NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 17th - Page Two
Denver at New Orleans – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -6, 207.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Mudiay-Harris-Gallinari-Faried-Hickson
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Gee-Davis-Asik
| Denver | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.20 | Team Pace | 101.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Emmanuel Mudiay | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | J.J. Hickson | Proj. Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Alonzo Gee | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 17 | 15 | 20 | 28 | Opp. Season | 21 | 30 | 6 | 17 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 23 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 21 | 10 | |
Denver
The Nuggets are 5-5 to start the season. Given their record from a year ago, they have to be pretty happy with their start. Tonight they head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans in what should be a gold mine for fantasy production. These are two of the fastest-paced teams and two of the worst defenses in the NBA.
- New Orleans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.4 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.8 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 210.6 (26 of 30)
The Pelicans just continue to get obliterated on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Despite all of that, the Nuggets are only projected to score 100.8 points tonight. That may seem low, but it is 2.5 points higher than their average on the season.
The biggest issue with the Nuggets (from a fantasy perspective) this season has been an inconsistent rotation. Danilo Gallinari is the only player to average more than 31 minutes per game. Speaking of Gallinari, he makes a strong play tonight in what should be a shootout in New Orleans. Emmanuel Mudiay is also a borderline elite play, as the Pelicans are ranked dead last against point guards this season. Mudiay is still a rookie playing on the road though, so temper expectations. Kenneth Faried is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to play, give a boost to J.J. Hickson and Will Barton.
Elite Plays
Danilo Gallinari
FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 33.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.1
FP/Game: 27.4 — FP/Min.: 0.82
Secondary Plays
Emmanuel Mudiay
FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 30.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.6
FP/Game: 25.6 — FP/Min.: 0.84
J.J. Hickson
Bump him up to an elite play if Kenneth Faried is out.
FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 19.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.3
FP/Game: 18.1 — FP/Min.: 0.91
New Orleans
The Pelicans were happy to have Anthony Davis back in the lineup on Sunday. Even though they fell short against the Knicks, Davis put on a show with 36 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 blocks. It’s safe to say that he has fully recovered from his hip injury.
- Denver Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.6 (21 of 30)
The Pelicans draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Pelicans are projected to score 106.8 points tonight, which is the second highest implied team total on the board.
Anthony Davis is in that “fade at your own risk” category tonight. Russell Westbrook was a perfect example last night. When superstars are relied on to carry their teams, they can have massive fantasy outings. Davis should eat up the Nuggets’ weak interior on both ends of the floor. Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson are both worth a look tonight, although they are both a little too expensive, as their salaries reflect their production from when Davis was out for those few games. Jrue Holiday can continue to be avoided, as he is still playing less than 25 minutes per game.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis
FD: $10,900 — DK: $10,800
Min/Game: 36.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 25.2
FP/Game: 45.0 — FP/Min.: 1.25
Secondary Plays
Eric Gordon
FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 35.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.3
FP/Game: 27.3 — FP/Min.: 0.76
Ryan Anderson
FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 31.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.9
FP/Game: 26.2 — FP/Min.: 0.84
Toronto at Golden State – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -9, 207.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Scola-Valanciunas
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Ezeli
| Toronto | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.30 | Team Pace | 102.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Festus Ezeli | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 17 | Opp. Season | 5 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 24 | |
Toronto
The Raptors are 7-4 to start the season, yet they are currently fifth in the Eastern Conference standings. The East is slowly getting better, but they obviously lack the depth of the West. The Raptors head to Oakland tonight to take on the undefeated Warriors. Vegas is giving Toronto very little chance, as they are 9-point underdogs on the road.
- Golden State Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 94.1 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.3 (9 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.8 (10 of 30)
Even though the Warriors play at an extremely fast pace, they are still a bad team to target players against. On the season, they are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. To make matters worse, the Warriors have won by an average of 16.3 points per game this season, which means they are routinely blowing teams out. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the top targets here, but I see them as secondary options tonight in a potential blowout.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Kyle Lowry
FD: $8,600 — DK: $8,200
Min/Game: 34.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.6
FP/Game: 38.5 — FP/Min.: 1.11
DeMar DeRozan
FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 35.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 24.0
FP/Game: 33.6 — FP/Min.: 0.95
Golden State
Is it just me or does it feel like a college team facing a high school team every time the Warriors are on the floor. They are blowing teams (good teams) out left and right. They are 9-point favorites tonight at home against the Raptors. It should be another fun night of basketball at Oracle Arena.
- Toronto Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.1 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 6.0 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.6 (8 of 30)
The Raptors have slowed their pace of play this season, averaging only 98.3 possessions per game. Their defense has improved thanks to this, as they are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. What those numbers fail to point out is that the Warriors are not your average basketball team. Golden State has an implied team total of 108.3 points tonight, which is the highest on the board.
The Stephen Curry vs. Anthony Davis debate is a good one. Curry has been much better in the early part of the season, but I’d argue that Davis has the much better matchup of the two tonight. Davis also plays power forward, which can be a tougher position to fill than point guard. Curry is obviously still an elite play, but if I had to choose one, I’d give the edge to Davis. Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes round out the fantasy options for the Warriors.
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry
FD: $11,000 — DK: $10,700
Min/Game: 35.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 28.9
FP/Game: 50.3 — FP/Min.: 1.43
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green
FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 33.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.5
FP/Game: 35.4 — FP/Min.: 1.04
Harrison Barnes
FD: $5,300 — DK: $5,300
Min/Game: 30.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.0
FP/Game: 23.9 — FP/Min.: 0.78