, but have been one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. Their starters have been seeing huge minutes and they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, which bring a lot of players into consideration against them. The Suns are 12-point underdogs tonight against the Rockets, who are coming off of a devastating loss last night. If this game stays close, it will be the second best game to target for fantasy production. Brandon Knight has been ruled out for the season, while Jon Leuer is listed as doubtful for tonight.

Elite Plays

Devin Booker
devin-booker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$7,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.4 37.3 9.9 39.0 11.6
FPPG (FD) 19.6 32.5 12.9 30.5 10.9
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 24.2 5.2 23.2 4.3

As I mentioned in the Grind Down the other night, there are very few players that we can basically pencil in to play 38-40 minutes and take 15-20 shots. Booker is one of those players and at this point, he is a tough fade in cash games. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 32.5 fantasy points in 37.3 minutes per contest.

Mirza Teletovic
mirza-teletovic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$5,000
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.8 27.1 6.3 29.1 8.3
FPPG (FD) 17.8 26.1 8.2 30.4 12.6
TO-Adj. Usage 19.6 22.3 2.7 25.3 5.7

With Jon Leuer doubtful, Teletovic becomes an elite play. He has seen a major boost in usage, minutes, and fantasy production over his last five games. His shot volume has been off the charts recently as well. His price is still affordable across the industry and we should take advantage of the fact that many people have a mental block with targeting players that come off the bench.

P.J. Tucker
p.j.-tucker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.65 FP/Min:0.69
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.9 35.2 4.3 34.5 3.6
FPPG (FD) 20.0 26.7 6.8 26.6 6.7
TO-Adj. Usage 10.5 12.7 2.3 14.2 3.7

Tucker is always a difficult player to predict, but with all of the injuries to the Suns, we can expect him to play 35+ minutes in an uptempo game against the Rockets. Given the lack of other options at small forward, I have Tucker listed as an elite play tonight.

Secondary Plays

Alex Len
alex-len-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,600
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.8 30.9 8.1 34.0 11.2
FPPG (FD) 20.5 21.7 1.1 23.9 3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 15.1 -1.2 13.6 -2.8

Len has been a little too inconsistent for my liking. I’d rather take the cheaper route with Mirza Teletovic. However, if you are looking to differentiate your lineup in a GPP, we have seen the type of upside that Len provides. He draws a great matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 29th against power forwards this season.

Tyson Chandler
tyson-chandler-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,400 Salary:$5,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.3 30.2 5.9 33.1 8.8
FPPG (FD) 19.6 27.9 8.2 29.9 10.2
TO-Adj. Usage 9.6 10.4 0.8 10.3 0.7

Dollar for dollar, I slightly prefer Chandler over Alex Len. He is considerably cheaper and he has actually outproduced him over the last five games. The Rockets have not fared well against centers recently and Chandler could see a minutes boost tonight since he will be asked to defend Dwight Howard.

Ronnie Price
ronnie-price-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,600 Salary:$3,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.62 FP/Min:0.71
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.9 23.1 4.2 27.9 9.0
FPPG (FD) 11.8 14.9 3.1 18.2 6.4
TO-Adj. Usage 11.8 13.0 1.2 13.3 1.5

As I mentioned earlier, there is little value in tonight’s five game slate. Price is one of the best punt plays on the board. With Brandon Knight out for the season, he should see big minutes the rest of the way. I don’t love his matchup against Patrick Beverley, but you have to expect him to pay off his very cheap salary.

Houston Rockets

Record: 38-40 — Home: 21-17 — Last 10: 4-6

The Rockets had a chance to move into a three-way tie for seventh place last night, but they fell just short to the Mavericks. They now have an uphill climb to make the playoffs, but are still only a game behind the Jazz. Tonight’s contest against the Suns is a must-win game for the Rockets. Even though they are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back, we can expect big minutes from their starters again tonight. Houston is projected to score 112.8 points, which gives them the second highest team total and the highest projected point differential on the board.

Elite Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,900 Salary:$11,100
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.37
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 38.1 41.7 3.6 43.0 4.9
FPPG (FD) 47.5 52.5 5.0 52.1 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 27.3 25.8 -1.5 26.2 -1.2

Harden was a bit of a disappointment last night, but once again, he is a must play in cash games. His ownership should be through the roof and he is facing a Suns’ defense that is ranked 29th against shooting guards this season. The Rockets absolutely have to have a win tonight and if the game stays relatively g

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza
trevor-ariza-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.75
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.4 38.1 2.7 39.0 3.6
FPPG (FD) 24.7 24.1 -0.6 23.3 -1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 13.6 13.6 -0.1 13.1 -0.5

After James Harden, the Rockets have been a difficult team to predict recently. Dwight Howard has been all over the map and is basically a GPP play at this point. Ariza is worth a look in all league formats, as he should benefit from an uptempo game against the Suns. He should get plenty of open looks beyond the three-point line.

Patrick Beverley
patrick-beverley-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 32.3 3.8 31.5 3.0
FPPG (FD) 20.6 23.9 3.3 26.1 5.4
TO-Adj. Usage 13.7 13.9 0.2 15.5 1.8

Beverley has played well over his last five games, averaging 26.1 fantasy points in just over 31 minutes per contest. He draws an excellent matchup tonight against the Suns, who have one of the worst defensive frontcourts in the entire NBA. Beverley is a solid play if you need a point guard target in that mid range.

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM

Chicago Bulls Miami Heat
chicagonba Vegas Total 203.5 miaminba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 99.0 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 98.40 Team Pace 95.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Bobby Portis Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire
Opp. Season 2 4 15 4 7 Opp. Season 27 15 25 26 21
Last 3 Weeks 6 11 8 2 16 Last 3 Weeks 15 10 19 24 7

Chicago Bulls

Record: 39-39 — Road: 15-24 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bulls’ chances of making the playoffs is diminishing, but they can pull within two games of the Pistons if they win tonight. They also face Detroit one more time this season, so they could basically pull within one and then each team would have two more games to play. A win tonight against the Heat is a necessity, though. The Bulls are listed as 5.5-point underdogs with an implied team total of only 99 points. While I like the fact that the Bulls need a win, they have the second lowest team total on the board. The Heat have one of the best defenses in the entire NBA.

Elite Plays

Pau Gasol
pau-gasol-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$7,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.22 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.9 30.3 -1.6 33.4 1.5
FPPG (FD) 38.8 35.3 -3.5 37.4 -1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 21.4 19.9 -1.5 19.7 -1.7

Even though the Heat have been one of the top defenses against centers this season, Gasol is still an excellent play tonight. He should see 35+ minutes of action and post another strong all-around outing. With Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler hobbled, Gasol has taken on a bigger role in this offense. As mentioned above, the Bulls are basically eliminated from playoff contention if they lose tonight.

Secondary Plays

Jimmy Butler
jimmy-butler-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.2 36.2 -1.0 37.4 0.2
FPPG (FD) 37.3 35.3 -2.0 40.0 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 21.7 18.2 -3.5 18.3 -3.4

Outside of Pau Gasol, Butler is the only other player that I am looking at on the Bulls tonight. This is a bad matchup for both Derrick Rose and Nikola Mirotic. Butler has flashed some upside recently and while his matchup against the Heat isn’t great, he should play all of the minutes that he can handle in this must-win game.

Miami Heat

Record: 45-32 — Home: 26-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat still have a lot to play for, as they are one of the four teams in the Eastern Conference that is in that log jam that I mentioned earlier. They could potentially move up to the three seed or fall all the way back to the six seed. They are listed as 5.5-point favorites tonight against the Bulls, who have struggled defensively in the second half of the season. The Heat are projected to score 104.5 points, which gives them the fifth highest team total and the fourth highest projected point differential. The situation to monitor here is the status of Hassan Whiteside. He is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is ruled out, Luol Deng would become an elite play.

Elite Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 33.2 0.3 34.0 1.1
FPPG (FD) 26.9 30.0 3.1 28.1 1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 18.6 21.1 2.5 20.7 2.2

Dragic has played well over his last ten games, averaging 30 fantasy points in just over 33 minutes per contest. He draws one of the best matchups that a point guard can have, as the Bulls have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to point guard this season. Dragic is a safe play in cash games with some decent upside as well.

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,500 Salary:$6,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 29.4 -1.2 31.6 1.0
FPPG (FD) 31.8 32.7 0.9 38.9 7.1
TO-Adj. Usage 26.9 26.1 -0.8 26.0 -0.9

I always like targeting Wade in games that the Heat need to win and in games that feature single digit spreads. He will draw the defense of Jimmy Butler, which isn’t ideal, but Wade is still a strong play here. He has an elite usage rate and the Bulls defense really struggles as a whole.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves Sacramento Kings
minnesotanba Vegas Total 221.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 221.5
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 108.5 Team Proj. 113.0
Team Pace 97.40 Team Pace 102.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Seth Curry Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Willie Cauley-Stein
Opp. Season 22 30 23 30 20 Opp. Season 26 21 16 10 6
Last 3 Weeks 14 25 15 20 29 Last 3 Weeks 24 24 2 18 4

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 26-52 — Road: 13-26 — Last 10: 4-6

The Wolves and Kings don’t have anything to play for, but they also don’t have a reason to limit their starter’s minutes either. It’s not like they are going to save them for the postseason. The Wolves are 4.5-point underdogs tonight with an implied team total of 108.5 points. They currently have the second highest projected point differential at +6.7. This is honestly a game that you could fill out an entire lineup with and likely put up a competitive score. Shabazz Muhammad is a decent punt play here, although many people will be chasing his 41 fantasy point outing against the Warriors the other night.

Elite Plays

Andrew Wiggins
andrew-wiggins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$6,500
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.2 37.6 2.4 36.3 1.1
FPPG (FD) 28.7 32.5 3.8 34.2 5.5
TO-Adj. Usage 22.7 21.2 -1.5 22.8 0.1

Wiggins has really played well over his last five games, averaging just over 34 fantasy points per contest. There was a stretch there where he and Zach LaVine were producing at similar levels, but that has changed in the last couple of weeks. Wiggins is an elite play in all formats tonight against the Kings.

Ricky Rubio
ricky-rubio-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.8 32.2 1.4 31.1 0.3
FPPG (FD) 30.7 30.4 -0.3 25.4 -5.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.6 16.6 0.0 16.0 -0.5

Rubio is my favorite point guard target in this slate and I expect him to be the chalk play at the position. He has shown great upside in favorable matchups this season and his recent slide has caused his price to come down across the industry. He should have a monster game against Rajon Rondo and the Kings, who are ranked 22nd against point guards.

Secondary Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns
karl-anthony-towns-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.9 37.5 5.6 37.2 5.3
FPPG (FD) 36.2 42.4 6.3 41.0 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 21.0 0.8 20.2 0.0

Towns hasn’t played very well against the Kings this season, but he is going to be on my radar any time that we can project him to play 35+ minutes. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he makes a great tournament play on a night where his ownership will be down.

Zach LaVine
zach-lavine-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,400 Salary:$5,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.8 36.6 8.8 33.4 5.6
FPPG (FD) 21.9 21.4 -0.5 17.2 -4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 20.0 15.1 -4.9 13.7 -6.3

LaVine has taken a backseat in the Wolves’ offense recently and it has shown in his fantasy production. Over his last five games, he is only averaging 17.2 fantasy points. The upside is always there with a matchup against the Kings, but he is my fourth favorite target tonight on the Wolves.

Sacramento Kings

Record: 31-47 — Home: 17-22 — Last 10: 5-5

The Kings have nothing to play for at this point, but they also have no reason to limit their starters. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency this season. The Kings are projected to score 113 points tonight, which gives them the highest team total and the third highest projected point differential on the board.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins
demarcus-cousins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,700 Salary:$10,500
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:1.39 FP/Min:1.51
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 33.2 -1.3 35.4 0.9
FPPG (FD) 48.0 49.4 1.4 53.2 5.2
TO-Adj. Usage 29.0 26.1 -2.9 26.8 -2.1

Cousins is right there with James Harden as the top overall play on the board tonight. He has incredible upside tonight and he should be the main feature in the Kings’ offense. It may be tough fitting both Cousins and Harden in the same lineup, but hopefully some value will open up so that it is a little easier.

Rajon Rondo
rajon-rondo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$8,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 33.2 -1.9 34.7 -0.4
FPPG (FD) 36.5 34.7 -1.8 40.5 4.0
TO-Adj. Usage 17.0 16.3 -0.7 18.8 1.7

Rondo is coming off of a monster game the other night. After looking like he didn’t care much there for a while, he is finishing the season strong. I see him as an GPP play and a borderline cash game target tonight, but the matchup is certainly in his favor. On the season, the Wolves are ranked 26th against point guards.

Willie Cauley-Stein
willie-cauley-stein-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,900
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.6 26.1 5.5 30.2 9.6
FPPG (FD) 16.5 22.4 5.9 24.3 7.8
TO-Adj. Usage 10.9 14.5 3.6 12.1 1.2

As long as WCS draws the start, he will likely find his way into my lineup tonight. Value is tough to find and he stands out like a sore thumb. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last seven games and the Kings have no reason not to give him major minutes the rest of the season.

Secondary Plays

Seth Curry
seth-curry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$3,900
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.67 FP/Min:0.77
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 13.4 27.1 13.7 28.2 14.8
FPPG (FD) 9.0 22.6 13.6 23.6 14.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 16.9 2.7 17.2 3.0

Curry is a decent punt play tonight, especially if he draws another start at shooting guard. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 22.6 fantasy points in just over 27 minutes per contest. Curry could potentially play 30+ minutes tonight at home.

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

San Antonio Spurs Golden State Warriors
sanantonionba Vegas Total 209.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 95.90 Team Pace 101.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 25 10 13 16 21 Opp. Season 4 1 1 2 2
Last 3 Weeks 12 4 17 29 15 Last 3 Weeks 11 13 5 3 2

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 65-12 — Road: 26-12 — Last 10: 8-2

There isn’t anything at stake tonight for either team in terms of seeding, but it will be interesting to see how these teams approach this game – mainly the Spurs. They want to finish off their undefeated season at home, but they don’t have a ton of interest in winning tonight’s game in Golden State. We have seen it time and time again with the Spurs; they tend to rest or limit players in games where they don’t have to put forth a complete effort. Hopefully we will get an update on what Popovich is planning to do tonight. The Spurs are 7-point underdogs here and while the Warriors haven’t been blowing teams out recently, I just can’t trust any of the Spurs tonight.

Elite Plays

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Secondary Plays

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Golden State Warriors

Record: 69-9 — Home: 37-2 — Last 10: 7-3

The Warriors have lost back-to-back home games, after winning their first 37 this season. They now have nine losses on the season and now need to win out to break the Bulls record of 72 wins. With the Spurs potentially resting players, I expect the Warriors to pick up a win tonight. They are 7-point favorites, but they do have the lowest projected point differential on the board at -7.3. This is a game that lacks fantasy appeal, as we don’t know what the Spurs’ plans are and the Warriors are facing a very tough defense. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are intriguing GPP plays, but they can be avoided in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious