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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-21 02:24:27

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat – 7:00 PM

Charlotte Hornets Miami Heat
charlottenba Vegas Total 199.0 miaminba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 1 4 12 3 8 Opp. Season 10 14 18 23 16
Last 3 Weeks 3 15 1 2 26 Last 3 Weeks 5 18 11 23 19

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 48-34 — Road: 18-23 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets were demolished in the first game of the series, losing by 32 points in a game that was lopsided from the start. We shouldn’t put too much stock into Game 1 though, as this is expected to be one of the most competitive series in the first round. The Hornets are only listed as 4.5-point underdogs tonight, so expect a bounce back outing from Kemba Walker and company. This is sort of a good news/bad news situation. While the game should stay close, the Hornets have the second lowest team total on the board at only 97.3 points.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,600
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.0 29.1 -5.9 25.9 -9.1
FPPG (FD) 31.0 29.8 -1.3 23.0 -8.0
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 20.2 2.3 17.6 -0.2

Batum played 40 minutes in the first game of the series, even though the Hornets were down by a wide margin. I expect him to see a similar number of minutes again tonight in game that should be much more competitive. The matchup against the Heat isn’t great, but Batum is a multi-dimensional player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He is a borderline elite play tonight.

Al Jefferson
al-jefferson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$4,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.3 22.5 -0.8 23.6 0.3
FPPG (FD) 24.1 28.2 4.0 30.8 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 21.1 22.9 1.8 24.4 3.3

Jefferson is my second favorite center to target tonight, after DeAndre Jordan. He only played 23 minutes in the series’ opener, but I project him to play 25-27 minutes moving forward. The Hornets need his scoring down low, especially against this tough Heat defense. If you need a cheaper option at center, Jefferson is your best bet.

Miami Heat

Record: 48-34 — Home: 28-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat played one of their best games of the season in Game 1 en route to a 123-91 victory over the Hornets. Tonight’s game is expected to be much closer, which is actually good news for the fantasy production of the Heat’s starters. We saw extended action from a number of bench players in Game 1, but don’t expect that to continue moving forward. The Heat are projected to score 101.8 points tonight, which gives them the third highest team total and the second highest projected point differential on the board. Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson are both decent punt plays.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.32
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.1 30.3 1.2 29.2 0.1
FPPG (FD) 35.8 38.7 3.0 37.0 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 18.5 2.4 18.9 2.8

Whiteside dominated the glass and I suppose it’s pretty safe to say that he dominated the Hornets. He had 43 fantasy points in only 26 minutes of action. If tonight’s game stays close (which I expect it to), Whiteside could see minutes in the low-30s. With all of the superstars in this slate, people will hesitate to pay up for center, but I like Whiteside in both cash games and GPPs.

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,400 Salary:$7,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.0 0.5 30.6 0.1
FPPG (FD) 31.6 31.5 -0.1 27.0 -4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 26.8 25.1 -1.7 24.6 -2.2

Between the blowout and Luol Deng catching fire, Wade didn’t need to do a whole lot offensively in Game 1 of the series. Look for him to bounce back tonight, as he still has an elite usage rate and he is expected to see a minutes boost in the postseason. Dollar for dollar, he is my favorite play above $6,000 tonight.

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 32.5 -0.3 31.2 -1.6
FPPG (FD) 27.3 30.4 3.1 32.3 5.0
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 21.5 2.6 22.5 3.6

Dragic may get overlooked tonight, as I expect Reggie Jackson to be the more popular choice at that price point. Dragic quietly put up 26 fantasy points in 33 minutes in Game 1. He should see around 35 minutes tonight in a pretty decent matchup at home.

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$5,800
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 34.9 2.5 35.3 2.9
FPPG (FD) 24.2 28.0 3.8 24.4 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 15.5 0.5 13.8 -1.2

Deng was on FIRE in Game 1. He finished with 31 actual points and 41 fantasy points. While he is a fine play again tonight, I don’t expect a repeat performance. His ownership should be inflated and this could be a nice time to fade him.

Joe Johnson
joe-johnson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,900 Salary:$4,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.72
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.4 32.4 -1.0 32.0 -1.4
FPPG (FD) 22.2 21.7 -0.4 23.3 1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 16.6 1.1 18.4 2.9

Johnson picked up some foul trouble in the first half, but played well in the second half to salvage his fantasy outing. He is one of my favorite small forward values and I prefer him over the cheaper Justise Winslow.

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM

Detroit Pistons Cleveland Cavaliers
detroitnba Vegas Total 202.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Sprd 10.0 Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 96.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 97.40 Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opp. Season 17 7 6 2 1 Opp. Season 14 6 3 11 11
Last 3 Weeks 21 5 24 9 11 Last 3 Weeks 28 4 2 14 22

Detroit Pistons

Record: 44-38 — Road: 18-23 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pistons put up a great fight in Game 1, but eventually fell short. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight, as it feels like a game where they could put up a lackluster performance. Detroit is listed as a 10-point underdog and they have the lowest team total on the board at only 96 points. The Pistons’ offense was able to have some success in the first game of the series, but the Cavaliers are a top five defensive team that we should try to limit our exposure to in DFS. Andre Drummond, Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should only be used in GPPs.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson
reggie-jackson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 31.1 0.4 31.7 1.0
FPPG (FD) 30.7 31.3 0.5 38.6 7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 27.9 2.1 30.8 5.1

Jackson is really the only Pistons’ player on my radar tonight. The Cavaliers have been stout defensively this season, but they have struggled with point guards at times. Jackson should see a small minutes boost in the postseason and he managed to score 29 fantasy points in Game 1 even though he didn’t have the best game offensively.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 57-25 — Home: 33-8 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers had a rare game where all three of their superstars had big fantasy outings. Typically, the three are fighting for fantasy production, but that does change a bit in the postseason now that their playing time is expected to increase. The big question tonight is whether the Pistons will be able to keep the game close. The Cavaliers are listed as 10-point favorites with an implied team total of 106 points.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,500 Salary:$10,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.26 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 35.8 0.2 33.0 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 45.0 51.5 6.5 43.6 -1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 25.8 -1.6 21.9 -5.4

James played 41 minutes and score 52 fantasy points in Game 1 of this series. He has been playing his best basketball of the season recently and is the top overall play on the board. I am a little worried about a blowout here, but that’s not enough of a reason to fade James in cash.

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 34.2 2.7 34.0 2.5
FPPG (FD) 30.8 35.9 5.2 35.6 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 27.4 1.7 25.6 -0.1

Irving put up 51 fantasy points in Game 1 and his price didn’t really go up that much on either FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s going to be tough for all three of the Cavaliers’ superstars to reach value again, but it’s certainly possible now that they all have 40 minute upside here in the playoffs.

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$7,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 29.3 -2.2 27.3 -4.2
FPPG (FD) 32.4 33.1 0.7 31.9 -0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 22.3 2.3 22.9 3.0

Love looked like a completely different player in the first game of this series. He was aggressive in the post, he was rebounding the ball with authority, and he was knocking down open jumpers. I expect his price to continue to climb, so we should take advantage of the sub-$8k price tag while we still can.

Secondary Plays

J.R. Smith
j.r.-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.72
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 31.3 0.6 29.9 -0.8
FPPG (FD) 20.3 21.0 0.6 20.6 0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 15.0 -1.0 15.3 -0.7

Smith isn’t going to contribute in many statistical categories, but he is going to get his shots up and he is going to play around 35 minutes. That’s not a bad combination for a player that is priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Los Angeles Clippers
portlandnba Vegas Total 209.0 laclippersnba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 108.8
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 5 3 8 13 12 Opp. Season 24 18 4 22 27
Last 3 Weeks 7 1 7 26 2 Last 3 Weeks 22 6 10 24 30

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 44-38 — Road: 16-25 — Last 10: 7-3

The Blazers had a tough time offensively in Game 1 of the series, mostly because Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum were a combined 10-of-28 from the floor. They will look to bounce back in Game 2. Portland is listed as an 8.5-point underdog in a game that has, in my opinion, less blowout risk than the Pistons/Cavaliers game. The Blazers are projected to score 100.3 points, which gives them the fourth highest team total and the fourth highest projected point differential.

Elite Plays

Ed Davis
ed-davis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$4,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.8 21.1 0.3 19.9 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 19.3 21.7 2.4 19.2 -0.1
TO-Adj. Usage 10.9 10.6 -0.2 12.1 1.3

Davis as an elite play? Before you exit out of the Grind Down, hear me out. We are going to have to punt a position or two tonight and Davis comes into this game in excellent form, averaging 21.7 fantasy points in his last ten games. He probably won’t see more than 20-22 minutes tonight, but he could easily score 20 fantasy points during that stretch. I trust him a bit more than some of the other punt plays available tonight.

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$6,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 33.3 -1.4 34.1 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 31.6 32.8 1.2 31.3 -0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 23.6 23.3 -0.3 22.9 -0.7

Damian Lillard has always has a tough time with Chris Paul. I will be fading Lillard in favor of McCollum. The Blazers need a big series from him if they are going to have any chance of advancing. While he didn’t play well in Game 1, his price is cheap and we know the type of upside that he provides.

Al-Farouq Aminu
al-farouq-aminu-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 28.7 0.2 29.2 0.7
FPPG (FD) 21.5 26.6 5.1 23.9 2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 15.5 1.2 14.2 -0.1

In Game 1, I had Maurice Harkless ranked as the better play between these two. Hindsight is always 20/20, but I should have expected the Blazers to rely more on the experience of Aminu. He played very well in that game and I wouldn’t be surprised if they reward him with 30+ minutes tonight.

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 53-29 — Home: 29-12 — Last 10: 8-2

The Clippers picked up an easy win in the first game of the series. They outplayed the Blazers on both ends of the floor and are looking to extend their lead to 2-0 in this series with a win tonight. The Clippers are projected to score 108.8 points, which gives them the highest team total and the highest projected point differential on the board. There are five viable targets on the Clippers in this one. DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick are not featured below, but they are both nice GPP plays tonight.

Elite Plays

Chris Paul
chris-paul-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,800 Salary:$9,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.27 FP/Min:1.37
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 28.4 -4.3 28.7 -4.0
FPPG (FD) 41.6 40.6 -1.1 31.8 -9.9
TO-Adj. Usage 24.9 26.0 1.1 19.5 -5.4

Paul only played 33 minutes in Game 1, but that’s all he needed to top the 50 fantasy point mark. He has a great track record against the Blazers and we always like to target Paul in games that matter. Given the lack of options at small forward, I slightly prefer LeBron James. However, in a vacuum, I’d take Paul over James tonight with the discount.

Blake Griffin
blake-griffin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,300 Salary:$8,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.17 FP/Min:1.24
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.4 24.5 -8.9 27.1 -6.3
FPPG (FD) 39.0 25.3 -13.8 33.3 -5.7
TO-Adj. Usage 25.5 20.9 -4.5 23.7 -1.8

Griffin played 32 minutes and scored 44 fantasy points. The Clippers are a much better offense while he is on the floor and if they can keep up their play on the defensive end of the floor, they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs. Griffin is way too cheap on DraftKings and should be a lock for cash games on that site. He is also an elite play on FanDuel, although I wouldn’t consider him a must play at $9,300.

Secondary Plays

Jamal Crawford
jamal-crawford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$4,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.9 29.3 2.4 37.6 10.7
FPPG (FD) 20.2 27.1 6.9 35.6 15.4
TO-Adj. Usage 21.1 21.5 0.4 22.6 1.5

There was a point in the first half when it looked like Crawford was going to put up a goose egg in terms of fantasy production. He didn’t have a very good game, yet he still finished with 15 fantasy points in 27 minutes. As long as he continues to see around 30 minutes, I will continue to put him in my lineups.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious