NBA Trend Blend: Friday, December 30th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Editor’s Note: Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, Goran Dragic and Avery Bradley have been ruled OUT for tonight.
Slate Info
Games
Nine
Highest O/U
Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards – 221.5
Lowest O/U
Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks – 201.5
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 115
Lowest Projected Total
Dallas Mavericks – 97
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors – 18-point home favorites over Dallas Mavericks
Closest Spread
Milwaukee Bucks 1-point road favorites over Minnesota Timberwolves
Point Guard
Favorites
T.J. McConnell ($3,300 DK – $3,800 FD) – McConnell is just $300 above minimum on both sites, and he is expected to start tonight’s game against the Denver Nuggets. This is the closest thing to a must play that we’ll have all season. When you have a starting point guard for near minimum salary, you just about always start him. When you have a starting point guard at near minimum salary in one of the best PG matchups in the NBA, you do the smart thing and lock him in. Denver ranks 28th in PG DvP, fourth fastest in pace and 27th in DRtg/A. Denver allows opposing PGs the fourth most rebounds, sixth most assists and sixth most real life points per game. Don’t get cute here, particularly in your cash game lineups.
Reggie Jackson ($5,700 DK – $5,500 FD) – This seems like a good time to take a chance on Reggie Jackson. His price is likely to approach $7,500 before too long, and he’s in a prime spot to take advantage of his recent uptick in minutes and his depressed salary. Jackson faces the Hawks in this spot, and Atlanta ranks 29th in PG DvP. The Hawks also represent a massive pace up opponent for the Pistons as Atlanta averages more than five possessions per game above Detroit’s per game average. Jackson has now seen 30 plus minutes in three straight games. This is a great spot to take Jackson in cash games and tournaments. The Hawks allow opposing PGs top five numbers in rebounds allowed per game and assists allowed per game, so the peripheral stats should be there for Reggie tonight too.
Others worth mentioning
Giannis Antetokounmpo
John Wall
Isaiah Thomas
Chris Paul
Derrick Rose
Deron Williams
Tony Parker – cash
Malcolm Brogdon
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Gary Harris ($4,700 DK – $4,600 FD) – James Harden should be the chalk play at SG, and for good reason, but Harris finds himself in a great spot tonight at a much cheaper price point. Harris has seen 30 or more minutes in five of his last seven games. The 76ers rank 20th in SG DvP and 22nd in DRtg/A. Furthermore, Philadelphia plays at a quicker than average pace, and while Denver plays at the fourth fastest pace in the NBA, Harris and the Nuggets shouldn’t be playing much slower than usual if at all, which is a plus. At his depressed price point, Harris should have no trouble reaching 5x value, and he has the upside for much more. Vegas has this game as a bit of a blowout risk with Denver favored by 11.5-points at home, but if this game can stay competitive (and I think it can), it could be a fantasy goldmine. Harris is just one of the strong plays from this game.
Others worth mentioning
James Harden
Zach LaVine
Bradley Beal (or replacement)
Wes Matthews
Eric Gordon
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Marcus Smart
Seth Curry
Small Forward
Favorites
Andrew Wiggins ($6,500 DK – $6,400 FD) – Wiggins is capable of putting up a 50 burger, or a dismal 20 FPT outing, but he has shown solid consistency lately. The main thing that makes me more bullish on Wiggins is the fact that he has taken 19 or more FGAs in six if his last seven games. His USG for the season sits at an excellent 26.03, and if he maintains that type of usage tonight, it should translate to strong production against a Bucks team that ranks 29th in SF DvP. Peripheral production is often a concern with Wiggins, but the Bucks allow opposing SFs to rack up the fourth most rebounds per game along with the third most real life points allowed per game (to the SF position). All in all, Wiggins is affordable enough that he makes for a strong cash game play. I wouldn’t roster him with the expectation of 50 plus FPTS, but 35-40 is certainly realistic in this spot. Vegas has this game as the closest projected spread of the night, so the starters should get plenty of run.
Carmelo Anthony ($7,300 DK – $7,500 FD) – I never enjoy the prospects of rostering Carmelo, but his price is dropping, and the spot is attractive enough. The Pelicans rank 23rd in SF DvP and allow opposing SFs to accrue the second most rebounds per game. Rebounds are a real part of Melo’s game, as he is averaging six boards per game on the season. Anthony is always going to be a big part of what the Knicks do offensively, and while he isn’t the most efficient player, this may be the right time/place to plug him in. Melo’s price is as low as it has been all season, and he has a great chance of exceeding value tonight. I honestly like him in both cash games and tournaments tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Kawhi Leonard
Kevin Durant
Harrison Barnes
Danilo Gallinari
Wilson Chandler
Justise Winslow
Robert Covington
Power Forward
Favorites
Ryan Anderson ($5,600 DK – $5,700 FD) – Since Blake Griffin has been Out, I’ve been drawn to rostering opposing power forwards against the Clippers. The Clippers are a very good defensive team, but the Rockets are projected to score the third most points on the slate, and Anderson should be a big part of that output. When Houston plays in competitive games, Anderson sees between 31 and 37 minutes. With no Griffin to contend with, Ryno should be able to smash value once again.
Others worth mentioning
Anthony Davis
Paul Millsap
Draymond Green
Kristaps Porzingis
Ersan Ilyasova
LaMarcus Aldridge
Markieff Morris
Trevor Booker
Meyers Leonard
Center
Favorites
Al Horford ($6,700 DK – $7,700 FD) – First off, there is a massive price discrepancy between DK and FD, which makes Horford a steal on DK and slightly overpriced on FD. Boston managed Horford’s minutes last night against Cleveland, and he should be primed and ready to go tonight against Hassan Whiteside and the Heat. Miami ranks 21st in C DvP and Horford has the skill set to give Whiteside trouble on both ends. Two weeks ago in this same matchup, Horford put up 17 points, seven rebounds, eight assists, one block and two steals. Horford should be able to produce a similar line in this game against a weary and injured Whiteside.
Nikola Jokic ($6,900 DK – $7,200 FD) – Jokic is back to being listed as a PF on FD, and I’m approaching a breaking point with the ridiculousness of the ever-changing position eligibility listings on both main sites. All I want is logic and consistency. Is that too much to ask for? Evidently, it is. Anyways, Jokic is in a great spot tonight. The 76ers rank 25th in C DvP and 22nd in DRtg/A. Furthermore, Philadelphia ranks 23rd in rebounding differential, while Denver ranks first. Jokic should be able to absolutely dominate on the glass tonight, and he’s nearly a lock for a double double. Jokic has a ceiling approaching 60 FPTS in this spot, and I think he’ll reach value easily, as long as he avoids foul trouble.
Others worth mentioning
Mason Plumlee
Brook Lopez
Andre Drummond
Karl-Anthony Towns
Pau Gasol
Marcin Gortat
Tendencies To Exploit
As much as it makes sense to lock in a guy like T.J. McConnell, we have to stay flexible throughout the day leading up to lock. While it is unlikely in this case, given the matchup and the value, there is always a chance that better value opens up elsewhere (again, probably not tonight, but on any given slate). We do ourselves a disservice if we lock onto any one player six hours before lock. Stay flexible, be willing to adjust to late-breaking news, and win the money.
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.