NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 29th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-01-29 20:03:34

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New Orleans at Minnesota

• Vegas Line – MIN (-8), 205 O/U
• New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca
• Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic

New Orleans

The Pelicans are winners of 4 of their last 5 games after losing their previous 8. Most of that has to do with the play of Anthony Davis who has been an unstoppable force on both ends of the floor. The Pelicans head into tonight’s game as 8 point underdogs against the Wolves who will be without Nikola Pekovic. The matchup bodes well for the Pelicans as the Wolves average more than 6 more possessions per game than the Pelicans do.

When you first heard that Nikola Pekovic was out, your initial reaction may have been to target the bigs against the Wolves, but I don’t necessarily think that’s the case. His injury will give big minutes to Ronny Turiaf and Dante Cunningham, both of which pride themselves on their defense and their ability to rebound. As crazy as it may sound, I think Anthony Davis will come back down to Earth tonight.

• Eric Gordon – I don’t mind Tyreke Evans here either, but his minutes are so tough to predict that I will only be using him as a high ceiling play in GPP’s. Gordon on the other hand makes a great play in cash games. He has played well in back to back games and has a nice matchup against Kevin Martin who is a scorer first, then play defense type of player. I love Gordon’s price on both DS & SS tonight.

Minnesota

The Wolves have a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans and the absence of Nikola Pekovic helps the value of quite a few Wolves players. First and foremost, this will mean more minutes for Ronny Turiaf. I think he provides value on sites where he is minimum salary, but he’s up to $10k on DS and should be avoided there. Kevin Love will likely see a nice boost in both rebounds and shot attempts. And Kevin Martin could benefit as well as he will now become the clear 2nd option offensively.

• Kevin Love – Even though he may have problems with the length of Davis, I think Love will adjust and use his body like he always does. He is one of the best players in a long time that can use his body to create space both offensively and on the glass. If I’m spending big on a PF tonight, Love is my guy.

• Kevin Martin – Martin always seems to be priced in that no-man’s land. There always seem to be better options that are a little bit cheaper, or you can spend a little bit more and upgrade. I think he’s worth a shot tonight though. Like I said, Pek out makes him the clear #2 option and he has scored at least 20 actual points in 3 of his last 5 games.

Houston at Dallas

• Vegas Line – DAL (-3), 211 O/U
• Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
• Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

Houston

The Rockets travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a game that features the highest total of the night. Both of these teams like to push the pace as they both average at least 96 possessions per game. The biggest question for the Rockets is whether or not James Harden will play. He sat out last night’s game and is considered questionable for tonight’s game.

Harden is such a big part of their offense that when he is out, the whole offense should see a nice fantasy boost. Jeremy Lin would be the direct beneficiary though as he would draw another start at SG. His injury has such a big impact on the fantasy value of his teammates that it’s hard to analyze this game until we know his status. So check the injury news throughout the day and bump up Parsons, Jones, Lin, and Dwight if Harden sits this game out.

Dallas

Based on the Vegas lines, the Mavericks are projected to be the highest scoring team tonight. With this game being played at an extremely fast-pace, there are some solid fantasy options here. The Mavs are always a tough team to predict because they have a lot of different players that contribute offensively. I think the matchup is good enough that we can expect big games out of their stars though. Shawn Marion makes a great value play on most sites and usually excels in uptempo games.

• Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk has all of the splits in his favor tonight. He is averaging over 35 FP’s per game at home this season, he is averaging close to that against the Rockets in his career, and he has a favorable matchup against Jones and the Rockets who have given up the most FP’s of any team to opposing PF’s over the last 15 days.

• Monta Ellis – Ellis let a lot of people down the other night against the Pistons. He finished with 10 fantasy points which was a lineup killer. You have to be able to move on in DFS though and Monta is in a great spot to bounce back nicely tonight. He also has a nice history against the Rockets and has played well at home this season.

Charlotte at Denver

• Vegas Line – DEN (-8), 208 O/U
• Charlotte Proj. Starters – Sessions-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
• Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson

Charlotte

The Bobcats will be without Kemba Walker again tonight which means Ramon Sessions will get another start at PG. He continues to make a nice punt option at PG as long as Walker is out. The Nuggets are a fast-paced team which bodes well for the fantasy value of the Bobcats. As long as they can keep this game within striking distance, I really like both Henderson and Jefferson tonight.

• Gerald Henderson – Henderson is one of those players that most DFS players just avoid completely. He’s always priced in that same range that Kevin Martin is in and most people end up going with other options at his position. I really like his matchup tonight though. He will have a nice size advantage over Foye and the Bobcats will try to exploit that matchup in the post. Would I be crazy if I predicted a 30 fantasy point performance from him tonight?

• Al Jefferson – If you are spending on Center tonight, use that money on Jefferson. The Nuggets have struggled against bigs all season long and Jefferson is really coming into his own over the past month or so. He should post a solid double-double tonight.

Denver

The Nuggets are a team that I’m not too high or too low on tonight. They have a decent matchup against the Bobcats, but they are pretty big favorites which is a bit concerning. Ty Lawson continues to play at a high level, but he is listed as a game-time decision tonight and is probably too risky for sites that lock their lineups. J.J. Hickson may be worth a look, he’s finally playing a consistent number of minutes which helps his fantasy value. Overall though, I tend to like other options tonight.

Chicago at San Antonio

• Vegas Line – SAS (-8), 190 O/U
• Chicago Proj. Starters – Augustin-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
• San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Belinelli-Ginobili-Diaw-Duncan

Chicago

The Bulls are 8 point underdogs tonight against the Spurs in what is expected to be a low scoring game. The Bulls are one of the slowest paced teams in the league and they are facing one of the better defenses in the league. The Spurs are ranked 8th or better against SG’s, SF’s, and Centers. The only thing that will make me want to target any Bulls’ players is if Joakim Noah has to sit out again. If he does, Taj Gibson and Carlos Boozer both makes decent plays at PF.

San Antonio

The injuries just keep coming for the Spurs. They will be without their 3 top wing players tonight as Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, and Danny Green are all sidelined with injuries. While this typically results in fantasy value for the backups, the Spurs always seem to let us down. All signs point to Marco Belinelli having a big game, but he’s been ice cold and the Spurs are playing in a back to back situation. I think the safest choice is to just avoid this low scoring game altogether.

Memphis at Sacramento

• Vegas Line – MEM (-4.5), 192.5 O/U
• Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
• Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Williams-Thompson-Gray

Memphis

In their last 3 games, the Grizzlies have held the Rockets (twice) and the Blazers to under 88 points in each game. Their defense is back to being among the best in the NBA. That does not bode well for the Kings tonight. The total is set at only 192 points which is extremely low for a Kings game.

With Marc Gasol back in the lineup, the Grizzlies have gotten back to a team first mentality. Mike Conley, Courtney Lee, and Zach Randolph have all cooled off after each taking turns as the go to players offensively. A full strength Grizzlies team is a lot like a full strength Nets team, there are just too many players that are fighting for a limited amount of production due to their pace of play.

Sacramento

The Kings will be an easy team to avoid tonight if DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay both play tonight. However, if one or both of them sit out, then you can bump up both Derrick Williams and Jason Thompson. They will both have less than favorable matchups though. The Grizzlies are ranked 14th or better against every position over the last 15 days. Taking inconsistent players in tough matchups usually isn’t the best move in DFS.

Washington at L.A.Clippers

• Vegas Line – LAC (-8.5), 207 O/U
• Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Collison-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan

Washington

The final game of the night features the Wizards and the Clippers. It seems like there are a lot of games that are teetering on the edge of being potential blowouts tonight. This is another one of those games. The Wizards are coming off of a big win against the Warriors last night and could easily be in for a letdown game against the Clippers.

As far as DvP rankings go, the Clippers defend PG’s and SF’s well, but are ranked 21st or worse at defending SG’s, PF’s, and Centers. Marcin Gortat and Nene Hilario both make interesting plays and Bradley Beal could make some noise as a GPP play.

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers have a nice matchup tonight at home against the Wizards. And the Wizards like to make my job a little bit easier. Looking at their DvP rankings, they have consistently struggled to defend PG’s and SF’s. I will not be using Matt Barnes anytime soon though so Darren Collison is really the only play with a favorable matchup. I still think Blake Griffin is in play though, he seems to excel in tough, physical matchups and that’s what he is going to get down low against Nene and Gortat.