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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-02-03 03:29:53

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Note: LaMarcus Aldridge and Draymond Green have been ruled OUT for tonight.

Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Washington Wizards
lalakersnba Vegas Total 218.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 218.5
Vegas Spread 11.0 Vegas Spread -11.0
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 114.8
Pace +/- 0.3 Pace +/- 1.4
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Luol Deng Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 3 3 12 26 5 Adj. DvP 26 24 22 30 30
DRPM -0.25 -0.62 1.10 1.53 1.41 DRPM -0.90 -2.19 1.04 0.33 -0.13

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers come into tonight’s game as 11-point underdogs against the Wizards, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Lakers have an implied total of 103.8 points, which is the second lowest in the slate. D’Angelo Russell made a big splash in his first game back from injury, scoring 47 fantasy points in 34 minutes of action. I don’t mind looking his way in tournaments, but his ownership may be inflated after that big game against the Nuggets. Lou Williams can take over a game at any time and makes for a strong GPP target against the Wizards. Nick Young should see minutes in the high 20s against a team that he used to play for. I’m not playing Swaggy P for that reason, but he is a decent punt play at shooting guard. If Julius Randle is ruled out, Ivica Zubac would make a strong value play at center. After his second solid game in a row, Luke Walton said that Zubac has earned a spot in the rotation moving forward.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D’Angelo Russell $6,100 $5,700 0.99 26.5 7.7 26.4 21.0 29.6% -0.2% 3 -0.25
Nick Young $4,300 $4,100 0.73 26.6 3.2 19.4 3.5 18.6% 0.4% 3 -0.62
Luol Deng $4,100 $3,700 0.69 27.3 -1.2 18.8 -5.7 14.8% -0.2% 12 1.10
Julius Randle $6,300 $6,200 0.99 29.2 -9.0 28.8 -15.3 23.3% 4.1% 26 1.53
Timofey Mozgov $3,700 $3,100 0.74 20.9 -3.4 15.4 3.7 16.7% 1.7% 5 1.41
Lou Williams $6,500 $5,700 1.08 24.4 1.3 26.4 11.8 30.8% -2.3% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell, Lou Williams, Nick Young, Ivica Zubac

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won five games in a row and nine of their last ten. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the Lakers at home. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked 27th in points allowed per game and dead last in defensive efficiency. The Wizards have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 7.8 points above their season average. John Wall has had an incredibly high floor this season and the Lakers are ranked 26th against point guards. He is an elite play in all formats, even at his price point. Bradley Beal is also a borderline elite play, although his game log have been more volatile than Wall’s. Otto Porter is a bit expensive right now, but he typically is at his best in uptempo matchups against turnover prone teams. Markieff Morris is a completely different player than he was earlier in the season. He is arguably the best point-per-dollar play at power forward. Marcin Gortat is a high-floor option that can be used in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,800 $10,400 1.23 36.2 -2.4 44.6 -3.3 34.6% -0.2% 26 -0.90
Bradley Beal $7,200 $7,000 0.92 34.2 -1.9 31.5 0.1 26.6% -0.6% 24 -2.19
Otto Porter $6,700 $6,500 0.83 33.6 -1.5 28.0 3.9 15.2% -0.3% 22 1.04
Markieff Morris $7,500 $6,800 0.84 31.9 0.1 26.7 5.8 20.5% 4.2% 30 0.33
Marcin Gortat $6,700 $6,000 0.85 34.5 -4.5 29.3 6.7 14.0% 1.9% 30 -0.13
Kelly Oubre $3,800 $3,400 0.64 20.4 7.2 13.1 1.0 14.1% -2.0% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter

Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Houston Rockets
atlantanba Vegas Total 222.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Team Total 106.5 Team Total 115.5
Pace +/- 2.9 Pace +/- 0.9
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 20 20 28 24 24 Adj. DvP 17 19 20 9 4
DRPM 1.81 -1.42 1.25 -0.63 0.63 DRPM -2.70 -1.37 -0.51 4.24 2.32

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but their matchup against the Rockets is an exploitable one. On the season, Houston is ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 16th in defensive efficiency. The Hawks have an implied total of 106.5 points, which is 2.7 points above their season average. Dennis Schroder has really struggled with consistency and draws a difficult matchup against Patrick Beverley. Even in a short slate, he should only be targeted in tournaments. Thabo Sefolosha is hoping to play tonight, which would cut into the minutes of Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway. If Sefolosha is out, both players would become viable value plays. Paul Millsap draws a solid matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 24th against power forwards. They don’t have anyone to match up against in the post or on the perimeter. Dwight Howard is in a prime revenge spot against his former team. A motivated Dwight Howard is typically a good one and the Rockets are ranked 24th against centers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,700 $6,400 0.96 31.0 5.6 29.7 2.3 29.9% 0.1% 20 1.81
Tim Hardaway $4,900 $4,200 0.76 23.8 13.9 18.1 8.5 22.4% -2.2% 20 -1.42
Kent Bazemore $5,000 $5,300 0.76 27.5 6.9 20.8 10.2 20.9% -0.8% 28 1.25
Paul Millsap $8,500 $7,800 1.06 34.4 5.4 36.3 1.6 25.1% -0.7% 24 -0.63
Dwight Howard $7,100 $6,900 1.12 29.6 4.2 33.1 0.4 18.5% -1.6% 24 0.63

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway (if Sefolosha is out)

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have proven themselves time and time again against the best teams in the NBA. They have a chance to make another statement tonight with a win over the Hawks, who have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA over the last three weeks. The Hawks have an implied total of 115.5 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 1.4 points above their season average. I’d like to say that James Harden last two games will lower his ownership, but we all know that isn’t true. He is the top overall play in the slate and it’s not very close. Patrick Beverley and Trevor Ariza are typically easy fades in full slates, but both are on my radar with only four games on the schedule. Ryan Anderson has struggled at home this season, but is seeing a ton of minutes recently. He makes a nice tournament play against the Hawks. The same goes for Eric Gordon, who should see around 30 minutes off the bench. The Rockets’ centers are all easy fades, as they are splitting minutes and draw a tough matchup against Dwight Howard.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,200 $5,000 0.81 31.1 1.7 25.2 -6.2 16.0% 0.0% 17 -2.70
James Harden $12,000 $12,400 1.47 36.4 -2.2 53.4 -5.0 38.6% 0.9% 19 -1.37
Trevor Ariza $5,300 $5,100 0.74 34.4 -3.2 25.3 -4.3 14.6% -3.0% 20 -0.51
Ryan Anderson $5,900 $5,200 0.73 30.6 4.3 22.3 9.9 17.2% 2.4% 9 4.24
Clint Capela $4,900 $4,700 1.06 23.0 -1.7 24.5 -0.6 19.1% 3.4% 4 2.32
Eric Gordon $5,600 $5,100 0.83 30.4 -3.1 25.1 -3.5 23.8% 1.5% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Trevor Ariza

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Eric Gordon (GPP), Ryan Anderson (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers San Antonio Spurs
philadelphianba Vegas Total 209.5 sanantonionba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 14.0 Vegas Spread -14.0
Team Total 97.8 Team Total 111.8
Pace +/- -2.0 Pace +/- 1.3
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard Davis Bertans LaMarcus Aldridge
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 4 13 3 6 2 Adj. DvP 9 25 10 5 29
DRPM -1.26 1.05 0.66 -0.14 0.82 DRPM 0.63 -0.68 2.93 0.53 -0.89

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Mavericks last night in Dallas. They draw one of the worst possible matchups, as they take on the Spurs in San Antonio. There is a reason why we don’t target players against the Spurs – they are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and are ranked second in points allowed per game. Joel Embiid sounds like he is closer to doubtful than questionable, which opens up minutes for Jahlil Okafor, Ersan Ilyasova, and Nerlens Noel. Robert Covington is questionable, but it’s not like we are going to load up on the Sixers even if he’s out. It’s tough to completely fade a team in a four game slate, but that’s my plan tonight with the Sixers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,900 $5,600 0.82 23.9 8.8 19.6 11.7 19.5% 1.5% 4 -1.26
Nik Stauskas $3,700 $3,700 0.58 26.3 3.5 15.3 4.8 16.1% 2.7% 13 1.05
Robert Covington $6,400 $6,400 0.79 30.9 5.6 24.4 13.8 18.0% 0.6% 3 0.66
Ersan Ilyasova $5,700 $5,800 0.91 27.3 -0.6 24.8 -2.8 22.3% 2.1% 6 -0.14
Jahlil Okafor $4,700 $4,400 0.88 23.0 -1.4 20.2 1.6 21.9% 6.5% 2 0.82
Nerlens Noel $6,200 $6,000 1.07 17.9 5.2 19.2 7.1 18.0% -3.4% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are typically a team that takes care of business at home. They are listed as 14-point favorites tonight against the Sixers, who are likely going to be without their best player in Joel Embiid. I often mention this in the Grind Down, but when it comes to a potential blowout, I would much rather target players from the team that is favored. I explain the reasons why in this RotoAcademy video couse. Tony Parker is a decent punt play in this matchup. While he hasn’t been in great form, he is only $4,500 on FanDuel and $4,100 on DraftKings. Kawhi Leonard is coming off of a huge game and he should benefit if Robert Covington is unable to suit up. The only concern with Leonard is that he could sit the fourth quarter if the game gets out of hand. LaMarcus Aldridge has been in good form and draws a nice matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 29th against centers and 22nd in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,500 $4,100 0.79 25.6 -2.2 20.3 -3.7 24.1% -0.7% 9 0.63
Danny Green $3,700 $3,800 0.62 26.5 1.4 16.6 3.8 12.9% -1.6% 25 -0.68
Kawhi Leonard $10,100 $9,000 1.20 33.7 0.7 40.4 1.4 29.7% 5.3% 10 2.93
Davis Bertans $3,500 $3,100 0.71 10.9 9.1 7.7 8.9 15.1% 0.7% 5 0.53
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,800 $6,700 0.99 32.2 -0.8 31.8 0.2 23.9% 5.6% 29 -0.89
Patty Mills $3,800 $3,600 0.81 21.9 -2.1 17.8 -5.0 21.9% -1.2% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Tony Parker

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 224.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 224.5
Vegas Spread -8.5 Vegas Spread 8.5
Team Total 116.5 Team Total 108.0
Pace +/- -0.2 Pace +/- 4.4
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green JaVale McGee Proj. Starter Austin Rivers J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 5 2 24 15 21 Adj. DvP 8 15 9 18 18
DRPM -2.23 -1.52 2.61 1.25 2.56 DRPM 0.12 -1.03 2.25 4.30 1.09

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are coming off of yet another blowout win. They are 42-7 overall, which is easily the best record in the NBA. Their matchup against the Clippers doesn’t look great on paper, but we can generally throw out statistics when the Warriors are on the schedule. They come into the game as 8.5-point favorites with an implied total of 116.5 points, which is the highest in the slate. Stephen Curry will not have to deal with Chris Paul tonight and he is coming off of some monster fantasy outings. He has scored at least 60 fantasy points in back-to-back games. Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green are also in play, but you have to love the form that Curry is in right now. When he takes over a game, there isn’t a lot left for his teammates. As far as my second play goes, it would probably be Green, as he loves to face Blake Griffin. JaVale McGee scored 21 fantasy points last night in his spot start for Zaza Pachulia, but he only played 17 minutes. I will let others chase those points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,600 $8,700 1.20 33.5 -0.9 40.1 10.0 30.2% 5.5% 5 -2.23
Klay Thompson $6,300 $6,700 0.86 34.1 -2.7 29.2 0.7 23.7% 1.7% 2 -1.52
Kevin Durant $10,700 $10,300 1.36 34.3 -0.5 46.7 -1.7 28.0% 4.6% 24 2.61
Draymond Green $7,600 $8,100 1.08 33.2 -1.3 36.0 -8.4 18.9% -1.2% 15 1.25
JaVale McGee $3,500 $3,000 1.19 8.3 -0.6 9.9 1.8 23.2% -3.2% 21 2.56
Andre Iguodala $4,400 $4,000 0.69 25.5 4.6 17.5 7.4 11.7% -2.7% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are a good team when fully healthy, but that is something that they have struggled with for years now. They will be without Chris Paul tonight, as they square off against the best team in the NBA. On the season, the Warriors are ranked 14th in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. The Clippers do have a high implied total at 108 points, but the fantasy options here aren’t very reliable. My favorite play of the bunch is Blake Griffin, who played 34 minutes last night. If the Clippers are willing to give him a full complement of minutes tonight, he is close to a must play on DraftKings at $7,700. Austin Rivers has been playing well recently and should draw the defense of Stephen Curry. While Rivers is worth a look in cash games, Raymond Felton, J.J. Redick, and Jamal Crawford are best suited for tournaments. DeAndre Jordan has played well against the Warriors in the past and is a strong play in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Austin Rivers $5,800 $6,400 0.68 27.3 12.0 18.7 10.2 20.4% 1.6% 8 0.12
J.J. Redick $4,700 $5,200 0.72 28.0 4.0 20.3 -0.3 21.7% -0.5% 15 -1.03
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 0.55 23.3 -3.6 12.8 3.0 11.4% -1.7% 9 2.25
Blake Griffin $9,200 $7,700 1.17 33.1 -7.0 38.8 -10.5 29.6% 4.3% 18 4.30
DeAndre Jordan $8,000 $7,400 1.06 31.8 -2.0 33.7 -4.7 14.7% -3.6% 18 1.09
Jamal Crawford $4,500 $4,400 0.67 26.5 3.5 17.8 4.8 23.5% 0.5% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin (DK), DeAndre Jordan

Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin (FD), Austin Rivers, J.J. Redick (GPP), Jamal Crawford (GPP)

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious