NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 17th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Milwaukee at Washington – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -4.5, 201 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Monroe
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Porter-Humphries-Gortat
| Milwaukee | Washington | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 201.0 | | Vegas Total | 201.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.60 | Team Pace | 104.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Greg Monroe | Proj. Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Otto Porter | Kris Humphries | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 28 | 30 | 19 | 14 | Opp. Season | 9 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 22 | 15 | 15 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 20 | 18 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks got off to a slow start this season, but they have turned it around and have fought their way back to .500 (5-5). Tonight they head to Washington to take on the Wizards in a battle between two future playoff teams. The Bucks will be without Jabari Parker tonight. He sprained his right foot and will be out for at least three games. Jonny O’Bryant will likely draw the start at power forward, but he hasn’t done much with his spot starts this season.
- Washington Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.9 (27 of 30)
The biggest change from the Wizards this season has been their play on the defensive end of the floor. They had a suffocating defense last year, yet they are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Some of that has to do with an increase in pace, but a lot of it is just effort. The Bucks may not have the highest implied team total on the board (98.3 points), but they should see a boost in possessions tonight.
Michael Carter-Williams played a season-high 40 minutes in Saturday night’s game against the Cavaliers. It appears that he is over his ankle injury, but he will not be able to escape the wrath of Jason Kidd’s rotation. With Jerryd Bayless and Greivis Vasquez playing big roles off the bench, it’s hard to trust MCW in anything other than a tournament. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are both strong plays at shooting guard and small forward. Not only do they see a small boost with Jabari Parker out, but the Wizards are ranked 28th and 30th in fantasy points allowed to their positions. Greg Monroe appears to have a decent matchup on paper, but Marcin Gortat has been one of the toughest low post defenders in the NBA over the last few years. I expect the Wizards to be ranked inside the top ten in fantasy points allowed to centers by the end of the season.
Elite Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo
FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 35.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.4
FP/Game: 31.1 — FP/Min.: 0.87
Khris Middleton
FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 37.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.7
FP/Game: 23.5 — FP/Min.: 0.63
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe
FD: $8,200 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 34.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.0
FP/Game: 37.4 — FP/Min.: 1.10
Michael Carter-Williams
FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 32.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.0
FP/Game: 30.8 — FP/Min.: 0.94
Jerryd Bayless
FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 31.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.4
FP/Game: 21.9 — FP/Min.: 0.70
Washington
The Wizards are 4-4 on the season, but it seems like they are 0-8. They have not played up to the level that we have gotten accustomed to seeing, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Bradley Beal has missed each of the last two games with a left shoulder injury. He did not practice on Monday and is listed as questionable to play tonight. If he is forced to miss another game, John Wall, Garrett Temple, and Otto Porter would all see a fantasy boost in his absence.
- Milwaukee Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.7 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.3 (16 of 30)
The Bucks have also taken a step back defensively, which is a bit surprising considering how much length they have. Each member of the starting lineup is at least 6’6” tall. Despite their length, the Bucks are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Wizards have an implied team total of 102.8 points tonight, which is tied for the third highest on the board.
The major question tonight is whether or not Bradley Beal will play. If he is forced to sit out again, John Wall and Otto Porter both become elite plays at their respective positions. If Beal is able to play, he and Wall would both be borderline elite plays, while Porter would drop down to a secondary option at small forward. I also have a sneaky suspicion that Marcin Gortat will play well tonight. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points (DK scoring) in three of his last four games.
Elite Plays
John Wall
FD: $9,200 — DK: $9,000
Min/Game: 33.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 23.2
FP/Game: 37.6 — FP/Min.: 1.12
Secondary Plays
Brad Beal
If he is able to return from his shoulder injury.
FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 34.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.1
FP/Game: 31.6 — FP/Min.: 0.91
Marcin Gortat
FD: $6,000 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 27.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.1
FP/Game: 23.7 — FP/Min.: 0.85
Otto Porter
Bump him up to an elite play if Beal is ruled out.
FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 33.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 13.5
FP/Game: 25.5 — FP/Min.: 0.76
Charlotte at New York – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -1, 196 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Batum-Williams-Zeller-Jefferson
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
| Charlotte | New York | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 196.0 | | Vegas Total | 196.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.70 | Team Pace | 98.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj. Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 8 | Opp. Season | 8 | 13 | 12 | 29 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 28 | 27 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets have been quietly playing some good basketball recently. They have won three of their last four games and have climbed back to .500 (5-5) on the season. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. P.J. Hairston is doubtful to play tonight, which means Marvin Williams will slide over and start at small forward. Cody Zeller will draw the start at power forward.
- New York Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.5 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.8 (7 of 30)
I didn’t expect to say this at all this season, but the Knicks have actually been playing good defense. They play at a slow pace and are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Hornets have a low implied team total of 98.5 points, but that’s not too far off from their season average of 101.4. This isn’t the best matchup on the board, but it’s not one that we have to avoid either.
Nicolas Batum has really fit in well with his new team. In 34.2 minutes per game, he is averaging 31.6 fantasy points with a turnover-adjusted usage rate of 18.7. He has played at least 35 minutes and has scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last four games. Unlike last season, Batum has become a very consistent fantasy option. Kemba Walker and Marvin Williams should both log heavy minutes tonight, although neither player stands out as an elite play. I will continue to avoid Al Jefferson, as his minutes just aren’t there this season. Despite averaging a fantasy point per minute, he is only averaging 26.9 minutes per game.
Elite Plays
Nicolas Batum
FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 34.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.7
FP/Game: 31.6 — FP/Min.: 0.92
Secondary Plays
Kemba Walker
FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 32.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.0
FP/Game: 29.3 — FP/Min.: 0.91
Marvin Williams
FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 32.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 12.2
FP/Game: 25.1 — FP/Min.: 0.77
Cody Zeller
FD: $4,100 — DK: $3,500
Min/Game: 22.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 13.6
FP/Game: 17.3 — FP/Min.: 0.78
New York
The Knicks have been an exciting team to watch this season. They don’t have a ton of talent surrounding Carmelo Anthony, but they are playing hard, which is a complete 180 from last season. With a win tonight, the Knicks would get back to .500 (6-6) on the season.
- Charlotte Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.9 (15 of 30)
This is expected to be one of the slowest paced games on the schedule tonight. Both teams have averaged less than 99 possessions per game, which is below the league average. The Hornets have been mediocre defensively, ranking between 12th and 21st in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Knicks have an implied team total of 97.5 points, which is right around their average for the season.
Carmelo Anthony has been sharp over his last four games, averaging 27 points, seven rebounds, and three assists per game. While the Hornets haven’t been elite against small forwards, he will likely match up against Nicolas Batum, who is a very good on-ball defender. At his price point, Anthony is more of a secondary play tonight. Kristaps Porzingis has played well this season, but is still seeing limited playing time. Arron Afflalo is a decent punt at shooting guard tonight, as he could see up to 30 minutes at a very cheap price point.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Carmelo Anthony
FD: $9,600 — DK: $8,500
Min/Game: 34.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.8
FP/Game: 38.3 — FP/Min.: 1.11
Kristaps Porzingis
FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 24.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.5
FP/Game: 24.7 — FP/Min.: 1.00
Arron Afflalo
FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 28.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.9
FP/Game: 17.3 — FP/Min.: 0.62
Atlanta at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -3.5, 197.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Schroder-Korver-Sefolosha-Millsap-Horford
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Johnson-Hollis-Jefferson-Young-Lopez
| Atlanta | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 197.5 | | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.10 | Team Pace | 97.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Dennis Schroder | Kyle Korver | Thabo Sefolosha | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj. Starter | Jarrett Jack | Joe Johnson | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 25 | Opp. Season | 13 | 25 | 7 | 16 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 28 | 5 | 13 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 30 | 2 | 5 | 26 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks are looking to end their two-game slide tonight with a win over the Nets in Brooklyn. They will have to do it without Jeff Teague and Kent Bazemore, as both players have already been ruled out. Dennis Schroder and Thabo Sefolosha are expected to draw spot starts in their absence.
- Brooklyn Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.7 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.1 (24 of 30)
To no one’s surprise, the Nets have not been good defensively this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Despite missing two of their starters, the Hawks still have an implied team total of 100.5 points, which is the sixth highest of the 14 teams in action tonight.
With Jeff Teague out, Dennis Schroder becomes close to a must-play in cash games. He is priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he should see 30+ minutes of action against a bad Nets’ defense. Kyle Korver and Thabo Sefolosha are both interesting plays on the wing. Neither player has been particularly good this season, but they will both have an increased role tonight with Kent Bazemore out. Paul Millsap and Al Horford should both see a boost in usage tonight and I don’t mind either of their matchups against Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez.
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap
FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 34.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.1
FP/Game: 37.5 — FP/Min.: 1.09
Dennis Schroder
FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 23.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.9
FP/Game: 21.4 — FP/Min.: 0.90
Secondary Plays
Al Horford
FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 31.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.2
FP/Game: 34.9 — FP/Min.: 1.10
Kyle Korver
FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,400
Min/Game: 31.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 10.8
FP/Game: 18.8 — FP/Min.: 0.59
Thabo Sefolosha
FD: $3,900 — DK: $3,500
Min/Game: 20.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 11.1
FP/Game: 17.5 — FP/Min.: 0.85
Brooklyn
The Nets are a paltry 1-9 on the season with an average point differential of -8.9. They aren’t the most talented team in the NBA, but they certainly aren’t the least talented either. The Nets are expected to keep tonight’s game close, although they are listed as 3.5-point underdogs at home.
- Atlanta Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.4 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.3 (20 of 30)
The Hawks haven’t been great defensively, but they haven’t exactly had to be. They are currently ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. I don’t expect that to continue though, as they Hawks have always been solid defensively under head coach Mike Budenholzer. The Nets are only projected to score 97 points tonight, which is the third lowest implied team total on the board.
Fantasy options have been few and far between for the Nets this season. Jarrett Jack has come alive in the last two games, but it’s hard to justify taking him in cash games with all of the options at point guard. The Hawks are ranked dead last against centers this season, but that doesn’t mean that we should give the green light to Brook Lopez. Both players deserve consideration (especially on DraftKings), but the Nets have such a low team total tonight that I hesitate listing them as elite options.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez
Borderline elite play on DraftKings.
FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 34.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.6
FP/Game: 34.5 — FP/Min.: 1.00
Jarrett Jack
Borderline elite play on DraftKings.
FD: $6,400 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 32.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.8
FP/Game: 30.2 — FP/Min.: 0.92
Cleveland at Detroit – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Williams-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Morris-Ilyasova-Drummond
| Cleveland | Detroit | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 193.5 | | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 94.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.10 | Team Pace | 98.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Mo Williams | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Ersan Ilyasova | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 22 | 3 | 26 | 1 | Opp. Season | 6 | 16 | 18 | 5 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 30 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 25 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are coming off of a loss against the Bucks, but they have had a nice three-day break and they should be ready to get back at it tonight against the Pistons. The Cavaliers will be at full-strength tonight, with the exceptions of Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert, who have both been out all season.
- Detroit Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.5 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 4.9 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 188.2 (6 of 30)
The Pistons have struggled recently, but they have been one of the toughest defenses in the NBA through their first ten games of the season. They are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Cavaliers have an implied team total of 99.3 points, which is 3.5 points lower than their average on the season.
LeBron James deserves consideration tonight because, well, he is LeBron James. Great analysis, I know. Despite the talk of James being on the downside of his career, he is actually averaging more fantasy points per game than he has since the 2012-13 season. I’m not sure that I want to pay up for James in a slow-paced game, but I wouldn’t knock you if you did. Kevin Love has the best matchup of the five starters, as he will lock horns with Ersan Ilyasova. The Pistons have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to power forwards this season and Love has been much more involved offensively this season with a turnover-adjusted usage rate of 20.7. Detroit has been tough on point guard this season and rather than targeting Mo Williams in a bad matchup, I’ll be looking elsewhere.
Elite Plays
Kevin Love
FD: $7,800 — DK: $8,000
Min/Game: 34.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.7
FP/Game: 35.8 — FP/Min.: 1.03
Secondary Plays
LeBron James
FD: $10,200 — DK: $10,100
Min/Game: 36.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 30.2
FP/Game: 46.9 — FP/Min.: 1.29
Detroit
The Pistons have lost four games in a row, after getting out to an impressive 5-1 start. They will look to avoid going below .500 for the first time all season. They will have their hands full tonight against the Cavaliers, who are clearly the creme of the crop in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are 5-point underdogs tonight at home.
- Cleveland Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.9 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 5.4 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.2 (4 of 30)
The Cavaliers are one of my favorite teams to fade opponents against. On the season, Cleveland is ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pistons have an implied team total of only 94.3 points, which is tied for the lowest on the schedule tonight.
Despite the bad matchup for the Cavaliers as a whole, it’s hard to ignore what Andre Drummond has been able to do recently. He has scored at least 12 points and has secured at least 15 rebounds in each of his last eight games. He has been able to stay out of foul trouble this season and he is clearly excelling in the Dwight Howard role in Stan Van Gundy’s offense. He remains an elite play tonight. Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both viable secondary options. Both players have averaged at least 37 minutes and 22 fantasy points per game this season.
Elite Plays
Andre Drummond
FD: $9,800 — DK: $9,900
Min/Game: 37.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.3
FP/Game: 46.6 — FP/Min.: 1.25
Secondary Plays
Marcus Morris
FD: $6,100 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 37.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.5
FP/Game: 27.5 — FP/Min.: 0.73
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 37.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.4
FP/Game: 22.3 — FP/Min.: 0.59
Minnesota at Miami – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -8.5, 197 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Wiggins-Prince-Garnett-Towns
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside
| Minnesota | Miami | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 197.0 | | Vegas Total | 197.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.10 | Team Pace | 95.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | Tayshaun Prince | Kevin Garnett | Karl-Anthony Towns | Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 2 | 22 | 7 | 11 | Opp. Season | 12 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 16 | 29 | 10 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 24 | 17 | 25 | 6 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves are looking to snap their four-game skid tonight against the Heat. They are hoping to have Ricky Rubio back in the lineup, but he is still questionable for tonight’s game. This is a difficult matchup for the Wolves, as they are 8.5-point underdogs tonight on the road.
- Miami Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 90.2 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.5 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.2 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 179.4 (3 of 30)
The Heat are one of the toughest matchups in fantasy basketball. They play at the third slowest pace of any team, averaging only 95.6 possessions per game. Miami is also ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Wolves are only projected to score 94.3 points tonight, which is tied for the lowest implied team total on the board.
If Ricky Rubio is out tonight, Zach LaVine would draw another start at point guard. He has really played well this season and would be worth a look if Rubio is unable to suit up. Outside of LaVine, there really aren’t any plays that stand out on the Wolves tonight. Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Nemanja Bjelica all find themselves in difficult matchups. They are all secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins
FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 34.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 24.2
FP/Game: 26.7 — FP/Min.: 0.78
Karl-Anthony Towns
FD: $6,800 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 29.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.7
FP/Game: 32.6 — FP/Min.: 1.12
Zach LaVine
Borderline elite play if Ricky Rubio is out.
FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,300
Min/Game: 22.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 23.6
FP/Game: 22.4 — FP/Min.: 0.98
Nemanja Bjelica
FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 28.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 10.4
FP/Game: 20.5 — FP/Min.: 0.72
Miami
The Heat have won three games in a row and now sit at 6-3 on the season. They have a good chance of improving that record tonight against the Wolves at home. The Heat are 8.5-point favorites in what should be one of the slowest paced games on the schedule tonight.
- Minnesota Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.3 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.5 (12 of 30)
The Wolves play at an average pace and have a below-average defense. That leads to a slightly favorable matchup for the Heat tonight, as Minnesota is ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 19th in defensive efficiency. The Heat have an implied team total of 102.8 points tonight, which is six points higher than their average on the season. We can safely give a boost to the Heat team as a whole.
Dwyane Wade and Gerald Green are both expected to play tonight, which really muddies the minutes for the Heat backcourt. Wade will obviously get his 30 minutes, but the rest of the playing time will now be split between Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson, Beno Udrih, and Gerald Green. For now, Wade is the only fantasy option of note. Hassan Whiteside leads the NBA in blocks per game at 4.0 and he has become a viable fantasy option in all league formats. The Wolves have been good against centers, but Whiteside isn’t a player that needs a favorable matchup to perform well. Chris Bosh is worth a look at power forward, as the Wolves are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to the position.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside
FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 29.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.7
FP/Game: 36.2 — FP/Min.: 1.23
Chris Bosh
Borderline elite play on DraftKings.
FD: $8,200 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 32.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.0
FP/Game: 36.2 — FP/Min.: 1.12
Dwyane Wade
Borderline elite play on DraftKings.
FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 28.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.6
FP/Game: 29.1 — FP/Min.: 1.01
