NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-19 03:49:29

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		209.0					Vegas Total		209.0
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Implied Team Total		100.5					Implied Team Total		108.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.4
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner		Projected Starters	George Hill	Rodney Hood	LeBron James	Jeff Green	Kevin Love
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	25	22	29	17	19		DvP	6	6	9	13	24
DRPM Rat.	22	29	21	13	15		DRPM Rat.	19	1	21	5	18

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers shocked the world with a Game 1 win over the Cavaliers. Well, I suppose shocked the world is a bit excessive, but before that game, the Cavaliers were the clear betting favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. Road teams that take Game 1 tend to have a letdown performance in Game 2, but that wasn’t the case with the Pelicans last night. We know this is a favorable matchup for Indiana, but we’ve seen LeBron James-led teams overcome adversity time and time again in the playoffs. The Pacers come into the game as eight-point underdogs and have the lowest implied total on the board.

There are a handful of players that we can expect to see a boost in playing time during the playoffs. Even though Darren Collison isn’t one of them, he should still play close to 30 minutes against the Cavaliers, who were ranked 22nd in efficiency against point guards during the regular season. Collison is affordable across the industry and is one of the better value plays at point guard. Victor Oladipo put the Pacers on his back in Game 1, finishing with 56 fantasy points. The Cavaliers don’t have any good wing defenders at this point. Even LeBron James struggled defensively this season. Oladipo is worth a look if you think this game stays close and he makes a good fade if you think this game turns into a blowout.

Bojan Bogdanovic is not a player that garners ownership often in DFS. After scoring 32 fantasy points in 39 minutes of action in Game 1, he could end up being the chalk at small forward, especially on FanDuel where we have to roster two of them. He gets labeled as a shooter, but he actually provides more peripheral stats than most people realize. Lance Stephenson played well in the first half of Game 1 and then disappeared in the second half. That’s what you sign up for when you roster Stephenson. He’s my favorite bench player from Indiana and could see some garbage time, but is best suited as a tournament play given his wide range of potential outcomes.

Thaddeus Young didn’t have a great first game of the series, but he’s a safe bet to play 32-34 minutes in an exploitable matchup against the Cavaliers. He’s not a core play by any means, but he’s a viable pivot off of the more popular Carmelo Anthony. Myles Turner is volatile, but grades out as the best value play at center tonight, especially on FanDuel ($5,500). It’s a tough decision between Turner and Clint Capela on FanDuel, so it will come down to roster construction.

Notable Injuries

None

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -5.1 (5 of 6)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo (GPP), Bojan Bogdanovic (FD), Myles Turner (FD)

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (Cash), Bojan Bogdanovic (DK), Myles Turner (DK), Lance Stephenson, Thaddeus Young (GPP)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are in desperate need of a win tonight. I wouldn’t count them out completely with a loss, but it would sure be a tough deficit to overcome. I get the feeling that they will come out ready to play in Game 2. It’s always hard to predict blowouts in any sport, but of the three games on the schedule tonight, this one has the highest probability in my opinion (and yes, I know the spread is higher in the Rockets game). If Cleveland comes out firing, the Pacers could be content with a split and start looking forward to Game 3. I could be dead wrong, but either way, the Cavaliers are the preferred team to target in this game.

George Hill was originally listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but he has been upgraded to probable. He only logged 19 minutes in the opener, but they all came in the first 28 minutes of the game. If he plays better, he could easily play minutes in the upper 20s. Hill is an intriguing tournament play tonight, especially at a price of only $4,000 on FanDuel. I don’t have a ton of interest in the rest of the Cavaliers’ guards, as Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, J.R. Smith, and Kyle Korver will all be splitting minutes. With Indiana having two bigs on the floor for most of the game, Cleveland may opt to play bigger as well.

LeBron James is the top overall play of the slate. He has a great matchup, he’s the best player in the world, and he’s in a must-win situation. Over the last few weeks, he’s played the role of facilitator early in games, but I expect him to be aggressive right from the tip in this one. Jeff Green is so inconsistent, but he has the potential to play 30+ minutes at a discounted price point. Like Hill, I’m willing to give Green another shot in tournaments, especially on FanDuel at a price below $4,000.

Kevin Love is going to see a massive boost in playing time during the playoffs and should fly under the radar after a quiet Game 1. He makes sense on FanDuel where we have to roster two power forwards. Larry Nance played 28 minutes in the opener, but that was largely due to the ineffectiveness of Green. I’m going to project Nance to play minutes in the mid-20s tonight, which still makes him a strong play on FanDuel ($4,300), but know that he could see anywhere between 18 and 28 minutes.

Notable Injuries

George Hill (Probable)
Rodney Hood (Probable)
Kyle Korver (Probable)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -2.4 (2 of 6)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, George Hill (GPP), Jeff Green (GPP), Larry Nance (FD)

Secondary Plays – George Hill (Cash), Jeff Green (Cash), Larry Nance (DK)

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total		206.5					Vegas Total		206.5
			Vegas Spread		4.0					Vegas Spread		-4.0
			Implied Team Total		101.3					Implied Team Total		105.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.4					Pace Projection +/-		-1.8
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Corey Brewer	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	7	21	10	10	3		DvP	11	1	4	2	10
DRPM Rat.	5	20	9	25	17		DRPM Rat.	2	6	6	10	1

Utah Jazz

The Jazz got off to a 16-4 lead in Game 1, but it was all Thunder after that. There’s a small chance that I am a Jazz homer, but I still like their chances in this series. The Thunder shot 48% from the three-point line and 87% from the free-throw line. They won’t be able to sustain those numbers the entire series. Assuming Donovan Mitchell is able to suit up, I have Utah winning this game. They are currently listed as four-point underdogs with an implied total of 101.3 points, which is the second lowest on the board.

If you look at the box score from Game 1, none of the Jazz starters saw a huge boost in playing time. What the box score doesn’t show is that all the starters were benched with over two minutes left in the fourth. Add those two minutes to each of their totals and they become more attractive plays heading into Game 2. Despite a bad shooting performance, Ricky Rubio still put up 41 fantasy points in the opener. I absolutely love him moving forward in this series. Mitchell hurt his foot, but played through the pain and was able to go through shoot around this morning. I expect him to be active and I expect him to play minutes in the upper 30s. The rookie was not phased by the pressure of the playoffs and I don’t mind going right back to the well tonight.

Joe Ingles looked out of sorts right from the beginning of Game 1. It didn’t help that Paul George was making every single shot that Ingles contested. I’m not giving up on Ingles yet, but he’s still a little too expensive. Hopefully his price will come down a bit for Game 3. Derrick Favors is a tough sell in this series. He doesn’t create his own shots, which doesn’t allow him to take advantage of his matchup against Carmelo Anthony. And Favors isn’t the best perimeter defender, which was a liability against Anthony in the first game. I like the price for Favors, but worry that Jae Crowder and/or Royce O’Neale will have bigger roles in this series moving forward. Rudy Gobert is a bit overpriced on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings ($6,700) where we can roster two centers by using the utility spot.

Notable Injuries

Donovan Mitchell (Questionable)

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (4 of 6)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert (DK)

Secondary Plays – Derrick Favors, Jae Crowder, Royce O’Neale (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder caught fire in Game 1, which isn’t something they want to rely on against the Jazz. During the regular season, Utah was ranked first in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. In other words, I’d be surprised if they were able to score 110+ points regularly in this matchup. They come into tonight’s game with an implied total of 105.3 points, which is the third highest of the slate, but three points below their season average.

In the playoffs, we have to be careful with small sample sizes. Just because something happened in Game 1 doesn’t mean that it will happen again in Game 2. Paul George was 13-20 from the floor and he made eight three-pointers against the best defense in the NBA. I’m not saying that we can’t play George again, but we shouldn’t expect a repeat performance. With very few options at power forward, he’s going to be extremely popular. The game theory voice inside my head is screaming “fade” as loud as it can. Russell Westbrook has a great track record against the Jazz, although he takes way more jumpers when Rudy Gobert is on the floor. I’ve always preferred using Westbrook against teams that don’t have an elite rim protector. With that said, I’ll take my chances with Westbrook over George here given the difference in expected ownership.

Corey Brewer is hit or miss most games, but he should play around 30 minutes at a cheap price point. If you are looking to fade George, Brewer is one way to do it, especially on FanDuel where we have to roster two small forwards. I hate to say it, but I actually expect Carmelo Anthony to be a major factor in this series. His playing time will go up drastically and he’s a tough cover for Derrick Favors. Despite a poor shooting performance in Game 1, he still managed to score 38 fantasy points. His price will likely be in the mid-$6,000 range for Game 3 if he plays well tonight. Steven Adams was awfully quiet in the first half of Game 1, but had a nice fourth quarter to finish with 25 fantasy points. He’s not a flashy play by any means, but the Thunder need him to play 35+ minutes in this matchup. He’s viable on DraftKings at a price of only $5,800.

Notable Injuries

None

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 107.9 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (3 of 6)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook (GPP), Paul George (FD), Steven Adams (DK)

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (Cash), Paul George (DK), Corey Brewer

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets – 9:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		214.5					Vegas Total		214.5
			Vegas Spread		10.0					Vegas Spread		-10.0
			Implied Team Total		102.3					Implied Team Total		112.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.1					Pace Projection +/-		-1.3
Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	13	8	7	18		DvP	19	20	2	4	11
DRPM Rat.	3	16	10	8	4		DRPM Rat.	18	1	28	15	24

Minnesota Timberwolves

What a strange way to start this series. The Wolves nearly pulled off the upset against the Rockets despite getting nothing from Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns, or Taj Gibson. Of all people, Derrick Rose was nearly the hero for Minnesota. Even after the close call, the Wolves are still listed as ten-point underdogs tonight against the Rockets. While a double-digit spread is never ideal, Tom Thibadeau will not hesitate to play his starters deep into blowouts, especially in the playoffs. The Wolves have an implied total of 102.3 points, which is the fourth highest on the board.

Point guards facing Chris Paul are typically an auto-fade, but Jeff Teague seems immune to the matchup. In his last four games against Paul (including Game 1), he has scored 42, 33, 50 and 39 fantasy points. Nobody will play Teague tonight, even though he continues to perform well in this matchup. Jimmy Butler has yet to have a big game since coming back from injury, but he has played 41 and 36 minutes in his last two games. If you are looking to fade Paul George in tournaments, Butler is an excellent pivot. He certainly has 40+ fantasy point upside in an uptempo game against the Rockets. Andrew Wiggins is cheap, but he doesn’t offer much in terms of peripheral stats. It’s hard to rely on a player that needs a good shooting night to reach value.

Taj Gibson only score 16 fantasy points in Game 1 and didn’t end the regular season in the best of form. He’s typically better against teams that play two bigs and the Rockets rarely do that. Even when they do, their power forwards play on the perimeter. Karl-Anthony Towns had that ridiculous stretch against Clint Capela where he scored 60+ fantasy points in every game. Houston seems to have made an adjustment, as Towns has only scored 39, 46, and 26 fantasy points in their last three meetings. He is still viable on DraftKings ($8,900), but there are a lot of good options at center tonight. Derrick Rose and Jamal Crawford were the only notable bench players in Game 1. It could burn me, but I’m willing to fade Rose here. Of the two, I’d rather play Crawford, who has had a secure role in this offense all season.

Notable Injuries

None

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 109.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -7.3 (6 of 6)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague (GPP), Jimmy Butler (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (Cash), Jimmy Butler (Cash), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD), Andrew Wiggins (DK), Jamal Crawford

Houston Rockets

The Rockets barely picked up a win in Game 1, but at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter what the score was. They are still up 1-0 in the series. Their offense should get rolling here in Game 2, as they have an implied total of 112.3 points. It’s easily the highest on the board. Even though the game has a ten-point spread, this is the playoffs. The starters are going to see a full complement of minutes unless the Rockets are up by 20 points in the fourth quarter.

Chris Paul has been outplayed by Jeff Teague this season, which is so strange. Teague is not a great defender, while Paul is one of the best in the league. I’m not giving up on Paul just yet, especially since he is only $7,900 on DraftKings. The masses will gravitate to James Harden here, which should keep Paul’s ownership low. Speaking of Harden, he casually put up 64 fantasy points in Game 1 of the series. He’s right there with Russell Westbrook as the second best option overall. I still have LeBron James slightly ahead of the other two given the fact that he’s the only one that is playing in a must-win game.

I never quite know what to do with the role players from Houston. Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, and Gerald Green can all have big games at times and they can all have subpar outings at other times. For cash games, I will be avoiding all four. For tournaments, I don’t mind using them as the last piece into a lineup. Clint Capela has always been an elite per-minute producer while on the floor, we’ve just had a tough time predicting his minutes during the regular season. Now that we are into the playoffs, we could see Capela play 35+ minutes on a regular basis. He has a good track record against Karl-Anthony Towns and is coming off of a 52 fantasy point outing in Game 1. He’s an elite play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Injuries

Ryan Anderson (Questionable)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (1 of 6)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela, Chris Paul (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (Cash), Eric Gordon (GPP), Trevor Ariza (GPP)