NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, May 8th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.0 | Implied Team Total | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Royce O’Neale | Jae Crowder | Rudy Gobert | Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | P.J. Tucker | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 14 | DvP | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 6 | 1 | 25 | 1 | |
Utah Jazz
Depending on what the fantasy sites decide to do, this may be our last two-game slate of the playoffs. I get the appeal of the single-game slate, but hate having so much overlap that most contests are decided by a 2v2 or even a 1v1. The Jazz were a disappointment in their two homes games. After pulling off the upset in Game 2, they got down early in both games at home and were unable to sustain any runs. They now face elimination on the road in Houston. Utah comes into the game as 12-point underdogs and have the lowest implied total on the board.
The Jazz will be without their starting point guard (Ricky Rubio) and their backup point guard (Dante Exum) tonight, which should open up minutes and usage in the offense. Donovan Mitchell is a safe bet to play 38-40 minutes. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in six of his last eight playoff games, which is an incredible number given the fact that he’s a rookie. Joe Ingles logged 40 minutes in Game 4 and could see a similar number tonight. With everyone looking to spend on Kevin Durant or going the value route with E’Twaun Moore, Ingles should be low owned in all formats. One of the biggest wildcards of the slate is Raul Neto. In the last two games, he has played 16 and 17 minutes, scoring 23 and 12 fantasy points. While the production has been a pleasant surprise, I have a hard time trusting him on the road in an elimination game.
Royce O’Neale had his best game of the series on Sunday, but I prefer targeting role players at home. Alec Burks is one of the top contrarian options of the slate. He struggled in Game 4, but had scored at least 19 fantasy points in each of the first three games of the series. With Rubio and Exum out, there’s a chance that he could see a series-high in minutes. Jae Crowder will be forced to play big minutes once again. The Jazz are short-handed and Derrick Favors has been non-existent in this series. Through four games, Crowder has averaged 31 minutes and 27 fantasy points in this series. His price is still affordable on both FanDuel ($5,000) and DraftKings ($5,100). There has been a lot of chatter about the play of Rudy Gobert, but he has still managed to score at least 31 fantasy points in each of the last three games. When it comes to FanDuel, we really only two options at center. Given the fact that Gobert is $1,600 cheaper than Clint Capela, I will be locking him into my cash game and tournament lineups.
Notable Injuries
Ricky Rubio (Out)
Dante Exum (Out)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.0 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -6.1 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | $8,900 | $7,700 | $16,200 | 33.2 | 6.9 | 33.4 | 4.3 | 0.99 | 25.8% | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| Joe Ingles | $6,300 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 25.7 | -1.1 | 31.4 | 3.7 | 0.82 | 15.7% | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| Royce O’Neale | $4,400 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 12.5 | 2.3 | 16.7 | 5.5 | 0.75 | 13.4% | 18 | 8 | 10 |
| Jae Crowder | $5,000 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 18.0 | 4.7 | 26.1 | 2.9 | 0.69 | 15.4% | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Rudy Gobert | $7,800 | $6,400 | $13,400 | 35.8 | -1.2 | 32.4 | 2.5 | 1.11 | 14.0% | 13 | 14 | 4 |
| Derrick Favors | $5,000 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 27.2 | -4.8 | 28.0 | -0.8 | 0.97 | 16.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alec Burks | $4,000 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 14.0 | -0.4 | 16.5 | -5.4 | 0.85 | 19.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Raul Neto | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 8.9 | -2.4 | 12.2 | -4.3 | 0.73 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Rudy Gobert (FD), Donovan Mitchell (DK), Alec Burks (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Rudy Gobert (DK), Donovan Mitchell (FD), Alec Burks (Cash), Royce O’Neale (DK)
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are one win away from advancing to the Western Conference Finals, which means Chris Paul is one win away from breaking his curse. It’s crazy to think that one of the best point guards of the last 20 years has never made it out of the second round of the playoffs. Even though the Jazz have been able to slow the pace of the games down, the Rockets have had no issues on the offensive end of the floor. Heading into Game 5, they have an implied total of 110 points, which is the second highest of the slate behind the Warriors.
Paul had his best game of the postseason on Sunday, scoring 58 points in Utah. After the game, he swore during a live TNT interview, which was comical. I’ve already crossed Raul Neto and Ian Clark off my list of potential targets, which means there are only three point guards to choose from — Paul, Stephen Curry, and Rajon Rondo. In terms of a raw projection, I’d rank them in the following order — Curry, Paul, Rondo. In terms of point-per-dollar upside, I’d rank them in the following order — Rondo, Paul, Curry. Between the two sites, I’ll likely end up with exposure to all three. If we throw out salaries, James Harden is right there with Anthony Davis as the top overall play of the slate. However, I prefer the balanced approach in a slate that features very little value. Eric Gordon has averaged 30 minutes per game this series. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points in two games and under 19 fantasy points in the other two. He’s a wildcard, but worth a look in tournaments.
Trevor Ariza has been quiet all series. While he’ll be lower owned than E’Twaun Moore and Andre Iguodala, I still prefer the other two. P.J. Tucker has scored at least 24 fantasy points in three of the first four games in this series. While I like the boost in playing time, he’s never been a productive per-minute DFS player. I prefer Tucker over Ariza, but like the two cheap small forwards from the other game a bit more. It pains me to say this, but Clint Capela has severely outplayed Rudy Gobert in this series. He has been a monster on both ends of the floor. The pick-and-roll with Harden is a thing of beauty. Through four games, Capela has averaged 44 fantasy points per game. He’s one of the top point-per-dollar plays at any position tonight on DraftKings ($7,500).
Notable Injuries
None
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -2.4 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $9,000 | $7,600 | $14,400 | 40.4 | -0.3 | 31.8 | 1.0 | 1.27 | 25.8% | 9 | 17 | 6 |
| James Harden | $12,300 | $10,400 | $21,400 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 35.4 | 0.0 | 1.50 | 33.8% | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Trevor Ariza | $4,400 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 23.7 | -5.3 | 33.9 | -0.7 | 0.70 | 13.4% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,400 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 17.2 | 0.6 | 27.8 | 1.3 | 0.62 | 9.3% | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| Clint Capela | $9,400 | $7,500 | $14,500 | 34.9 | 8.3 | 27.5 | 4.6 | 1.27 | 16.6% | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 25.4 | -4.4 | 31.2 | -0.6 | 0.81 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $3,000 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 16.2 | -3.8 | 25.6 | -6.9 | 0.63 | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, James Harden (GPP), Clint Capela (DK), Eric Gordon (GPP)
Secondary Plays – James Harden (Cash), Clint Capela (FD), Eric Gordon (Cash), Trevor Ariza (FD), P.J. Tucker
New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
| New Orleans Pelicans | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 227.0 |  | Vegas Total | 227.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.0 | Implied Team Total | 119.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Nikola Mirotic | Anthony Davis | Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Andre Iguodala | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 20 | 11 | 28 | 7 | DvP | 16 | 25 | 27 | 21 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 17 | 11 | 2 | 24 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 1 | |
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans dug themselves too big of a hole to climb out of in Game 4 and now face an elimination game on the road. With all four second round matchups potentially ending in five games or less, I feel a little disappointed. All we can hope is that the Conference Finals and the NBA Championship will be more competitive. The Pelicans come into tonight’s game as 11-point underdogs with an implied total of 108 points.
Rajon Rondo was in foul trouble for most of Game 4, which led to a bad fantasy outing. He only logged 31 minutes and could never really find a rhythm. I’m not overly concerned, as he scored 39, 56, and 47 fantasy points in the previous three games. On FanDuel, he’s my favorite point-per-dollar point guard. On DraftKings, I have him ranked slightly behind Chris Paul. Playoff Rondo is always on my radar, even though the Pelicans are large underdogs on the road. Jrue Holiday has been hit or miss in this series. He has topped 49 fantasy points two times and has scored less than 33 fantasy points in the other two games. This isn’t the hottest of takes, but I actually prefer Holiday over Donovan Mitchell tonight. E’Twaun Moore has played at least 35 minutes in back-to-back games and is the best value that small forward has to offer tonight.
With this being an elimination game on the road, I’m not expecting big minutes for any of the Pelicans’ bench players. While there is a chance the game could turn into a blowout, I will be fading the likes of Ian Clark, Darius Miller, and Solomon Hill. Nikola Mirotic has averaged 35 minutes and 37 fantasy points per game in the playoffs. At his price, he’s the top power forward on the board and arguably one of the top point-per-dollar plays at any position. If I could only have exposure to one superstar tonight and we threw out salaries, I would choose Anthony Davis over James Harden and Kevin Durant. Davis is going to play 40+ minutes and offers more upside than the other two when it comes to peripheral statistics. The problem with Davis is that he’s extremely expensive on FanDuel. His price is more palatable on DraftKings, but everyone’s price feels suppressed on DK.
Notable Injuries
None
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -3.7 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 9.6 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $8,000 | $7,900 | $14,200 | 27.0 | 14.0 | 26.2 | 9.0 | 1.03 | 18.3% | 11 | 12 | 17 |
| Jrue Holiday | $8,800 | $7,400 | $13,900 | 37.7 | 3.1 | 36.1 | 1.7 | 1.04 | 21.8% | 11 | 20 | 11 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,800 | $4,300 | $9,100 | 21.5 | -3.0 | 31.5 | -1.0 | 0.68 | 14.6% | 7 | 11 | 2 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $7,200 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 30.1 | 7.2 | 27.2 | 8.1 | 1.11 | 20.5% | 5 | 28 | 24 |
| Anthony Davis | $12,800 | $10,900 | $20,900 | 55.0 | 3.4 | 36.4 | 2.7 | 1.51 | 25.9% | 16 | 7 | 3 |
| Ian Clark | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 12.4 | 0.3 | 19.7 | 0.3 | 0.63 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Solomon Hill | $2,500 | $2,600 | $6,000 | 10.0 | -2.7 | 15.6 | -1.7 | 0.64 | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Darius Miller | $3,000 | $2,900 | $6,000 | 13.1 | -2.2 | 23.7 | -5.5 | 0.55 | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo, Nikola Mirotic, E’Twaun Moore, Jrue Holiday (GPP), Anthony Davis (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (Cash), Anthony Davis (Cash)
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors cruised to another win in Game 4. At the start of the playoffs, many were expected this to be the year where the Warriors and Cavaliers were taken out. At this point, it looks like we are headed for a fourth straight NBA Finals between these two teams. Only time will tell if the Rockets and Celtics (potentially the Sixers) will have something to say about that. The Warriors come into tonight’s game as 11-point favorites with an implied total of 119 points. They are the only team on the board that is projected to score more points than they averaged during the regular season.
Stephen Curry was awfully quiet in Game 4. He needed a big fourth quarter just to finish with 25 fantasy points. If anything, I’m actually encouraged by that outing, as he played a series-high 31 minutes and he sat the last three minutes of the game. If we set his minute projection at 34, we have to like his chances to reach and exceed value at this price point. During the regular season, he was consistently priced above $10,000. Klay Thompson is one of the top shooting guard targets on the board, but like always, he’s a better lineup filler than a lineup starter. I’m fine with Klay on my roster, but also fine if his salary doesn’t work itself out with my roster construction. Andre Iguodala has played well in this series, but relies on peripheral statistics for his fantasy production. This helps explain why his game log is so volatile. I’ll list him as an elite play, but I don’t hate the fade in tournaments given the fact that he’s going to be highly owned.
Kevin Durant has scored 60 fantasy points in two of the last three games. This may be a hot take, but I’m not treating him as a must play tonight. Small forward is arguably the deepest position of the slate. There are four decent value options (Tucker, Ariza, Iguodala, and Moore) and as mentioned above, I’m interested in Joe Ingles, who could push for 40 minutes. Durant is still an elite play, but I won’t be forcing him into my lineups. Draymond Green has scored at least 50 fantasy points in three of the four games in this series. He feels too expensive, but not when you look at his production in the playoffs. Kevon Looney is a viable punt in all formats, as he continues to play 20-22 minutes a game. I’d like to play David West here, but he has only logged seven and three minutes in the last two games.
Notable Injuries
None
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 113.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 119.0 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 5.5 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,500 | $8,300 | $17,700 | 44.1 | -6.8 | 32.0 | -2.8 | 1.38 | 28.1% | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,700 | $5,900 | $12,400 | 30.4 | -0.7 | 34.3 | 3.7 | 0.89 | 20.7% | 25 | 25 | 1 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,900 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 18.7 | 4.8 | 25.4 | 2.3 | 0.74 | 11.5% | 18 | 27 | 28 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,800 | $9,500 | $19,900 | 47.2 | 1.3 | 34.2 | 2.6 | 1.38 | 26.9% | 25 | 21 | 11 |
| Draymond Green | $9,000 | $8,100 | $15,900 | 36.0 | 9.4 | 32.7 | 4.3 | 1.10 | 16.7% | 14 | 19 | 1 |
| Kevon Looney | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 12.3 | 3.4 | 13.8 | 7.2 | 0.89 | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Quinn Cook | $3,500 | $2,700 | $6,000 | 16.8 | -4.3 | 22.4 | -6.1 | 0.75 | 16.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David West | $3,800 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 17.3 | -1.5 | 13.7 | -0.9 | 1.26 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |