NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 15th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.0 | Vegas Spread | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.5 | Implied Team Total | 108.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Thon Maker | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 26 | DvP | 27 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 26 | 25 | 3 | 29 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 9 | |
Denver Nuggets
This is the final slate before a week-long break from NBA DFS. While I will certainly enjoy some time off, I will be itching to play some fantasy basketball by Monday or Tuesday. There are only two games on the schedule tonight, so we have to dive deep into the player pool. The Nuggets draw the worst matchup of the slate. They are playing on the road and they are facing a Bucks’ defense that has been lethal over the last few weeks. After being a bottom ten defense for most of the season, Milwaukee has vaulted up to tenth in points allowed per game. The Nuggets have an implied total of 105.5 points, which is the lowest on the board and two points below their season average.
Jamal Murray is listed as probable for tonight’s game and isn’t expected to be on a minute restriction. He played 37 minutes the other night against the Spurs. The issue for Murray is his matchup against Eric Bledsoe and the Bucks, who are ranked eighth in efficiency against point guards this season. Murray isn’t a cash game target in my eyes, but he’s certainly a way to differentiate your lineups. Gary Harris and Will Barton are both elite plays in all formats. They should both push for 35+ minutes against the likes of Tony Snell and Khris Middleton, who both have negative defensive real plus-minus (DRPM) grades. Wilson Chandler has logged 40 and 34 minutes in his last two games and should play a lot again tonight with so many injuries to the Nuggets wing and frontcourt players. Devin Harris should play around 20 minutes if you are looking for a tournament punt that will be low owned.
The Nuggets’ frontcourt is awfully thin right now. Mason Plumlee and Kenneth Faried have both been ruled out of tonight’s game. While I expect to see a lot of Chandler at the four, there should be a few extra minutes in the rotation for Trey Lyles. He’s one of those players that deserves more minutes, but continues to perform well in limited playing. On the season, Lyles is averaging 1.02 fantasy points per minute and he is priced at a discount tonight on DraftKings ($4,400). Nikola Jokic messed around and posted a triple-double against the Spurs and now gets to face a Bucks’ defense that is ranked 29th in efficiency against centers and 27th in rebounding differential.
Notable Injuries
Mason Plumlee (Out)
Torrey Craig (Out)
Kenneth Faried (Out)
Gary Harris (Probable)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -1.9 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $6,300 | $6,100 | $12,800 | 26.1 | -4.1 | 30.2 | 0.1 | 0.86 | 21.6% | 8 | 9 | 5 |
| Gary Harris | $6,000 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 29.4 | -4.9 | 34.8 | -1.5 | 0.84 | 18.9% | 12 | 3 | 26 |
| Will Barton | $7,700 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 29.7 | 4.3 | 32.3 | 4.1 | 0.92 | 19.9% | 8 | 1 | 25 |
| Wilson Chandler | $6,200 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 20.1 | 4.7 | 30.4 | -2.0 | 0.66 | 13.4% | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| Nikola Jokic | $10,000 | $9,800 | $19,900 | 41.0 | 5.0 | 31.4 | -1.9 | 1.30 | 22.5% | 29 | 26 | 29 |
| Trey Lyles | $5,000 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 21.3 | 4.9 | 20.9 | 2.2 | 1.02 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Devin Harris | $3,800 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 15.5 | 1.5 | 18.5 | 2.4 | 0.84 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Gary Harris, Will Barton, Nikola Jokic, Wilson Chandler (DK), Trey Lyles (DK)
Secondary Plays – Wilson Chandler (FD), Trey Lyles (FD), Jamal Murray (GPP), Devin Harris (GPP)
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have won eight of their last ten games and are playing some inspired basketball under interim coach Joe Prunty. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Bucks come into the game with an implied total of 108.5 points, which is the second highest on the board and four points above their season average. While we can’t completely fade a game in a slate that only features two of them, it’s worth pointing out that the Lakers-Wolves game has blowout potential, while this one features a three-point spread.
In a larger slate, Eric Bledsoe would be an easy fade at his price on FanDuel ($8,000). However, the combination of very few options at point guard and the fact that he is facing the Nuggets makes Bledsoe an elite play in all formats. Jamal Murray is a poor defender and the Nuggets as a whole are ranked 29th in efficiency against point guards. Tony Snell and Sterling Brown should both play decent minutes, but they are deep tournament plays at best, even in a two-game slate. Khris Middleton will likely draw the defense of Gary Harris, who has one of the best DRPM grades of any shooting guard this season. Middleton is still viable given the high total for the Bucks, but I prefer the two Nuggets’ shooting guards at their respective price points.
My favorite two plays of the slate are both listed as small forwards on FanDuel — Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jimmy Butler. Giannis has an elite usage rate, he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet, and we have enough cap room to easily fit him into our lineups. Jabari Parker is still on his 20-minute restriction (at least as of Tuesday), but is firmly in play at a price of only $3,900 on FanDuel. This is one of those slates where we’d be happy taking 18 fantasy points from Parker, as he allows us to pay up for the likes of Giannis and Butler. Thon Maker is one of the top value plays on the board. While the matchup isn’t great, he should play around 25 minutes. If you are looking for a pivot, Tyler Zeller has played 21 and 23 minutes in the two games that John Henson has missed.
Notable Injuries
John Henson (Out)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $8,000 | $7,100 | $14,500 | 33.1 | 6.9 | 30.7 | 2.3 | 1.08 | 24.0% | 29 | 27 | 26 |
| Tony Snell | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 14.2 | -3.9 | 29.0 | -1.3 | 0.49 | 9.8% | 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,900 | $6,900 | $13,600 | 34.9 | -3.4 | 36.7 | -3.4 | 0.95 | 22.4% | 10 | 13 | 22 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,700 | $10,700 | $21,200 | 52.4 | -7.3 | 37.0 | -2.1 | 1.42 | 28.4% | 21 | 22 | 18 |
| Thon Maker | $3,800 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 18.2 | 2.7 | 0.75 | 11.8% | 18 | 22 | 9 |
| Jabari Parker | $3,900 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 15.0 | 0.1 | 17.8 | 0.7 | 0.84 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sterling Brown | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 14.5 | 4.3 | 0.72 | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Zeller | $4,200 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 14.7 | -1.6 | 16.7 | -0.5 | 0.88 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker (FD), Thon Maker (FD)
Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker (DK), Thon Maker (DK), Khris Middleton, Tyler Zeller (GPP)
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 9:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 226.0 |  | Vegas Total | 226.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.0 | Implied Team Total | 118.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Josh Hart | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Julius Randle | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 6 | DvP | 25 | 22 | 29 | 24 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 23 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 19 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Pelicans in New Orleans last night. Their matchup against the Wolves is mediocre, as Minnesota is ranked between 13th and 24th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Lakers come into the game as double-digit underdogs with an implied total of 108 points, which is the third highest of the slate and one point above their season average.
Josh Hart has played 29 and 31 minutes in the two games since the Lakers acquired Isaiah Thomas. I’m going to set Hart’s minute projection in the 28-30 range, which makes him an intriguing fade at his price point on FanDuel ($6,000). If you want some exposure to Hart, he’s a much better play on DraftKings ($4,400). Thomas was thrown out of last night’s game, which ended up hurting my lineups on DraftKings. If anything, at least he is well rested for tonight’s game. He should play at least 30 minutes against a Wolves’ defense that is ranked 21st in efficiency against point guards. Playing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on a regular basis is not good for the heart, but he provides upside at a price point of $5,100 on DraftKings.
Brandon Ingram got into foul trouble last night and only logged 31 minutes against the Pelicans. Look for him to play 36-38 tonight if this game stays close. If his ownership is going to be relatively low, I love loading up on him in cash games and tournaments. It will be interesting to see who Jimmy Butler defends in this game. Julius Randle has averaged 32 minutes and 34 fantasy points over his last five games. While Taj Gibson is a solid defender, Randle’s form and upside more than makes up for a slightly subpar matchup. Kyle Kuzma has shined without Larry Nance in the lineup, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in three straight games. While he is priced at a premium, Kuzma is viable in tournaments. Brook Lopez doesn’t see consistent minutes, but I expect him to play 25+ tonight against Karl-Anthony Towns. Lopez is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board.
Notable Injuries
Lonzo Ball (Out)
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.0 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 1.0 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart | $6,000 | $4,600 | $10,200 | 14.4 | 14.3 | 20.8 | 11.9 | 0.69 | 10.9% | 21 | 19 | 21 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,700 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 25.9 | 3.4 | 32.5 | -1.4 | 0.80 | 16.0% | 25 | 21 | 1 |
| Brandon Ingram | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,800 | 29.9 | 3.1 | 33.8 | 0.1 | 0.88 | 20.4% | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| Julius Randle | $7,500 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 27.2 | 7.0 | 24.4 | 7.1 | 1.12 | 21.0% | 5 | 5 | 12 |
| Brook Lopez | $5,300 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 22.6 | -0.1 | 21.3 | 3.9 | 1.06 | 22.0% | 25 | 6 | 23 |
| Kyle Kuzma | $6,900 | $6,000 | $12,900 | 26.9 | 1.6 | 29.7 | -4.4 | 0.91 | 20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Isaiah Thomas | $7,300 | $5,800 | $12,900 | 22.7 | -1.4 | 26.0 | -1.9 | 0.87 | 25.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Corey Brewer | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,000 | 9.4 | -0.3 | 12.8 | 1.2 | 0.73 | 12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Julius Randle, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DK), Brandon Ingram (GPP), Brook Lopez (GPP), Isaiah Thomas (DK)
Secondary Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD), Brandon Ingram (Cash), Brook Lopez (Cash), Isaiah Thomas (FD), Josh Hart (DK), Kyle Kuzma (GPP)
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves have lost six of their last ten games, but are still sitting in fourth place in the Western Conference standings. They have the best matchup on the board tonight, as they take on a Lakers’ team that is ranked first in pace of play and 25th in points allowed per game this season. The Wolves have an implied total of 118 points, which is the highest of the slate and eight points above their season average. While there is the potential for this game to turn into a blowout, Tom Thibodeau doesn’t mind playing his starters a few more minutes than necessary.
Jeff Teague has played well over his last five games, averaging 31 fantasy points per contest. He draws an elite matchup against the Lakers, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the point guard position. Teague is a safe play in all formats, although he will garner a lot of ownership. Jimmy Butler is my favorite superstar of the slate when you factor in salaries. Anytime we can target a player that is going to see 40 minutes against the Lakers, we should take note. Andrew Wiggins is not on my cash game radar, but this is certainly a spot where he can be efficient offensively. Dollar for dollar, I would much rather play Jamal Crawford. He should play around 20 minutes and on the season, he is averaging 0.82 fantasy points per minute.
Taj Gibson is my go-to cash game target at power forward in these small slates. He offers a high floor, he regularly sees 33+ minutes, and every once in a while he provides some upside. The Lakers are ranked 29th in efficiency against his position, so we can fire up Gibson as an elite option in all formats. Karl-Anthony Towns should be able to dominate the Lakers’ frontcourt and he’s coming off of two huge outings, posting 59 and 65 fantasy points. There is nothing to suggest that he won’t play well again tonight, although he is certainly priced at a premium.
Notable Injuries
None
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 109.6 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 118.0 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 8.4 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.5 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,700 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 29.7 | 1.6 | 33.1 | -1.3 | 0.90 | 19.8% | 19 | 25 | 16 |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,500 | $9,500 | $18,000 | 41.8 | 5.6 | 37.2 | 2.7 | 1.12 | 23.9% | 13 | 22 | 6 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,300 | $6,400 | $13,400 | 29.1 | -7.0 | 36.2 | 1.8 | 0.80 | 21.0% | 18 | 29 | 20 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,200 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 26.3 | -3.7 | 33.5 | -1.3 | 0.79 | 13.2% | 29 | 24 | 20 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $10,300 | $9,300 | $19,200 | 43.5 | 5.8 | 35.2 | -0.3 | 1.24 | 19.6% | 11 | 8 | 19 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 15.5 | 0.1 | 18.9 | 1.3 | 0.82 | 22.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gorgui Dieng | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 16.1 | -5.0 | 17.5 | -3.5 | 0.92 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nemanja Bjelica | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 12.6 | -0.5 | 15.8 | 0.5 | 0.80 | 13.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Jamal Crawford, Karl-Anthony Towns
Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins (GPP)
Final Thoughts
These two-game slates aren’t my favorite, but at least we have some good offenses in play. I don’t have a lot to share other than you don’t need to overthink this slate in cash games. Target the best plays, regardless of ownership. For tournaments, you don’t need to make a completely contrarian lineup. Target your favorite players and look to differentiate elsewhere. From a construction standpoint, I actually find myself paying down at center. As mentioned earlier, I love both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jimmy Butler and it’s a lot easier to play them together when you avoid the two expensive centers. I hope everyone has a great All-Star break and I will see you all one week from now.