NBA Preseason: Monday, October 10th
Welcome back to another edition of preseason NBA DFS. INSPYR is back in the saddle, ready to dominate. Hope everyone had a good weekend and is ready to win some more this week! We have two weeks left in the preseason and there’s going to be some things we never saw coming and hopefully a bunch of things we were able to project.
Let’s talk about the chalk really quickly. We’re seeing guys have ridiculous ownership levels and should expect that trend to continue. This gives us a chance to put on our game theory hats and let others rock the tin foil. Additionally, people are not following the news as much as they should be with real money on the line. Follow me on Twitter: C_Hira24 and you’ll be up to date with all the late breaking news. Chalky players are getting ruled out (Danilo Gallinari on Thursday, Celtics on Saturday) at the last minute and this can give us a real advantage. It’s not bad to play the chalk, there’s a reason everyone likes it. Just be prepared to have another option ready when things don’t go as planned. This is NBA DFS still and it’s the one sport that really challenges you to make rapid decisions without much time to think about it.
Seth Yates went to a different format Saturday and I’ll be continuing that this week. I’ll have elite plays and secondary plays and an analysis of each team. I’ll move guys up and down as the news comes and will now have an area for injured or guys that are out instead of red. One more thing I wanted to point out. Make sure to practice good bankroll management and don’t get in over your head. There’s going to be seven sports available to play on DraftKings this week, not including NASCAR and eSports that run on the weekend.
Minnesota at Charlotte
Minnesota
Projected Starters: Ricky Rubio | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | Gorgui Dieng | Karl-Anthony Towns
Elite Plays: Karl-Anthony Towns
Secondary Plays: Shabazz Muhammad, Nemanja Bjelica
Analysis: Welp, we get to start out by talking about the chalk right away. Expect Karl-Anthony Towns’ ownership to be north of 50%. He killed at 26.8% ownership in the Sharpshooter on Saturday and did not see his price go up. He returned 4.6x (40.5 DKFPS) on his $8.6k salary and will have to deal with the elite defense of the once great Roy Hibbert (sarcasm font). The only reason I could see his ownership not being in the 70%+ range is because Andre Drummond is also on this slate and people might chase points. With Drummond having to deal with the Spurs, Karl-Anthony Towns has a much easier matchup. I took a quick look the list of available centers and with DeAndre Jordan having to deal with Rudy Gobert, it just fuels the thought that KAT will be the mega-chalk. Personally, I can’t fade a guy that took 18 shots (4 3PA) in 26 minutes on Saturday. Tom Thibodeau is known to run his starters into the ground and will want to get them conditioned for the grind. Expect another 24-28 minutes unless the Timberwolves blow out the Hornets in Charlotte.
Another guy that interests me is Shabazz Muhammad. The rumblings are that the T-Wolves want him to play SG, SF, PF this season and could be using this time to see where he is most comfortable. He is $4.4k on DraftKings and the stone cold minimum on FanDuel, where you need two SFs. Muhammad took 14 shots and grabbed 6 rebounds in 22 minutes against the Heat. Andrew Wiggins is going to be an elite player this season and I want to start riding the train already but am proceeding with caution in this game. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is an elite defender for the Hornets and could limit Wiggins, who does not provide much outside of scoring. Nemanja Bjelica played 26 minutes on Saturday, filling up the box score with 12 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals, and a block. He is a minimum priced PF on Draftkings and a minimum priced SF on FanDuel. Both Muhammad and Bjelica have elite upside but are secondary options for now simply because I don’t want you to start by building your rosters around them. Fill them in after you have your core established and if you need to save at certain spots.
Charlotte
Projected Starters: Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Roy Hibbert
Elite Plays: Kemba Walker
Secondary Plays: Nicolas Batum
Update: Kemba Walker is expected to play about 24 minutes tonight. He has a weird mid-range price but if you can fit him into tourney teams, he’ll be low-owned and has plenty of upside.
Analysis: Frank the TANK started on Saturday in place of Marvin Williams and actually bulldozed his way to a double-double in 33 minutes. Williams is back tonight and Frank’s value takes a considerable hit. Jeremy Lamb also started at SG in place of Batum but didn’t do much. If Kemba is going to play over 20 minutes, I might have some interest but I don’t like the Hornets at the time of writing this. Nicolas Batum is also interesting because he pretty cheap on DraftKings. I just like other SGs today outside of him.
There is some dude named Christian Wood making an impact against bench scrubs, fwiw. If you guys come across something I’m missing here please feel free to leave it in the comments section or mention it to me on Twitter.
Washington at New York
Washington
Projected starters: John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Jason Smith | Marcin Gortat
Elite Plays: Bradley Beal, Tomas Satoransky
Secondary Plays: Kelly Oubre
Update: Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi are both expected to play about 17 minutes tonight. I’d fade them.
Update: Markieff Morris has been ruled out. Jason Smith will start in his place. All these bigs being limited moves me higher on KP6.
Update: Trey Burke is out. You have to play Tomas Satoransky now.
Analysis: John Wall is expected to make his preseason debut on Monday but I don’t expect him to play more than 8-10 minutes. Please don’t put him in your lineups. We can also add Trey Burke (ankle), Marcin Gortat (glute) and Markieff Morris (foot) to the injury report, which means Bradley Beal might have to carry the Wizards against the Knicks. I like Beal and you might be forced to play him on FanDuel because of the 2 SG requirement. He’s still priced with some upside left in him, my only concern is that the Wizards don’t have enough of a roster to compete in this game. Marcin Gortat is expected to play tonight but will have to deal with Joakim Noah so that’s an auto fade for me.
Otto Porter has been playing like trash and has a chance to get into early foul trouble if Carmelo Anthony decides to be aggressive, which opens the door for more Kelly Oubre. Oubre is STILL a minimum priced SF on FanDuel and has seen his salary raise to a still playable $5k on DraftKings, higher than the salary of Porter. Tomáš Satoranský played 39 minutes in that double-overtime game against the Sixers and still only scored 10 points and 6 rebounds and 6 assists. If a player needs 39 minutes to do that, I’m not a fan of forcing him in. Still, he is also a minimum priced SF on FanDuel and deserves consideration due to the injuries the Wizards are dealing with. Sheldon McClellan is an undrafted rookie that is trying to make this roster. If Trey Burke sits at the last minute due to his ankle injury and Marcus Thornton continues to be out, I would look to get McClellan into my lineups. I’m not putting him as a secondary play just yet because I want to make sure he’s a viable option and not someone that got thrown out there on Thursday because the Wizards had no choice.
New York
Projected Starters: Brandon Jennings | Courtney Lee | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Joakim Noah
Elite Plays: Kristaps Porzingis
Secondary Plays: Carmelo Anthony, Brandon Jennings
Analysis: We saw Porzingis garner 58.2% ownership in the Sharpshooter on Saturday and only score 22.5 DKFPS. I’m inclined to believe that people will be trigger shy about plugging him into their lineups again on Monday. If Markieff Morris sits, Porzingis will be defended by Andrew Nicholson and Johnny O’Bryant. With Blake Griffin likely garnering all the ownership at PF on DK, my thoughts right now are to go back to the well with Porzingis but it will depend on roster construction since I want to remain as flexible as possible today. Joakim Noah is expected to start on Monday after missing some preseason time due to a hamstring injury and I believe that helps the value of Porzingis. He won’t be asked to bang down low too much and can show off his beautiful 3-point stroke at home. Carmelo Anthony deserves consideration because he will be lower owned than he should be with everyone locking in on LeBron.
Derrick Rose has not made back to the team and Brandon Jennings started in his place on Saturday. Jennings only saw 14 minutes so he is a huge risk with the Knicks using this time to try and find other players on their bench. Chasson Randle saw 20 minutes against the Nets on Saturday but I’m not feeling frisky enough just yet to put him into lineups. Just mentioning his name in case someone wants to find out more details about him.
Cleveland at Atlanta
Cleveland
Confirmed Starters: Kay Felder | Jordan McRae | Dahntay Jones | James Jones | Cory Jefferson
Elite Plays: Jordan McRae, Kay Felder
Secondary Plays: Cory Jefferson, DeAndre Liggins
Analysis: Well, I officially hate the Cavs today! I had written a nice long paragraph on game theory and being prepared for the unexpected when LeBron got ruled out after lock. Going back to the drawing board now that it’s official that the Cavs are going to rest their entire starting lineup. Kyrie and LeBron were going to see so much ownership, we were going to have a free money day.
Anyways, moving on. My boy Jordan McRae has been out here lighting the world on fire and is only $5.2k on DraftKings. He’s still the MINIMUM on FanDuel and if you’re searching for an SG2, I don’t see one much better than him. If someone wants to send me a McRae jersey (just kidding) with all the money they’ve won because of him I’ll make sure to show it off even though I’m LA all day. Kay Fedler is another player we have to consider heavily since he is only $4.9k on DraftKings and the minimum on FanDuel. Nobody else interests me from the Cavs but Channing Frye deserves an honorable mention because he’s been so LIT. I’m just waiting for the law of averages to kick in since he has hit EVERY SINGLE THREE-POINTER he’s attempted in preseason (6 for 6).
Atlanta
Confirmed Starters: Dennis Schroder | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Mike Muscala | Dwight Howard
Elite Plays: N/A
Secondary Plays: Dennis Schroder, Dwight Howard
Analysis: The Hawks did not play their starters against the Spurs on Saturday. Tim Hardaway Jr. got the start SG and went 1 for 13, YUCK. Walter Tavares and Mike Muscala deserve consideration with Millsap not playing on Monday. The Hawks are playing too many players and are still figuring their new starting pieces. I like this spot for Schroder and Howard to work on their chemistry, I’m just not sure how many minutes they are going to play. Both of them are studs compared to the guys the Cavs are throwing out there and will likely go under-owned since they did not play on Saturday.
San Antonio at Detroit
San Antonio
Projected Starters: Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol
Elite Plays: Kawhi Leonard
Secondary Plays: LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker
Update: Patty Mills is out.
Analysis: The Spurs are expected to start this lineup during the regular season and will use these games to get everyone comfortable.This is a team loaded with unselfish players so there’s a chance for everyone to eat. Leonard and Aldridge really stand out to me for this game but the minutes are a concern. Aldridge’s price is playable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I currently have Blake Griffin and Kristaps Porzingis rated ahead of LMA simply because of minutes. Leonard really intrigues me but I have not had a chance to play with roster construction due to writing this. He’s the most expensive SF on DraftKings but behind LeBron on FanDuel. I think this is a spot where Leonard and James could score the same amount of fantasy points leading me to want the lower-owned player, which should be Leonard on DK.
Gasol made his Spurs debut on Saturday and played 22 minutes but will have to deal with Andre Drummond. Having seen him play center for the Lakers, I can say guys that out muscle him usually get the best of him. He’s a finesse player and this is not the most confident spot to fire him up in with KAT having a much more elite opportunity.
Detroit
Projected Starters: Ish Smith | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Tobias Harris | Marcus Morris | Andre Drummond
Elite Plays:
Secondary Plays: Andre Drummond
Analysis: I believe there will be people that will chase Andre Drummond hard and just ignore the fact that they’re playing against the Spurs. As I mentioned above, Drummond can easily outwork Pau Gasol but the fact that LaMarcus Aldridge will still be around, makes me hesitant to pull the trigger on Drummond.
If any of the Spurs’ starters get ruled out, then it’s all systems go for Drummond but I don’t see that happening. Ish Smith took a dump on everyone’s lineup the other night and my analysis is that he’s deferring to a bunch of ball stoppers. Pope, Harris, and Morris usually try to beat their man 1 on 1, reducing assists opportunities for Smith. I still expect him to come out and feed his big man but the ceiling is just capped. If you’re not paying up at PG tonight then put Ish Smith on your radar. He will have basically no ownership and could exceed value because he is still seeing the minutes and his price is not too high. I just think it’s so funny that he’s going to go from 70%+ ownership to possibly having 1-3%.
Utah at Los Angeles Clippers
Utah
Projected Starters: George Hill | Dante Exum | Rodney Hood | Boris Diaw | Rudy Gobert
Elite Plays: Rodney Hood
Secondary Plays: Rudy Gobert, Trey Lyles, George Hill
Analysis: The biggest news is that Gordon Hayward is out indefinitely and Rodney Hood is likely the biggest beneficiary. Yes, the same Hood that didn’t work last season is going to work this season. I don’t have any intel on the Jazz starting lineup since Dante Exum got injured in their last game too. This is another spot where Hood might garner a healthy amount of ownership but this game is the reason I’m only playing on DraftKings tomorrow. There is just too much uncertainty about what they are going to do with Derrick Favors also out. Rudy Gobert led the Jazz with a 20/10 against the Suns on Wednesday but I would only use him in a two-center GPP team. Trey Lyles was surprisingly chalky and might get the start with Diaw too slow to guard Blake Griffin. I’m not sure I’m feeling him in this game but that could change as the day progresses.
I feel like George Hill will have to carry some more offensively and this might be a breakout spot for him. It’s a high-risk high-reward type of late swap move that could pay dividends. People will automatically fade him because they don’t want to deal with Chris Paul but I’m inclined to believe that he will be aggressive and play over 24 minutes. Like I said there is just too much uncertainty at this time to really get a feel for this team outside of Rodney Hood.
Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Starters: Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Luc Mbah a Moute | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan
Elite Plays: Blake Griffin, Chris Paul
Secondary Plays:
Analysis: Blake Griffin is going to prove to a lot of people this season that he is still one of the top power forwards in the game. I love this spot for him with Favors out and feel confident in his jump shot that he won’t have to venture inside too much and deal with the help defense of Rudy Gobert. This is a really odd game scheduling wise since this game will likely start after all the east coast games are over. This will give us a distinct advantage to those that just plug their lineups in and forget about it. My concern is that Doc might pull a rabbit out of his hat again and start a random lineup. Rivers started Paul, Redick, and Rivers the other night, so there’s no telling what he’s thinking. Also, I’m expecting we’re going to get news really late so make sure to follow me because I’m following this game like a hawk. I’ll have more updates as I get them but for now just leave at least two roster spots for this game if you’re playing on DraftKings and stick in Hood and Griffin if you’re playing on FanDuel.
Thanks for reading good luck out there!