NBA Starting Five: Thursday, March 31st
The Starting 5 series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools. Today we’ll take a closer look at one of my favorite tools the NBA Trending Stats Watch.
We’ll use FanDuel pricing and in particular will look at the “min” and “fpts” tab to see who has seen a recent bump in minutes and fantasy production. Some value has recently popped up with the Clippers as they are resting Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick. This tool won’t highlight the Clippers value options but guys like Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford, Cole Aldrich, and maybe even Jeff Green will be very popular tonight for good reason. We can use this tool to either highlight potential plays to go alongside the Clippers options, or to find pivots from the Clippers high ownership in tournaments.
Point Guard: Tim Frazier, $4,000
Minutes:
There are a two top tier options I’m looking at in Isaiah Thomas and Russell Westbrook, but I’m also interested to see if the Thunder rest Westbrook in this one. Moving down there are three value PG options tonight in Austin Rivers, Shane Larkin, and Tim Frazier. Frazier is dependent on Norris Cole remaining out, but as long as Cole is out then Frazier looks like a quality pivot from Rivers. He’s still coming off the bench, but due to all of the Pelicans’ injuries, he’s averaging 25 MPG over the past week.
Fantasy Points:
Frazier has made quality use of those 25 minutes as he’s averaging 22 FD PPG- despite the fact that the Pelicans have had a string of tough matchups in the Spurs, Raptors, Pacers and Heat. The Nuggets are a big dropoff defensively from those teams so I’m expecting another productive night from Frazier at what could be low ownership.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, $10,900
Minutes:
Due to all of the resting players, this slate is taking on a stars and scrubs approach, and Harden is the one star that we can project for huge minutes. The Rockets are battling for their playoff lives so he’s shouldering an insane minute load. He’s averaging almost 43 MPG over the past week and with a talent like Harden that provides not only a great fantasy floor but a great fantasy ceiling.
Fantasy Points:
The matchup isn’t perfect as Harden will see some Jimmy Butler defense tonight, but as we can see, Harden is basically matchup proof with the minutes he is getting. He’s averaging 53 FD PPG over the past week and while Butler is a quality defender, this is a bad Chicago defense overall. He’s expensive but with all of the value and another cheap SG option in Jamal Crawford available, he’s very easy to squeeze into your lineups. For cash games, it’s tough to beat a Harden/Crawford combo.
Small Forward: Jordan Hamilton, $3,600
Minutes:
Hamilton just recently signed with the Pelicans so you have to search for him, but with the injuries to the entire Pelicans team, he’s stepped into quality minutes and even started their last game. He’s averaging 24 MPG in his three games with the Pelicans, and will get a crack at one of his former teams in the Denver Nuggets tonight.
Fantasy Points:
Hamilton has never been a guy that has been shy about getting his shot up, and this New Orleans team needs offense desperately. He put up 26 FD points against an elite San Antonio defense last night, and has averaged 21 FD PPG (6x value) over his three games. He should find the sledding much easier tonight against a Denver team that has struggled to guard SG this season. He’s a quality option to pair with one of the high end SF in LeBron James or Kevin Durant.
Power Forward: Thomas Robinson, $4,000
Minutes:
PF is one of the tougher positions tonight, but the Nets opened up some value as they are resting Brook Lopez tonight. I haven’t seen confirmation, but I would expect Robinson to draw another start as he started for Thad Young last game, and started the last game the Nets rested Lopez. He played 31 minutes in his start on Tuesday night, and fills a very tough PF position.
A lot of attention will be on whether Kyrie Irving plays, and if he sits then we can also lock in Kevin Love at PF. However, if Kyrie plays or if you’re looking to fade potential high ownership in Love and Robinson, then Ed Davis is a guy I’m looking at, as his minutes have solidified recently with Meyers Leonard out.
Fantasy Points:
Robinson has shown he can be a solid fantasy producer, and that was on full display on Tuesday night. He put up 36 FD points, and also put up a monster performance in his previous start. His offensive game is still limited so I’m not expecting 18 points again, but he’s a great rebounder and will be one of the highest owned value plays on this slate. This graph also illustrates why Ed Davis deserves consideration. He’s still coming off the bench, but he’s been terrific recently. He’s averaging 6x value over the past week, and has hit 5x value in seven straight games.
Center: Alexis Ajinca, $3,900
Minutes:
I’ll be honest- I muttered a few curse words when I realized I would be writing up 3 Pelicans. However, they are depleted by injuries, and they are finally in a quality matchup. Vegas has their team total sitting at above 100 points, and someone has to score those points for them. Ajinca has moved into the starting lineup, and has seen a minutes boost of 15 minutes recently. My guess is Cole Aldrich will carry higher ownership so Ajinca is a potential tournament pivot in the same price range as Aldrich.
Fantasy Points:
Nurkic is out and Nikola Vucevic is out so that leaves Ajinca as the only option on this graph. He’s averaging 25 FD PPG over the past week, and he’s being forced into a big offensive role. He took 19 FGA last game, and he took 20 FGA against the Pacers, which is elite usage for his price point. The matchup is certainly there against a susceptible Denver interior so while Aldrich is clearly a quality option, don’t forget about Ajinca as a tournament pivot.