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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, May 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-06 02:02:03

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors – Thursday 8:00 PM

Miami Heat Toronto Raptors
miaminba Vegas Total 188.5 torontonba Vegas Total 188.5
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 92.0 Team Proj. 96.5
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell DeMarre Carroll Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7 Opp. Season 1 4 12 3 8
Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4 Last 3 Weeks 3 15 1 2 26

Miami Heat

Record: 48-34 — Road: 20-21

The Heat picked up a big win in overtime in Game 1 on Wednesday night. They have stolen homecourt advantage from the Raptors and it will be interesting to see if they go for the jugular or if they are content to go back to Miami with the split. Obviously, they want to win Game 2, but sometimes the natural reaction is to have a letdown after accomplishing the goal of getting a split. The Heat are listed as 4.5-point underdogs with their implied team total of 92 points. While that’s not terribly low, it is the lowest projection of the four teams in this slate. Hassan Whiteside is an interesting GPP play, but he was greatly outplayed by Jonas Valanciunas in Game 1.

Elite Plays

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,000
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 1.10 FP/Min: 1.04
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.9 1.4 33.0 2.5
FPPG (FD) 31.6 35.2 3.5 35.8 4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 26.8 26.5 -0.3 24.0 -2.8

Wade’s total stat line was inflated by the fact that Game 1 went into overtime, but he finished with 44 fantasy points in 37 minutes of action. He should see 32-35 minutes per game moving forward, which is a sizable boost over his season average. Wade’s production has gone way up in the postseason and the Heat will look to lean on him on the road similar to the way they did against the Hornets in the first round. Wade did suffer a knee bruise in Game 1, but he is fully expected to play tonight.

Secondary Plays

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,900
Position: PF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.85 FP/Min: 0.76
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 32.4 34.5 2.1 34.2 1.8
FPPG (FD) 24.2 29.4 5.3 27.4 3.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 16.6 1.6 14.2 -0.8

Deng’s Game 1 production was hindered by his five turnovers. He otherwise played pretty well, scoring 22 fantasy points in 39 minutes of action. I expect him to be more involved offensively in the rest of the series and we can expect him to play around 35 minutes per game. He is a nice pivot at power forward if you want to get away from the more expensive players in Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Kevin Love.

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,000
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.87 FP/Min: 0.94
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 32.8 31.2 -1.6 35.0 2.2
FPPG (FD) 27.3 27.1 -0.2 31.9 4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 21.9 3.0 24.0 5.1

Dragic outplayed Lowry in Game 1, scoring 33 fantasy points in 41 minutes of action. He has been a steady source of fantasy production so far this postseason, averaging just over 27 fantasy points per game. He’s not my favorite play at point guard, but he is certainly worth a look if you want a safe pick for cash games.

Joe Johnson
joe-johnson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,700 Salary: $4,800
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.60 FP/Min: 0.69
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 33.4 34.7 1.3 37.2 3.8
FPPG (FD) 22.2 20.8 -1.4 22.2 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 13.8 -1.7 15.8 0.2

I landed on Johnson the other night because he fit the price that I had left at small forward. I didn’t see him as a bad play, but he doesn’t exactly have the type of consistency that I like to see from my players in cash games. Luckily, he came through with 30 fantasy points. Johnson still offers nice value tonight, but he is just as likely to score 15 fantasy points as he is 25 fantasy points.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 56-26 — Home: 32-9

The Raptors managed to complete a terrific fourth quarter comeback in Game 1 to force overtime against the Heat. However, even with all the momentum on their side, they were unable to pick up the win. They now find themselves in what is essentially a must-win Game 2. They are listed as 4.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 96.5 points. With their backs against the wall, I expect them to play well here, but they will need a better outing from their point guard.

Elite Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,100
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.77 FP/Min: 0.98
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.9 36.9 1.0 39.8 3.9
FPPG (FD) 35.3 28.3 -7.0 31.5 -3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 26.1 0.0 26.4 0.4

DeRozan has a nice track record against the Heat. He has been the go-to scorer in the Raptors’ offense in the postseason, especially since Kyle Lowry has struggled so bad. DeRozan played 42 minutes in Game 1, finishing with 35 fantasy points. While there are a number of viable shooting guard targets in this three-game slate, I still see DeRozan as an elite play.

Jonas Valanciunas
jonas-valanciunas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,600
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 1.21 FP/Min: 1.03
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 25.9 28.1 2.2 31.8 5.9
FPPG (FD) 26.9 33.9 7.1 38.4 11.5
TO-Adj. Usage 17.0 19.4 2.4 18.0 0.9

I was off of Valanciunas on Tuesday and for that I apologize. I really wasn’t expecting him to have that much success against Hassan Whiteside, who is known as one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. This could be similar to the Pacers’ series in that Valanciunas starts off hot before the opponent makes some adjustments against him, but for now, treat him as an elite play at center.

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,500
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.75 FP/Min: 1.05
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 37.0 39.1 2.1 39.5 2.5
FPPG (FD) 38.5 29.4 -9.1 27.7 -10.8
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 19.5 -3.4 17.7 -5.1

Lowry hit that amazing half-court shot to send Game 1 into overtime. That was one of the only shots that he hit all night. He was seen in the gym late on Tuesday night working on his shot. I want to believe that he will turn things around, but he just hasn’t been the same ever since he injured his elbow a month or so ago. At this point, he is a GPP play until he can start knocking down some shots.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:00 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Atlanta Hawks
clevelandnba Vegas Total 200.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 95.50 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 8 19 14 12 22 Opp. Season 17 7 6 2 1
Last 3 Weeks 24 13 13 12 23 Last 3 Weeks 21 5 24 9 11

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 57-25 — Road: 24-17 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers absolutely demolished the Hawks in Game 3. They are looking to pull off a rare sweep in three straight seasons against Atlanta. They will likely have a tougher time now that the series shifts to the Hawks’ home floor, but the Cavaliers are still listed as 2.5-point favorites. They have the highest team total on the board at 101.3 points and we want as much exposure to their starting lineup as we can get. On FanDuel, I don’t mind using the maximum of four Cavaliers in cash games.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $11,000
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 1.20 FP/Min: 1.25
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.6 38.9 3.3 36.7 1.1
FPPG (FD) 45.0 46.7 1.7 48.0 3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 24.4 -3.0 25.1 -2.3

James has been tremendous so far in the postseason, averaging 46.7 fantasy points in close to 40 minutes per game. His minutes and production would be a lot higher if it weren’t for a few blowouts. With Game 3 expected to stay close, James should top the 40 minute mark. He has as much upside as any player in this slate and he probably has a higher floor than both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,100
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.00 FP/Min: 1.03
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 31.5 34.6 3.1 32.9 1.4
FPPG (FD) 32.4 34.5 2.1 31.5 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 21.1 1.1 21.4 1.5

Love had a nice outing brewing in Game 2, but eventually fell short of salary expectations because of the blowout. He is averaging right around a fantasy point per minute so far in the postseason and he has 36-38 minute upside. He remains an elite play against the Hawks, who are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA.

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $8,300
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.08 FP/Min: 0.97
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 31.5 34.7 3.2 32.5 1.0
FPPG (FD) 30.8 37.6 6.8 37.2 6.4
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 26.7 1.0 26.7 1.0

Irving always seems to be a borderline elite play for me. With the series shifting to Atlanta, I am going to give him the bump and call him an elite play because we don’t have to worry about the game turning into a blowout (at least not as much as we did in the first two games). Irving draws a difficult matchup against Jeff Teague, but he is averaging close to 38 fantasy points per game in the playoffs.

Tristan Thompson
tristan-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,800 Salary: $4,800
Position: C Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.58 FP/Min: 0.77
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.7 28.9 1.2 32.7 5.0
FPPG (FD) 21.3 16.8 -4.5 20.0 -1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 9.9 7.3 -2.6 8.8 -1.1

Thompson got the shaft in Game 2. He played well in the first quarter, but then barely saw the court in the second quarter, as the Cavaliers went on that huge run. By the time he got back into the game in the third quarter, it was all but over and he only ended up playing 19 minutes. Look for him to bounce back in Game 3, as the Cavaliers need his rebounding down low.

Secondary Plays

J.R. Smith
j.r.-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,700 Salary: $5,300
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.70 FP/Min: 0.64
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.7 34.8 4.1 33.9 3.2
FPPG (FD) 20.3 24.3 4.0 23.4 3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 13.1 -2.9 12.9 -3.1

Smith (like most of the Cavaliers) caught fire in Game 2. I expect his ownership to be inflated in this slate. While I still think he is a fine play at shooting guard, I don’t consider him a must play. I expect the three starts on the Cavaliers to take over offensively. Smith could certainly have another big game, but he could just as easily put up a dud. That’s what streaky shooters do.

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 48-34 — Home: 27-14 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hawks were embarrassed by the Cavaliers in Game 2. I honestly thought that they would be confident heading into that game, after almost pulling off the upset in Game 1. Look for the Hawks to play some much better basketball now that the series shifts to Atlanta. If this game stays close, it will be the top game to target of the three in the Thursday/Friday slate. The Hawks are projected to score 98.8 points, which is the fourth highest on the board. At this point, I’m not sure what to do with the Hawks’ point guards. Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder minutes have been all over the map. Schroder is still the preferred play of the two, but I don’t see either as a must play in this slate.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $8,600
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.04 FP/Min: 1.13
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 32.7 35.6 2.9 34.4 1.7
FPPG (FD) 37.5 37.2 -0.3 38.4 1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 18.5 -1.4 19.4 -0.5

Millsap was the only Hawks’ player that showed up in Game 2. He has been very productive in this series, even against a tough Cavaliers’ frontcourt. He is an elite play again in Game 3, although we are going to have to make some difficult decisions at power forward. Aldridge, Love, and Millsap are all nice options at power forward.

Secondary Plays

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,400
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 0.98 FP/Min: 1.05
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 32.1 32.1 0.0 30.4 -1.7
FPPG (FD) 32.3 31.4 -0.9 24.0 -8.3
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 15.7 -2.2 14.3 -3.6

Horford has really struggled so far in this series, scoring 27 and 15 fantasy points. While I don’t love the matchup, Game 3 presents a nice opportunity to target him at perhaps a 5% ownership in tournaments. We know that Horford has 45 fantasy point upside and maybe some home cooking will get him going in this series.

Kent Bazemore
kent-bazemore-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $6,300
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.86 FP/Min: 0.79
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.8 31.9 4.1 31.5 3.7
FPPG (FD) 23.1 27.4 4.3 23.7 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 18.4 2.3 16.9 0.8

Bazemore burned a ton of people on Wednesday night. He had his worst game of the postseason and basically it was his worst game in months. He has otherwise played very well in the playoffs and we shouldn’t hold one bad outing against him. Look for him to bounce back in what is expected to be a close game.

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 PM

San Antonio Spurs Oklahoma City Thunder
sanantonionba Vegas Total 200.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 99.0
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 16 21 13 7 4 Opp. Season 4 1 1 4 3
Last 3 Weeks 6 20 26 5 5 Last 3 Weeks 19 2 9 4 3

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 67-15 — Road: 27-14 — Last 10: 6-4

The Spurs lost Game 2 and even though they had every right to be mad about the non-call on that last play, they still stole the ball and had a chance to win the game. They now head to Oklahoma City with the series tied at a game a piece. The Spurs are not in a situation that I would call must-win just yet, but they definitely need to pick up a split on the road. They are listed as 2-point favorites in Game 3 with the total set at 200 points. The Spurs have the second highest team total on the board. Danny Green and Manu Ginobili are both fine values at shooting guard, but I don’t consider either a building block in this slate.

Elite Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge
lamarcus-aldridge-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,700
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.18 FP/Min: 1.11
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.6 30.8 0.2 32.8 2.2
FPPG (FD) 32.3 36.2 4.0 45.5 13.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 22.8 0.8 26.0 4.0

Aldridge has been the guy to own in DFS so far in the first two games against the Thunder. He has scored a combined 108 fantasy points so far. While I’m not saying that you shouldn’t target him in Game 3, we can’t expect him to shoot 75% from the floor in the rest of the series. It’s promising that the Spurs are going to him as their main playmaker on offense, but it’s only a matter of time before he cools off.

Kawhi Leonard
kawhi-leonard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $9,200
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 1.26 FP/Min: 1.30
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 33.1 30.4 -2.7 28.4 -4.7
FPPG (FD) 37.5 38.2 0.7 36.6 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 22.7 0.4 24.4 2.1

Even though Aldridge has had the better series so far, Leonard is my favorite Spurs player to target in Game 3 (you can certainly use both). On the season, he is averaging 1.26 fantasy points per minute and with the Spurs needing a win on the road, he could end up playing 40 minutes. There are some decent values at small forward, but I really like the idea of pairing James with Leonard.

Secondary Plays

Tony Parker
tony-parker-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,700 Salary: $4,700
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.78 FP/Min: 1.00
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 27.5 23.7 -3.8 24.9 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 23.0 18.4 -4.6 19.9 -3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 18.9 -0.1 17.5 -1.4

Parker has been decent so far in this series, averaging 21 fantasy points in 27 minutes per game. That’s basically what we can expect from him moving forward, although I do think he provides a high ceiling for a player at his price point. I slightly prefer him over Dennis Schroder, whose minutes are not guaranteed coming off the bench.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 55-27 — Home: 32-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Thunder picked up a huge win in Game 2 in San Antonio to steal homecourt advantage in this series. They now have to hold serve at home in order to maintain that advantage. The Thunder are listed as 2-point underdogs in a game that I expect to come down to the wire. They are projected to score 99 points, which gives them the third highest team total on the board. With the game expected to stay close, we can finally target Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant with confidence.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,900 Salary: $10,800
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 1.39 FP/Min: 1.52
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.4 35.2 0.8 35.2 0.8
FPPG (FD) 48.8 48.9 0.2 50.1 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 28.3 30.0 1.7 31.8 3.4

Westbrook is the premier play at point guard in this slate. While I finally see him as an elite play in this series, it’s going to be tough to afford Westbrook, James, Leonard, Aldridge, Irving, and Millsap. We are going to have to make sacrifices somewhere. Westbrook is coming off of a 55 fantasy point outing in Game 2 and I expect another solid all-around game from him in Oklahoma City in Game 3.

Steven Adams
steven-adams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,900 Salary: $5,200
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 0.81 FP/Min: 0.72
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 25.2 28.7 3.5 33.5 8.3
FPPG (FD) 19.3 23.1 3.8 28.6 9.3
TO-Adj. Usage 10.4 10.4 0.0 10.6 0.2

The Thunder have given Adams the bulk of the minutes at center so far in this series. They seem to prefer his defense over what Enes Kanter brings on the offensive end of the floor. Adams has played well so far, scoring 22 and 34 fantasy points in the first two games. In order to afford all of these superstars, we are going to have to punt somewhere. One of those spots could be with Adams at center.

Secondary Plays

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $9,300
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.97 FP/Min: 1.30
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.8 38.1 2.3 38.6 2.8
FPPG (FD) 46.4 37.0 -9.5 39.1 -7.4
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 26.8 0.5 23.6 -2.7

Durant will end up being the lowest owned of the superstars in this slate. He has as much upside as anyone. While his floor may be lower than Westbrook’s or James’s, he is a terrific tournament play. The matchup against the Spurs isn’t great, but Durant can catch fire at any time.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious