NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-12-03 22:16:48

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Orlando at Philadelphia

Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
Orlando Proj. Starters – Moore-Oladipo-Afflalo-Davis-Vucevic
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes

Orlando

The last time these two teams met, it was a fantasy gold mine. It seemed like every starter from both teams had a monster fantasy game and this one looks like it could be much of the same. Vegas has the total of tonight’s game set at 207 points with the Sixers as 3.5 point favorites. Both of these teams love to push the ball and there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around once again.

The Sixers own the league’s worst defense and are giving up an incredible 110 points per game. It has been a solid strategy all season long to stack the team that the Sixers face each night. Of course, by stack I only mean 2-3 players, but the strategy has worked well and I don’t see anything changing until the Sixers change their style of play. Before we get into the picks, it’s important to note that Nikola Vucevic hurt his ankle last night and could very well sit out tonight’s game. Bump up Maurice Harkless and Andrew Nicholson if he can’t go.

Victor Oladipo – Oladipo’s style of play matches this game perfectly. He is at his best in the open floor and should be able to create quite a few steals on the defensive side of the floor. Oladipo put up over 30 FP’s against them in their last meeting and I think he can top that number again tonight.

Glen Davis Moore – Both of these players were popular value picks last night and both of them flopped big time. When this happens, most DFS players get scared to take them again, but this is the perfect matchup for both of them to have nice bounce back games. You have to be able to put those bad games behind you. Don’t be afraid to take either of them tonight.

Philadelphia

The Sixers are the league’s fastest paced team averaging 101 possessions per 48 minutes. They love to push the ball and don’t care to defend. This is always great for the fantasy value of all player’s involved. Their matchup against the Magic tonight is a solid one as the Magic haven’t really defended any single position well. The Magic rank in the bottom 12 against every position except for Center.

Evan Turner – I think both Hawes and Young have some value, but they seem to switch off having big nights offensively, Turner on the other hand has been much more consistent. Turner is averaging over 35 FP’s per game and should play well in a fast-paced game against the Magic.

Michael Carter-Williams – MCW is playing at an All-Star level and really played well against this Magic team in their last meeting. He scored over 40 FP’s in that game and will have a great matchup against either Moore or Nelson, both of which are below average defenders.

Milwaukee at Boston

Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia
Boston Proj. Starters – Crawford-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Bass

Milwaukee

These two teams played each other the other night in Milwaukee and there were quite a few fantasy bright spots. Brandon Knight came close to a triple-double and John Henson really played well in his appearance in the starting lineup. It sounds like coach Larry Drew is going to stick with the same starting five tonight and bring Ersan Ilyasova off of the bench.

The Celtics have defended SF’s well this season, but have been either average or below average against the rest of the positions. Vegas has the Celtics favored by 7 points in this one, but I don’t see either team being able to pull away from the other.

Brandon Knight – Henson should still have some value, but having Ilyasova back may cut into his minutes. For that reason, Knight is my favorite play here. He is clearly the #1 PG in Milwaukee now and put up 20, 9, and 8 against this Celtics team the other night. He is still cheap across the board and is a nice value play with good upside.

Boston

The Celtics and Bucks both play at a slow pace, but neither of these teams have star players that get hurt by the slow pace of play. Both of these teams are filled with value plays that don’t need to have huge games for them to be attractive fantasy options.

The C’s matchup against the Bucks is a solid one. In their meeting the other night, Jared Sullinger and Jeff Green both played very well. The Bucks have really struggled to defend those two positions all season long ranking 23rd against SF’s and 28th against Centers. I’m going back to the well and recommending both of them again tonight.

Jeff Green – Green has really stepped up his game lately and he is finally becoming more aggressive offensively. He has topped 35 minutes in each of his last 5 games and should top that tonight as long as this one stays close. His price is about to take a big jump and now is the perfect time to get him before that happens.

Jared Sullinger – One of his biggest knocks is his ability to stay healthy and play big minutes, but since making his season debut he has been a consistent fantasy option that has shown that he can play big minutes. He put up over 35 FP’s against the Bucks the other night and should play well again tonight.

Denver at Brooklyn

Vegas Line – Denver -4.5, 205 Over/Under
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Taylor-Johnson-Teletovic-Garnett-Lopez

Denver

The Nuggets are one of the fastest paced teams in the league averaging over 100 possessions per 48 minutes. This is a very sneaky game to target tonight as Vegas has the total set at 204 points and the Nuggets are only favored by 2.

The Nets have defended SF’s well this season, but they will be without Paul Pierce so that DvP ranking doesn’t carry any value. I think all of the Nuggets are in play tonight as the Nets have really struggled to stop anyone this season. J.J. Hickson makes a nice GPP play, but I’m targeting the motor of this offense in my cash games.

Ty Lawson – The Nets are ranked 28th against opposing PG’s and this is a great situation for Lawson to post a solid stat line. Lawson’s price has come down a bit recently, but he should play well here against the weak combo of Livingston and Taylor. Look for Lawson to top 20 points and possibly top 10 assists as well.

Brooklyn

The Nets continue to struggle and will now be without Paul Pierce for the foreseeable future. The Nets will likely be without Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko, and Jason Terry as well tonight so they are extremely short handed and it opens up a few great fantasy options. The Pierce injury moves Alan Anderson into the starting lineup and he immediately becomes a great value play. Look for him to see 30+ minutes tonight against a below average defense.

It hasn’t been announced who will be the starting PG tonight, but I think whoever gets the nod also makes an intriguing play. Both Tyshawn Taylor and Shaun Livingston are close to minimum salary across the board and would have a favorable matchup. Keep your eye on the latest player news and don’t be afraid to take a chance on the starting PG here.

Detroit at Miami

Vegas Line – Miami -10.5, 200.5 Over/Under
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh

Detroit

The Pistons have a very tough matchup against the Heat tonight. They are double digit underdogs against one of the best defenses in the league. I always treat these type of games the same way, for me the risk of a blowout is too high for me to trust any of these players in cash games. I think that Brandon Jennings and Andre Drummond both make decent GPP plays, but are too risky for H2H and double-ups, especially considering that the Heat are ranked in the top 11 against every position.

Miami

The Heat are an extremely efficient team on both ends of the floor. They are only averaging 96 possessions per 48 minutes which is below the league average, yet they are the 6th highest scoring team in the league at 104 points per game. They have been playing shut down defense and their offense is clicking.

I will be avoiding both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade tonight because this game has a Heat blowout written all over it. If I am going to pay top dollar for a player, I want them to be in a close game and I want to be assured that they are going to see their usual allotment of minutes. Chris Bosh may have some value thanks to his depressed price, but again, I see him as more of a GPP play than a cash game play.

Phoenix at Memphis

Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Koufos

Phoenix

The Suns are facing the Grizzlies at the right time. The Grizzlies are missing their defensive anchor Marc Gasol and could be without Zach Randolph as well. The Grizzlies are usually in very low scoring games, but Vegas has the total of this game set at 191 points which is pretty high considering the two teams that are playing. This tells me that we shouldn’t be avoiding players on either team.

Even though the Suns are catching the Grizzlies at the right time, I don’t see any great fantasy options here. Goran Dragic has really been playing well, but Eric Bledsoe will now be inserted back into the starting lineup and I want to wait to see how that affects his fantasy value. Additionally, Bledsoe has a tough matchup against Tony Allen. Channing Frye would make an interesting value play, but his price has come up across the board and he’s a bit too expensive for me.

Memphis

The Grizzlies are without Marc Gasol and could very well be without Zach Randolph tonight as well. That would open up big minutes for both Kosta Koufos and Ed Davis. Check the injury news throughout the day and get one or both of them in your lineups if Randolph is out. The Suns have been very average defensively across the board. No singular position matchup stands out, but none of them should be avoided either.

Kosta Koufos – Koufos is in play even if Randolph suits up tonight. He has been playing at an extremely high level ever since Gasol went down with his injury. Koufos is averaging over 30 FP’s in his last 3 games and looks like a great play again tonight.