NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 4th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 229.5 |  | Vegas Total | 229.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.5 | Vegas Spread | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 117.0 | Implied Team Total | 112.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Patrick McCaw | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | Projected Starters | Chris Paul | Eric Gordon | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 21 | 28 | 4 | 14 | DvP | 16 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 24 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 6 | 25 | 11 | 28 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 15 | 16 | 24 | 1 | 2 | |
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors and Rockets are both ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency, but they both play at a fast pace and these are two of the best offenses in basketball. The Warriors are listed as 4.5-point favorites tonight and they have the highest implied total on the board at 117 points.
For whatever reason, the DraftKings’ pricing algorithm made an error with the Warriors’ pricing. The big four from the Warriors are each about a thousand dollars too cheap and now that Kevin Durant has been ruled out, the other three are close to must plays. With the highest implied total on the board, a full Warriors’ stack on DraftKings is viable in all formats. Stephen Curry has shown no signs of rust since coming back from injury. In his last two starts, he has scored 47 and 50 fantasy points. He’s an elite play on DraftKings ($8,400) and a borderline elite play on FanDuel ($9,800). I try to avoid point guards facing Chris Paul whenever possible, but will be making an exception for Curry tonight.
Klay Thompson isn’t a player that I roster often in DFS. He has only topped 34 fantasy points one time in his last seven games, but a matchup against the Rockets is enticing. Thompson is cheap enough on DraftKings that he deserves a look in all formats, but he’s arguably a secondary play on FanDuel. It feels like DraftKings is forcing our hands a bit with the Warriors, but fading them in a high scoring game without Durant doesn’t seem to be the answer.
Andre Iguodala and Omri Casspi are both questionable for tonight’s game. With Durant out, Patrick McCaw could provide some much-needed value. If Iguodala is active, he would stand out as a nice point-per-dollar play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I don’t have any interest in the Warriors’ centers, but Draymond Green is in a great spot. He has scored at least 35 fantasy points in five of his last seven games and should see a full complement of minutes tonight in Houston. Green is an elite play on both FanDuel ($7,800) and DraftKings ($6,600).
Notable Injuries
Andre Iguodala (Questionable)
Omri Casspi (Questionable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 115.4 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.0 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,800 | $8,400 | $17,600 | 45.4 | 3.3 | 32.4 | -2.4 | 1.40 | 28.9% | 4 | 12 | 6 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,800 | $6,100 | $13,200 | 31.7 | -2.5 | 34.1 | 0.2 | 0.93 | 21.2% | 26 | 21 | 25 |
| Patrick McCaw | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 10.5 | 2.4 | 16.0 | 0.1 | 0.66 | 11.4% | 24 | 28 | 11 |
| Draymond Green | $7,800 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 35.8 | -2.9 | 31.7 | -5.2 | 1.13 | 16.1% | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $4,000 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 15.1 | 2.0 | 14.6 | 1.3 | 1.03 | 13.6% | 15 | 14 | 4 |
| Jordan Bell | $5,500 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 17.6 | 8.4 | 14.9 | 5.2 | 1.18 | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Andre Iguodala | $3,800 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.5 | -3.5 | 26.2 | -4.1 | 0.70 | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson (DK), Draymond Green
Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson (FD), Andre Iguodala (if active), Patrick McCaw
Houston Rockets
The Rockets picked up a stress-free win over the Magic last night in Orlando. Tonight they host the Warriors in a battle between the two best teams in the Western Conference. This isn’t a particularly good or bad matchup for fantasy production. The Warriors have a good defense, but also play at the fourth-fastest pace. The Rockets come into the game with an implied total of 112.5. While that’s three points below their season average, we should keep in mind that they are playing without James Harden, who is averaging 32 points by himself this season.
Chris Paul didn’t have the game that many of us were hoping for last night. He didn’t shoot the ball well, he got off to a slow start, and he didn’t play the last four minutes of the game. Even with all of that, he still managed to score 39 fantasy points. I’m going right back to the well tonight, as Paul averages 1.71 FP/min this season with Harden off the floor. I’ll go out on a limb and predict Paul to be the highest scoring player of the slate. Eric Gordon sees a massive boost with Harden off the floor as well, averaging 0.98 FP/min with a usage rate of 34%. Shooting guard is limited tonight, so I will have a lot of exposure to Gordon.
Trevor Ariza isn’t going to be a high usage player in this offense, no matter who is out. With that said, he should play 38-40 minutes in a pace-up game against the Warriors. Ariza isn’t a core play for me tonight, but he’s on my radar. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Gerald Green. Not only are we starved for value tonight, but Green is averaging 25 minutes and 27 fantasy points in his last three games. P.J. Tucker is a decent value as well, but he doesn’t have the same upside that Green has.
Ryan Anderson continues to have these bizarre home/road splits, averaging 19 fantasy points at home and 24 fantasy points on the road. He says it has something to do with being color blind, but who knows. While I don’t love the volatility, Anderson is one of the best values at power forward. Clint Capela was efficient in his 23 minutes last night against the Magic, scoring 36 fantasy points. With Nene Hilario doubtful, Capela could push for 28-30 minutes tonight against the Warriors.
Notable Injuries
James Harden (Out)
Luc Mbah a Moute (Out)
Nene Hilario (Doubtful)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 115.3 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.5 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $10,400 | $9,800 | $20,100 | 41.5 | -5.2 | 31.4 | 1.7 | 1.32 | 24.0% | 10 | 16 | 15 |
| Eric Gordon | $6,900 | $6,500 | $14,600 | 25.7 | -0.1 | 32.4 | 2.6 | 0.79 | 22.0% | 5 | 6 | 16 |
| Trevor Ariza | $6,000 | $5,300 | $12,000 | 25.1 | 0.6 | 36.0 | 1.1 | 0.70 | 12.3% | 9 | 14 | 24 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 20.4 | 2.4 | 28.6 | 2.0 | 0.71 | 13.3% | 12 | 22 | 1 |
| Clint Capela | $7,500 | $6,800 | $14,300 | 35.1 | -4.6 | 25.8 | 1.9 | 1.36 | 17.4% | 13 | 24 | 2 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,400 | $3,700 | $8,000 | 17.6 | -6.8 | 27.2 | -5.2 | 0.65 | 8.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gerald Green | $4,100 | $4,000 | $9,000 | 20.8 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 0.94 | 16.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, Gerald Green
Secondary Plays – Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker (DK)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Los Angeles Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.8 | Implied Team Total | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Terrance Ferguson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Milos Teodosic | C.J. Williams | Wesley Johnson | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 18 | DvP | 5 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 16 | 2 | 24 | 23 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are technically playing in back-to-back road games, but they are playing in the same arena tonight, after picking up a win against the Lakers in Los Angeles last night. The Clippers are a mediocre matchup for fantasy production, ranking between 13th and 16th in fantasy points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Thunder come into the game as 1.5-point favorites with an implied total of 107.8 points, which gives them the highest projected point differential (+3.5) on the board.
Russell Westbrook only logged 27 minutes last night against the Lakers and still managed to score 46 fantasy points. He is playing his best basketball of the season and he draws a nice matchup against the Clippers. Milos Teodosic is a good on-ball defender, but something tells me that he’s no match for Westbrook. I do prefer Chris Paul dollar for dollar, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t play both. Terrance Ferguson is going to be a popular target tonight, after scoring 35 fantasy points against the Lakers. While I won’t talk you out of playing him, he does make an intriguing fade. On the season, he is only averaging 0.44 FP/min. Given the difference in ownership, I’d rather play Josh Huestis off the bench, who could play just as many minutes.
Paul George has played well for the better part of three weeks and nobody seems to have noticed. His price is lower than it has been for most of the season, yet his ownership continues to be lower than it should. I’m certainly not complaining and I will continue to target him in all formats. He should play 38-40 minutes tonight against the Clippers, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season. Carmelo Anthony isn’t a flashy play and he doesn’t offer much in terms of peripheral stats, but he’s worth a look on FanDuel where we have to roster two power forwards.
I’m not in love with the spot for DeAndre Jordan tonight (we’ll get to the reasons why when we talk about the Clippers) and I really don’t want to play Zaza Pachulia. This leaves two center options — Clint Capela and Steven Adams. I’m slightly higher on Capela, but have no issue with saving some cap space and going down to Adams. He should play minutes in the low to mid-30s and he offers a very high floor for a player at his price point. If you are making a separate lineup for cash games and tournaments, you might want to play Adams in the former and Capela in the latter.
Notable Injuries
Andre Roberson (Out)
Alex Abrines (Questionable)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $12,500 | $11,300 | $22,100 | 53.5 | 8.4 | 36.2 | -1.1 | 1.48 | 34.6% | 8 | 6 | 2 |
| Terrance Ferguson | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 3.6 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 0.44 | 11.0% | 24 | 30 | 4 |
| Paul George | $8,400 | $7,000 | $13,200 | 38.5 | 1.9 | 36.8 | -3.9 | 1.05 | 22.8% | 22 | 13 | 4 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,100 | $5,800 | $13,500 | 29.6 | -3.0 | 32.9 | -1.7 | 0.90 | 22.3% | 10 | 17 | 25 |
| Steven Adams | $6,500 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 30.4 | -0.9 | 32.0 | -3.7 | 0.95 | 14.0% | 16 | 18 | 9 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 16.7 | -0.6 | 21.0 | 0.1 | 0.80 | 14.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Josh Huestis | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 14.0 | 8.3 | 0.58 | 8.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams
Secondary Plays – Terrance Ferguson, Josh Huestis, Carmelo Anthony
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are starting to get healthy and they have won four games in a row. They are close to jumping back in the top eight in the Western Conference standings. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Thunder, but at least they get to face them at home. The Clippers’ implied total of 106.3 points is the lowest on the board, but it’s actually higher than their season average.
Austin Rivers is questionable with an Achilles injury and with this game tipping off two and a half hours after lineups lock, we likely won’t know his status. Even in a two-game slate, I’m not sure it makes sense to use Rivers in tournaments. Milos Teodosic could see a significant boost in playing time if Rivers is out. Teodosic has played 33 minutes in two of his last three games and is arguably the only viable value play at point guard. Lou Williams has played well all season, but his usage could be hurt now that Blake Griffin is back in the lineup. Williams is an intriguing fade in cash games and tournaments.
The wings on the Clippers are inconsistent, both in terms of their playing time and their fantasy production. Even in a small slate, I don’t have any interest in Wesley Johnson, C.J. Williams, or Sam Dekker. I do have interest in Blake Griffin, who is averaging 42 fantasy points in his first three games back from injury. Something tells me that Carmelo Anthony and Paul George won’t be able to defend Griffin well. We have to take stands in these small slates and one of my stands is against DeAndre Jordan. He hasn’t been as productive playing next to Griffin this season and Steven Adams is an excellent rebounder and defender.
Notable Injuries
Austin Rivers (Questionable)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Teodosic | $5,900 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 20.9 | 3.0 | 25.7 | 3.1 | 0.81 | 19.6% | 13 | 5 | 3 |
| C.J. Williams | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 18.0 | 9.2 | 0.61 | 12.0% | 6 | 9 | 16 |
| Wesley Johnson | $3,500 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 17.1 | -7.5 | 23.8 | -6.6 | 0.72 | 11.6% | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Blake Griffin | $8,700 | $8,200 | $16,500 | 41.6 | 0.2 | 35.5 | -1.8 | 1.17 | 27.8% | 17 | 6 | 24 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,300 | $6,700 | $13,500 | 34.2 | -3.1 | 32.6 | -0.6 | 1.05 | 11.2% | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| Lou Williams | $7,500 | $7,200 | $14,900 | 32.0 | 6.4 | 31.3 | 1.2 | 1.02 | 26.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |