NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-04 21:43:26

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

San Antonio at Cleveland

• Vegas Line – San Antonio -6.5, 203 Over/Under
• San Antonio Proj. Starters – Mills-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
• Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Deng-Thompson-Hawes

San Antonio

The Spurs travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavs in what should be a fairly high scoring game. This is a solid matchup for the Spurs and the line is only set at 6.5 points so hopefully the Cavs will keep it close enough for the starters to see their usual allotment of minutes. The Cavs are giving up 101.2 points per game and are ranked 17th or worse against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s this season.

Tim Duncan is very much in play tonight. His price is affordable across the board and he should have no problem with Thompson and Hawes down low. Kawhi Leonard is also worth a look, he has topped 28 FP’s in each of his last 3 games and his price has yet to reflect his recent production. He will have a nice height advantage over the much smaller Jack.

• Tony Parker – Parker showed no signs of rust in his first game back from injury. He played 32 minutes and posted 22 points and 7 assists the other night against the Mavericks. He should play well again tonight as he faces Kyrie and the Cavs who have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season.

Cleveland

The Cavs have a tough matchup against the Spurs tonight. Even though this game features a total of 203 points, the Spurs are holding their opponents to 98 points per game this season which is the 6th lowest in the NBA. Not only that, but now that Kawhi Leonard is back in the lineup, it really bolsters their defense as a whole. On the season, the Spurs are ranked 16th or better against all positions on the floor with the exception of PG’s.

The Cavs are expected to have Dion Waiters back for tonight’s game, but it sounds like Anderson Varejao will sit out once again. This means Spencer Hawes will draw another start and should see major playing time again. He is a decent mid-range option at Center tonight.

• Kyrie Irving – Irving has really played well at home this season where he is averaging well over 35 FP’s per game. Kyrie has some of the most glaring home/road splits in the league, but luckily for us, he is playing at home. He also has a solid matchup against the Spurs who are ranked 23rd against PG’s this season in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Golden State at Indiana

• Vegas Line – Indiana -5, 196.5 Over/Under
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
• Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

Golden State

The Warriors travel to Indiana to take on the Pacers in what should be a very fun game to watch. Both of these teams have a top-10 defense though so I expect this one to be fairly low scoring. Even though the Pacers have had a few struggles defensively over the past couple of weeks, I still think this is a bad matchup for the Warriors. On the season, the Pacers are holding their opponents to a league-leading 91.2 points per game and are ranked 6th or better against all positions in terms of fantasy points allowed.

I don’t want to say that all Warriors’ players should be avoided tonight, but they are all site specific plays and should only be used if they are under-priced. Andrew Bogut salary is pretty cheap on a couple of sites. The same goes for Andre Iguodala who should see big minutes as he will be tasked with defending Paul George.

Indiana

In terms of potential fantasy production, the Pacers have a slightly better matchup than the Warriors. That said, the Warriors have held their own on the defensive end of the floor this season. The Warriors are only giving up 98.8 points per game this season and are ranked 18th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Much like the Warriors, I think the Pacers are better served as site specific plays tonight and should only be used if they are under-priced on the site that you are playing on. George Hill is very cheap on both FD and SS and makes a nice punt option at PG. Roy Hibbert is also cheap across the industry, but has been playing limited minutes in his last two games.

Miami at Houston

• Vegas Line – Pick ‘Em, 211 Over/Under
• Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
• Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard

Miami

LeBron James is coming off of a career high 61 points last night. I’m not sure many people saw that one coming, but with Dwyane Wade taking the night off to rest, this was LeBron’s game right from the beginning. Wade will likely be back in the starting lineup tonight, but nothing is official so he should be considered questionable until we hear an update.

The Heat’s matchup against the Rockets is a favorable one. The Rockets are giving up 101.9 points per game this season and are one of the faster paced teams in the league as they average over 98 possessions per game. The total of this game is set at 211 points so there should be plenty of points scored by both teams. Chris Bosh should be avoided tonight, he has a very tough matchup against Dwight Howard.

• LeBron James – After his 61 point outing last night, LeBron may have surpassed Kevin Durant as the top candidate for MVP this season. There is still a lot of basketball to be played, but LeBron is playing his best basketball of the season and should put on an encore performance tonight against the Rockets. Don’t be surprised to see LeBron post a triple-double. When LeBron is locked in, there isn’t anyone that can stop him.

Houston

The Rockets have a pretty tough matchup against a solid defensive team, but they are projected to score 105 points tonight and those points are going to come from somewhere. The Heat have been very solid defensively against PG’s and wing positions, but they have struggled to defend talented bigs as they just don’t have the size that other teams do. The way to beat the Heat is to play solid defense and pound the rock down low.

James Harden is in play here, but I’m not too sold on the matchup. He will likely be defended by a mixture of Wade, LeBron, and Battier who are all very capable defenders. I recommend avoiding Harden, especially on efficiency based sites like DS. Chandler Parsons could be in play, but I think there are better options in his price range. Dwight Howard makes the best play tonight, but he is dealing with a sore back and is listed as a game-time decision. If he plays, I like the upside in this matchup. If he sits, look for both Terrence Jones and Omer Asik to see a nice fantasy boost.

Philadelphia at Oklahoma City

• Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -20.5, 219 Over/Under
• Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Williams-Anderson-Young-Moultrie
• Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Butler-Durant-Ibaka-Adams

Philadelphia

I can’t remember the last time that there was a 20 point line in the NBA. I was very curious to see what the line would be before it opened and it didn’t disappoint. We’ve talked a lot about potential blowouts on fantasy production recently and it will certainly come into play again tonight. The only difference with this game is that this isn’t a potential blowout, this is as close to a sure thing as we will see all season.

While the Sixers will get demolished tonight, I think there star players will still see a good chunk of minutes. The Sixers have no reason not to give Michael Carter-Williams, Thaddeus Young, and Tony Wroten big minutes. The question is whether or not they will be able to produce enough FP’s in a tough matchup against the Thunder.

• Tony Wroten – Wroten is the safest play on the Sixers tonight. While a blowout is all but inevitable, Wroten will likely see around 30 minutes regardless of the outcome of this game. Wroten has topped 24 FP’s in 4 of his last 5 games and should see some nice garbage time production against the 2nd unit of the Thunder.

Oklahoma City

The Thunder may be the most difficult team to predict from an individual standpoint this season. They are 20 point favorites, but are playing the worst defense in the last 10 years. The upside is there, but I would be shocked to see Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka to play more than 30 minutes. I just don’t see that happening. Can those players cover their value in very limited playing time? My guess is as good as yours.

Of the three fantasy studs on the Thunder, I think Russell Westbrook is the best play. He is only playing around 30 minutes per game anyway and his price is reflective of that. I’m not sure I will be using him in cash games, but you can certainly make the case for it. In my opinion, your best bet here is to target the role players from the Thunder tonight. Caron Butler, Jeremy Lamb, Steven Adams, and Reggie Jackson all look like terrific punt options tonight.

L.A.Clippers at Phoenix

• Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -3, 219.5 Over/Under
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
• Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers and Suns game has the highest total of the night at 219.5 points. If you are looking for a game to mini-stack, this one is probably your best bet. Both of these teams love to push the pace and both teams struggle defensively. I see this game playing out a lot like the Suns and Hawks game the other night that was basically a track meet.

The Suns are giving up 102.3 points per game this season which is the 8th most in the NBA. If you look at their DvP rankings, you will see a lot of average rankings. Matt Barnes makes a nice punt play at SF as he is seeing extended playing time with both Redick and Crawford out. Blake Griffin looks like a great play as well, he is in the same price range as Anthony Davis and has a much higher floor at this point.

• Chris Paul – Paul is the top PG on the board tonight. While the Suns have been good against PG’s over the last 15 days, just ask Jeff Teague how good their defense is. Teague had a monster game against the Suns on Sunday and I think Paul can post similar numbers tonight. I always love taking CP3 in high scoring games that are expected to be close because he has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA.

• DeAndre Jordan – Jordan is on an incredible tear right now. He has topped 42 FP’s in 5 of his last 9 games and should have another nice outing tonight. In his first meeting with the Suns, he managed to grab 19 rebounds and block 2 shots. I’m expecting another monster double-double from him tonight. His price on DK is too cheap to pass up.

Phoenix

The Suns have a very nice matchup against the Clippers, but the DvP rankings don’t necessarily line up well for them. Goran Dragic is the best fantasy option on the Suns right now, but Paul and the Clippers have routinely shut down opposing PG’s all season long. The Clippers are ranked 2nd against PG’s this season. That said, Dragic is a very tough player that always seems to get it done in tough matchups. I think he is in play, but you can probably find some better options in his price range.

The other Suns are also tough to predict tonight. Gerald Green will have a nice height advantage over Collison, but Collison has been a great defender in his career. Channing Frye and Miles Plumlee are both playing inconsistent minutes and should probably be avoided even in a juicy matchup.

• Markieff Morris – Morris comes off the bench, but he plays starter’s minutes and has been on fire since the All-Star break. Morris has topped 30 FP’s in 5 of his last 6 games and has an excellent matchup against the Clippers who are ranked 24th against PF’s this season.

New Orleans at L.A.Lakers

• Vegas Line – L.A. Lakers -2.5, 211 Over/Under
• New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Ajinca
• L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Farmar-Meeks-Bazemore-Johnson-Gasol

New Orleans

The Pelicans have a terrific matchup tonight against the Lakers who are giving up 106.5 points per game this season and are ranked 27th or worse against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. Anthony Davis is going to be one of the toughest decisions that most DFS players have to face tonight. He is still dealing with a sore shoulder and he has not looked like himself in his past two games. However, the matchup doesn’t get any better and his price is depressed across the board. It’s such a tough decision to make, but after getting burned by him last night, I think I will be avoiding him in cash games tonight.

• Tyreke Evans – Tyreke was my play of the day yesterday and he did not disappoint. In fact, he played so well that he is my play of the day again tonight. The move to the starting lineup was long overdue and Evans should have his way with this awful defense tonight. He almost posted a triple-double last night and I think he can post another 40+ FP game tonight.

L.A.Lakers

The Lakers face a very slow paced Pelicans team. While the Pelicans are not great defensively, they love to slow the ball down. I think this hurts the Lakers’ value a little bit as a whole, but there are still a few solid plays here. Now that Al-Farouq Aminu is out of the starting lineup for the Pelicans, there aren’t any matchups that we need to avoid here. Jodie Meeks, Kent Bazemore, and Jordan Farmar all look like nice punt plays tonight if their prices are low enough on the site(s) that you are playing on.

• Wesley Johnson – You can argue that Johnson has a tough matchup against Davis tonight, but he had an equally tough matchup last night against Aldridge and he posted another 30+ FP game. Johnson is playing close to 40 minutes per night and his ability to rack up blocks and steals really helps his fantasy value. He is still under $5k on FD and DK and is close to a must play on both sites.

• Pau Gasol – Pau has really been playing well recently. He’s topped 35 FP’s in 5 straight games and is coming off of a huge game last night. He should have another big night against the Pelicans tonight. his price is affordable on most sites and I actually think he’s a much better play than Anthony Davis.