NBA Starting 5 (GPP): Monday, November 20th

The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, as analyzed by one of our daily fantasy sports experts.

Monday, November 20th

Welcome back to the Starting Five. I love writing this article on Mondays, as there are typically different slate sizes, which allows me to talk about how the number of games affects your strategy in DFS.

On a big slate with a few potential big injury spots, paying attention to the late news will be crucial. I’m going to write up a guy at each position who is primed to get a big usage bump if the related questionable player sits.

Point Guard: Mario Chalmers – $4,700 – Memphis Grizzlies

Chalmers is making his third consecutive start in place of the injured Mike Conley, and his price has yet to rise to the levels it should. At $4,700, I’m looking for 30-31 DK points in GPPs to be happy, and he’s basically hit that number in two of three games without shooting the ball well. Portland isn’t very good at guarding guards, which should make this spot more favorable than normal. Using CourtIQ, we can see with Conley off the floor and Chalmers on that Chalmers has a very respectable 20.9% usage rate along with a .84 DK point per minute clip. In harder matchups I might suggest fading Chalmers here, but right now he’s my favorite option.

Note: If John Wall sits, Tim Frazier becomes another viable punt option.

Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal – $8,000 – Washington Wizards

Paying $8,000 for Bradley Beal at first glance looks like a no-way-in-hell type play, but when you use CourtIQ you see that Beal actually could be more expensive if John Wall isn’t on the floor. This year with Wall off and Beal on, Beal has an absurd 38.1% usage rate and is averaging 1.25 DK points per minute. Beal basically turns into 2016 Russell Westbrook (or 2017 LeBron) in these types of situations, yet he’s only $8K. Now if Wall was to play, you couldn’t even consider Beal, but this is one of those classic spots in which a player sits and the biggest beneficiary isn’t his replacement but another starter already on the floor.

Small Forward: Bogdan Bogdanovic – $3,500 – Sacramento Kings

With Buddy Hield already ruled out, it should open up some extra minutes for Bogdan tonight. He was already playing solid sixth man minutes in the 25-28 range and now has upside for low 30s if he plays well. He doesn’t get a massive usage bump, but in this situation the extra 3-5 minutes could take him from a good play to a great play at this $3,500 tag.

Note: Justin Jackson is another player who could benefit from Hield being out.

Power Forward: Kevin Love – $7,400 – Cleveland Cavaliers

With Paul Millsap ruled out and his value replacement Wilson Chandler being questionable with a back injury, I’m going to go away from that game entirely and talk about Kevin Love. He will (try) to be guarded by Drummond, which will mean lots of open threes for Love (now Drummond will abuse him on other end, so foul trouble is an issue). If he shoots well, he could be in the 30 real life point range, and that obviously would put Love in great position to smash value at this price.

Center: Nikola Jokic – $9,100 – Denver Nuggets

With Millsap out, Jokic is in an even better situation than normal. As mentioned above he got ejected in the first half last night, so I’m not worried about him having to deal with the back-to-back effect because he didn’t play much. With Millsap off the floor, Jokic has had a 25.1% usage rate (up from 22.2%) and averages a whopping 1.44 DK points per minute. This matchup against the Kings is better than neutral as well for Jokic, so this could be a 1.5 to 1.6 DK point per minute spot in a game in which they will probably need 30-34 minutes from him. He’s my favorite GPP play now that Millsap will miss the game tonight.

As always, leave any comments or questions in the comment section. See you guys next week!

About the Author

  • CJ Kaltenbach (theseige)

  • A popular contributor for RotoGrinders, C.J. Kaltenbach, aka TheSeige, is an attorney turned DFS professional who has made multiple live finals including winning the 2015 FantasyAces College Football Championship. He is consistently ranked in the top 100 of the RotoGrinders rankings in all major sports. He currently co-hosts The Morning Grind along with stevietpfl and can frequently be found on various GrindersLive shows

    RotoGrinders AMA


  • Elphatcat2

    Thoughts on PHI forwards if Embiid is out? Lock Saric….?

    WCS worth playing against Denver?

    Hawks sneaky @ SA?

  • B28walt

    Justin Jackson played zero minutes the last two games!

  • theseige

    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @Elphatcat2 said...

    Thoughts on PHI forwards if Embiid is out? Lock Saric….?

    WCS worth playing against Denver?

    Hawks sneaky @ SA?

    prolly Saric/Holmes but i’d have to dig into that more

    WCS def in play, gonna need bigs on the floor, Hawks sneaky but which one goes off?

  • theseige

    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @B28walt said...

    Justin Jackson played zero minutes the last two games!

    Right but was playing in the 20’s before that and with Hield out he could re-enter the rotation

  • Stevennba

    Fake news on milsap did you even watch the game?

  • Stevennba

    He did return, he then took a big fall and asked to be taken out. That was well after jokic was kicked out. Fake news

  • huuos

    Hes been ruled out. Real news.

  • Boss84

    @stevenba millsap is out pay attention

  • sparkysrevenge1

    Lets all play a game where we assume the guy that gets paid to give us advice (aka the professional) actually knows more then we do, I know its humbling but you just might learn something.

  • flymaggiefly

    @theseige thoughts on J Buckets tonight? And Utah guys vs 76ers?

  • Aarondh88

    @flymaggiefly My assumption would be JB matches up with Batum a good amount, who’s normally considered a good defender, buckets has filled it up lately though

  • rrtrifecta

    thanks for nightly fades…lets all be careful out there boys and girls.

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