NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-12-17 19:57:50

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Sacramento at Charlotte

• Vegas Line – Charlotte -2, 196 Over/Under
• Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
• Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Taylor-McRoberts-Jefferson

Sacramento

The Kings and Bobcats both play at a slow pace and both rank in the bottom half of the league in points scored per game. The good news here is that the Kings have looked to push the ball more with IT2 and Gay in the starting lineup. The Cavs have solid DvP rankings thanks to their slow pace of play, but they don’t have great on ball defenders, at least not healthy ones.

Mike Malone has come out and said that Isaiah Thomas will lead the league in minutes this season. This is music to my ears as minutes are king in daily fantasy basketball. Another thing to note here is that the Rudy Gay trade has actually impacted Jason Thompson minutes more than Derrick Williams. They have been playing Williams at the 4 and he is a better option than Thompson as of right now.

• DeMarcus Cousins – I really like the matchup for Cousins. He’s always played well against Jefferson when Al was on the Jazz and Cousins has been on a tear of late. His price reflects his production, but he is the top overall option at Center and it’s not very close.

• Isaiah Thomas – Like I mentioned above, Malone is going to give Thomas all of the minutes he can handle going forward. Thomas’ price has come up across the board, but so has his upside. He’s scored over 30 FP’s in 8 straight games and I think he tops 35 FP’s tonight.

Charlotte

The Bobcats rank near the bottom of the league in both pace of play (94) and points scored per game (90). That said, they have played much better at home this season and Vegas has them projected to score 99 points tonight so there are a couple of viable fantasy options here. The Kings have been a below average team defensively and there aren’t any positions that you need to avoid against this defense.

Jeff Taylor is seeing major minutes with MKG out, but he just hasn’t posted big enough numbers to really consider him. Gerald Henderson on the other hand has consistently flown under the radar this season even though he consistently top 25 FP’s. I think he makes a solid sleeper play tonight.

• Kemba Walker – Kemba continues to play great at home and pretty average on the road. He is averaging more than 5 more FP’s at home than he is on the road. I like his matchup against Thomas tonight and I’m expecting both of these PG’s to go at each other and have big games offensively.

• Al Jefferson – Big Al is finally healthy and finally playing at a high level. He’s topped 30 fantasy points in 7 of his last 9 games and should have no problem reaching that mark tonight against Cousins who has never been known as a great defender.

Portland at Cleveland

• Vegas Line – Portland -4.5, 205 Over/Under
• Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
• Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Gee-Thompson-Bynum

Portland

The Blazers own the league’s best record and continue to pave their way through the NBA schedule. The Blazers play at an average pace (96) but are scoring the most points per game in the league (107). That’s incredible efficiency on offense. Vegas has this game as a close, high scoring game so continue to target the Blazers.

The Cavs have been below average against every position this season except for Center which makes sense considering they have both Bynum and Varejao defending opposing Centers. I like the matchup for LaMarcus Aldridge, but his price has risen to a level that’s close to Durant and I’d much rather take Durant if their prices are close.

• Damian Lillard – Lillard has been in a little slump, but he seemed to break out of it in the 4th quarter and OT against the Pistons the other night. Look for him to stay aggressive and post nice numbers against the Cavs who are ranked 25th against PG’s this season.

• Nicolas Batum – I also like Wesley Matthews in this one, but Batum gets the edge thanks to the Cavs ranking dead last against SF’s this season. Batum is one of those players that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He doesn’t rely on scoring for his fantasy production, but he does have a nice offensive game. He’s worth the price in this one.

Cleveland

How about this for a statistic. The Cavs play at the exact same pace as the Blazers, but average 13 less points per game. While that stat is alarming, Vegas expects this to be a close game with both teams projected to score in the hundreds. Even though Andrew Bynum has seen a small number of minutes over his last two games, I think he is in play here. He’s gotten off to slow starts and then has lost minutes to Varejao. Something tells me he comes out of the gates strong in this one and see his usual number of minutes.

The Blazers have been excellent at defending all positions except for PG and Center. I’ve already mentioned that I like Bynum as a value play, now let’s get to Kyrie Irving. I think him and Bynum are the only viable fantasy options here.

• Kyrie Irving – Irving has gotten off to a rough start shooting the ball this season, but he’s picked it up over the last week or so. I like his matchup tonight and the Cavs are going to need a monster game out of him tonight if they want to have any shot of knocking off the red hot Blazers.

L.A.Lakers at Memphis

• Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
• L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Meeks-Bryant-Johnson-Hill-Gasol
• Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Koufos

L.A.Lakers

The Lakers are still struggling to pick up wins, in fact they are still struggling to stay in games. Hopefully that can change tonight as they face a Grizzlies team that will be without both Conley and Gasol. Vegas has the Grizzlies favored by 3 and the total set at 193 points. Both of which aren’t bad from a fantasy perspective.

Even though the Lakers are expected to keep this one close, it’s really hard to find good fantasy options here. Kobe Bryant is still overpriced on the 3 major sites (FD, FD, DK), Pau Gasol is still nursing an injury, Jodie Meeks has been nowhere to be found, and the Lakers bench just isn’t very reliable. As crazy as it sounds, I think the safest play here is Jordan Hill.

• Jordan Hill – We will never know what D’Antoni is thinking with his rotations, but Hill is back in the starting lineup and coming off of a very solid game last night. Hopefully that will buy him some major minutes tonight. The Grizzlies have really struggled to defend PF’s this season and I like the price for Hill across the board.

Memphis

The Grizzlies are one of the slowest paced teams in the league, only averaging 92 possesions per 48 minutes. This will obviously take a toll on their offensive numbers. They are only averaging 93 points per game this season. That said, they are facing a Lakers team that is doing their best to keep up with the Sixers as the worst defense in the NBA. The Lakers rank in the bottom 3 against PG’s, SG’s, PF’s, and Centers.

Before we get into the picks, we have to note that Mike Conley has been ruled out of tonight’s game. Jerryd Bayless is expected to get the start and will be the top value play across the board tonight. Conley being out could open up some extra minutes for Tony Allen and Mike Miller as well.

• Jerryd Bayless – Bayless is close to minimum salary across the board and should be in all of your lineups on all of the sites across the board. He is one of the best backup PG’s in the NBA and has really stepped in nicely for Conley in the past. I expect 25+ FP’s out of him tonight.

• Zach Randolph – I still have some hope in Kosta Koufos, but his minutes have been so bad that I’m not going to trust him outside of a GPP play tonight. Randolph on the other hand makes a great cash game play. The Lakers have struggled to defend big men all season long and with Conley out, the offense may have to run through Z-Bo.

Oklahoma City at Denver

• Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -2.5, 208 Over/Under
• Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
• Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson

Oklahoma City

I’m a big fan of the NBA schedule tonight because we don’t have to factor in any blowouts. The Thunder travel to Denver tonight to take on the Nuggets in what is projected to be the highest scoring game of the night. Both of these teams like to push the pace and both of these teams should score in the hundres tonight.

The Nuggets have improved their defensive rankings from last season, but are still below average against most positions. While I love the matchup for Kevin Durant, he is priced a little too high compared to his teammates. I think both Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka make excellent plays here.

• Serge Ibaka – Ibaka is hands down one of my favorite plays tonight and my guess is that he isn’t going to be very highly owned. The Nuggets rank 29th against PF’s this season and Ibaka’s price has come down across the board. I’m expecting him to put up 18, 12, and 5 blocks and I’m not exaggerating.

• Russell Westbrook – Westbrook has a great matchup tonight. He has been filling up the stat sheet lately and seemingly getting close to a triple-double every night. He has a huge height advantage over Lawson and he should be able to get an open shot over him anytime that he wants it.

Denver

The Nuggets are also in a great spot tonight. The Thunder make it easy on us with their DvP rankings. They have been excellent at defending SF’s and Centers and below average at defending the rest of the positions. Even though Wilson Chandler has been given the green light offensively, he will likely expend the majority of his energy trying to defend Durant. I would typically say to target Kenneth Faried, but he’s not even guaranteed to play 20 minutes each night. That’s just too big of a risk for me to take. For that reason, there is really only one fantasy option that stands out here.

• Ty Lawson – Lawson has been in a slump lately, but I think he breaks out of it tonight. His price has come down to an affordable level and he is still their best player offensively. The Thunder are ranked 28th against PG’s this season and this is the perfect time to buy low on Lawson.

New Orleans at Golden State

• Vegas Line – Golden State -8, 207.5 Over/Under
• New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Aminu-Anderson-Smith
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Lee-Bogut

New Orleans

The Pelicans travel to Oakland to take on the Warriors in what is expected to be a very high scoring game. Both of these teams love to push the tempo and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them cover the over easily. The Pelicans have quite a few fantasy options here and I wouldn’t rule out any of the starting five, especially if Tyreke Evans is out again.

Eric Gordon and Jason Smith both make great value plays tonight. Their prices are cheap across the board and I could see them both covering their value pretty easily here. I like Ryan Anderson as a GPP play tonight, he can catch fire and can top 30 actual points in any matchup. My two favorite plays here though are Holiday and Aminu.

• Jrue Holiday – Holiday got off to a slow start this season, but he has really taken over this offense now that he has gotten more comfortable. He has topped 37 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and I think he can top that mark again tonight. The Warriors have not defended PG’s well this season and Holiday has been filling up the stat sheet.

• Al-Farouq Aminu – Aminu has been playing major minutes ever since Davis went out with his injury. He will continue to see big minutes tonight and will get a bump if Evans has to sit out as well. Aminu doesn’t have the most polished offensive game, but he crashes the boards and can get blocks and steals which really adds to his value. I’m thinking he’s in for another 30+ FP night.

Golden State

The Warriors are in a solid spot tonight. They always seem to play well at the home and the Pelicans like to push the pace almost as much as they do. The Warriors are projected as the highest scoring team tonight and once again, I think all five starters are in play.

Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut remain solid value plays. They both play big minutes and are very affordable across the board. Both should score around 25 FP’s tonight. Klay Thompson remains a great GPP play, he can catch fire and really light it up. For the price, I love him as a GPP play tonight.

• Stephen Curry – Even though Curry has a hefty price tag, he may be worth it. He has put up some monster fantasy numbers over the last couple of weeks and there isn’t anyone that can defend him. Look for Curry to top 25 points and 8 assists with the potential for much more.

• David Lee – Lee is always one of my favorite cash game plays because you can typically always count on him for production. He’s one of the more consistent players in the league. He has a nice matchup against Anderson and you can expect your typicaly 18 and 8 game out of him.