NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 19th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-19 18:26:52

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New York at New Orleans

Vegas Line – New Orleans -4, 195.5 Over/Under
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Shumpert-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca

New York

The Knicks travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans who are giving up 101 PPG to their opponents this season. The Pelicans are a very slow paced team, averaging only 94 possessions per game. This will likely change when Jrue Holiday comes back, but until then, look for the Pelicans to continue to play with a slow pace.

The Pelicans are ranked below average in terms of FP’s allowed to PG’s, PF’s, and Centers this season. Those are probably the three best positions to target on the Knicks anyway which is always nice. Raymond Felton isn’t my favorite play tonight with all of the other options at PG, but he does offer some value as a deep tournament pick. Tyson Chandler is under $6k on both FD and DK tonight. He is a very consistent option for cash games that should be able to reach value on both of those sites.

Carmelo Anthony – Melo vs. The Brow is going to be a very interesting matchup. While Davis obviously has a great length advantage, Melo is quicker and my guess is that Davis is going to give him plenty of room on the perimeter. I like the matchup for both players and think they should both have solid outings.

New Orleans

The Pelicans are anxiously waiting the return of Jrue Holiday, but it doesn’t sound like it will be tonight. That means Brian Roberts will draw another start and both Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans will continue to see extended minutes. The Knicks have been very solid defensively this season, but Anthony Davis matchup against Melo may be too good to pass up tonight.

Anthony Davis – Even though the Knicks are ranked 1st overall at defending opposing PF’s this season, the eye test says that Davis could be in for a huge night. He has such a height and length advantage that I think he will be dominant offensively and on the glass. Davis is coming off of one of his worst performances of the season and will be ready to get back out there tonight.

Boston at Phoenix

Vegas Line – Phoenix -6, 204 Over/Under
Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Green-Wallace-Sullinger-Bass
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee

Boston

Rajon Rondo. You will hear his name quite a bit throughout my analysis and picks today and I will just go ahead and say his name again: Rajon Rondo. Factoring in price, Rondo is my favorite play of the night. The Suns play at an extremely fast pace and will be playing on tired legs after a tough overtime win last night in Denver. This game is expected to be high scoring and Rondo will lead the charge offensively. With Avery Bradley out for tonight’s game, Rondo will be the main ball handler the entire time that he is on the floor.

Rajon Rondo – This may come as a surprise, but I really like Rondo tonight. It should be a fast paced game, Rondo’s price is still too cheap for the type of production that he can provide, and Rondo is averaging over 35 FP’s per game over his last 5 games. He will be well rested after the All-Star break.

Phoenix

The Suns have a pretty decent matchup tonight against the Celtics who play at an average pace and are giving up 98 PPG to their opponents. The Celtics haven’t been great defensively this season, but they haven’t been terrible either. The Celtics have struggled to defend opposing Centers and have been pretty average at defending the other 4 positions on the floor. Goran Dragic is in play tonight, but I do think Rondo is a much better play and you save some cap room with Rondo as well.

Gerald Green – Green makes a great GPP play tonight thanks to his high ceiling. He’s actually had a pretty high floor lately too which helps his value in cash games. Green is a streaky player and is coming off of his career high last night. He should be full of confidence heading into tonight’s game against the Celtics.

Brooklyn at Utah

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -2.5, 193 Over/Under
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors

Brooklyn

Deron Williams travels back to Utah to take on his former team tonight and if I know Jazz fans (being from Utah), the reception will not be a warm one. Jazz fans are some of the most bitter fans in the NBA. They still boo Derek Fisher everytime he touches the ball. I would like to go on record to say that I am not one of these fans.

The Nets and Jazz both play at a slow pace. They both only average 93 possessions per game this season and the total of 193 points set for this game looks a little high in my opinion. The Nets are an extremely tough team to predict in terms of fantasy production. Now that they are completely healthy, the production comes from different players each night.

Deron Williams – The one player that I will have some exposure to tonight is D-Will. Not only do we have the revenge factor here, but Williams is the PG and he’s going to have the ball in his hands when he is on the floor. This game should stay close and we should finally see D-Will crack the 35 minute mark. I think you can count on him for 15 points and 10 assists tonight.

Utah

The Jazz may be without Derrick Favors tonight. He is currently listed as a GTD, but we may not know his status by the time the first game tips off. If he does happen to sit out, give Enes Kanter, Marvin Williams, and Jeremy Evans a nice fantasy boost. Kanter would likely be the biggest beneficiary though as he would slide into the starting Center position.

The Nets have been pretty solid defensively this season. They are ranked in the top 13 against all positions on the floor except for SG. Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke are both in play tonight, but neither stand out as anything close to a must play. Kanter is probably the best option here and that’s only if Favors ends up sitting out.

San Antonio at Portland

Vegas Line – Portland -2.5, 210 Over/Under
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Belinelli-Duncan-Splitter
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Robinson-Lopez

San Antonio

This is going to be an extremely tough game to analyze. The Spurs are playing in the second half of a back to back and will likely be without Tony Parker once again. I will never forget a couple of years ago when Coach Pop decided to sit all of his starters against the Blazers in Portland. I’m hoping that we don’t see the same situation tonight, but with Pop you can never be too careful.

Assuming Pop will roll his starters out there, this is a great game for both teams. The total is set at 210 points which is the 2nd highest of the night. Both of these teams like to push the pace and the Blazers will be without their best interior defender in Aldridge. You have to love the matchup for Tim Duncan against a Aldridge-less Blazers team, but you may not want to risk it on sites that don’t allow the late-swap.

Patty Mills – Even though Cory Jospeh is the starter with Parker out, Mills has much more upside and is the better play of the two. Mills posted 25 points and 5 assists off the bench last night and should see big minutes again tonight in a fast-paced game similar to their game against the Clippers last night.

Portland

The Blazers have been lucky to not have any major injuries this season, but they will now be without LaMarcus Aldridge for at least the next few games. This is going to completely change their game plan on both ends of the floor because he was their top scorer and arguably their best defender. Most people are expecting Thomas Robinson to get the start for Aldridge, but his absence is going to give extended minutes to Robin Lopez as well.

Damian Lillard – With Aldridge out, Lillard becomes the Blazers’ best offensive weapon. Lillard is really going to have to shoulder the load offensively and I think the talented 2nd year player is equipped to handle it. I like his matchup against Joseph and Mills tonight too. Look for Lillard and the Blazers to try to push the pace against the Spurs who are playing in a back to back situation.

Nicolas Batum – Batum should also see a nice fantasy boost with Aldridge. His minutes likely won’t change much, but he will likely be asked to do more offensively and help pick up the slack rebounding as well. Batum has played well at home this season and his price is a little depressed on most fantasy sites.

Golden State at Sacramento

Vegas Line – Golden State -4, Over/Under 206
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Speights
Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Gay-Thompson-Gray

Golden State

The Warriors have a terrific matchup tonight against the Kings who will likely be without DeMarcus Cousins. Both of these teams play at an extremely fast pace. The Warriors average 98 possessions per game and the Kings average 96 possessions per game. Not only that, but the Kings have not been a strong team defensively. They are giving up an average of 103 PPG to their opponents this season and will be without their best rim protector tonight.

With Cousins out, all of the Warriors are in play tonight. There is one injury situation to monitor with the Warriors. Andrew Bogut is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he has to sit out again, both David Lee and Draymond Green would see a nice uptick in production. Klay Thompson is typically better at home than he is on the road, but I could easily see him getting hot against this Kings team that does not defend the 3-point line well. Andre Iguodala is also worth a look, his offensive game has been struggling, but this is one of those games where he could potentially fill up all areas of the stat sheet.

Stephen Curry – If you don’t factor in price, Curry is the top PG option tonight. The Kings have not defended PG’s well this season (ranked 22nd) and Curry should be able to tear up this defense. This should be a game where Curry has a big night shooting the ball and making plays for his teammates. He’s topped 40 FP’s in 4 of his last 6 games and should top that mark again tonight.

Sacramento

The Kings will be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight. Although it’s not official, he is listed as doubtful and is not expected to play. That means that Isaiah Thomas and Rudy Gay will both have to shoulder the load offensively. Jason Thompson should also see a nice fantasy boost with Cousins out, he really played well the last time that Cousins had to miss a couple of games.

Isaiah Thomas – Thomas is dealing with a sprained wrist, but he is expected to be in the lineup tonight and he hasn’t let it affect his play. Thomas has a nice matchup against Curry who is not a great defender. If the Kings are going to keep this game close, they are going to need big games offensively from both Thomas and Gay.

Rudy Gay – Gay is probably the safer pick of the two, but Thomas has the better matchup. Either way, I think both have solid fantasy value tonight. This game should be a very fast-paced game with plenty of fantasy points to go around. Gay has a great track record against the Warriors too.

Houston at L.A.Lakers

Vegas Line – Houston -8, Over/Under 215
Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Blake-Meeks-Johnson-Williams-Kaman

Houston

We may have saved the best for last. Tonight’s Rockets and Lakers game features the highest total of the night at 215 points. These are two of the fastest paced teams in the league and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them hit the over tonight. The Lakers own the 2nd worst defense in the NBA. In terms of FP’s allowed, they are ranked 26th or worse against every position on the floor.

There are 6 legitimate fantasy options on the Rockets tonight. The PG’s Patrick Beverley and Jeremy Lin both look like solid plays, although they do take away from each other’s fantasy value. Terrence Jones is extremely cheap and close to a must play on DS & SS. Chandler Parsons should also be targeted. He makes a great cash game play against this awful defense.

James Harden – Harden is my favorite play on the Rockets. I like Harden because he has the ball in his hands often. He has a very high usage rate and that should translate well in a game with a ton of possessions against an awful defense.

Dwight Howard – Howard joins Deron Williams on the revenge team tonight. Howard would love nothing more than to go to LA and post 30 points and 20 rebounds. Knowing this defense, he very well could do just that. The Lakers are very soft inside and are not a great rebounding team. I still think I give a small edge to Drummond and Jefferson, but Dwight is definitely in play against his former team.

L.A.Lakers

The Lakers will have Jodie Meeks back tonight, but they will still be without Nash, Farmar, Young, and Henry. They are still extremely thin in the back-court. Expect Meeks, Johnson, Marshall, and Blake to all see extended playing time tonight against the Rockets. Pau Gasol is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Hopefully we will have an update on his status before the first games tip off. If he has to sit out again, Chris Kaman would make a great play once again (still very cheap on DK & FD).

Steve Blake – Blake is the safest play on the Lakers tonight. It’s not official, but my guess is that Blake will start at PG and the Lakers will start Meeks at SG. We all know how valuable the PG is in a D’Antoni system. Blake is very affordable across the industry and has nice upside even in a tough matchup against Beverley.

Wesley Johnson – Johnson should continue to see major playing time with all of the injuries to the Lakers. Johnson is one of those players that can come out of nowhere and put up 35 FP nights. He can do everything on the floor well and has the ability to rack up blocks and steals which really makes him a valuable fantasy player.