NBA Starting Five: Monday, March 7th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at two of my favorite tools the NBA Trending Stats Watch, as well as the Defense vs Position tool.
As Al Smizzle always says, minutes equal money, and that should be especially true if we can find players with elevated minutes that are also in prime matchups. Based on that, I’ll first look look at DvP to see who has good matchups and then will look at the “MIN” tab under Trending Stats watch to see if any of those players are also seeing increased minutes. Finally, I’ll be using FanDuel pricing.
Point Guard: Jrue Holiday, $7,400
I’ll begin by looking at the DvP matchup at each position:
Looking at PG, the Bulls (Bucks), Warriors (Elfrid Payton), and Kings (Pelicans) have all presented elite matchups for PG today. The PG situation for the Bucks is dependent on the status of Michael Carter-Williams, who seems to be closer to doubtful. If he sits again, O.J. Mayo should draw the start, but Jerryd Bayless has been the biggest beneficiary and is the preferred option. Elfrid Payton is playing better recently and is an intriguing tournament option, but he is not someone I trust for cash games due to the Scott Skiles factor. As we’ll see below, the best spot to target here looks to be the PG(s) for the Pelicans.
Both Norris Cole and Jrue Holiday not only draw a great DvP matchup, but also check in near the top of the list under “min”. Both have seen over 30 MPG over the past week, and now Eric Gordon is set to miss time.
Holiday is expected to move into the starting lineup at SG for Gordon, but now Cole is also listed as a GTD, so if he sits Holiday should start at PG. In either scenario, Holiday should start and continue to see his minutes rise in a game with a total of 220 points. If Cole is cleared to play, he’s a guy to look at, and rolling with both Holiday and Cole in that scenario is certainly viable.
Shooting Guard: Zach LaVine, $5,500
First the DvP:
There aren’t a ton of great DvP matchups at SG today but the Kings (Pelicans), Pelicans (Kings) and Bucks (Jimmy Butler) all have presented great matchups this season. We’ll have to await news on Norris Cole to know who is starting at SG for the Pelicans, but we know that Holiday draws a great matchup no matter whether he starts at PG or SG. The Kings SG position is a mess right now as they’re playing lots of two PG lineups with Rajon Rondo and Darren Collison. If you’re spending, Jimmy Butler is in a nice spot against a bad Milwaukee defense, and he looked good in his first game back from injury. He’s also really taken advantage of Milwaukee’s poor SG defense this year as he he’s averaging 31 PPG, 5 rebounds and 8 assists against Milwaukee this year. The downside is that he won’t come cheap.
There is no correlation at SG between DvP and “min’ today, but Zach LaVine just jumps out today in terms of minutes. His price is slowly climbing on Fanduel, but it hasn’t risen quite enough in my opinion. The reason is that his minutes have gone through the roof. He’s averaging 37 MPG over the past week and 34 over the past three weeks, which is great minute security at his price point. SG is thin tonight, so LaVine is an elite mid-range value that has been very safe and consistent recently due to his minutes.
Small Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, $8,700
Based on DvP, SF is like SG in that it’s not overly exciting:
The Bucks (Mike Dunleavy), Kings (Dante Cunningham), Hornets (Andrew Wiggins) and Bulls (Giannis Antetokounmpo) present the best DvP matchups tonight. However, Mike Dunleavy and especially Dante Cunningham are very risky propositions to be able to take advantage of their matchups. With LaVine seeing big minutes, Andrew Wiggins is seeing most of his time at SF. However, he is SG eligible on FD and is very scoring dependent, so he’s a guy I rarely roster, especially with LaVine being cheaper on FD. The most intriguing player here for me is clearly Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has put together 60+ FD point games in three of his last four games.
Giannis shows up as both a top DvP play as well as a great target due to increased minutes. He’s averaging 40 MPG over the past week, and 38 over the past three weeks. He’s a guy who stuffs the stat sheet, so with that type of minute volume, his floor and ceiling are both really high. I do worry about the return of Jimmy Butler as he could guard either Giannis or Khris Middleton. However, Butler played in both meetings between these two teams this season, and Giannis has averaged 23.5 PPG, 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 34 MPG. As we know, he’s now seeing 38 to 40 MPG, and with Michael Carter-Williams potentially out once again, he will continue to have the ball in his hands a ton (MCW played in both of the previous games).
Power Forward: Jabari Parker, $6,000
Everyone will rightfully be focused on the high Vegas totals in New Orleans and Golden State, but DvP is showing us that this Chicago/Milwaukee has some quality spots to target.
At PF, the Kings (Anthony Davis), Mavericks (Clippers), and Bulls (Jabari Parker) have all been teams to target. The PF position for the Clippers is a mess with Blake still out, so while I love picking on Dirk defense, it’s a tough spot to target unless Luc Richard Mbah A Moute misses another game. Even in that scenario, it’s always tough to trust Jeff Green, who should start if Luc sits, or Wesley Johnson. However, this does look like a great spot for Anthony Davis and Jabari Parker. Davis is the clear cut top option at PF if you’re spending and finally got aggressive last game with 31 FGA. If you’re looking to game stack, he’s a prime target along with Jrue and Cousins, although you’ll have to save elsewhere. Speaking of cheaper options, how about Jabari Parker against a Bulls defense that is 23rd in DvP against PF.
The Bucks have been one of my favorite teams recently as they’re playing little defense, but are also running Giannis, Khris MIddleton and Jabari Parker out there for huge minutes. Parker is averaging 38 MPG over the past three weeks, and his minute volume has correlated into big fantasy production.
The Bucks are coming off of a back to back but Chicago has allowed at least 100 points in every game in February and March, and he could have some extra bounce in his step tonight because he’s from Chicago.
Center: DeMarcus Cousins, $10,700
One last look at the center DvP:
The Pelicans (DeMarcus Cousins) and Bulls (Miles Plumlee) both present top eight DvP matchups at center tonight. Plumlee plays limited minutes, so Cousins just stands out at as the elite option at center tonight, and a I guy I would have exposure to in all formats. The Pelicans are 29th in DVP against centers and Boogie has averaged 29 PPG, 11 rebounds, 3.5 assist and 2.5 blocks against them this year.
Cousins doesn’t jump out in the minutes column, but if I sort over the past three weeks, he’s been playing a rock solid 36 MPG. Karl-Anthony Towns has seen some volatile minutes, but as a whole his minutes are up recently. For a GPP, he could be a high end GPP pivot if you’re looking to avoid high ownership with Cousins, but this looks like one of those matchups for Cousins where you want exposure in all formats, regardless of ownership. If you’re looking to get contrarian in a tournament, Omer Asik doesn’t quite make the above lists but the Kings are just 19th in DVP against centers, and Asik played 25 minutes in his return last game. Foul trouble against Cousins is a concern and Asik will make your eyes bleed on offense, but he has averaged 25 FD PPG against the Kings this year, and is minimum price on both sites.