NBA Trend Blend: Friday, January 6th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Eight
Highest O/U
Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic – 222.5
Lowest O/U
Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings – 208.5
Highest Projected Total
Cleveland Cavaliers – 117
Lowest Projected Total
Memphis Grizzlies & Philadelphia 76ers – 101
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors – 13.5-point favorites over Memphis Grizzlies
Closest Spread
Los Angeles Clippers – 1.5-point favorites over Sacramento Kings
Favorite Games To Stack
Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards
Point Guard
Favorites
Goran Dragic ($7,400 DK – $7,100 FD) – Dragic makes for one of my favorite PG plays on the slate. For starters, the Lakers rank 26th in PG DvP, dead last (30th) in DRtg/A and they also represent pace up opponent for the Heat. Furthermore, Hassan Whiteside is expected to miss yet again, and when Whiteside is off the court, Dragic sees a spike in usage of 3.9% (per our CourtIQ tool). This game should be extremely competitive (three point spread) and Dragic should be locked in to 32 plus minutes. This is a fantastic matchup where he should once again have to do the heavy lifting for this Heat team.
Mike Conley ($6,600 DK – $6,900 FD) – Conley is more of a tournament play, but he’s one that we should consider. The Warriors are a great defensive team overall, but containing opposing guards is one glaring exception. This game will be a massive pace up spot for the Grizzlies, and that should prove to benefit Conley the most. The Warriors are allowing the sixth most 3PAs per game to opposing PGs, and that is something worth calculating when considering a player like Conley who shoots a high percentage from three (42% this season). I normally shy away from taking players on the bad side of a potential blowout, but Conley makes for a sneaky tournament play with massive upside.
Others worth mentioning
Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG on FD)
John Wall
Isaiah Thomas
Kyrie Irving
Tyler Johnson
Malcolm Brogdon
Patrick Beverley
Austin Rivers
Raymond Felton
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Evan Fournier ($5,800 DK – $6,000 FD) – With the position relatively thin, Fournier stands out as my favorite option (aside from the obvious in Harden). The Rockets rank 26th in SG DvP and play at the fifth fastest pace in the NBA, which ought to provide Fournier with some extra chances in this up-tempo game (by Magic standards). Fournier has a healthy USG of 23%, and he should be the go-to guy in this matchup against James Harden (not known for his defensive prowess). With Houston coming off of a competitive game last night with starters playing a lot of minutes, they may well be slightly sluggish. Vegas seems to agree, as Houston is just a six-point favorite. This game should stay competitive, and Fournier should be a big reason why.
J.J. Redick ($5,200 DK – $4,400 FD) – Redick is an absolute steal on FD, and is fairly priced on DK. While the Chris Paul injury has benefited Austin Rivers and Raymond Felton, Redick has also seen a boost in USG and in minutes of late. With 27 total shots and 71 minutes in his last two games combined, Redick should be in line for another 33-36 minutes with 13-16 FGAs. The Kings rank 24th in SG DvP and they allow the third most 3PM per game to the SG position. Redick has cash game safety and tournament upside in this spot.
Others worth mentioning
James Harden
Klay Thompson
Bradley Beal
Zach LaVine
Avery Bradley
Tony Allen
Small Forward
Favorites
Jae Crowder ($5,200 DK – $5,300 FD) – Most people will gravitate to Carmelo Anthony after he lit up this same Bucks team for 60.8 DK points two nights ago. However, Carmelo sees a massive drop in USG when Kristaps Prozingis is on the court, and as of now, he is going to play. The numbers look like this 36.8% USG with Porzingis off the court – 28.2% USG with Porzingis on the court. Make no mistake, the usage rate with Kristaps on the floor is still good, but with the up swing in price, I’m ok with fading Melo tonight. That leads us to Jae Crowder. I admit that Crowder doesn’t have the ceiling that Melo has, but I think I’d rather take the nearly 3k in savings and spend up elsewhere. The 76ers rank 20th in SF DvP and 19th in DRtg/A. Crowder is a model of consistency as he has just one game lower than 21.5 DK points in his last 15 games. Crowder isn’t going to flash 50 point upside, but he can get you 5x on a consistent basis (ten times in his last 15 games).
Others worth mentioning
LeBron James
Kevin Durant
Carmelo Anthony
Andrew Wiggins
Dario Saric
Power Forward
Favorites
Ersan Ilyasova ($6,000 DK – $5,800 FD) – While the price is climbing, I’m awfully tempted to bite on this opportunity. Ilyasova hasn’t seen fewer than 24 minutes in any of his last eight games, and he’s been over 30 minutes in half of those. I believe that this will be another 30 plus minute outing for Ersan against a susceptible Boston frontcourt. Ilyasova went for 18 and six when these two teams met in early December, and his USG and production has been on the rise ever since. Boston ranks 25th in PF DvP and 28th in rebounding differential. Ersan has double digit rebounds in two of his last three games, and has been contributing well across the board. The Celtics are allowing the fourth most successful made three-point shots to power forwards in the association, and Ilyasova is jacking them up to the tune of 6.3 3PA’s per game. This is a good play for both cash games and tournaments tonight.
Gorgui Dieng ($5,800 DK – $5,600 FD) – Another strong option at a similar pricepoint is Gorgui Dieng. While the usage is never going to be elite for Dieng, he still finds ways to produce in rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. The Wizards rank 22nd in PF DvP, 22nd in DRtg/A and 20th in rebounding differential. Because Dieng doesn’t see the high usage of some other PF options, he’s best suited for cash games, but he does bring 6-7x upside in this matchup. Timberwolves starters see a ton of minutes, and with tonight’s game expected to be closely contested, that trend should continue.
Others worth mentioning
Kevin Love
Draymond Green
Julius Randle
Jabari Parker
Trevor Booker
James Johnson
Dario Saric
Marreese Speights
Center
Favorites
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900 DK – $11,000 FD) – This is a case in which the numbers for the Clippers look a lot more imposing than they actually are. Since the injuries to Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, the Clippers have been steadily falling in defensive categories. My guess is that we’ll see plenty of DeAndre Jordan on Boogie, but that we’ll also see an uptick in minutes for Marreese Speights, and neither guy can slow Boogie down with success. Earlier this season (when the Clippers were healthy), DMC threw down 38 real points, 13 rebounds, seven assists, three steals, one block and two three pointers made – good for 73.3 DK points. With the Clippers struggling both in rebounding and in DRtg/A of late, this spot only becomes more attractive for Cousins.
Greg Monroe ($5,800 DK – $5,500 FD) – DK and FD have been quick to adjust Monroe’s price, but he’s still underpriced considering his recent run of minutes and production. Jason Kidd’s big man rotation is as mysterious as ever, but I don’t know how Kidd can take minutes away from Monroe when he’s playing like he is. I’m pretty sure we’ve all thought or said something along those lines before, so take it with a grain of salt. However, Greg has seen 27 or more minutes in four of his last five games, and in each of those four games, he has exceeded 30 FPTS with a high of 42 FPTS. I get it, there is some risk involved with the regular fluctuation of minutes, but I like this spot plenty. The Knicks rank 29th in C DvP and 25th in DRtg/A. If you were late to the Monroe party and choose to stay away once again, on your own head be it – though there are a few cheaper options that are also in play.
Others worth mentioning
Karl Anthony-Towns
Marc Gasol
DeAndre Jordan
Al Horford
Joel Embiid
Joakim Noah
Montrezl Harrell
Willie Reed
Tendencies To Exploit
“The Boxer” is one of my favorite songs written by Simon and Garfunkel. In that song, one verse reads, “all lies and jest – still a man hears what he wants to hear and he disregards the rest….” Those lyrics are profoundly true in life and in DFS. Reading an article for the sole purpose and hope of confirming things that you are leaning towards is a dangerous way to do research. That’s not to say that you’re wrong or that I’m right. Keep an open mind and be willing to hear something other than what you expect or want to hear. Simply put, don’t disregard the rest, both in life and in DFS.
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.