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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-19 16:10:39

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Charlotte Hornets
torontonba Vegas Total 195.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 97.3
Team Pace 96.10 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Terrence Ross Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Kemba Walker P.J. Hairston Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 6 13 9 28 21 Opp. Season 2 21 8 11 16
Opp. Last 7 28 21 17 18 11 Opp. Last 7 1 9 20 5 21

Toronto Raptors

Record: 16-10 — Road: 8-6 — Last 10: 6-4

The Raptors have won six of their last ten games and currently sport an impressive 8-6 record on the road. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on a Hornets’ team that is coming off of a blowout loss to the Magic last night. Vegas is expecting this to be a close game, as the spread is only set at one point. The Raptors have an implied team total of 98.3 points, which is slightly lower than their average points scored per game this season.

The Hornets have been an above-average defense this season. They are ranked 13th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll are both expected to miss tonight’s game, which means Bismack Biyombo and Terrence Ross will both be in the starting lineup.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

Lowry comes into tonight’s game in less than stellar form, averaging 32.8 fantasy points per game in his last five. He also draws a difficult matchup against the Hornets, who have been tough on point guards this season. Even with everything working against him, he is still an elite play on a night that features only three games. He should be able to bounce back in what is expected to be a close game in Charlotte.

FD — $8,900 — PG
DK — $8,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 35.9
FP/Game — Season: 39.2 | Last Five Games: 32.8

DeMar DeRozan

DeRozan is going to be a popular play tonight at shooting guard (which will be a common theme on a night with only three games). He has averaged 35.7 fantasy points per game in his last five and he draws a decent matchup against P.J. Hairston. Nicolas Batum will likely spend some time defending DeRozan as well, but that’s not enough of a reason to fade him tonight.

FD — $7,700 — SG
DK — $7,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 23.4
Min/Game — Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 35.7
FP/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 35.7

Secondary Plays

Cory Joseph

Joseph has been quiet recently, but his minutes continue to trend upward with DeMarre Carroll out. Over his last five games, he has averaged 30.2 minutes per contest. Dollar for dollar, he is one of my favorite value plays on the board tonight. If he sees 30 minutes again tonight, he should be able to reach value with ease.

FD — $4,500 — PG
DK — $4,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.7 | Last Five Games: 14.5
Min/Game — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 18.2 | Last Five Games: 17.6

Luis Scola

Scola has been a boom or bust player recently, with his fantasy production ranging from seven to 31 fantasy points in his last five games. He offers decent value at power forward tonight against a Hornets’ frontcourt that is missing Al Jefferson.

FD — $4,500 — PF
DK — $5,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 17.0
Min/Game — Season: 23.5 | Last Five Games: 25.1
FP/Game — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 20.4

Bismack Biyombo

Biyombo is a nice punt option at center, although I would like him a bit more if Al Jefferson was playing. With Cody Zeller starting at center, we could see these teams play a little smaller tonight. Biyombo does have the revenge narrative going for him though, as he is facing his former team.

FD — $4,000 — C
DK — $4,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 8.8 | Last Five Games: 9.8
Min/Game — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 29.4
FP/Game — Season: 16.5 | Last Five Games: 23.0

Terrence Ross

Ross hasn’t been incredibly efficient in his starts, but he has averaged 31.2 minutes per game with DeMarre Carroll out. Anytime a player that is priced under $4,000 sees that type of minutes, we need to at least take note.

FD — $3,600 — SG
DK — $3,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 8.8 | Last Five Games: 17.2

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 14-10 — Home: 10-4 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hornets forgot to show up last night in Orlando, but have a good chance to bounce back tonight against the Raptors. The Hornets are listed as 1-point underdogs with their team total set at 97.3 points. Their total is 5.3 points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

The Raptors have quietly become a top ten defense in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked 12th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Al Jefferson will serve the second of his five-game suspension tonight. Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams will continue to benefit in his absence. Nicolas Batum is listed as questionable tonight, after he left last night’s game in the third quarter with an illness.

Elite Plays

Cody Zeller

Zeller is a little overpriced on DraftKings, but is an elite value play on FanDuel. He has seen a nice bump in minutes with Al Jefferson out and he has averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game over his last five. Assuming tonight’s game stays close, he should see minutes in the upper 20’s.

FD — $3,900 — PF
DK — $4,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 14.7
Min/Game — Season: 22.1 | Last Five Games: 24.9
FP/Game — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 20.2

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

There was a lot of love for Walker last night, but I didn’t love the spot on the road against a tough Magic defense. He draws another tough matchup tonight against Kyle Lowry and the Raptors. With all of the value at point guard, Walker is more of a secondary play tonight.

FD — $7,900 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 30.5
FP/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 34.5

Marvin Williams

Given their price difference, I prefer Zeller over Williams tonight. They have been producing at a similar level and Zeller is considerably cheaper. The masses will likely employ the same strategy though, which could make Williams an interesting tournament play.

FD — $4,800 — PF
DK — $5,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.0 | Last Five Games: 12.3
Min/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 27.3
FP/Game — Season: 23.0 | Last Five Games: 20.3

Jeremy Lin

In contrast to Cody Zeller, Lin is actually priced much better on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel. His minutes have been up recently, as he has averaged 21.2 fantasy points in 26.9 minutes per game in his last five outings. He is a viable punt play at point guard.

FD — $4,700 — PG
DK — $4,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.5 | Last Five Games: 17.0
Min/Game — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 26.9
FP/Game — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 21.2

Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Cleveland Cavaliers
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 205.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 99.10 Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Matthew Dellavedova J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 11 18 3 1 3 Opp. Season 18 11 6 8 5
Opp. Last 7 5 11 7 1 3 Opp. Last 7 17 16 10 2 4

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 17-8 — Road: 5-5 — Last 10: 8-2

The Thunder have won eight of their last ten games and are now 17-8 on the season. They have not only been winning games, but they have been blowing teams out left and right. Luckily, tonight’s game against the Cavaliers is expected to stay close. The Thunder are listed as 3-point underdogs in Cleveland. Their team total is set at only 101 points, which is 6.6 points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

The Cavaliers have a truly elite defense. They aren’t quite as good as the Spurs, but they aren’t too far behind. On the season, they are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Even though the Thunder have a difficult matchup, we can at least project their starters – namely Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook – to see at or above their usual complement of minutes.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

Matthew Dellavedova is a feisty defender and he may be able to draw a charge against Westbrook, but it’s hard to imagine shutting him down tonight. Westbrook is my second favorite play overall (next to James Harden), as the Cavaliers don’t have anyone that can match up against him other than LeBron James. And based on past meetings, James will defend Kevin Durant before he will defend Westbrook.

FD — $10,800 — PG
DK — $10,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 26.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 49.2 | Last Five Games: 43.8

Secondary Plays

Kevin Durant

Durant is more of a secondary play by default. As mentioned above, I like the matchup more for Russell Westbrook. If I’m going to spend up at small forward, I’d rather use LeBron James so that I don’t cap my upside by targeting two superstars from the same team.

FD — $10,300 — SF
DK — $10,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.7 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 44.6 | Last Five Games: 46.0

Serge Ibaka

Ibaka’s price continues to come down, but with a healthy Kevin Durant, there just aren’t that many shots to go around. He still brings a lot to the table on the glass and on defense, but it’s hard to rely on him to score more than ten points a game. He’s still worth a look tonight though, as he may also see a few extra minutes in a close game against the Cavaliers.

FD — $6,200 — PF
DK — $6,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 31.9
FP/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 26.8

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 16-7 — Home: 10-1 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers have won six of their last ten games and have an impressive 10-1 record at home. They are 3-point favorites tonight against the Thunder in what should be a pace-up game for Cleveland. They have an implied team total 104 points tonight, which is the second highest on the board and 2.5 points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

The Thunder aren’t quite as stout as the Cavaliers on the defensive end of the floor, but they certainly aren’t too shabby. On the season, they are ranked 14th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. It was reported that Kyrie Irving would make his return to the lineup tonight, but apparently that’s not the case. His return will happen soon, but it won’t be tonight against the Thunder. Iman Shumpert will join him on the bench, as he is dealing with a groin strain. Mo Williams is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Elite Plays

LeBron James

With Kyrie Irving, Iman Shumpert, and possibly Mo Williams out, James is going to have to carry the load offensively again tonight. He has taken over games this season and we could see that again in a tough matchup against the Thunder. James has averaged 49.2 fantasy points per game over his last five outings and could see close to 40 minutes tonight.

FD — $10,300 — SF
DK — $9,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 29.4
Min/Game — Season: 36.7 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 43.6 | Last Five Games: 49.2

J.R. Smith

With Iman Shumpert out tonight, Smith should go back to seeing 35+ minutes of action. His matchup against the Thunder isn’t the best on the board, but his price is down and he offers nice upside at shooting guard.

FD — $5,100 — SG
DK — $4,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.8 | Last Five Games: 15.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 18.4

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love

Love is coming off of a big game against the Celtics, but I’m not as high on him tonight. He draws a tough matchup against Serge Ibaka. Even though his price has come down across the industry, I see him as a secondary play tonight at power forward.

FD — $8,200 — PF
DK — $8,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 31.9

Matthew Dellavedova

Kyrie Irving is out, Iman Shumpert is out, and Mo Williams is questionable. The Cavaliers may have to play Dellavedova 35+ minutes tonight at home. There is a chance that he could get into foul trouble against Russell Westbrook, but he offers nice value at point guard.

FD — $4,200 — PG
DK — $4,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.5 | Last Five Games: 12.8
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 18.4

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Houston Rockets Los Angeles Lakers
houstonnba Vegas Total 213.5 lalakersnba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 109.8 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 100.60 Team Pace 98.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Jordan Clarkson Louis Williams Kobe Bryant Larry Nance Jr. Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 24 19 24 27 Opp. Season 24 20 29 30 22
Opp. Last 7 27 27 26 23 27 Opp. Last 7 2 24 29 28 16

Houston Rockets

Record: 12-14 — Road: 5-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Rockets have won six of their last ten games, but that hasn’t been enough to quiet the drama surrounding this team. There are Dwight Howard trade rumors flying around, as it has been reported that he doesn’t want to be second-fiddle to James Harden. The Rockets are listed as 6-point favorites tonight against the Lakers in Los Angeles. Houston has an implied team total of 109.8 points, which is the highest on the board.

The Lakers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Rockets are the top team to target tonight in daily fantasy. The only question is which player(s) can we trust outside of Harden?

Elite Plays

James Harden

Harden’s production has been down a bit over his last five games, but he is the top play in tonight’s three-game slate. Not only do the Rockets have the highest team total on the board, but the Lakers are ranked 24th against shooting guards this season.

FD — $10,800 — SG
DK — $10,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 25.9
Min/Game — Season: 38.5 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 47.3 | Last Five Games: 43.7

Dwight Howard

Even though there is a lot of drama surrounding Howard right now, it’s still hard to pass up on an opportunity to target him against a Lakers’ defense that can’t rebound or defend the paint. It also helps that this is not a back-to-back situation, so we don’t have to worry about him being on a minutes restriction.

FD — $7,400 — C
DK — $7,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 12.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 26.4

Patrick Beverley

For a three game slate, there is a surprising amount of value tonight. Beverley (unlike Cory Joseph and Jeremy Lin) is cheaper on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. Beverley should see 30+ minutes tonight against the Lakers. He is an elite play tonight on FanDuel.

FD — $4,200 — PG
DK — $5,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.4 | Last Five Games: 15.3
Min/Game — Season: 24.6 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 12.4 | Last Five Games: 21.5

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza

Ariza’s minutes have been down recently, but that is because he only played four minutes in the game that he got hurt. In his last two games, he has averaged 37 minutes per contest. He is a borderline elite play tonight, especially on FanDuel, as we have to roster two small forwards on that site.

FD — $5,600 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.8 | Last Five Games: 13.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 26.8
FP/Game — Season: 22.8 | Last Five Games: 21.3

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 4-21 — Home: 2-6 — Last 10: 2-8

The Lakers are coming off of their fourth win of the season. They are only 4-21 on the year, but they are still only listed as 6-point underdogs tonight. If this game stays close, it will be full of fantasy goodness. The Lakers have an implied team total of 103.8 points, which is 6.1 points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

The Lakers may be slightly worse defensively, but the Rockets aren’t far behind. On the season, they are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. There should be a ton of points scored in this one.

Elite Plays

Louis Williams

Williams has played well as a starter, averaging 26.5 fantasy points in 31.7 minutes per contest over his last five. He should see minutes in the low 30’s tonight against the Rockets, who have struggled to defend all five positions on the floor.

FD — $5,200 — SG
DK — $5,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 19.5 | Last Five Games: 26.5

Secondary Plays

Kobe Bryant

There aren’t many nights when I consider targeting Bryant, but this is one of them. He is very affordable on DraftKings and he comes into tonight’s game in good form, averaging 30.9 fantasy points per game in his last five.

FD — $6,800 — SG
DK — $6,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.0 | Last Five Games: 23.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 28.8
FP/Game — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 30.9

D’Angelo Russell

Even though Russell lost his starting job, he has seen close to starter’s minutes recently. He has had a terrific five-game stretch, averaging 28.2 fantasy points in 31.3 minutes per game. He makes an intriguing tournament play against this bad Rockets’ defense.

FD — $5,700 — PG
DK — $5,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 23.9
Min/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 31.3
FP/Game — Season: 22.9 | Last Five Games: 28.2

Jordan Clarkson

If I had to choose between Lou Williams and Clarkson, I’d give the edge to Sweet Lou. His minutes and production have both been higher over the last five games. Clarkson is still in a nice spot, but he will likely be defended by Patrick Beverley, who is an excellent on-ball defender.

FD — $5,600 — PG
DK — $5,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 29.3
FP/Game — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 21.4

Roy Hibbert

I could be mistaken, but I believe this is the first time that Hibbert has been featured in the Grind Down all season. Welcome to the big time, buddy!. He has actually been a pretty consistent fantasy option this season. He lacks upside, but he is a decent punt play at center. He could even see a couple extra minutes tonight against Dwight Howard.

FD — $5,000 — C
DK — $4,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.9 | Last Five Games: 12.1
Min/Game — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 28.1
FP/Game — Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 22.0

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious