NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, October 26th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense.
Pace – Possessions per game.
DvP – Defense versus Position
Point Guard
Favorites
James Harden – Head coach Mike D’Antoni made it clear that James Harden is “basically” the point guard when he’s on the floor. Harden remains a SG on Fanduel, but is both PG and SG eligible on DK. The price is understandably lofty, but here are the numbers. Last season, the Lakers were the worst team in the NBA in DRtg/A at 111.92, and they also allowed the second most points to point guards per game with 48.87 (in case you were wondering, they also allowed the most points to SG’s in the league last season). The Lakers were average last season in terms of pace at 99.46, but the Rockets were fifth, and that is unlikely to decrease under D’Antoni. Meanwhile, Luke Walton is sure to handle things differently this season as he leads this young Lakers roster. Harden is going to be a nightly threat to lead the slate in raw points, and he’s someone you should consider fitting into your lineups.
Jeremy Lin – Linsanity is back in New York (Brooklyn), and he’s primed to play a big role on a team without a lot of scoring options. Lin has been tasked with taking more of a leadership role with the Nets this season, and that includes being their primary playmaker. Last season, the Celtics played at the second fastest pace in the NBA. Incredibly, the C’s also boasted the fifth best DRtg/A. That’s incredible, because typically teams that play at such a fast pace also allow more possessions to their opponents, which lowers their defensive metrics. However, Isaiah Thomas is not anything close to being an elite defender, and the Celtics will also be without Marcus Smart for the upcoming future. Lin should be able to get his shot, and he’ll take plenty tonight. He may see some Avery Bradley at times, but not enough to overly concern me. Also worth noting is that the three point shot is likely to be a massive part of Coach Kenny Atkinson’s offensive approach. This is a tournament play only, but one that is attractive to me.
Others worth mentioning
D’Angelo Russell
Russell Westbrook
Shooting Guard
Favorites
See James Harden
Will Barton – While Gary Harris figured to be the starter, he has been ruled out of tonight’s contest. This is a fantastic spot for whomever gets the start, and it should be Barton. The Pelicans are a favorable matchup in all three of our key trends (fifth worst in DRtg/A, eighth worst in SG PPG, and tenth in pace). One hiccup here is the potential for low usage on this offense with Jokic, Nurkic, and Gallo also being viable scoring options, but Barton is near 5k on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he is more than capable of putting up 5x salary tonight. New Orleans newcomers E’Twaun Moore and Buddy Hield are not anything close to being defensive stalwarts. I like this spot plenty.
Devin Booker – Booker has been hyped up all summer long after breaking out in his rookie campaign. While the ownership is sure to be high, there is so much to like in this spot. The Kings were the second worst defensive team against opposing shooting guards and owned a team DRtg/A of 108.77 (tenth worst). Not only is the matchup favorable, but both teams play at a fast pace. There is going to be a lot to like in this matchup, and Booker should lead the way for the Suns in terms of usage and true usage.
Others worth mentioning
I’ll Pass
DeMar DeRozan – KCP is a solid defender, and he should see plenty of DeMar tonight. While DeRozan is capable of getting his and is always a candidate to lead shooting guards in raw points, there are better spots in terms of the trends that we are looking closely at, especially after factoring in price.
Small Forward
Favorites
T.J. Warren – PJ Tucker is expected to return soon as he has been cleared, but for now, Warren is expected to start at small forward for the Suns. Warren should see somewhere around 30 minutes of action per game for the time being. The Kings and the Suns both played at a top four pace in the NBA last season, and both teams were in the bottom ten in DRtg/A. You may have noticed that this game is becoming a theme in this inaugural Trend Blend article (it will continue below). Warren average 0.80 FP/M last season, but the matchup is glorious and the O/U is the second highest of the night. When you consider Warren’s price and potential in this matchup, he becomes one of the best cheap plays at the SF position.
Jae Crowder – This game features another high over/under. Crowder looks to have one of the best matchups of anyone at the small forward position tonight. The Celtics hopes are high this season, and they play better at home. They should be able to have their way with the lowly Nets tonight. The Nets did play at the tenth slowest pace last season, but the Celtics played at the second fastest pace and should be able to dictate the game against Brooklyn and their (incredibly, in spite of their slower pace) second worst DRtg/A from last season. Crowder averaged over 28 FP/G last season, and he should be in a good spot to reach/exceed that number tonight. At his price of 5.4k on DK, he should easily reach value, especially if the Nets can keep this one somewhat respectable.
Others worth mentioning
Power Forward
Favorites
DeMarcus Cousins – This game (along with Houston @ LA Lakers) is one of the prime spots to attack on this evening’s slate. The Suns played respectable defense against both PF and C last season, but Tyson Chandler is another year removed from his prime (and his minutes are heavily in question as well), and Boogie owned the Suns front court last year with over 1.7 FP/M. Some may strictly look at DvP and write Cousins off, but we’re better than that!
Thaddeus Young – Young is one of my favorite cheaper options to target on DraftKings tonight. Last season, the Mavericks one glaring defensive weakness was against power forwards. Dirk Nowitzki can still ball on the offensive end, but his defense is very much a liability. This game has a solid O/U of 206.5, and may well go overlooked. The Pacers were right around average in pace last season, but may play at a quicker tempo under new head coach Nate McMillan. Dallas prefers to play at a slower tempo, but were league average in DRtg/A. Overall, this is a sneaky spot to target in tournaments tonight, especially on DK where Young is priced so affordably.
Others worth mentioning
Center
Favorites
Hassan Whiteside – Whiteside is one of my favorite Center plays tonight for a variety of reasons. The Orlando Magic were a sub average defense last season, and gave up the eighth most FPPG to opposing Centers. Nikola Vucevic is a strong offensive player, but is a very positive matchup for Hassan tonight. It remains to be seen how new Magic coach Frank Vogel will run things, but that Magic played at the 11th fastest pace in the NBA last season, while the Heat were one of the slowest paced teams. It’s true that this spot does not appear to be great in terms of pace, I’m willing to overlook that aspect because of projected usage for Whiteside. Wade is gone, Bosh may not play basketball this season if ever again, and Whiteside is the clear beneficiary (along with Goran Dragic). Expect Mr. Whiteside to fill up the stat sheet tonight, and all season long.
Nikola Jokic – Jokic is both power forward and center eligible on DK, but is only PF eligible on FanDuel. For FanDuel only players, this applies to you as well. Jokic is expected to play alongside Jusef Nurkic to begin the year, while Jokic will see most of his minutes at the four. The Pelicans were one of the ten best matchups for both PF and C last season, and their frontcourt personnel remains largely the same (Terrence Jones in, Ryan Anderson out). While foul trouble is a concern against Anthony Davis, but this spot meets all of our criteria in terms of DvP, pace (both teams were above average last season) and DRtg/A (Pelicans ranked fifth worst last season).
Others worth mentioning
Al Horford
Nikola Vucevic
Steven Adams
I’ll Pass
Karl-Anthony Towns – KAT is an absolute stud, but this isn’t the best spot for him. Marc Gasol may have a minutes restriction, but he looked good this preseason and has always been a very good defender. KAT certainly has the tools to dominate in any matchup, but there are better places to spend up on this slate, especially when factoring in pace, DvP and DRtg/A.
Tendencies To Exploit
Mike D’Antoni’s coaching style – D’Antoni has always been known as a strong offensive coach who is willing to sacrifice efficiency on the defensive end. He’s going to push the pace and utilize his playmakers, but his coaching style will create plenty of good looks/opportunity for opposing playmakers as well. Keep that in mind when building lineups tonight.
I welcome your thoughts and feedback as we look to make this article something useful for you throughout the NBA season.