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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, November 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-13 20:33:41

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Utah at Miami – 7:30 PM

Utah Miami
utahnba Vegas Total 182.0 miaminba Vegas Total 182.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 88.5 Team Proj. 93.5
Team Pace 94.70 Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 4 2 19 4 11 Opp. Season 6 4 14 1 1
Opp. Last 7 5 3 24 2 10 Opp. Last 7 13 6 23 6 1

Utah

The Jazz have had a tough opening schedule, but they have played well against some tough teams. They are 4-3 to start the season and they look poised to make a run at the playoffs this season. Utah draws another difficult matchup tonight against the Heat in what is expected to be a slow paced, low scoring affair. The total for this game is set at only 182 points.

The Heat have been one of the best defenses in the NBA this season. They are ranked second in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Possessions are going to be hard to come by tonight, as the Heat are the third slowest paced team and the Jazz are the slowest paced team in the NBA. The game is expected to stay close, but the Jazz have an implied team total of 88.5 points, which is one of the lowest that we have seen all season.

Even though the Jazz aren’t expected to do much offensively, it’s hard to completely fade a team on these short slates. There are only six teams in action tonight, which really limits our fantasy options. This has the feeling of a big game from Rudy Gobert. He doesn’t need to have a good matchup to be productive, as most of his fantasy production comes from peripheral stats anyway. He is listed as questionable, but if he plays, he should be right around the basket all night, as he and Hassan Whiteside don’t stray too far from the rim. Rodney Hood also deserves consideration here, although he is fouling at an alarming rate, which makes him a secondary play tonight. Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, and Alec Burks are secondary options as well.

Elite Plays

Rudy Gobert

FD: $7,700 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 33.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 11.5
FP/Game: 31.8 — FP/Min.: 0.95

Secondary Plays

Derrick Favors

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.5
FP/Game: 32.9 — FP/Min.: 1.10

Gordon Hayward

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 33.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.3
FP/Game: 24.2 — FP/Min.: 0.72

Alec Burks

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 27.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 22.3
FP/Game: 23.8 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Rodney Hood

FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 26.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.4
FP/Game: 21.5 — FP/Min.: 0.81

Miami

The Heat are off to a solid start this season and assuming they can stay healthy, they should be in the mix for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Heat face a very similar team tonight in the Jazz, who also like to slow the pace of the game down and win the defensive battle in the half-court.

The Jazz are the slowest paced team in the NBA this season, averaging only 94.7 possessions per game. When a team limits the number of possessions, it shrinks the game down and there are far fewer opportunities to score fantasy points, even though all games are played in 48 minutes. Thanks to their slow pace and their solid effort on the defensive end of the floor, the Jazz are ranked first in both points allowed per game and rebounding differential this season. The Heat are only projected to score 93.5 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board tonight.

Even though the Heat are 5-point favorites tonight, they are less appealing than the Jazz. It’s still a little early to completely trust the Defense vs. Position rankings, but the Jazz have dominated every position on the floor, with the exception of small forwards. The other issue is that the Heat have such a talented starting five that it becomes difficult for a single player to take over offensively. Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside are both in play thanks to the limited number of games on the schedule, but they are secondary options against the likes of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. Most people will flock to Whiteside over Gobert, but they have been putting up comparable numbers and Gobert is considerably cheaper tonight.

Dwyane Wade is a borderline elite play, but he will likely see his usual 30 minutes of action. That’s not to say that he can’t reach value in 30 minutes, but he doesn’t have the same upside as a player that can see 40 minutes on the floor. Beno Udrih is not expected to play tonight, which means Tyler Johnson and Justise Winslow will both soak up the extra minutes left in Mario Chalmers wake. They are two of the better value plays on the board tonight.

Elite Plays

Tyler Johnson – If Beno Udrih is inactive

FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,300
Min/Game: 19.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 13.4
FP/Game: 14.7 — FP/Min.: 0.74

Justise Winslow – If Beno Udrih is inactive

FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,000
Min/Game: 28.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 11.2
FP/Game: 15.6 — FP/Min.: 0.55

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside

FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 29.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 16.9
FP/Game: 36.2 — FP/Min.: 1.23

Chris Bosh

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.5
FP/Game: 35.0 — FP/Min.: 1.09

Dwyane Wade

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 28.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 27.7
FP/Game: 29.1 — FP/Min.: 1.01

Golden State at Minnesota – 8:00 PM

Golden State Minnesota
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 210.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Sprd -8.0 Vegas Sprd 8.0
Team Proj. 109.0 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 103.50 Team Pace 101.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Festus Ezeli Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 7 16 4 18 3 Opp. Season 19 10 2 8 17
Opp. Last 7 8 15 10 18 4 Opp. Last 7 18 10 6 7 13

Golden State

The Warriors are so good that it’s not even fair. They have gone on record of saying that sometimes they will just experiment with different lineups, plays, and shot attempts while on the floor, just because they can. They are 9-0 on the season and in my opinion, have a decent chance of reaching that elusive 70-win mark. Obviously, they would need to stay healthy and have a few breaks along the way, but they are involved in so many blowouts that their starters haven’t had the wear on their tires.

If this game took place last season, the Warriors may have been projected to score 1,200 points. The Wolves were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. They have vastly improved on defense this season, largely in part thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns and a defensive mindset from Kevin Garnett. Minnesota is ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. While that’s all well and good, defensive statistics don’t apply when teams face the Warriors. Vegas has Golden State projected to score 109 points in this matchup, which is easily the highest on the board tonight.

Stephen Curry continues to amaze. In 35 minutes last night against the Grizzlies, he had 28 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals. He used to be primarily a scorer, but now he is filling up all areas of the stat sheet. The Wolves have been tough on point guards this season, but I’ll take my chances on Curry in a matchup against Ricky Rubio. Outside of Curry, there aren’t any other must plays from Golden State tonight. Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes are borderline elite plays at their respective positions. Klay Thompson has not been paying off his expensive salary and should be avoided. Festus Ezeli should see his 20-24 minutes even with Andrew Bogut back, but it’s hard to rely on 20+ fantasy points from a player that sees such few minutes.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD: $10,700 — DK: $10,600
Min/Game: 33.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 28.2
FP/Game: 50.0 — FP/Min.: 1.48

Harrison Barnes

FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 29.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 16.2
FP/Game: 24.7 — FP/Min.: 0.83

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green

FD: $7,800 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 33.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 14.7
FP/Game: 31.0 — FP/Min.: 0.93

Andre Iguodala

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 27.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 12.1
FP/Game: 22.6 — FP/Min.: 0.81

Festus Ezeli

FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 20.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.0
FP/Game: 21.1 — FP/Min.: 1.04

Minnesota

The Wolves have played some good basketball this season and with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns on board, they should be good for years to come. They have their toughest test to date tonight, as they host the defending champion Warriors. The Wolves are listed as 8-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 210 points.

The only advantage in fantasy basketball that teams have when they face the Warriors is an increase in pace. Other than that, the Warriors present one of the toughest matchups in all of basketball. They are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Wolves do have an implied team total of 101 points, but we have seen the Warriors dominate opponents this season.

Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins were both late scratches on Tuesday night, but they are both expected to be back in the lineup tonight. Wiggins is officially out of his early season slump, as he has scored 38 and 44 fantasy points in his last two games. Wiggins is my favorite play here, especially on DraftKings where he is still listed at only $6,400. Rubio is more of a GPP play against Stephen Curry. Karl-Anthony Towns has been great on both ends of the floor and is worth a look in all league formats. The matchup against Festus Ezeli and Andrew Bogut isn’t all that appealing, but with three games on the schedule, he deserves consideration. Kevin Martin and Nemanja Bjelica are nice value plays off the bench.

Elite Plays

Andrew Wiggins

FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 32.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 25.9
FP/Game: 26.4 — FP/Min.: 0.82

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD: $7,100 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.3
FP/Game: 35.3 — FP/Min.: 1.22

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio

FD: $7,400 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 30.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.8
FP/Game: 34.4 — FP/Min.: 1.12

Kevin Martin

FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 29.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.5
FP/Game: 20.6 — FP/Min.: 0.71

Nemanja Bjelica

FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 28.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 10.4
FP/Game: 22.8 — FP/Min.: 0.79

L.A. Clippers at Phoenix – 10:30 PM

L.A. Clippers Phoenix
laclippersnba Vegas Total 209.5 phoenixnba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 105.8 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 101.10 Team Pace 103.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul Jamal Crawford Lance Stephenson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Brandon Knight P.J. Tucker Markieff Morris Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 24 14 27 6 8 Opp. Season 10 23 17 12 23
Opp. Last 7 30 23 29 1 20 Opp. Last 7 2 25 5 27 25

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers didn’t play well in last night’s game against the Mavericks, but we should have seen that coming, as the Mavericks had a little motivation after the DeAndre Jordan drama in the offseason. Los Angeles will look to bounce back tonight against the Suns in a game that has a total of 209.5 points. If I had to rank the three games in terms of fantasy appeal, this would lead the way, followed by the Warriors/Wolves game.

The Suns have been much better defensively this season, but they are still ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Clippers have an implied team total of 105.8 points, which is second only to the Warriors.

The only player that may be impacted by the back-to-back is Chris Paul, who has been dealing with a groin injury. At his price point, he is a tournament play tonight against the Suns. Blake Griffin is the second best fantasy option on the board tonight, next to Stephen Curry. He had a mediocre performance last night, but he is a strong play on such a short slate. DeAndre Jordan is one of my least favorite centers tonight. He is too expensive for his matchup against Tyson Chandler and the Suns, who have held opposing centers to the eighth fewest fantasy points this season. J.J. Redick is doubtful to play tonight. Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers, and Paul Pierce should all pick up a few extra minutes in his absence.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD: $10,200 — DK: $9,400
Min/Game: 35.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 26.5
FP/Game: 45.5 — FP/Min.: 1.28

Jamal Crawford

FD: $4,400 — DK: $3,500
Min/Game: 21.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.7
FP/Game: 14.5 — FP/Min.: 0.69

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul

FD: $9,100 — DK: $8,600
Min/Game: 32.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.1
FP/Game: 31.7 — FP/Min.: 0.98

DeAndre Jordan

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 10.3
FP/Game: 33.0 — FP/Min.: 1.03

Austin Rivers

FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,100
Min/Game: 21.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 14.7
FP/Game: 13.5 — FP/Min.: 0.64

Phoenix

The Suns are 3-4 to start the season. While they have improved on the defensive end of the floor, they have one of the worst offensive efficiencies in the NBA. Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe can both create their own shots, but they are missing that spot up shooter that clears the lane for those two to drive.

The Suns draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Clippers, who are ranked 18th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Suns have an implied team total of 103.8 points tonight, which is the third highest of the six teams in action tonight.

There are a number of different fantasy options from the Suns tonight in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. The talented backcourt duo of Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe are both borderline elite options. If I had to pick one, I would give the edge to Bledsoe. Not only does he have a higher turnover-adjusted usage rate, but he is facing his former team. We all love a little revenge narrative, right? Markieff Morris has not played well this season, but it’s a nice time to buy low on him. He is priced under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Tyson Chandler, P.J. Tucker, and T.J. Warren are secondary options.

Elite Plays

Eric Bledsoe

FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,000
Min/Game: 34.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 24.8
FP/Game: 37.9 — FP/Min.: 1.10

Markieff Morris

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 27.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 24.4
FP/Game: 23.4 — FP/Min.: 0.84

Secondary Plays

Brandon Knight

FD: $6,700 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 35.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.6
FP/Game: 30.5 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Tyson Chandler

FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 28.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 8.9
FP/Game: 22.5 — FP/Min.: 0.80

P.J. Tucker

FD: $4,100 — DK: $3,400
Min/Game: 23.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 8.0
FP/Game: 12.2 — FP/Min.: 0.51

T.J. Warren

FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,500
Min/Game: 21.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.5
FP/Game: 15.6 — FP/Min.: 0.74

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious